A review of drought in the Middle East and southwest Asia

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 23, 2016, Pages 8547-8574

  Barlow, Mathew ^a   Zaitchik, Benjamin ^b   Paz, Shlomit ^c   Black, Emily ^d   Evans, Jason ^e   Hoell, Andrew ^f  

^a University of Massachusetts Lowell   (United States)

^b JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA   (Israel)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^f UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; Drought; Dynamics

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DYNAMICS; STORMS; VEGETATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; DROUGHT FORECASTING; DYNAMICAL MECHANISMS; EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN; FEEDBACK MECHANISMS; TEMPERATURE INCREASE; VEGETATION FEEDBACKS;

DROUGHT;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; DROUGHT; EVAPORATION; LA NINA; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; WATER STRESS;

ASIA; MIDDLE EAST;

EID: 84996922090     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1     Document Type: Article

References (192)

1. Adames, Á. F., and J. M. Wallace, 2014: Three-dimensional structure and evolution of the MJO and its relation to the mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2007-2026, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0254.1
2. Agrawala, S., M. Barlow, H. Cullen, and B. Lyon, 2001: The drought and humanitarian crisis in central and southwest Asia: A climate perspective. IRI Rep. 01-11, 24 pp
3. Aizen, E. M., V. B. Aizen, J. M. Melack, T. Nakamura, and T. Ohta, 2001: Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid-latitudes of Asia. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 535-556, doi:10.1002/joc.626
4. Aizen, V. B., V. A. Kuzmichenok, A. B. Surazakov, and E. M. Aizen, 2006: Glacier changes in the central and northern Tien Shan during the last 140 years based on surface and remote-sensing data. Ann. Glaciol., 43, 202-213, doi:10.3189/172756406781812465
5. Aizen, V. B., E. M. Aizen, and V. A. Kuzmichenok, 2007: Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: Simulation and prediction. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 045019, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045019
6. Alijani, B., 2008: Effect of the Zagros Mountains on the spatial distribution of precipitation. J. Mt. Sci., 5, 218-231, doi:10.1007/s11629-008-0126-8
7. Almazroui, M., 2011: Calibration of TRMM rainfall climatology over Saudi Arabia during 1998-2009. Atmos. Res., 99, 400-414, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.006
8. Almazroui, M., M. Nazrul Islam, H. Athar, P. D. Jones, and M. A. Rahman, 2012: Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: Annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978-2009. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 953-966, doi:10.1002/joc.3446
9. Alpert, P., and Coauthors, 2002: The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1536, doi:10.1029/2001GL013554
10. Al-Rawas, G., and C. Valeo, 2009: Characteristics of rainstorm temporal distributions in arid mountainous and coastal regions. J. Hydrol., 376, 318-326, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.044
11. AlSarmi, S., and R. Washington, 2011: Recent observed climate change over the Arabian Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D11109, doi:10.1029/2010JD015459
12. AlSarmi, S., and R. Washington, 2014: Changes in climate extremes in the Arabian Peninsula: Analysis of daily data. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1329-1345, doi:10.1002/joc.3772
13. Al Senafi, F., and A. Anis, 2015: Shamals and climate variability in the Northern Arabian/Persian Gulf from 1973 to 2012. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4509-4528, doi:10.1002/joc.4302
14. Athar, H., 2015: Teleconnections and variability in observed rainfall over Saudi Arabia during 1978-2010. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 16, 373-379, doi:10.1002/asl2.570
15. Avissar, R., and Y. Liu, 1996: Three-dimensional numerical study of shallow convective clouds and precipitation induced by land surface forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7499-7518, doi:10.1029/95JD03031
16. Barlow, M., 2011: Africa and west Asia. Intraseasonal Variability in the Coupled Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere System, W. Lau and D. Waliser, Eds., Praxis, 477-493
17. Barlow, M., and M. K. Tippett, 2008: Variability and predictability of central Asia river flows: Antecedent winter precipitation and large-scale teleconnections. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 1334-1349, doi:10.1175/2008JHM976.1
18. Barlow, M., H. Cullen, and B. Lyon, 2002: Drought in central and southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation. J. Climate, 15, 697-700, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0697:DICASA>2.0.CO;2
19. Barlow, M., M. Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over southwest Asia by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3579-3594, doi:10.1175/MWR3026.1
20. Barlow, M., H. Cullen, B. Lyon, and O. Wilhelmi, 2006: Drought disaster in Asia. Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies, J. Arnold et al., Eds., World Bank, 1-19
21. Barlow, M., A. Hoell, and F. Colby, 2007: Examining the wintertime response to tropical convection over the Indian Ocean by modifying convective heating in a full atmospheric model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030043
22. Betts, A. K., and J. H. Ball, 1998: FIFE surface climate and site-average dataset 1987-89. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1091-1108, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<1091:FSCASA>2.0.CO;2
23. Black, E., 2009: The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics in Jordan and Israel. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 10, 192-200, doi:10.1002/asl.233
24. Black, E., 2012: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European circulation regimes on the daily to interannual variability of winter precipitation in Israel. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1654-1664, doi:10.1002/joc.2383
25. Black, E., D. J. Brayshaw, and C. M. C. Rambeau, 2010: Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: Insights from models and observations. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 368A, 5173-5184, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0199
26. Blake, D. W., T. N. Krishnamurti, S. V. Low-Nam, and J. S. Fein, 1983: Heat low over the Saudi Arabian desert during May 1979 (Summer MONEX). Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1759-1775, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1759:HLOTSA>2.0.CO;2
27. Bollasina, M., and S. Nigam, 2011: Modeling of regional hydroclimate change over the Indian subcontinent: Impact of the expanding Thar Desert. J. Climate, 24, 3089-3106, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3851.1
28. Bozkurt, D., O. L. Sen, and S. Hagemann, 2015: Projected river discharge in the Euphrates-Tigris basin from a hydrological discharge model forced with RCM and GCM outputs. Climate Res., 62, 131-147, doi:10.3354/cr01268
29. Bruins, H. J., 1999: Drought management and water supply systems in Israel. Drought Management Planning in Water Supply Systems, E. Cabrera and J. García-Serra, Eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 299-321
30. Cannon, F., L. M. Carvalho, C. Jones, and J. Norris, 2016: Winter westerly disturbance dynamics and precipitation in the western Himalaya and Karakoram: A wave-tracking approach. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 125, 27-44, doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1489-8
31. Centre for International Earth Science Information Network, 2005: Poverty mapping project: Global subnational infant mortality rates. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, accessed 11 April 2014, doi:10.7927/H4PZ56R2
32. Chakraborty, A., S. K. Behera, M. Mujumdar, R. Ohba, and T. Yamagata, 2006: Diagnosis of tropospheric moisture over Saudi Arabia and influences of IOD and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 598-617, doi:10.1175/MWR3085.1
33. Charabi, Y., and S. Al-Hatrushi, 2010: Synoptic aspects of winter rainfall variability in Oman. Atmos. Res., 95, 470-486, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.11.009
34. Charney, J. G., 1975: Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 193-202, doi:10.1002/qj.49710142802
35. Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1217-1308. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/supplementary/WG1AR5_Ch14SM_FINAL.pdf.]
36. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 2014: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED international disaster database. Accessed 22 December 2014. [Available online at www.em-dat.be.]
37. Cullen, H. M., and P. B. deMenocal, 2000: North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 853-863, doi:10.1002/1097-0088(20000630)20:8<853::AID-JOC497>3.0.CO;2-M
38. Cullen, H. M., A. Kaplan, P. A. Arkin, and P. B. deMenocal, 2002: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climatic Change, 55, 315-338, doi:10.1023/A:1020518305517
39. Dai, A., 2013: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 52-58, doi:10.1038/nclimate1633
40. deMenocal, P. B., 2001: Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene. Science, 292, 667-673, doi:10.1126/science.1059827
41. Diffenbaugh, N. S., M. Scherer, and M. Ashfaq, 2013: Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 379-384, doi:10.1038/nclimate1732
42. Dirmeyer, P. A., 1994: Vegetation stress as a feedback mechanism in midlatitude drought. J. Climate, 7, 1463-1483, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1463:VSAAFM>2.0.CO;2
43. Dirmeyer, P. A., and K. L. Brubaker, 2007: Characterization of the global hydrologic cycle from a back-trajectory analysis of atmospheric water vapor. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 20-37, doi:10.1175/JHM557.1
44. Donat, M. G., and Coauthors, 2014: Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: Long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 581-592, doi:10.1002/joc.3707
45. Douville, H., J.-F. Royer, D. B. Stephenson, S. Tyteca, J. Polcher, P. Cox, N. Gedney, and P. Valdes, 2000: Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian summer monsoon: Robust versus model-dependent responses. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 78, 421-439
46. El Kharraz, J., A. El-Sadek, N. Ghaffour, and E. Mino, 2012: Water scarcity and drought in WANA countries. Procedia Eng., 33, 14-29, doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2012.01.1172
47. Enzel, Y., R. Bookman, D. Sharon, H. Gvirtzman, U. Dayan, B. Ziv, and M. Stein, 2003: Late Holocene climates of the near east deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall. Quat. Res., 60, 263-273, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2003.07.011
48. Evans, J. P., 2008: Changes in water vapor transport and the production of precipitation in the eastern Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 1390-1401, doi:10.1175/2008JHM998.1
49. Evans, J. P., 2009: 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change, 92, 417-432, doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5
50. Evans, J. P., 2010: Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 99, 389-402, doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0151-8
51. Evans, J. P., and R. Geerken, 2004: Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation. J. Arid Environ., 57, 535-554, doi:10.1016/S0140-1963(03)00121-6
52. Evans, J. P., and R. B. Smith, 2006: Water vapor transport and the production of precipitation in the eastern Fertile Crescent. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 1295-1307, doi:10.1175/JHM550.1
53. Evans, J. P., and B. F. Zaitchik, 2008: Modeling the large-scale water balance impact of different irrigation systems. Water Resour. Res., 44, W08448, doi:10.1029/2007WR006671
54. Evans, J. P., and A. Alsamawi, 2011: The importance of the Zagros Mountains barrier jet to future precipitation in the Fertile Crescent. Open Atmos. Sci. J., 5, 87-95, doi:10.2174/1874282301105010087
55. Evans, J. P., R. B. Smith, and R. J. Oglesby, 2004: Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1671-1694, doi:10.1002/joc.1084
56. Feldstein, S. B., and U. Dayan, 2008: Circumglobal teleconnections and wave packets associated with Israeli winter precipitation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 455-467, doi:10.1002/qj.225
57. Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 741-866, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020
58. Fröhlich, C. J., 2013: Water: Reason for conflict or catalyst for peace? The case of the Middle East. L'Europe Form., 3, 139-161
59. Ganor, E., I. Osetinsky, A. Stupp, and P. Alpert, 2010: Increasing trend of African dust, over 49 years, in the eastern Mediterranean. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D07201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012500
60. Gessner, U., V. Naeimi, I. Klein, C. Kuenzer, D. Klein, and S. Dech, 2013: The relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation activity in central Asia. Global Planet. Change, 110, 74-87, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.09.007
61. Giannakopoulou, E. M., and R. Toumi, 2012: The Persian Gulf summertime low-level jet over sloping terrain. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 145-157, doi:10.1002/qj.901
62. Giorgi, F., and P. Lionello, 2008: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global Planet. Change, 63, 90-104, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
63. Gleick, P., 2014: Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Wea. Climate Soc., 6, 331-340, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1
64. Golian, S., O. Mazdiyasni, A. AghaKouchak, 2015: Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 119, 679-688, doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1139-6
65. Hartmann, D. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and surface. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 159-254
66. Hoell, A., and C. Funk, 2013: The ENSO-related west Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. J. Climate, 26, 9545-9562, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00344.1
67. Hoell, A., M. Barlow, and R. Saini, 2012: The leading pattern of intraseasonal and interannual Indian Ocean precipitation variability and its relationship with Asian circulation during the boreal cold season. J. Climate, 25, 7509-7526, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00572.1
68. Hoell, A., M. Barlow, and R. Saini, 2013: Intraseasonal and seasonal-to-interannual Indian Ocean convection and hemispheric teleconnections. J. Climate, 26, 8850-8867, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00306.1
69. Hoell, A., C. Funk, and M. Barlow, 2014a: The regional forcing of Northern Hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events. Climate Dyn., 42, 3289-3311, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1799-4
70. Hoell, A., C. Funk, and M. Barlow, 2014b: La Niña diversity and northwest Indian Ocean rim teleconnections. Climate Dyn., 43, 2707-2724, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2083-y
71. Hoell, A., C. Funk, and M. Barlow, 2015: The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter. J. Climate, 28, 1511-1526, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00344.1
72. Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299, 691-694, doi:10.1126/science.1079053
73. Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X. W. Quan, T. Zhang, and P. Pegion, 2012: On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Climate, 25, 2146-2161, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1
74. Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2002: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1041:NPOTNH>2.0.CO;2
75. Immerzeel, W. W., L. P. H. van Beek, M. Konz, A. B. Shrestha, and M. F. P. Bierkens, 2012: Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Climatic Change, 110, 721-736, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4
76. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp
77. IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, 582 pp. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf.]
78. IPCC, 2013a: Annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1311-1394
79. IPCC, 2013b: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1-29
80. Jin, F., A. Kitoh, and P. Alpert, 2010: Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: A comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 368A, 5137-5149, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0204
81. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
82. Kaniewski, D., E. Van Campo, and H. Weiss, 2012: Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 3862-3867, doi:10.1073/pnas.1116304109
83. Kariyeva, J., and W. J. D. van Leeuwen, 2012: Phenological dynamics of irrigated and natural drylands in central Asia before and after the USSR collapse. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 162, 77-89, doi:10.1016/j.agee.2012.08.006
84. Katiraie-Boroujerdy, P. S., N. Nasrollahi, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian, 2016: Quantifying the reliability of four global datasets for drought monitoring over a semiarid region. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 123, 387-398, doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1360-3
85. Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager, and Y. Kushnir, 2012: The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th century winter drying of the Mediterranean region. Climate Dyn., 38, 2001-2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z
86. Kelley, C., S. Mohtadi, M. Cane, R. Seager, and Y. Kushnir, 2015: Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3241-3246, doi:10.1073/pnas.1421533112
87. Kim, D.-W., and H.-R. Byun, 2009: Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 98, 137-150, doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0100-y
88. Kitoh, A., S. Yukimoto, A. Noda, and T. Motoi, 1997: Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 75, 1019-1031
89. Kitoh, A., A. Yatagai, and P. Alpert, 2008: First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient "Fertile Crescent" will disappear in this century. Hydrol. Res. Lett., 2, 1-4, doi:10.3178/hrl.2.1
90. Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138-1140, doi:10.1126/science.1100217
91. Krichak, S. O., M. Tsidulko, and P. Alpert, 2000: Monthly synoptic patterns associated with wet/dry conditions in the eastern Mediterranean. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 65, 215-229, doi:10.1007/s007040070045
92. Krichak, S. O., P. Kishcha, and P. Alpert, 2002: Decadal trends of main Eurasian oscillations and the eastern Mediterranean precipitation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 72, 209-220, doi:10.1007/s007040200021
93. Krichak, S. O., J. S. Breitgand, S. Gualdi, and S. B. Feldstein, 2014: Teleconnection-extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 679-692, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-1036-4
94. Krishnamurti, T. N., 1961: The subtropical jet stream of winter. J. Meteor., 18, 172-191, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1961)018<0172:TSJSOW>2.0.CO;2
95. Kutiel, H., and S. Paz, 1998: Sea level pressure departures in the Mediterranean and their relationship with monthly rainfall conditions in Israel. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 60, 93-109, doi:10.1007/s007040050036
96. Kutiel, H., and Y. Benaroch, 2002: North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)-An upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 71, 17-28, doi:10.1007/s704-002-8205-x
97. Kutiel, H., P. Maheras, M. Türkes, and S. Paz, 2002: North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)-An upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean: Implications on the regional climate. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 72, 173-192, doi:10.1007/s00704-002-0674-8
98. Lambert, S. J., J. Sheng, and J. Boyle, 2002: Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1). Climate Dyn., 19, 1-16, doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0206-8
99. Lautze, S., E. Stites, N. Nojumi, and F. Najimi, 2002: Qaht-e-Pool-A cash famine: Food insecurity in Afghanistan 1999-2002. Feinstein International Famine Center Rep., 61 pp
100. Lionello, P., and F. Giorgi, 2007: Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: Future climate scenarios in a regional simulation. Adv. Geosci., 12, 153-158, doi:10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007
101. Lotsch, A., M. A. Friedl, B. T. Anderson, and C. J. Tucker, 2005: Response of terrestrial ecosystems to recent Northern Hemispheric drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06705, doi:10.1029/2004GL022043
102. Mann, M. E., 2002: Large-scale climate variability and connections with the Middle East in past centuries. Climatic Change, 55, 287-314, doi:10.1023/A:1020582910569
103. Marcella, M. P., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2008: The hydroclimatology of Kuwait: Explaining the variability of rainfall at seasonal and interannual time scales. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 1095-1105, doi:10.1175/2008JHM952.1
104. Marcella, M. P., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2010: Effects of mineral aerosols on the summertime climate of southwest Asia: Incorporating subgrid variability in a dust emission scheme. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18203, doi:10.1029/2010JD014036
105. Marcella, M. P., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2012a: The role of lateral boundary conditions in simulations of mineral aerosols by a regional climate model of southwest Asia. Climate Dyn., 38, 109-120, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0992-y
106. Marcella, M. P., and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2012b: Modeling the summertime climate of southwest Asia: The role of land surface processes in shaping the climate of semiarid regions. J. Climate, 25, 704-719, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4080.1
107. Mariotti, A., 2007: How ENSO impacts precipitation in southwest central Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16706, doi:10.1029/2007GL030078
108. Mariotti, A., N. Zeng, and K. M. Lau, 2002: Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO-A seasonally varying relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1621, doi:10.1029/2001GL014248
109. Mariotti, A., J. Ballabrera-Poy, and N. Zeng, 2005: Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability. Climate Dyn., 24, 511-521, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0498-6
110. Mariotti, A., N. Zeng, J.-H. Yoon, V. Artale, A. Navarra, P. Alpert, and L. Z. X. Li, 2008: Mediterranean water cycle changes: Transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations. Environ. Res. Lett., 3, 044001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001
111. Martyn, D., 1992: Climates of the World. Elsevier, 436 pp
112. Menon, A., A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler, 2013: Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models. Earth Syst. Dyn., 4, 287-300, doi:10.5194/esd-4-287-2013
113. Micklin, P., 1988: Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A water management disaster in the Soviet Union. Science, 241, 1170-1176, doi:10.1126/science.241.4870.1170
114. Micklin, P., and N. V. Aladin, 2008: Reclaiming the Aral Sea. Sci. Amer., 48, 64-71, doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0408-64
115. Miller, R. L., I. Tegen, and J. Perlwitz, 2004: Surface radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols and the hydrologic cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D04203, doi:10.1029/2003JD004085
116. Mishra, A. K., and V. P. Singh, 2010: A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol., 391, 202-216, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
117. Morin, E., 2011: To know what we cannot know: Global mapping of minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation. Water Resour. Res., 47, W07505, doi:10.1029/2010WR009798
118. Nazemosadat, M. J., and A. R. Ghasemi, 2004: Quantifying the ENSO-related shifts in the intensity and probability of drought and wet periods in Iran. J. Climate, 17, 4005-4018, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4005:QTESIT>2.0.CO;2
119. Nazemosadat, M. J., and H. Ghaedamini, 2010: On the relationships between the Madden-Julian oscillation and precipitation variability in southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula: Atmospheric circulation analysis. J. Climate, 23, 887-904, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2141.1
120. Nezlin, N. P., A. G. Kostianoy, and S. A. Lebedev, 2004: Interannual variations of the discharge of Amu Darya and Syr Darya estimated from global atmospheric precipitation. J. Mar. Syst., 47, 67-75, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.12.009
121. Nezlin, N. P., A. G. Kostianoy, and B. L. Li, 2005: Inter-annual variability and interaction of remote-sensed vegetation index and atmospheric precipitation in the Aral Sea region. J. Arid Environ., 62, 677-700, doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.01.015
122. Niranjan, K., and T. B. M. J. Ouarda, 2014: Precipitation variability over UAE and global SST teleconnections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 10 313-10 322, doi:10.1002/2014JD021724
123. NOAA, 1988: Data announcement 88-MGG-02: Digital relief of the surface of the earth. NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, accessed 27 March 2003
124. Nortcliff, S., E. Black, and R. Potter, 2011: Current water demands and future strategies under changing climatic conditions. Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley, S. Mithen, and E. Black, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 403-415
125. Oki, T., and S. Kanae, 2006: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science, 313, 1068-1072, doi:10.1126/science.1128845
126. Paz, S., Y. M. Tourre, and S. Planton, 2003: North Africa-west Asia (NAWA) sea-level pressure patterns and their linkages with the eastern Mediterranean (EM) climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1999, doi:10.1029/2003GL017862
127. Pinto, J. G., U. Ulbrich, G. C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, and S. Zacharias, 2007: Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Climate Dyn., 29, 195-210, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0230-4
128. Pinzon, J., M. E. Brown, and C. J. Tucker, 2005: Satellite time series correction of orbital drift artifacts using empirical mode decomposition. Hilbert-Huang Transform and Its Applications, N. Huang and S. Shen, Eds., World Scientific, 167-186
129. Polade, S., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, A. Gershunov, M. D. Dettinger, 2014: The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Sci. Rep., 4, 4364, doi:10.1038/srep04364
130. Pourasghar, F., T. Tozuka, S. Jahanbakhsh, B. Sari Sarraf, H. Ghaemi, and T. Yamagata, 2012: The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes. Climate Dyn., 39, 2329-2341, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1357-5
131. Pourasghar, F., T. Tozuka, H. Ghaemi, P. Oettli, S. Jahanbakhsh, and T. Yamagata, 2015: Influences of the MJO on intraseasonal rainfall variability over southern Iran. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 16, 110-118, doi:10.1002/asl2.531
132. Price, C., L. Stone, A. Huppert, B. Rajagopalan, and P. Alpert, 1998: A possible link between El Niño and precipitation in Israel. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3963-3966, doi:10.1029/1998GL900098
133. Ramankutty, N., A. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley, 2008: Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB1003, doi:10.1029/2007GB002952
134. Rodwell, M. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 1996: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1385-1404, doi:10.1002/qj.49712253408
135. Rodwell, M. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 2001: Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J. Climate, 14, 3192-3211, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3192:SAASM>2.0.CO;2
136. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2
137. Rudolf, B., T. Fuchs, U. Schneider, and A. Meyer-Christoffer, 2003: Introduction of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). GPCC Rep., 16 pp
138. Ryan, J., R. Sommer, and H. Ibrikci, 2012: Fertilizer best management practices: A perspective from the dryland west Asia-North Africa region. J. Agron. Crop Sci., 198, 57-67, doi:10.1111/j.1439-037X.2011.00488.x
139. Saaroni, H., B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003: Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the eastern Mediterranean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1946, doi:10.1029/2003GL017742
140. Saaroni, H., B. Ziv, I. Osetinsky, and P. Alpert, 2010: Factors governing the interannual variation and the long-term trend of the 850 hPa temperature over Israel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 305-318, doi:10.1002/qj.580
141. Saini, R., M. Barlow, and A. Hoell, 2011: Dynamics and thermodynamics of the regional response to the Indian monsoon onset. J. Climate, 24, 5879-5886, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3928.1
142. Schär, C., L. Vasilina, F. Pertziger, and S. Dirren, 2004: Seasonal runoff forecasting using precipitation from meteorological data assimilation systems. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 959-973, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0959:SRFUPF>2.0.CO;2
143. Scheffer, M., M. Holmgren, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen, 2005: Synergy between small-and large-scale feedbacks of vegetation on the water cycle. Global Change Biol., 11, 1003-1012, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00962.x
144. Schiemann, R., M. G. Glazirina, and C. Schär, 2007: On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and river flow in the Aral Sea basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05706, doi:10.1029/2006GL028926
145. Schiemann, R., D. Lüthi, P. L. Vidale, and C. Schär, 2008: The precipitation climate of central Asia-Intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 295-314, doi:10.1002/joc.1532
146. Schiemann, R., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2009: Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. J. Climate, 22, 2940-2957, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2625.1
147. Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, M. Ziese, and B. Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15-40, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
148. Seager, R., N. Harnik, Y. Kushnir, W. Robinson, and J. Miller, 2003: Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric climate variability. J. Climate, 16, 2960-2978, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2960:MOHSCV>2.0.CO;2
149. Seager, R., N. Harnik, W. Robinson, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting, H. Huang, and J. Velez, 2005: Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1501-1527, doi:10.1256/qj.04.96
150. Seager, R., H. B. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, and M. F. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655-4676, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00446.1
151. Selby, J., and C. Hoffmann, 2012: Water scarcity, conflict, and migration: A comparative analysis and reappraisal. Environ. Plann., 30C, 997-1014, doi:10.1068/c11335j
152. Sheffield, J., and E. F. Wood, 2008: Global trends and variability in soil moisture and drought characteristics, 1950-2000, from observation-driven simulations of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J. Climate, 21, 432-458, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1822.1
153. Shohami, D., U. Dayan, and E. Morin, 2011: Warming and drying of the eastern Mediterranean: Additional evidence from trend analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D22101, doi:10.1029/2011JD016004
154. Simpson, I. R., R. Seager, T. A. Shaw, and M. Ting, 2015: Mediterranean summer climate and the importance of Middle East topography. J. Climate, 28, 1977-1996, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00298.1
155. Singh, P., and L. Bengtsson, 2004: Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change. Hydrol. Processes, 18, 2363-2385, doi:10.1002/hyp.1468
156. Sorg, A., T. Bolch, M. Stoffel, O. Solomina, and M. Beniston, 2012: Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (central Asia). Nat. Climate Change, 2, 725-731, doi:10.1038/nclimate1592
157. Sorg, A., M. Huss, M. Rohrer, and M. Stoffel, 2014: The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized central Asian catchments. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104018, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104018
158. Stowasser, M., H. Annamalai, and J. Hafner, 2009: Response of the South Asian summer monsoon to global warming: Mean and synoptic systems. J. Climate, 22, 1014-1036, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2218.1
159. Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, 1988: Influence of land surface roughness on atmospheric circulation and precipitation: A sensitivity study with a general circulation model. J. Appl. Meteor., 27, 1036-1054, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1988)027<1036:IOLSRO>2.0.CO;2
160. Sutton, R. T., B. Dong, and J. M. Gregory, 2007: Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028164
161. Syed, F. S., F. Giorgi, J. S. Pal, and M. P. King, 2006: Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central southwest Asia part 1: Observations. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 86, 147-160, doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0217-1
162. Thenkabail, P. S., M. S. D. N. Gamage, and V. U. Smakhtin, 2004: The use of remote-sensing data for drought assessment and monitoring in Southwest Asia. International Water Management Institute (Colombo, Sri Lanka) Research Rep. 85, 25 pp
163. Tippett, M. K., M. Barlow, and B. Lyon, 2003: Statistical correction of central southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1421-1433, doi:10.1002/joc.947
164. Tippett, M. K., L. Goddard, and A. G. Barnston, 2005: Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasts of central-southwest Asian winter precipitation. J. Climate, 18, 1831-1843, doi:10.1175/JCLI3371.1
165. Tippett, M. K., M. Almazroui, and I.-S. Kang, 2015: Extended-range forecasts of areal-averaged Saudi Arabia rainfall. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1090-1105, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-15-0011.1
166. Törnros, T., and L. Menzel, 2014: Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 305-318, doi:10.5194/hess-18-305-2014
167. Tourre, Y., and S. Paz, 2004: The North-Africa/western Asia (NAWA) sea level pressure index: A Mediterranean signature of the northern annular mode (NAM). Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17209, doi:10.1029/2004GL020414
168. Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg, 1999: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1685:OCOCIT>2.0.CO;2
169. Trigo, R. M., C. Gouveia, and D. Barriopedro, 2010: The intense 2007-2009 drought in the Fertile Crescent: Impacts and associated atmospheric circulation. Agric. For. Meteor., 150, 1245-1257, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.05.006
170. Tsvieli, Y., and A. Zangvil, 2005: Synoptic climatological analysis of 'wet' and 'dry' Red Sea troughs over Israel. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1997-2015, doi:10.1002/joc.1232
171. Tucker, C. J., J. E. Pinzon, M. E. Brown, D. Slayback, E. W. Pak, R. Mahoney, E. Vermote, and N. El Saleous, 2005: An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data. Int. J. Remote Sens., 26, 4485-4498, doi:10.1080/01431160500168686
172. Turner, A. G., and H. Annamalai, 2012: Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 1-9, doi:10.1038/nclimate1495
173. Turner, A. G., P. M. Inness, and J. M. Slingo, 2007: The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 1143-1157, doi:10.1002/qj.82
174. Tyrlis, E., J. Lelieveld, and B. Steil, 2013: The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: Influence of the South Asian monsoon. Climate Dyn., 40, 1103-1123, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1528-4
175. Ulbrich, U., W. May, L. Li, P. Lionello, J. G. Pinto, and S. Somot, 2006: The Mediterranean climate change under global warming. Developments in Earth and Environmental Sciences, P. Lionello et al., Eds., Elsevier, 399-415
176. Voss, K. A., J. S. Famiglietti, M.-H. Lo, C. de Linage, M. Rodell, and S. C. Swenson, 2013: Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with implications for transboundary water management in the Tigris-Euphrates-western Iran region. Water Resour. Res., 49, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20078
177. Wade, A. J., E. C. L. Black, D. J. Brayshaw, M. El-Bastawesy, P. A. C. Holmes, D. Butterfield, S. Nuimat, and K. Jamjoum, 2010: A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 368A, 5151-5172, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0207
178. Waliser, D. E., K. M. Lau, W. Stern, and C. Jones, 2003: Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 33-50, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-1-33
179. Walters, K., and W. Sjoberg, 1988: The Persian Gulf region-A climatological study. USAF Tech. Note USAFETAC/TN-88/002, 62 pp
180. Weiss, H., and R. S. Bradley, 2001: What drives societal collapse? Science, 291, 609-610, doi:10.1126/science.1058775
181. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9, 840-858, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0840:AOGMPU>2.0.CO;2
182. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2
183. Yin, Z. Y., H. Wang, and X. Liu, 2014: A comparative study on precipitation climatology and interannual variability in the lower midlatitude East Asia and central Asia. J. Climate, 27, 7830-7848, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00052.1
184. Yosef, Y., H. Saaroni, and P. Alpert, 2009: Trends in daily rainfall intensity over Israel 1950/1-2003/4. Open Atmos. Sci. J., 3, 196-203, doi:10.2174/1874282300903010196
185. Zaitchik, B. F., J. P. Evans, R. A. Geerken, and R. B. Smith, 2007: Climate and vegetation in the Middle East: Interannual variability and drought feedbacks. J. Climate, 20, 3924-3941, doi:10.1175/JCLI4223.1
186. Zeng, N., and J. Yoon, 2009: Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17401, doi:10.1029/2009GL039699
187. Zhang, X., and Coauthors, 2005: Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006181
188. Ziv, B., H. Saaroni, and P. Alpert, 2004: The factors governing the summer regime of the eastern Mediterranean. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1859-1871, doi:10.1002/joc.1113
189. Ziv, B., U. Dayan, and D. Sharon, 2005a: A mid-winter, tropical extreme flood-producing storm in southern Israel: Synoptic scale analysis. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 88, 53-63, doi:10.1007/s00703-003-0054-7
190. Ziv, B., H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli, and P. Alpert, 2005b: Indications for aggravation in summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796
191. Ziv, B., U. Dayan, Y. Kushnir, C. Roth, and Y. Enzel, 2006: Regional and global atmospheric patterns governing rainfall in the southern Levant. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 55-73, doi:10.1002/joc.1238
192. Ziv, B., H. Saaroni, R. Pargament, T. Harpaz, and P. Alpert, 2014: Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975-2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability. Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 1751-1764, doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0414-x