Climate over the past two millennia

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Volumn 35, Issue , 2007, Pages 111-136

  Mann, Michael E ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic forcing; Climate change; Climate reconstruction; ENSO; Greenhouse gas forcing; NAO; Paleoclimate modeling; Radiative forcing; Solar forcing; Volcanic forcing

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DROUGHT; GREENHOUSE GASES;

ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING; CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION; PALEOCLIMATE MODELING; RADIATIVE FORCING; SOLAR FORCING; VOLCANIC FORCING;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GREENHOUSE GAS; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; PALEOCLIMATE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; RADIATIVE FORCING;

EID: 34250665757     PISSN: 00846597     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140042     Document Type: Review

References (83)

1. Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM. 2003. Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426:274-78
2. Andronova NG, Schlesinger ME, Mann ME. 2004. Are reconstructed pre-instrumental hemispheric temperatures consistent with instrumental hemispheric temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:L12202, doi:10.1029/2004GL019658
3. Bauer E, Claussen M, Brovkin V. 2003. Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:doi:10.1029/2002GL016639
4. Bell JL, Sloan LC, Revenaugh J, Duffy PB. 2003. Evaluation of Northern Hemisphere natural climate variability in multiple temperature reconstructions and global climate model simulations. Glob. Planet. Change 37:19-32
5. Bertrand C, Loutre MF, Crucifix M, Berger A. 2002. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study. Tellus 54A:221-44
6. Bradley RS. 1999. Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary. San Diego, CA: Academic. 2nd ed. 610 pp.
7. Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Diaz HF. 2003. Climate in Medieval time. Science 302:404-5
8. Bradley RS, Jones PD. 1993. "Little Ice Age" summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. Holocene 3:367-76
9. Braganza K, Karoly DJ, Hirst AC, Mann ME, Stott P, et al. 2003. Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - variability and correlation structure. Clim. Dyn. 20:491-502
10. Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, et al. 2001. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network. J. Geophys. Res. 106:2929-41
11. Burger G, Cubasch U. 2005. Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust? Geophys. Res. Lett. 32:L23711, doi:10.1029/2005GL024155
12. Burger G, Fast I, Cubasch U. 2006. Climate reconstruction by regression. Tellus 58A:227-35
13. Cobb KM, Charles CD, Cheng H, Edwards RL. 2003. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature 424:271-76
14. Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK. 1999. Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J. Clim. 12:1145-62
15. Cook ER, Woodhouse C, Meko DM, Stahle DW. 2004. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306:1015-18
16. Crowley TJ. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270-77
17. Crowley TJ, Baum SK, Kim KY, Hegerl GC, Hyde WT. 2003. Modeling ocean heat content changes during the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1932, doi:10.1029/2003GL017801
18. Crowley TJ, Kim KY. 1996. Comparison of proxy records of climate change and solar forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23:359-62
19. Crowley TJ, Kim KY. 1999. Modeling the temperature response to forced climate change over the last six centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26:1901-4
20. Crowley TJ, Lowery TS. 2000. How warm was the Medieval warm period? A comment on 'man-made versus natural climate change.' AMBIO 39:51-54
21. Cubasch U, Voss R, Hegerl GC, Waszkewitz J, Crowley TJ. 1997. Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Clim. Dyn. 13:757-67
22. Dahl-Jensen D, Mosegaard K, Gundestrup N, Clow GD, Johnsen SJ, et al. 1998. Past temperatures directly from the Greenland ice sheet. Science 282:268-71
23. Delworth TL, Mann ME. 2000. Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn. 16:661-76
24. Esper J, Cook ER, Schweingruber FH. 2002. Low-frequency signals in long tree-line chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:2250-53
25. 18O data using reduced space objective analysis. Paleoceanography 17:1007, doi:10.1029 /2000PA000590
26. Folland CK, Karl TR, Christy JR, Clarke RA, Gruza GV, et al. 2001. Observed Climate Variability and Change, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, ed. JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Noguer, PJ van der Linden, D Xiaosu, pp. 99-181. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press
27. Free M, Robock A. 1999. Global warming in the context of the Little Ice Age. J. Geophys. Res. 104:19057-70
28. Fritts HC, Blasing TJ, Hayden BP, Kutzbach JE. 1971. Multivariate techniques for specifying tree-growth and climate relationships and for reconstructing anomalies in paleoclimate. J. App. Met. 10:845-64
29. Gerber S, Joos F, Bruegger PP, Stocker TF, Mann ME, Sitch S. 2003. Constraining temperature variations over the last millennium by comparing simulated and observed atmospheric CO2. Clim. Dyn. 20:281-99
30. Gonzalez-Rouco F, Von Storch H, Zorita E. 2003. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:2116, doi:10.1029/ 2003GL018264
31. Goosse H, Arzel O, Luterbacher J, Mann ME, Renssen H, et al. 2006a. The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period." Clim. Past 2:99-113
32. Goosse H, Renssen H, Timmermann A, Bradley RS, Mann ME. 2006b. Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium. Clim. Dyn. 27:165-84
33. Hendy EJ, Gagan MK, Alibert CA, McCulloch MT, Lough JM, Isdale PJ. 2002. Abrupt decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface salinity at end of Little Ice Age. Science 295:1511-14
34. Huang S, Pollack HN, Shen PY. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperature. Nature 403:756-58
35. Hughes MK, Diaz H. 1994. Was there a "Medieval Warm Period" and if so, where and when? Clim. Chang. 26:109-42
36. Jansen E, Koc N. 2000. Century to decadal scale records of Norwegian sea surface temperature variations of the past 2 millennia. PAGES Newslett. 8:13-14
37. Jones PD, Briffa KR, Barnett TP, Tett SFB. 1998. High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control run temperatures. Holocene 8:477-83
38. Jones PD, Mann ME. 2004. Climate over past millennia. Rev. Geophys. 42:RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143
39. Keigwin LD. 1996. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea. Science 274:1504-8
40. Keigwin LD, Pickart RS. 1999. Slope water current over the Laurentian Fan on interannual to millennial time scales. Science 286:520-23
41. Laird KR, Fritz SC, Maasch KA, Cumming BF. 1996. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Northern Great Plains. Nature 384:552-54
42. Lamb HH. 1965. The early Medieval warm epoch and its sequel. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 1:13-37
43. Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Warmer H. 2004. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303:1499-503
44. Luterbacher J, Schmutz C, Gyalistras D, Xoplaki E, Wanner H. 1999. Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 167 5. Geopbys. Res. Lett. 26:2745-48
45. Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Rickli R, Jacobeit J, et al. 2002. Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Clim. Dyn. 18:545-61
46. Mann ME, Ammann CM, Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Crowley TJ, et al. 2003. On past temperatures and anomalous late twentieth century warmth. EOS 84:256-58
47. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK. 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779-87
48. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK. 1999. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26:759-62
49. Mann ME, Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Clement A. 2005a. Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years. J. Clim. 18:447-56
50. Mann ME, Gille E, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Overpeck JT, et al. 2000. Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An interactive presentation. Earth Interact. 4-4:1-29
51. Mann ME, Jones PD. 2003. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1820, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017814
52. Mann ME, Park J, Bradley RS. 1995. Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries. Nature 378:266-70
53. Mann ME, Rutherford S. 2002. Climate reconstruction using 'pseudoproxies.' Geophys. Res. Lett. 29:1501, doi: 10.1029/ 2001GL014554
54. Mann ME, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes ME, Keimig FT. 2003. Optimal surface temperature reconstructions using terrestrial borehole data. J. Geophys. Res. 108:4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532
55. Mann ME, Rutherford S, Wahl E, Ammann C. 2005b. Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate. J. Clim. 18:4097-107
56. Mann ME, Rutherford S, Wahl E, Ammann C. 2006a. Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods. J. Geophys. Res. In press
57. Mann ME, Rutherford S, Wahl E, Ammann C. 2006b. Reply to comment by Zorita et al. on Mann, Rutherford, Wahl and Ammann (2005). J. Clim. In press
58. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W. 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613-17
59. Moy C, Seltzer GO, Rodbell DT, Anderson DM. 2002. Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch. Nature 420:162-65
60. Noren AJ, Blerman PR, Steig EJ, Lini A, Southon J. 2002. Millenial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch. Nature 419:821-24
61. Oerlemans J. 2005. Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308:675-77
62. Osborn TJ, Briffa KR. 2006. The spatial extent of twentieth-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311:841-44
63. Osborn TJ, Raper SCB, Briffa KR. 2006. Simulated climate change during the last 1000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model. Clim. Dyn. 27:185-97
64. Overpeck J, Hughen K, Hardy D, Bradley R, Case R, et al. 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 278:1251-56
65. Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, Wanner H. 2006. 500 years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Clim. Dyn. 26:387-405
66. Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Wanner H. 2003. Evaluation of proxies for European and North Atlantic temperature field reconstructions. Geophy. Res. Lett. 30:1787, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017589
67. Rahmstorf S. 2006. Testing climate reconstructions. Science 312:1872
68. Rimbu N, Lohmann G, Kim JH, Arz HW, Schneider R. 2003. Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation signature in Holocene sea surface. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:doi: 10.1029/2002GL016570
69. Rind D, Overpeck J. 1993. Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: climate model results. Quat. Sci. Rev. 12:357-74
70. Ruddiman WF. 2001. Earth's Climate, Past and Future. New York: Freeman. 465 pp.
71. Rutherford S, Mann ME, Delworth TL, Stouffer R. 2003. Climate field reconstruction under stationary and nonstationary forcing. J. Clim. 16:462-79
72. Rutherford S, Mann ME, Osborn TJ, Bradley RS, Briffa KR, et al. 2005. Proxybased Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: sensitivity to methodology, predictor network, target season and target domain. J. Clim. 18:2308-29
73. Schmidt GA, Shindell DT, Miller RL, Mann ME, Rind D. 2004. General circulation modeling of Holocene climate variability. Quat. Sci. Rev. 23:2167-81
74. Schneider T. 2001. Analysis of incomplete climate data: estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values. J. Clim. 14:853-71
75. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann ME, Faluvegi G. 2004. Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600. J. Geophys. Res. 109:D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151
76. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann ME, Rind D, Waple A. 2001. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Science 294:2149-52
77. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Miller R, Mann ME. 2003. Volcanic and solar forcing of climate change during the pre-industrial era. J. Clim. 16:4094-107
78. Stahle DW, D'Arrigo RD, Krusic PJ, Cleaveland MK, Cook ER, et al. 1998. Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 79:2137-52
79. Verschuren D, Laird KR, Cumming BF. 2000. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1100 years. Nature 403:410-14
80. Von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones JM, Dimitriev Y, Gonzalez-Rouco F, Tett SFB. 2004. Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306:679-82
81. Von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones JM, Gonzalez-Rouco F, Tett SFB. 2006. Response to comment on 'Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data.' Science 312:529c
82. Wahl ER, Ritson DM, Ammann CM. 2006. Comment on 'Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data.' Science 312:529b
83. Zhang Z, Mann ME, Cook ER. 2004. Alternative methods of proxy-based climate field reconstruction: application to the reconstruction of summer drought over the conterminous United States back to 1700 from drought-sensitive tree ring data. Holocene 14:502-16