Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use: Implications for Environmental Health and Food Security

Annual Review of Plant Biology

Volumn 69, Issue , 2018, Pages 789-815

  Ramankutty, Navin ^a   Mehrabi, Zia ^a   Waha, Katharina ^b   Jarvis, Larissa ^a   Kremen, Claire ^c   Herrero, Mario ^b   Rieseberg, Loren H ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Environment; Food production; Food security; Land use

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; BIODIVERSITY; CATERING SERVICE; ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; HISTORY;

AGRICULTURE; BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH; FOOD SUPPLY; HISTORY, 18TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 19TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY;

EID: 85046132548     PISSN: 15435008     EISSN: 15452123     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040256     Document Type: Review

References (177)

1. Aguilar J, Gramig GG, Hendrickson JR, ArcherDW, Forcella F, Liebig MA. 2015. Crop species diversity changes in the United States: 1978-2012. PLOS ONE 10:e0136580
2. Aide TM, Clark ML, Grau HR, Ĺopez-Carr D, Levy MA, et al. 2013. Deforestation and reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001-2010). Biotropica 45:262-71
3. Aizen MA, Garibaldi LA, Cunningham SA, Klein AM. 2008. Long-term global trends in crop yield and production reveal no current pollination shortage but increasing pollinator dependency. Curr. Biol. 18:1572-75
4. Alavanja MCR, Ross MK, Bonner MR. 2013. Increased cancer burden among pesticide applicators and others due to pesticide exposure. CA Cancer J. Clin. 63:120-42
5. Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESAWork. Pap. No. 12-03, Agric. Dev. Econ. Div., Food Agric. Organ., United Nations, Rome
6. Alston JM, Babcock BA, Pardey PG, eds. 2010. The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide. CARD Books, Book 2 Ames, IA: Midwest Agribus. Trade Res. Inf. Cent. 482 pp. http://lib. dr. iastate. edu/card-books/2
7. Angelsen A, Kaimowitz D, eds. 2001. Agricultural Technologies and Tropical Deforestation. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publ., Cent. Int. For. Res. 422 pp.
8. Ausubel JH, Wernick IK, Waggoner PE. 2013. Peak farmland and the prospect for land sparing. Popul. Dev. Rev. 38:221-42
9. Awokuse TO, Xie R. 2015. Does agriculture really matter for economic growth in developing countries? Can. J. Agric. Econ. 63:77-99
10. Baccini A, Goetz SJ, Walker WS, Laporte NT, Sun M, et al. 2012. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nat. Clim. Change 2:182-85
11. Badgley C, Perfecto I, Chappell M, Samulon A. 2007. Strengthening the case for organic agriculture: response to Alex Avery. Renew. Agric. Food Syst. 22:323-24
12. Barrett CB. 2010. Measuring food insecurity. Science 327:825-28
13. Beal T, Massiot E, Arsenault JE, Smith MR, Hijmans RJ. 2017. Global trends in dietary micronutrient supplies and estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes. PLOS ONE 12:1-20
14. Ben-Ari T, MakowskiD. 2016. Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale. Environ. Res. Lett. 11:104005
15. Bennett AJ, Bending GD, Chandler D, Hilton S, Mills P. 2012. Meeting the demand for crop production: the challenge of yield decline in crops grown in short rotations. Biol. Rev. 87:52-71
16. Bennetzen EH, Smith P, Porter JR. 2016. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050. Glob. Change Biol. 22:763-81
17. Bevan MW, Uauy C, Wulff BBH, Zhou J, Krasileva K, Clark MD. 2017. Genomic innovation for crop improvement. Nature 543:346-54
18. Borlaug N. 2007. Feeding a hungry world. Science 318:359
19. Bramley RGV. 2009. Lessons from nearly 20 years of Precision Agriculture research, development, and adoption as a guide to its appropriate application. Crop. Pasture Sci. 60:197-217
20. Brittain C, Potts SG. 2011. The potential impacts of insecticides on the life-history traits of bees and the consequences for pollination. Basic Appl. Biol. 12:321-31
21. Brooker RW, Bennett AE, Cong W-F, Daniell TJ, George TS, et al. 2015. Improving intercropping: a synthesis of research in agronomy, plant physiology and ecology. New Phytol. 206:107-17
22. Brooker RW, Maestre FT, Callaway RM, Lortie CL, Cavieres LA, et al. 2008. Facilitation in plant communities: the past, the present, and the future. J. Ecol. 96:18-34
23. Bullock DS, Ruffo ML, Bullock DG, Bollero GA. 2009. The value of variable rate technology: an information-theoretic approach. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 91:209-23
24. Burney JA, Naylor RL, Postel SL. 2013. The case for distributed irrigation as a development priority in sub-Saharan Africa. PNAS 110:12513-17
25. Capper JL, Cady RA, Bauman DE. 2009. The environmental impact of dairy production: 1944 compared with 2007. J. Anim. Sci. 87:2160-67
26. CarlsonKM, Gerber JS, MuellerND, HerreroM, MacDonaldGK, et al. 2016. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands. Nat. Clim. Change 7:1-34
27. Carpenter S, Caraco NF, Correll DL, HowarthRW, Sharpley AN, SmithVH. 1998. Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorus and nitrogen. Issues Ecol. 4:1-12
28. Cassidy ES, West PC, Gerber JS, Foley JA. 2013. Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare. Environ. Res. Lett. 8:034015
29. Cassman KG, Dobermann A, Walters DT, Yang H. 2003. Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 28:315-58
30. Castañeda-Álvarez NP, Khoury CK, Achicanoy HA, Bernau V, Dempewolf H, et al. 2016. Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nat. Plants 2:16022
31. Connor DJ, Mínguez MI. 2012. Evolution not revolution of farming systems will best feed and green the world. Glob. Food Secur. 1:106-13
32. Davis DR, EppMD, Riordan HD. 2004. Changes in USDA food composition data for 43 garden crops, 1950 to 1999. J. Am. Coll. Nutr. 23:669-82
33. Davis KF, Yu K, Herrero M, Havlik P, Carr JA, D'Odorico P. 2015. Historical trade-offs of livestock's environmental impacts. Environ. Res. Lett. 10:125013
34. de Vries FT, Liiri ME, Bjørnlund L, Setälä HM, Christensen S, Bardgett RD. 2012. Legacy effects of drought on plant growth and the soil food web. Oecologia 170:821-33
35. Deepak KR, Jonathan AF. 2013. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions. Environ. Res. Lett. 8:044041
36. DelgadoC, Rosegrant M, SteinfeldH, Ehui S, CourboisC. 1999. Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution. Discuss. Pap. No. 28, Food, Agric. Environ. Div., Int. Food Policy Res. Inst., Washington, DC
37. Desneux N, Decourtye A, Delpuech J-M. 2007. The sublethal effects of pesticides on beneficial arthropods. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 52:81-106
38. Despommier D. 2011. The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century. London: Picador
39. Di Cesare M, Bentham J, Stevens GA, Zhou B, Danaei G, et al. 2016. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19. 2 million participants. Lancet 387:1377-96
40. Diaz RJ, Rosenberg R. 2008. Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems. Science 321:926-29
41. Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS, Horton DE, Swain DL, et al. 2017. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. PNAS 114:4881-86
42. Doll P, Schmied HM, Schuh C, Portmann FT, Eicker A. 2014. Global-scale assessment of groundwater depletion and related groundwater abstractions: combining hydrological modeling with information from well observations and GRACE satellites. Water Resourc. Res. 50:5375-77
43. Ellis EC, Ramankutty N. 2008. Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world. Front. Ecol. Environ. 6:439-47
44. Erb K-H, Lauk C, Kastner T, Mayer A, Theurl MC, Haberl H. 2016. Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation. Nat. Commun. 7:11382
45. Erisman JW, Sutton MA, Galloway J, Klimont Z, Winiwarter W. 2008. How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world. Nat. Geosci. 1:636-39
46. Evenson RE, Gollin D. 2003. Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000. Science 300:758-62
47. Evenson RE, Gollin D, eds. 2003. Crop Variety Improvement and Its Effect on Productivity: The Impact of International Agricultural Research. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publ. 522 pp.
48. Ewers RM, Scharlemann JPW, Balmford A, Green RE. 2009. Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature? Glob. Change Biol. 15:1716-26
49. Fedoroff NV, Battisti DS, Beachy RN, Cooper PJM, Fischhoff DA, et al. 2010. Radically rethinking agriculture for the 21st century. Science 327:833-34
50. Figueres C, Schellnhuber HJ, Whiteman G, Rockström J, Hobley A, Rahmstorf S. 2017. Three years to safeguard our climate. Nature 546:593-95
51. Fischer J, Abson DJ, Butsic V, Chappell MJ, Ekroos J, et al. 2014. Land sparing versus land sharing: moving forward. Conserv. Lett. 7:149-57
52. Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, et al. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337-42
53. Food Agric. Organ. 2008. An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security. Rome: Food Agric. Organ.
54. Food Agric. Organ. /Int. Fund Agric. Dev. /World Food Progr. 2015. The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Meeting the 2015 International Hunger Targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress. Rome: Food Agric. Organ.
55. Fraser E, Legwegoh A, KC K, CoDyre M, Dias G, et al. 2016. Biotechnology or organic? Extensive or intensive? Global or local? A critical review of potential pathways to resolve the global food crisis. Trends Food Sci. Technol. 48:78-87
56. Frelat R, Lopez-Ridaura S, Giller KE, Herrero M, Douxchamps S, et al. 2015. Drivers of household food availability in sub-Saharan Africa based on big data from small farms. PNAS 113:458-63
57. Fuglie K, Wang SL. 2012. Productivity growth in global agriculture. Popul. Dev. Rev. 27:361-65
58. Funk C, Rainie L. 2015. Public and scientists' views on science and society. Pew Res. Cent., Jan. 29
59. Garibaldi LA, Carvalheiro LG, Vaissiere BE, Gemmill-Herren B, Hipolito J, et al. 2016. Mutually beneficial pollinator diversity and crop yield outcomes in small and large farms. Science 351:388-91
60. Garibaldi LA, Steffan-Dewenter I, Kremen C, Morales JM, Bommarco R, et al. 2011. Stability of pollination services decreases with isolation from natural areas despite honey bee visits. Ecol. Lett. 14:1062-72
61. George R, McFarlane D, Nulsen B. 1997. Salinity threatens the viability of agriculture and ecosystems in Western Australia. Hydrogeol. J. 5:6-21
62. Gibbs HK, Ruesch AS, Achard F, Clayton MK, Holmgren P, et al. 2010. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. PNAS 107:16732-37
63. Gibson L, Lee TM, Koh LP, Brook BW, Gardner TA, et al. 2011. Primary forests are irreplaceable for sustaining tropical biodiversity. Nature 478:378-81
64. Gilbert M, Conchedda G, Van Boeckel TP, Cinardi G, Linard C, et al. 2015. Income disparities and the global distribution of intensively farmed chicken and pigs. PLOS ONE 10:e0133381
65. Glover JD, Reganold JP, Bell LW, Borevitz J, Brummer EC, et al. 2010. Increased food and ecosystem security via perennial grains. Science 328:1638-39
66. Grau R, Kuemmerle T, Macchi L. 2013. Beyond "land sparing versus land sharing": environmental heterogeneity, globalization and the balance between agricultural production and nature conservation. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 5:477-83
67. Green RE, Cornell SJ, Scharlemann JPW, Balmford A. 2005. Farming and the fate of wild nature. Science 307:550-55
68. GriggDB. 1987. Theindustrial revolution and land transformation. In Land Transformation inAgriculture, ed. MGWolman, FGA Fournier, pp. 79-109. Chichester, UK: JohnWiley &Sons
69. Gurr GM, Lu Z, Zheng X, Xu H, Zhu P, et al. 2016. Multi-country evidence that crop diversification promotes ecological intensification of agriculture. Nat. Plants 2:16014
70. Haddad NM, Brudvig LA, Clobert J, Davies KF, Gonzalez A, et al. 2015. Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth's ecosystems. Sci. Adv. 1:1-9
71. Halweil B. 2002. Home grown: the case for local food in a global market. Pap. 163, Worldwatch Inst., Washington, DC
72. Hart JF. 1968. Loss and abandonment of cleared farm land in the eastern United States. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 58:417-40
73. Herrero M, Havlík P, Valin H, Notenbaert A, Rufino MC, et al. 2013. Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems. PNAS 110:20888-93
74. Herrero M, Thornton PK, Notenbaert AM, Wood S, Msangi S, et al. 2010. Smart investments in sustainable food production: revisiting mixed crop-livestock systems. Science 327:822-25
75. Herrero M, Thornton PK, Power B, Bogard JR, Remans R, et al. 2017. Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 1:e33-42
76. Hertel TW, Ramankutty N, Baldos ULC. 2014. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions. PNAS 111:13799-804
77. Hoekstra AY, Mekonnen MM. 2012. The water footprint of humanity. PNAS 109:3232-37
78. Hunter MC, Hunter MC, Smith RG, Schipanski ME, Atwood LW. 2017. Agriculture in 2050: recalibrating targets for sustainable intensification. Bioscience 67:385-90
79. Iizumi T, Ramankutty N. 2016. Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981-2010 explained by climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11:034003
80. Ingram J. 2011. A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change. Food Secur. 3:417-31
81. Isbell F, Adler PR, EisenhauerN, Fornara D, KimmelK, et al. 2017. Benefits of increasing plant diversity in sustainable agroecosystems. J. Ecol. 105:871-79
82. Iverson AL, Marín LE, Ennis KK, Gonthier DJ, Connor-Barrie BT, et al. 2014. Dopolycultures promote win-wins or trade-offs in agricultural ecosystem services? A meta-analysis. J. Appl. Ecol. 51:1593-602
83. Jarvis DI, Brown AHD, Cuong PH, Collado-Panduro L, Latournerie-Moreno L, et al. 2008. A global perspective of the richness and evenness of traditional crop-variety diversity maintained by farming communities. PNAS 105:5326-31
84. Kemper N. 2008. Veterinary antibiotics in the aquatic and terrestrial environment. Ecol. Indic. 8:1-13
85. Kissinger G, Herold M, De Sy V. 2012. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers. Vancouver, Can. : Lexeme Consult.
86. Kremen C. 2005. Managing ecosystem services: What do we need to know about their ecology? Ecol. Lett. 8:468-79
87. Kremen C. 2015. Reframing the land-sparing/land-sharing debate for biodiversity conservation. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1355:52-76
88. Kremen C, Miles A. 2012. Ecosystem services in biologically diversified versus conventional farming systems: benefits, externalities, and trade-offs. Ecol. Soc. 17:40
89. Kummu M, de Moel H, Porkka M, Siebert S, Varis O, Ward PJ. 2012. Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use. Sci. Total Environ. 438:477-89
90. Lang T, Barling D. 2012. Food security and food sustainability: reformulating the debate. Geogr. J. 178:313-26
91. Larsen TH, Williams NM, Kremen C. 2005. Extinction order and altered community structure rapidly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecol. Lett. 8:538-47
92. Lepers E, Lambin EF, Janetos AC, DeFries R, Achard F, et al. 2005. A synthesis of information on rapid land-cover change for the period 1981-2000. Bioscience 55:115-24
93. Lesk C, Rowhani P, Ramankutty N. 2016. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature 529:84-87
94. Letourneau DK, Armbrecht I, Rivera BS, Lerma J, Carmona EJ, et al. 2011. Does plant diversity benefit agroecosystems? A synthetic review. Ecol. Appl. 21:9-21
95. Lin BB. 2011. Resilience in agriculture through crop diversification: adaptive management for environmental change. BioScience 61:183-93
96. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J. 2011. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616-20
97. Lowder SK, Skoet J, Raney T. 2016. The number, size, and distribution of farms, smallholder farms, and family farms worldwide. World Dev. 87:16-29
98. Manning P. 2012. The impact of nitrogen enrichment on ecosystems and their services. In Soil Ecology and Ecosystem Services, ed. DH Wall, RD Bardgett, V Behan-Pelletier, JE Herrick, TH Jones, et al., pp. 256-67. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
99. McBratney A, Whelan B, Ancev T, Bouma J. 2005. Future directions of precision agriculture. Precis. Agric. 6:7-23
100. McNeill JR. 2000. An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World. New York: WWNorton. 421 pp.
101. McNeill JR, Winiwarter V. 2004. Breaking the sod: humankind, history, and soil. Science 304:1627-29
102. Micklin P. 2007. The Aral Sea disaster. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 35:47-72
103. Moreno-Mateos D, Barbier EB, Jones PC, Jones HP, Aronson J, et al. 2017. Anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance and the recovery debt. Nat. Commun. 8:14163
104. Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA. 2012. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490:254-57
105. Neuschulz EL, Mueller T, Schleuning M, Böhning-Gaese K. 2016. Pollination and seed dispersal are the most threatened processes of plant regeneration. Sci. Rep. 6:29839
106. Newbold T, Bennett DJ, Choimes A, Collen B, Day J, et al. 2015. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520:45-50
107. Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, Thomson B, Graetz N, et al. 2014. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 6736:1-16
108. Oldeman LR. 1994. Global extent of soil degradation. In ISRIC Bi-Annual Report 1991-92, pp. 19-36. Wageningen, Neth. : ISRIC
109. Osborne TM, Wheeler TR. 2013. Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years. Environ. Res. Lett. 8:024001
110. Parton WJ, Gutmann MP, Merchant ER, HartmanMD, Adler PR, et al. 2015. Measuring and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production in the US Great Plains, 1870-2000. PNAS 112:E4681-88
111. Pereira HM, Navarro LM, Martins IS. 2012. Global biodiversity change: the bad, the good, and the unknown. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 37:25-50
112. Phalan B, Green RE, Dicks LV, Dotta G, Feniuk C, et al. 2016. How can higher-yield farming help to spare nature? Science 351:450-51
113. Poffenbarger H, Artz G, Dahlke G, EdwardsW, Hanna M, et al. 2017. An economic analysis of integrated crop-livestock systems in Iowa, U. S. A. Agric. Syst. 157:51-69
114. Ponisio LC, M'Gonigle LK, Mace KC, Palomino J, de Valpine P, Kremen C. 2015. Diversification practices reduce organic to conventional yield gap. Proc. R. Soc. B 282:1-7
115. Potts SG, Biesmeijer JC, Kremen C, Neumann P, Schweiger O, Kunin WE. 2010. Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25:345-53
116. Quinton J, Govers G, van Oost K, Bardgett RD. 2010. The impact of agricultural soil erosion on biogeochemical cycling. Nat. Geosci. 3:311-14
117. Ramankutty N, Evan AT, Monfreda C, Foley JA. 2008. Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22:GB1003
118. Ramankutty N, Foley JA. 1999. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 13:997-1027
119. Ramankutty N, Foley JA, Norman J, McSweeney K. 2002. The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 11:377-92
120. Ramankutty N, Heller E, Rhemtulla J. 2010. Prevailing myths about agricultural abandonment and forest regrowth in the United States. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 100:502-12
121. Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC. 2015. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat. Commun. 6:5989
122. Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA. 2013. Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050. PLOS ONE 8:e66428
123. Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA. 2012. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat. Commun. 3:1293
124. Redman C. 1999. Human Impact on Ancient Environments. Tucson: Univ. Ariz. Press. 288 pp.
125. Richards JF. 1990. Land transformation. In The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, ed. BL Turner, WCClark, RWKates, JF Richards, JTMathews, WBMeyer, pp. 163-78. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
126. Rodell M, Velicogna I, Famiglietti JS. 2009. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460:999-1002
127. Romeu-Dalmau C, Bonsall MB, Willis KJ, Dolan L. 2015. Asiatic cotton can generate similar economic benefits to Bt cotton under rainfed conditions. Nat. Plants 1:15072
128. Ronald PC, Adamchak RW. 2008. Tomorrow's Table: Organic Farming, Genetics, and the Future of Food. New York: Oxford Univ. Press. 232 pp.
129. Rudel TK, Schneider L, Uriarte M, Turner BL, DeFries R, et al. 2009. Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970-2005. PNAS 106:20675-80
130. Ryschawy J, ChoisisN, Choisis J-P, Gibon A. 2013. Paths to last inmixed crop-livestock farming: lessons from an assessment of farm trajectories of change. Animal 7:673-81
131. SatterthwaiteD, McGranahanG, Tacoli C. 2010. Urbanization and its implications for food and farming. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 365:2809-20
132. Schierhorn F, Müller D, Beringer T, Prishchepov AV, Kuemmerle T, Balmann A. 2013. Post-Soviet cropland abandonment and carbon sequestration in European Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 27:1175-85
133. Seto KC, Ramankutty N. 2016. Hidden linkages between urbanization and food systems. Science 352:943-45
134. Seufert V, Ramankutty N. 2017. Many shades of gray\-The context-dependent performance of organic agriculture. Sci. Adv. 3:e1602638
135. Siebert S, Doll P. 2010. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. J. Hydrol. 384:198-217
136. Siegel KR, Ali MK, Srinivasiah A, Nugent RA, Narayan KMV. 2014. Do we produce enough fruits and vegetables to meet global health need? PLOS ONE 9:e104059
137. Simmons IG. 1987. Transformation of the land in pre-industrial time. In Land Transformation in Agriculture, ed. MG Wolman, FGA Fournier, pp. 45-77. Chichester, UK: JohnWiley &Sons
138. Smith LC, Haddad L. 2015. Reducing child undernutrition: past drivers and priorities for the post-MDG era. World Dev. 68:180-204
139. Smith P, Bustamante M, Ahammad H, Clark H, Dong H, et al. 2014. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution ofWorkingGroup III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. OR Edenhofer, MPichs, Y Sokona, E Farahani, S Kadner, et al., pp. 811-922. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
140. Spera SA, Cohn AS, Vanwey LK, Mustard JF, Rudorff BF, et al. 2014. Recent cropping frequency, expansion, and abandonment in Mato Grosso, Brazil had selective land characteristics. Environ. Res. Lett. 9:12
141. Stangel PJ. 1993. Nutrient cycling and its importance in sustaining crop-livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview. In Livestock and Sustainable Nutrient Cycling in Mixed Farming Systems of sub-Saharan Africa. Volume I: Conference Summary, pp. 43-65. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: International Livestock Centre for Africa
142. Stanley DA, GarrattMPD, Wickens JB, WickensVJ, Potts SG, RaineNE. 2015. Neonicotinoid pesticide exposure impairs crop pollination services provided by bumblebees. Nature 528:548-50
143. SteffenW, Richardson K, Rockström J, Cornell SE, Fetzer I, et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347:1259855
144. Stehfest E, Bouwman L, van Vuuren DP, den Elzen MGJ, Eickhout B, Kabat P. 2009. Climate benefits of changing diet. Clim. Change 95:83-102
145. Stevens CJ, Dise NB, Mountford JO, Gowing DJ. 2004. Impact of nitrogen deposition on the species richness of grasslands. Science 303:1876-79
146. Stevenson JR, Villoria N, Byerlee D, Kelley T, Maredia M. 2013. Green Revolution research saved an estimated 18 to 27million hectares from being brought into agricultural production. PNAS 110:8363-68
147. Stewart WM, Dibb DW, Johnston AE, Smyth TJ. 2005. The contribution of commercial fertilizer nutrients to food production. Agron. J. 97:1-6
148. Storkey J, Macdonald AJ, Poulton PR, Scott T, Köhler IH, et al. 2015. Grassland biodiversity bounces back from long-term nitrogen addition. Nature 528:401-4
149. Swinburn BA, SacksG, Hall KD, McPherson K, Finegood DT, et al. 2011. The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments. Lancet 378:804-14
150. Ter C. 2012. Soil productivity and erosion. In Soil Ecology and Ecosystem Services, ed. DH Wall, RD Bardgett, V Behan-Pelletier, JE Herrick, H Jones, et al., pp. 301-14. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
151. Thornton PK, Herrero M. 2015. Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Nat. Clim. Change 5:830-36
152. Tilman D. 1999. Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: the need for sustainable and efficient practices. PNAS 96:5995-6000
153. Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. PNAS 108:20260-64
154. Tilman D, CassmanKG, Matson PA, Naylor R, Polasky S. 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418:671-77
155. Tilman D, Clark M. 2014. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health. Nature 515:518-22
156. Tilman D, Fargione J, Wolff B, D'Antonio C, Dobson A, et al. 2001. Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science 292:281-84
157. Tiwari S, Daidone S, RuvalcabaMA, Prifti E, Handa S, et al. 2016. Impact of cash transfer programs on food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-country analysis. Glob. Food Secur. 11:72-83
158. Tollenaar M, Lee EA. 2002. Yield potential, yield stability and stress tolerance in maize. Field Crops Res. 75:161-69
159. Tomlinson I. 2013. Doubling food production to feed the 9 billion: a critical perspective on a key discourse of food security in the UK. J. Rural Stud. 29:81-90
160. Tsiafouli MA, Thébault E, Sgardelis SP, de Ruiter PC, van der Putten WH, et al. 2015. Intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity across Europe. Glob. Change Biol. 21:973-85
161. Tuck SL, Winqvist C, Mota F, Ahnström J, Turnbull LA, Bengtsson J. 2014. Land-use intensity and the effects of organic farming on biodiversity: a hierarchical meta-analysis. J. Appl. Ecol. 51:746-55
162. Tulchinsky TH. 2010. Micronutrient deficiency conditions: global health issues. Public Health Rev. 32:243-55
163. Turner BL, Clark WC, Kates RW, Richards JF, Mathews JT, Meyer WB, eds. 1990. The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press. 713 pp.
164. Turner BL II, McCandless S. 2004. How humankind came to rival nature: a brief history of the humanenvironment condition and the lessons learned. In Earth System Analysis for Sustainability: DahlemWorkshop Report No. 91, ed. WC Clark, P Crutzen, H-J Schellnhuber, pp. 227-43. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
165. United Nations. 2017. World population prospects: the 2017 revision, key findings and advance tables. Work. Pap. No. ESA/P/WP/248, Dep. Econ. Soc. Aff., Popul. Div., New York
166. US Dep. Agric. 2017. Crop Production: Historical Track Records. Washington, DC:Natl. Agric. Stat. Serv., US Dep. Agric.
167. van de Wouw M, van Hintum T, Kik C, van Treuren R, Visser B. 2010. Genetic diversity trends in twentieth century crop cultivars: a meta analysis. Theor. Appl. Genet. 120:1241-52
168. Vandermeer J, Perfecto I. 2007. The agricultural matrix and a future paradigm for conservation. Conserv. Biol. 21:274-77
169. Veresoglou SD, Barto EK, Menexes G, Rillig MC. 2013. Fertilization affects severity of disease caused by fungal plant pathogens. Plant Pathol. 62:961-69
170. Vitousek PM, Aber JD, Howarth RW, Likens GE, Matson PA, et al. 1997. Human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle: sources and consequences. Ecol. Appl. 7:737-50
171. Waggoner PE. 1994. How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature? Ames, IA: Counc. Agric. Sci. Technol.
172. Waggoner PE. 1995. How much land can ten billion people spare for nature? Does technology make a difference? Technol. Soc. 17:17-34
173. West PC, Gerber JS, Engstrom PM, Mueller ND, Brauman KA, et al. 2014. Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment. Science 345:325-28
174. West PC, Gibbs HK, Monfreda C, Wagner J, Barford CC, et al. 2010. Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks versus crop yields on agricultural land. PNAS 107:19645-48
175. Williams M. 1989. Americans and Their Forests: A Historical Geography. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press. 599 pp.
176. Wittman H. 2011. Food sovereignty: a new rights framework for food and nature? Environ. Soc. Adv. Res. 2:87-105
177. World Bank. 2017. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://data. worldbank. org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators