Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: Long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 581-592

  Donat, M G ^a   Peterson, T C ^b   Brunet, M ^c,d   King, A D ^a   Almazroui, M ^e   Kolli, R K ^f   Boucherf, Djamel ^g   Al Mulla, Anwar Yousuf ^h   Nour, Abdourahman Youssouf ⁱ   Aly, Ahmed Attia ^j   Nada, Tamer Ali Ali ^j   Semawi, Muhammad M ^k   Al Dashti, Hasan Abdullah ^l   Salhab, Tarek G ^m   El Fadli, Khalid I ⁿ   Muftah, Mohamed K ⁿ   Dah Eida, Sidaty ^o   Badi, Wafae ^p   Driouech, Fatima ^p   El Rhaz, Khalid ^p   Abubaker, Mohammed J Y ^q   Ghulam, Ayman S ^r   Erayah, Amani Sanhouri ^s   Mansour, Maher Ben ^t   Alabdouli, Waleed O ^h   Al Dhanhani, Jemie Salem ^u   Al Shekaili, Majed N ^u   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b NOAA NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^e KING ABDULAZIZ UNIVERSITY   (Saudi Arabia)

^f WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

^g National Climatogical Center   (Algeria)

^h Transport/Civil Aviation Affairs ^*  (United Arab Emirates)

ⁱ Climate Unit   (Djibouti)

^j Ministry of Civil Aviation   (Egypt)

^k Jordan Meteorological Department   (Jordan)

^l DGCA   (Kuwait)

^m Ministry of Public Works and Transport   (Lebanon)

ⁿ Climate and Climate Change Department   (Libyan Arab Jamahiriya)

^o Office National de la Meteorologie   (Mauritania)

^p National Meteorological Research Centre   (Morocco)

^q Palestinian Meteorological Office   (Palestine)

^r Presidency of Meteorology and Environment   (Saudi Arabia)

^s Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA)   (Sudan)

^t National Neurologic Institute   (Tunisia)

^u National Center of Meteorology and Seismology   (United Arab Emirates)

more..

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate extremes; ENSO; NAO; Observations; Precipitation; Temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE EXTREMES; ENSO; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; NAO; NATURAL VARIABILITY; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; OBSERVATIONS; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); TEMPERATURE;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TREND ANALYSIS;

ARABIAN PENINSULA; ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84896692565     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3707     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahim F, Tagipour A, Kumar Kolli R, Revadekar JV, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez Aguirre JL. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111: D05109. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006290
2. Alkolibi FM. 2002. Possible effects of global warming on agriculture and water resources in Saudi Arabia: Impacts and responses. Climatic Change 54: 225-245.
3. Almazroui M. 2011. Sensitivity of a regional climate model on the simulation of high intensity rainfall events over the Arabian Peninsula and around Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104: 261-276. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-010-0387-3
4. Almazroui M, Islam MN, Athar H, Jones PD, Rahman MA. 2012. Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978-2009. International Journal of Climatology 32: 953-966. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3446
5. Al-Qinna MI, Hammouri NA, Obeidat MM, Ahmad FY. 2011. Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates. Climatic Change 106: 421-440.
6. AlSarmi S, Washington R. 2011. Recent observed climate change over the Arabian Peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research 116: D11109. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015459
7. Dahech S, Beltrando G. 2012. Observed temperature evolution in the City of Sfax (Middle Eastern Tunisia) for the period 1950-2007. Climatic Change. 114(3-4): 689-706. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0420-x
8. Domonkos P. 2011. Homogenising time series: beliefs, dogmas and facts. Advances in Science and Research 6: 167-172. DOI: 10.5194/asr-6-167-2011
9. Donat MG, Alexander LV. 2012. The shifting probability distribution of global daytime and night-time temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters 39: L14707. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052459
10. Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJH, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B, Jack C, Klein Tank AMG, Kruger AC, Marengo J, Peterson TC, Renom M, Oria Rojas C, Rusticucci M, Salinger J, Elrayah AS, Sekele SS, Srivastava AK, Trewin B, Villarroel C, Vincent LA, Zhai P, Zhang X, Kitching S. 2013. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 118: 2098-2118. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50150
11. Driouech F, Mahé G, Déqué M, Dieulin C, El Heirech T, Milano M, Benabdelfadel A, Rouche N. 2010. Evaluation d'impacts potentiels de changements climatiques sur l'hydrologie du bassin versant de la Moulouya au Maroc. Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources (Proc. of the Sixth World FRIEND Conference, Fez, Morocco, October 2010). IAHS Publ. 340, 2010.
12. El Kenawy A, López-Moreno J, Vicente-Serrano S, Mekld M. 2009. Temperature trends in Libya over the second half of the 20th century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 98: 1-8.
13. El Fadli KI. 2012. Climate change over Libya and impacts on agriculture. Thesis submitted for the degree of MSc in Meteorology, Cairo University, Cairo, p. 107.
14. El Tantawi, 2005. Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain. Ph D. Thesis, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz.
15. Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (Eds.) 2012. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 1075.
16. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th Century. Climate Research 19: 193-212.
17. Giorgi F, Lionello P. 2008. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change 63: 90-104. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
18. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Stott PA, Kharin VV. 2004. Detectability of Anthropogenic Changes in Annual Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. Journal of Climate 17: 3683-3700.
19. Kaniewski D, Van Campo E, Weiss H. 2012. Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109: 3862-3867.
20. Klein Tank AMG, Zwiers FW, Zhang X. 2009. Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500, 56pp. (WCDMP-72, WMO-TD/No. 1500).
21. Klok EJ, Klein Tank AMG. 2009. Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. International Journal of Climatology 29(8): 1182-1191. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1779
22. Menne MJ, Durre I, Gleason BG, Houston TG, Vose RS. 2012. An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 29: 897-910.
23. NCAR-Climate Analysis Section provided NAO Index Data. Accessed 3 July 2012.
24. Ozer P, Mahamoud A. 2012. Recent precipitation and temperature changes in Djibouti City. Thirty First Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF31): Building resilience to climate related disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa through regional climate forums. Available at http://hdl.handle.net/2268/123996.
25. Parmesan C, Root TL, Willig MR. 2000. Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 443-450.
26. Peterson TC. 2005. Climate change indices. WMO Bulletin 54: 83-86.
27. Peterson TC, Manton MJ. 2008. Monitoring changes in climate extremes: a tale of international collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: 1266-1271. DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2501.1
28. Peterson TC, Zhang X, Brunet-India M, Vázquez-Aguirre JL. 2008. Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 113: D07113. DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009453
29. Peterson TC, Stott PA, Herring S. 2012. Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society 93(7): 1041-1067. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1
30. Sanhouri AE. 2011. Natural vegetation as an indicator of climate change in the white Nile State(Algitena)area. M.Sc. thesis, Sudan Academy of Science, Advanced Technology & Environmental Council.
31. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D. 2013a. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 118(4): 1716-1733. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50203
32. Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D. 2013b. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 2: future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50188
33. Trenberth K. 1984. Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 112: 326-332.
34. Wang XL. 2008a. Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean-shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47(9): 2423-2444. DOI: 10.1175/2008JAMC1741.1
35. Wang XL. 2008b. Penalized maximal F test for detecting undocumented mean-shifts without trend-change. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25(3): 368-384. DOI: 10.1175/2007JTECHA982.1
36. Wang XL, Feng Y. 2009. RHtestsV3 user manual, report, 26pp, Clim. Res. Div., Atmos. Sci. and Technol. Dir., Sci. and Technol. Branch, Environ. Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, Canada. Available at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDI/software.shtml.
37. Zhang XB, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N, Rahimzadeh F, Taghipour A, Hantosh TH, Albert P, Semawi M, Ali MK, Al-Shabibi MHS, Al-Oulan Z, Zatari T, Khelet IA, Hamoud S, Sagir R, Demircan M, Eken M, Adiguzel M, Alexander L, Peterson TC, Wallis T. 2005. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 110: D22104. DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006181
38. Zhang X, Alexander LV, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Klein Tank A, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Climate Change 2(6): 851-870. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147