Recontructing past climate from noisy data

Science

Volumn 306, Issue 5696, 2004, Pages 679-682

  Von Storch, Hans ^a   Zorita, Eduardo ^a   Jones, Julie M ^a   Dimitriev, Yegor ^a   González Rouco, Fidel ^b   Tett, Simon F B ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DATA REDUCTION; ESTIMATION; OCEANOGRAPHY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

MODEL SIMULATION; MULTIPROXY RECORDS; NOISY DATA; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (NH) TEMPERATURE;

CLIMATOLOGY;

DATA PROCESSING; PALEOCLIMATE; RECONSTRUCTION; TEMPERATURE;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE; DATA ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; GEOGRAPHY; NOISE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE;

EID: 7444254366     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1096109     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, Nature 392, 779 (1998).
2. M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759 (1999).
3. P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett, S. F. B. Tett, Holocene 8, 455 (1998).
4. J. Luterbacher, C. Schmutz, D. Gyalistras, E. Xoplaki, H. Wanner, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2745 (1999).
5. J. M. Jones, M. Widmann, J. Clim. 16, 3511 (2003).
6. P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, K. R. Briffa, Science 292, 662 (2001).
7. J. T. Houghton et al., Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001).
8. P. D. Jones, M. E. Mann, Rev. Geophys. 42, RG2002, 10.1029/2003RG000143 (2004).
9. E. Zorita et al., Meteorol. Z. 13, 271 (2004).
10. D. Rind et al., J. Clim. 17, 906 (2004).
11. T. J. Crowley, Science 289, 270 (2000).
12. S. Gerber et al., Clim. Dyn. 20, 281 (2003).
13. H. Goosse et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L06203, 10.1029/2003GL019140 (2004).
14. E. Bauer, M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, A. Huenerbein, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1276, 10.1029/2002GL016639 (2003).
15. J. Esper, E. R. Cook, F. H. Schweingruber, Science 295, 2250 (2002).
16. S. H. Huang, H. N. Pollack, P. Y. Shen, Nature 403, 756 (2000).
17. M. E. Mann, S. Rutherford, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 139, 10.1029/2001GL014554 (2002).
18. Materials and Methods are available as supporting material on Science Online.
19. For instance, the standard deviation of the MBH99 reconstructed NH temperature in the period of 1948 to 1980 is 0.9K, compared with 1.4K derived from the National Centers for Environmental Protection reanalysis or from the Jones et al. (26) NH gridded instrumental data.
20. H. von Storch, J. Clizm. 12, 3505 (1999).
21. Local noise could in many cases be expected to be either white or red. In any case, red noise degrades the reconstructions, as in (77).
22. J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, H. Wanner, Science 303, 1499 (2004).
23. S. Rutherford, M. E. Mann, T. L. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer, J. Clim. 16, 462 (2003).
24. E. Zorita, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, S. Legutke, J. Clim. 16, 1378 (2003).
25. T. J. Osborn, K. R. Briffa, Dendrochronologia 18, 9 (2000).
26. P. D. Jones, M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, I. C. Rigor, Rev. Geophys. 37, 173 (1999).
27. This work was earned out within the projects German Climate Research Program (DEKUM) [German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)]; Simulations, Observations, and Palaeoclimate data (SOAP) (European Union, EVK2-CT-2002-00160); and REN-2000-0786di (Comision Intel-ministerial de Ciencia y Tecnologia). S.F.B.T. was supported by a UK Government Meteorological Research contract and SOAP. Computer time for HadCM3 simulations was funded by Defra under contract PECD/7/12. Data distribution was through SOAP. Three anonymous reviewers greatly contributed to the improvement of the original manuscript. We acknowledge fruitful suggestions by T. Stocker.