-
1
-
-
0037104707
-
The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interactions over the global oceans
-
Alexander MA et al (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interactions over the global oceans. J Clim 15(16):2205–2231. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2
-
(2002)
J Clim
, vol.15
, Issue.16
, pp. 2205-2231
-
-
Alexander, M.A.1
-
2
-
-
79959608994
-
The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting
-
Arribas A et al (2011) The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 139(6):1891–1910. doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3615.1
-
(2011)
Mon Weather Rev
, vol.139
, Issue.6
, pp. 1891-1910
-
-
Arribas, A.1
-
3
-
-
62749178972
-
Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill
-
Balmaseda M et al (2009) Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill. Geophys Res Lett 36(1):L01701. doi:10.1029/2008GL035561
-
(2009)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.36
, Issue.1
, pp. L01701
-
-
Balmaseda, M.1
-
4
-
-
84877264515
-
Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion
-
Bintanja R et al (2013) Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion. Nat Geosci 6:376–379. doi:10.1038/NGEO1767
-
(2013)
Nat Geosci
, vol.6
, pp. 376-379
-
-
Bintanja, R.1
-
5
-
-
79952251219
-
Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate
-
Boer GJ (2011) Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate. Clim Dyn 36(5):1119–1133. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0747-9
-
(2011)
Clim Dyn
, vol.36
, Issue.5
, pp. 1119-1133
-
-
Boer, G.J.1
-
7
-
-
84858611274
-
Systematic estimates of initial value decadal predictability for six AOGCMs
-
Branstator G, Kimoto M, Knight JR, Latif M, Rosati A (2012) Systematic estimates of initial value decadal predictability for six AOGCMs. J Clim 25:1827–1846. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00227.1
-
(2012)
J Clim
, vol.25
, pp. 1827-1846
-
-
Branstator, G.1
Kimoto, M.2
Knight, J.R.3
Latif, M.4
Rosati, A.5
-
8
-
-
47949105776
-
From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions
-
Bröcker J, Smith LA (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus A 60(4):663–678. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
-
(2008)
Tellus A
, vol.60
, Issue.4
, pp. 663-678
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
9
-
-
84867210581
-
Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6
-
Chalmers N et al (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18709. doi:10.1029/2012GL052848
-
(2012)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.39
, pp. L18709
-
-
Chalmers, N.1
-
10
-
-
33748316791
-
Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America
-
Coelho CAS et al (2006) Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J Clim 19(15):3704–3721. doi:10.1175/JCLI3801.1
-
(2006)
J Clim
, vol.19
, Issue.15
, pp. 3704-3721
-
-
Coelho, C.A.S.1
-
11
-
-
84908894828
-
Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends
-
Cowtan K, Way RG (2014) Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q J R Meteorol Soc 140(683):1935–1944. doi:10.1002/qj.2297
-
(2014)
Q J R Meteorol Soc
, vol.140
, Issue.683
, pp. 1935-1944
-
-
Cowtan, K.1
Way, R.G.2
-
12
-
-
64049095858
-
Atmospheric circulation trends, 1950–2000: the relative roles of sea surface temperature forcing and direct atmospheric radiative forcing
-
Deser C, Phillips AS (2009) Atmospheric circulation trends, 1950–2000: the relative roles of sea surface temperature forcing and direct atmospheric radiative forcing. J Clim 22(2):396–413. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1
-
(2009)
J Clim
, vol.22
, Issue.2
, pp. 396-413
-
-
Deser, C.1
Phillips, A.S.2
-
13
-
-
84879216416
-
Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects
-
Doblas-Reyes FJ et al (2013a) Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects. WIREs Clim Change 4(4):245–268. doi:10.1002/wcc.217
-
(2013)
WIREs Clim Change
, vol.4
, Issue.4
, pp. 245-268
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
-
14
-
-
84877744693
-
Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction
-
Doblas-Reyes FJ et al (2013b) Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat Commun 4:1715. doi:10.1038/ncomms2704
-
(2013)
Nat Commun
, vol.4
, pp. 1715
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
-
15
-
-
84949662198
-
A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
-
Eden JM et al (2015) A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 8:3941–3970. doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-3941-2015
-
(2015)
Geosci Model Dev Discuss
, vol.8
, pp. 3941-3970
-
-
Eden, J.M.1
-
16
-
-
84878213396
-
High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead
-
Folland CK et al (2013) High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead. Geophys Res Lett 40(4):761–767. doi:10.1002/grl.50169
-
(2013)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.40
, Issue.4
, pp. 761-767
-
-
Folland, C.K.1
-
17
-
-
84904784863
-
A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions
-
Fuc̆kar NS, Volpi D, Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2014) A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions. Geophys Res Lett 41(14):5200–5207. doi:10.1002/2014GL060815
-
(2014)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.41
, Issue.14
, pp. 5200-5207
-
-
Fuc̆kar, N.S.1
Volpi, D.2
Guemas, V.3
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
-
18
-
-
84871928605
-
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments
-
Goddard L et al (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments. Clim Dyn 40(1):245–272. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
-
(2013)
Clim Dyn
, vol.40
, Issue.1
, pp. 245-272
-
-
Goddard, L.1
-
19
-
-
27744448009
-
Efficacy of climate forcings
-
Hansen J et al (2005) Efficacy of climate forcings. J Geophys Res 110:D18104. doi:10.1029/2005JD005776
-
(2005)
J Geophys Res
, vol.110
, pp. D18104
-
-
Hansen, J.1
-
20
-
-
78649286836
-
Global surface temperature change
-
Hansen J et al (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345
-
(2010)
Rev Geophys
, vol.48
, pp. RG4004
-
-
Hansen, J.1
-
21
-
-
81455139195
-
Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach
-
Hawkins E et al (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Clim Dyn 37(11):2495–2509. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3
-
(2011)
Clim Dyn
, vol.37
, Issue.11
, pp. 2495-2509
-
-
Hawkins, E.1
-
22
-
-
84898050510
-
The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate prediction
-
Hawkins E et al (2013) The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate prediction. J Clim 27(8):2931–2947. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1
-
(2013)
J Clim
, vol.27
, Issue.8
, pp. 2931-2947
-
-
Hawkins, E.1
-
23
-
-
70450173156
-
The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
-
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(8):1095–1107. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
-
(2009)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.90
, Issue.8
, pp. 1095-1107
-
-
Hawkins, E.1
Sutton, R.2
-
24
-
-
84878900471
-
Predicting multiyear North Atlantic Ocean variability
-
Hazeleger W et al (2013) Predicting multiyear North Atlantic Ocean variability. J Geophys Res 118(3):1087–1098. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20117
-
(2013)
J Geophys Res
, vol.118
, Issue.3
, pp. 1087-1098
-
-
Hazeleger, W.1
-
25
-
-
84904521005
-
Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts
-
Hermanson L et al (2014) Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts. Geophys Res Lett 41(14):5167–5174. doi:10.1002/2014GL060420
-
(2014)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.41
, Issue.14
, pp. 5167-5174
-
-
Hermanson, L.1
-
26
-
-
84887297298
-
Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion
-
Ho CK et al (2013a) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophys Res Lett 40(21):5770–5775. doi:10.1002/2013GL057630
-
(2013)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.40
, Issue.21
, pp. 5770-5775
-
-
Ho, C.K.1
-
27
-
-
84881025233
-
Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions
-
Ho CK et al (2013b) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Clim Dyn 41(3):917–935. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9
-
(2013)
Clim Dyn
, vol.41
, Issue.3
, pp. 917-935
-
-
Ho, C.K.1
-
28
-
-
80052629272
-
On North American decadal climate for 2011–2020
-
Hoerling M et al (2011) On North American decadal climate for 2011–2020. J Clim 24(16):4519–4528. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4137.1
-
(2011)
J Clim
, vol.24
, Issue.16
, pp. 4519-4528
-
-
Hoerling, M.1
-
29
-
-
0030456311
-
Long-lead seasonal temperature prediction using optimal climate normals
-
Huang J, van den Dool HM, Barnston AG (1996) Long-lead seasonal temperature prediction using optimal climate normals. J Clim 9(4):809–817. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0809:LLSTPU>2.0.CO;2
-
(1996)
J Clim
, vol.9
, Issue.4
, pp. 809-817
-
-
Huang, J.1
van den Dool, H.M.2
Barnston, A.G.3
-
30
-
-
84928572974
-
Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the hiatus warming
-
Johansson DJA et al (2015) Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the hiatus warming. Nat Clim Change 5:449–453. doi:10.1038/nclimate2573
-
(2015)
Nat Clim Change
, vol.5
, pp. 449-453
-
-
Johansson, D.J.A.1
-
31
-
-
0038375955
-
A comparison of climate response to different radiative forcings in three general circulation models: towards an improved metric of climate change
-
Joshi M et al (2003) A comparison of climate response to different radiative forcings in three general circulation models: towards an improved metric of climate change. Clim Dyn 20(7):843–854. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0305-9
-
(2003)
Clim Dyn
, vol.20
, Issue.7
, pp. 843-854
-
-
Joshi, M.1
-
32
-
-
84867546631
-
Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate
-
Kharin VV et al (2012) Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate. Geophys Res Lett 39:19. doi:10.1029/2012GL052647
-
(2012)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.39
, pp. 19
-
-
Kharin, V.V.1
-
33
-
-
84928617872
-
-
Kirtman B et al (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and Predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 953–1028. doi:10.1017/CB09781107415324.023
-
-
-
-
34
-
-
84885653293
-
The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 towards developing intraseasonal prediction
-
Kirtman B et al (2014) The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 towards developing intraseasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:585–601. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
-
(2014)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.95
, pp. 585-601
-
-
Kirtman, B.1
-
35
-
-
57849084472
-
How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006
-
Lean JL, Rind DH (2008) How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophys Res Lett 35:L18701. doi:10.1029/2008GL034864
-
(2008)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.35
, pp. L18701
-
-
Lean, J.L.1
Rind, D.H.2
-
36
-
-
70350007926
-
How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?
-
Lean JL, Rind DH (2009) How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys Res Lett 36:L15708. doi:10.1029/2009GL038932
-
(2009)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.36
, pp. L15708
-
-
Lean, J.L.1
Rind, D.H.2
-
37
-
-
68749111016
-
Decadal prediction: can it be skillful?
-
Meehl GA et al (2009) Decadal prediction: can it be skillful? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(10):1467–1485. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1
-
(2009)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.90
, Issue.10
, pp. 1467-1485
-
-
Meehl, G.A.1
-
38
-
-
77954358343
-
Decadal prediction in the Pacific region
-
Meehl GA, Hu A, Tebaldi C (2010) Decadal prediction in the Pacific region. J Clim 23(11):2959–2973. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3296.1
-
(2010)
J Clim
, vol.23
, Issue.11
, pp. 2959-2973
-
-
Meehl, G.A.1
Hu, A.2
Tebaldi, C.3
-
39
-
-
84893858451
-
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches
-
Meehl GA et al (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:2. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
-
(2014)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.95
, pp. 2
-
-
Meehl, G.A.1
-
40
-
-
80053904283
-
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300
-
Meinshausen M et al (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change 109(1):213–241. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
-
(2011)
Clim Change
, vol.109
, Issue.1
, pp. 213-241
-
-
Meinshausen, M.1
-
41
-
-
85017458266
-
-
Molteni F et al (2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4), ECMWF Tech. Memo., 656, 49pp., ECMWF, Reading, UK
-
-
-
-
42
-
-
84859909987
-
Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset
-
Morice CP et al (2012) Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. J Geophys Res 117:D08101. doi:10.1029/2011JD017187
-
(2012)
J Geophys Res
, vol.117
, pp. D08101
-
-
Morice, C.P.1
-
43
-
-
84879965844
-
An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies
-
Newman M (2013) An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 26(14):5260–5269. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00590.1
-
(2013)
J Clim
, vol.26
, Issue.14
, pp. 5260-5269
-
-
Newman, M.1
-
44
-
-
84878709250
-
Energy budget constraints on climate response
-
Otto A et al (2013) Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nat Geosci 6:415–416. doi:10.1038/ngeo1836
-
(2013)
Nat Geosci
, vol.6
, pp. 415-416
-
-
Otto, A.1
-
45
-
-
0005607198
-
The ECMWF ensemble prediction system
-
Palmer TN, Barkmeijer J, Buizza R, Petroliagis T (1997) The ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteorol Appl 4(4):301–304. doi:10.1017/S1350482797000649
-
(1997)
Meteorol Appl
, vol.4
, Issue.4
, pp. 301-304
-
-
Palmer, T.N.1
Barkmeijer, J.2
Buizza, R.3
Petroliagis, T.4
-
46
-
-
3543083343
-
Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER)
-
Palmer TN et al (2004) Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(6):853–872. doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853
-
(2004)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.85
, Issue.6
, pp. 853-872
-
-
Palmer, T.N.1
-
47
-
-
84927073291
-
Predictability of weather and climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
-
Palmer T, Hagedorn R (eds) (2006) Predictability of weather and climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9780511225017
-
(2006)
ISBN
-
-
Palmer, T.1
-
48
-
-
0031927070
-
Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modelling
-
Penland C, Matrosova L (1998) Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modelling. J Clim 11(3):483–496. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998) 011<0483:POTASS>2.0.CO;2
-
(1998)
J Clim
, vol.11
, Issue.3
, pp. 483-496
-
-
Penland, C.1
Matrosova, L.2
-
49
-
-
0032848620
-
Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
-
Power S et al (1999) Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15(5):319–324. doi:10.1007/s003820050284
-
(1999)
Clim Dyn
, vol.15
, Issue.5
, pp. 319-324
-
-
Power, S.1
-
50
-
-
0742305193
-
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
-
Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
-
(2003)
J Geophys Res
, vol.108
, Issue.D14
, pp. 4407
-
-
Rayner, N.A.1
-
51
-
-
84879768331
-
A new estimate of the average Earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011
-
Rohde R et al (2013) A new estimate of the average Earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinform. Geostat. 1:1. doi:10.4172/gigs.1000101
-
(2013)
Geoinform. Geostat.
, vol.1
, pp. 1
-
-
Rohde, R.1
-
52
-
-
84896093136
-
The NCEP climate forecast system version 2
-
Saha S et al (2013) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27(6):2185–2208. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
-
(2013)
J Clim
, vol.27
, Issue.6
, pp. 2185-2208
-
-
Saha, S.1
-
54
-
-
84963783293
-
Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation
-
Shaffrey LC, Hodson D, Robson J, Stevens DP, Hawkins E, Polo I, Stevens I, Sutton RT, Lister G, Iwi A, Smith D, Stephens A (2016) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x
-
(2016)
Clim Dyn
-
-
Shaffrey, L.C.1
Hodson, D.2
Robson, J.3
Stevens, D.P.4
Hawkins, E.5
Polo, I.6
Stevens, I.7
Sutton, R.T.8
Lister, G.9
Iwi, A.10
Smith, D.11
Stephens, A.12
-
55
-
-
84897069146
-
Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity
-
Shindell DT (2014) Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nat Clim Change 4:274–277. doi:10.1038/nclimate2136
-
(2014)
Nat Clim Change
, vol.4
, pp. 274-277
-
-
Shindell, D.T.1
-
56
-
-
34547903564
-
Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
-
Smith DM et al (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317(5839):796–799. doi:10.1126/science.1139540
-
(2007)
Science
, vol.317
, Issue.5839
, pp. 796-799
-
-
Smith, D.M.1
-
57
-
-
45349109008
-
Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis
-
Smith TM et al (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis. J Clim 21(10):2283–2296. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1
-
(2008)
J Clim
, vol.21
, Issue.10
, pp. 2283-2296
-
-
Smith, T.M.1
-
58
-
-
84863297438
-
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?
-
Smith DM, Scaife AA, Kirtman BP (2012) What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? Environ Res Lett 7(1):015602. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602
-
(2012)
Environ Res Lett
, vol.7
, Issue.1
, pp. 15602
-
-
Smith, D.M.1
Scaife, A.A.2
Kirtman, B.P.3
-
59
-
-
84888065733
-
Real-time multi-model decadal climate prediction
-
Smith DM et al (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn 41(11):2875–2888. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
-
(2013)
Clim Dyn
, vol.41
, Issue.11
, pp. 2875-2888
-
-
Smith, D.M.1
-
60
-
-
85017414836
-
On the use of seasonal to decadal climate prediction for decision-making in Europe. SRI Papers, 62, Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds
-
Soares MB, Dessai S (2014) On the use of seasonal to decadal climate prediction for decision-making in Europe. SRI Papers, 62, Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, ISSN:1753-1330
-
(2014)
ISSN
, pp. 1330-1753
-
-
Soares, M.B.1
Dessai, S.2
-
61
-
-
34547733585
-
On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections
-
Sterl A et al (2007) On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections. Clim Dyn 29:469–485. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0251-z
-
(2007)
Clim Dyn
, vol.29
, pp. 469-485
-
-
Sterl, A.1
-
62
-
-
79961015346
-
ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature
-
Stockdale TN et al (2011) ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn 37(3):455–471. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0947-3
-
(2011)
Clim Dyn
, vol.37
, Issue.3
, pp. 455-471
-
-
Stockdale, T.N.1
-
63
-
-
85017419489
-
-
Stocker TF et al (2013) Technical Summary. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
-
-
-
-
64
-
-
84888049213
-
An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models
-
Suckling EB, Smith LA (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. J Clim 26(23):9334–9347. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1
-
(2013)
J Clim
, vol.26
, Issue.23
, pp. 9334-9347
-
-
Suckling, E.B.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
65
-
-
84943739743
-
What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?
-
Sutton R, Suckling E, Hawkins E (2015) What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Philos Trans A 373:2054. doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0426
-
(2015)
Philos Trans A
, vol.373
, pp. 2054
-
-
Sutton, R.1
Suckling, E.2
Hawkins, E.3
-
66
-
-
84860684669
-
An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design
-
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
-
(2012)
Bull Am Meteorol Soc
, vol.93
, Issue.4
, pp. 485-498
-
-
Taylor, K.E.1
Stouffer, R.J.2
Meehl, G.A.3
-
67
-
-
80053912619
-
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
-
Thomson AM et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Change 109(1):77–94. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4
-
(2011)
Clim Change
, vol.109
, Issue.1
, pp. 77-94
-
-
Thomson, A.M.1
-
68
-
-
0034670345
-
The Southern Oscillation revisited: Sea level pressures, surface temperatures and precipitation
-
Trenberth KE et al (2000) The Southern Oscillation revisited: Sea level pressures, surface temperatures and precipitation. J Clim 13(24):4358–4365. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000) 013<4358:TSORSL>2.0CO;2
-
(2000)
J Clim
, vol.13
, Issue.24
, pp. 4358-4365
-
-
Trenberth, K.E.1
-
70
-
-
76749093702
-
ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB
-
van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 160pp
-
(2009)
, pp. 160
-
-
van der Linden, P.1
Mitchell, J.F.B.2
-
71
-
-
25844511098
-
Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15-year period
-
van Oldenborgh G-J et al (2005a) Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15-year period. J Clim 18(16):3250–3269. doi:10.1175/JCLI3421.1
-
(2005)
J Clim
, vol.18
, Issue.16
, pp. 3250-3269
-
-
van Oldenborgh, G.-J.1
-
72
-
-
26844445586
-
Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years?
-
van Oldenborgh G-J et al (2005b) Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years? J Clim 18(16):3240–3249. doi:10.1175/JCLI3420.1
-
(2005)
J Clim
, vol.18
, Issue.16
, pp. 3240-3249
-
-
van Oldenborgh, G.-J.1
-
73
-
-
84859008719
-
Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble
-
van Oldenborgh G-J et al (2012) Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 38(7):1263–1280. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4
-
(2012)
Clim Dyn
, vol.38
, Issue.7
, pp. 1263-1280
-
-
van Oldenborgh, G.-J.1
-
74
-
-
72049088496
-
ENSEMBLES—a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
-
Weisheimer A et al (2009) ENSEMBLES—a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys Res Lett 36(21):L21711. doi:10.1029/2008GL040896
-
(2009)
Geophys Res Lett
, vol.36
, Issue.21
, pp. L21711
-
-
Weisheimer, A.1
-
75
-
-
84901456499
-
On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts
-
Weisheimer A, Palmer T (2014) On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. J R Soc Interface 11(96):20131162. doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162
-
(2014)
J R Soc Interface
, vol.11
, Issue.96
, pp. 20131162
-
-
Weisheimer, A.1
Palmer, T.2
-
76
-
-
65449152546
-
An analysis of ENSO prediction skill in the CFS retrospective forecasts
-
Wu R, Kirtman BP, van den Dool H (2009) An analysis of ENSO prediction skill in the CFS retrospective forecasts. J Clim 22(7):1801–1818. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2565.1
-
(2009)
J Clim
, vol.22
, Issue.7
, pp. 1801-1818
-
-
Wu, R.1
Kirtman, B.P.2
van den Dool, H.3
|