Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow

Climatic Change

Volumn 55, Issue 3, 2002, Pages 315-338

  Cullen, Heidi M ^a   Kaplan, Alexey ^b   Arkin, Phillip A ^c   DeMenocal, Peter B ^b  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^c NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); RAIN; RUNOFF; STREAM FLOW;

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST);

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; REGIONAL CLIMATE; STREAMFLOW;

MIDDLE EAST;

EID: 0036830644     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1020518305517     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Algaze, C.: 2001, 'Initial social complexity in southwestern Asia - The Mesopotamian advantage', Current Anthropology 42, 199-233.
2. Alheit, J. and Hagen, E.: 1997, 'Long-term climate forcing of European herring and sardine populations', Fish. Oceanogr. 6, 130-139.
3. Barlow, M., Cullen, H., and Lyon, B.: 2002, 'Drought in Southwest and Central Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation', J. Climate, in press.
4. Beniston, M.: 1997, 'Variations of snow depth and duration in the Swiss Alps over the last 50 Years: Links to changes in large-scale climatic forcings', Clim. Change 36, 281-300.
5. Blunier, T., Chappellaz, J., Stauffer, B., and Raynaud, D.: 1995, 'Variations in atmospheric methane concentration during the holocene Epoch', Nature 374, 46-49.
6. Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., de Menocal, P., Priore, P., Cullen, H., Hajdas, I., and Bonani, G.: 1997, 'A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic holocene and glacial climates', Science 278, 1257-1266.
7. Bretherton, C. S., Smith, C., and Wallace, J. M.: 1992, 'An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data', J. Climate 5, 541-560.
8. Cane, M., Eshel, G., and Buckland, R.: 1994, 'Forecasting zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial pacific sea surface temperature', Nature 370, 204-207.
9. Cane, M. A. and Zebiak, S. E.: 1985, 'A theory for the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation', Science 228, 1085-1087.
10. Cullen, H. M. and deMenocal, P.: 2000a, 'North Atlantic influence on tigris-euphrates streamflow', Int. J. Clim. 20, 853-863.
11. Cullen, H. M. and deMenocal, P.: 2000b, 'The possible role of climate in the collapse of the akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea', Geology 28, 379-382.
12. Dai, A., Fung, I., and DelGenio, A.: 1997, 'Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900-88', J. Climate 10, 2943-2962.
13. Delworth, T. L. and Mann, M. E.: 2000, 'Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the northern hemisphere', Clim. Dyn. 16, 661-676.
14. Deser, C. and Blackmon, M. L.: 1993, 'Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989', J. Climate 6, 1743-1753.
15. DOE: 2001, 'Country analysis briefs', in Energy Information Administration.
16. Elfatih, A. and Eltahir, B.: 1996, 'El Niño and the natural variability in the flow of the Nile River', Water Resour. Res. 32, 131-137.
17. Eshel, G., Farrell, C. M., and Farrell, B.: 2000, 'Forecasting Eastern Mediterranean droughts', Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 3618-3630.
18. Evans, M. N., Kaplan, A., and Cane, M. A.: 2000, 'Intercomparison of coral oxygen isotope data and historical sea surface temperature (SST): Potential for coral-based SST field reconstructions', Paleoceanography 15, 551-563.
19. Fromentin, J. M. and Planque, B.: 'Calanus and environment in the Eastern North Atlantic: Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on C-finmarchicus and C-helolandicus', Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 134, 111-118.
20. Hillel, D.: 1994, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, Oxford University Press, 1st edn.
21. Hoerling, M., Whitaker, J., Kumar, A., and Wang, W.: 2001, 'The midlatitude warming during 1998-2000', Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 755-758.
22. Hurrell, J., Kushnir, Y., and Visbeck, M.: 2001, 'The North Atlantic Oscillation', Science 291, 603-605.
23. Hurrell, J. and Van Loon, H.: 1997, 'Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation', Clim. Change 36, 301-326.
24. Hurrell, J. W.: 1995, 'Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation', Science 269, 676-679.
25. Janowiak, J. and Xie, P.: 1999, 'CAMS-OPI: A global satellite-raingauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications', J. Climate 12, 3335-3342.
26. Kaplan, A., Cane, M., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A., Blumenthal, B., and Rajagopolan, B.: 1998, 'Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991', J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 103, 18567-18589.
27. Kaplan, A., Kushnir, Y., Cane, M., and Blumenthal, M.: 1997, 'Reduced space optimal analysis for historical data sets: 136 Years of Atlantic sea surface temperatures', J. Geophys. Res. 102, 27835-27860.
28. Keigwin, L.: 1996, 'The little ice age and medieval warm period in the Sargasso Sea', Science 274, 1504-1508.
29. Kolars, J.: 1997, 'The Tigris-Euphrates Rivers', Water Internat. 22, 49-53.
30. Kushnir, Y.: 1994, 'Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions', J. Climate 7, 141-157.
31. Mann, M.: 2002, 'Large-scale climate variability and connections with the Middle East in past centuries', Clim. Change, this issue.
32. Mason, S., Goddard, L., Graham, N., Yulaeva, E., Sun, L., and Arkin, P.: 1999, 'The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/1998 El Niño event', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 1853-1873.
33. Molinari, R., Mayer, D., Festa, J., and Bezdek, H.: 1997, 'Multiyear variability in the near-surface temperature structure of the midlatitude Western North Atlantic Ocean', J. Geophys. Res. 102, 3267-3278.
34. O'Brien, S., Mayewski, P., Meeker, L., Meese, D., Twickler, M., and Whitlow, S.: 1995, 'Complexity of holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core', Science 270, 1962-1964.
35. Philander, S.: 1983, 'El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena', Nature 302, 295-301.
36. Philander, S.: 1985, 'El Niño and La Niña', J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 2652-2662.
37. Rasmusson, E. M. and Carpenter, T. H.: 1982, 'Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño', Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 354-384.
38. Rverdin, G., Cayan, D., and Kushnir, Y.: 1997, 'Decadal variability of hydrography in the upper Northern Atlantic in 1948-1990', J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8505-8531.
39. Rodwell, M., Rowell, D. P., and Folland, C. K.: 1999, 'Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate', Nature 398, 320-323.
40. Seager R., Kushnir, Y., Visbeck, M., Naik, N., Miller, J., Krahmann, G., and Cullen, H.: 2000, 'Causes of Atlantic Ocean climate variability between 1958 and 1998', J. Clim. 13, 2845-2862.
41. Shapland, G.: 1997, Rivers of Discord: International Water Disputes of the Middle East, St. Martin's Press, 1st edn.
42. Simpson, H., Cane, M., Herczeg, A., Zebiak, S., and Simpson, J.: 1993a, 'Annual discharge in Southeastern Australia related to El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts of sea surface temperatures', Water Resour. Res. 29, 3671-3680.
43. Simpson, H., Cane, M., Lin, S., Zebiak, S., and Herczeg, A.: 1993b, 'Forecasting annual discharge of River Murray, Australia, from a geophysical model of ENSO', J. Climate 6, 386-391.
44. Soffer, A.: 1999, Rivers of Fire: The Conflict Over Water in the Middle East, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 1st edn.
45. Turkes, M.: 1996a, 'Meteorological drought in Turkey: A historical perspective 1930-1993', Drought Network News 8, 17-21.
46. Turkes, M.: 1996b, 'Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey', Int. J. Clim. 16, 1057-1076.
47. Weiss, H.: 1997, 'Archaeology in Syria', Amer. J. Archaeology 101, 97-148.
48. Weiss, H., Courty, M., Wetterstrom, W., Guichard, F., Senior, L., Meadow, R., and Curnow, A.: 1993, 'The genesis and collapse of 3rd millennium North Mesopotamian civilization', Science 261, 994-1004.
49. Xie, P. and Arkin, P.: 1996, 'Global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions', J. Climate 9, 840-858.