메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 23, 2013, Pages 9334-9347

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

Author keywords

Ensembles; Forecast verification skill; Hindcasts; Probability forecasts models distribution; Statistical forecasting; Time series

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLES; FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL; HINDCASTS; PROBABILITY FORECASTS/MODELS/DISTRIBUTION; STATISTICAL FORECASTING;

EID: 84888049213     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (24)

References (51)
  • 1
    • 79953224507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ensembles multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER
    • Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Arribas, M. Deque, P. Rogel, and A. Weisheimer, 2011: Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ensembles multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 581-607.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 581-607
    • Alessandri, A.1    Borrelli, A.2    Navarra, A.3    Arribas, A.4    Deque, M.5    Rogel, P.6    Weisheimer, A.7
  • 2
    • 0001184024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction
    • Anderson, J., H. Van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1349-1361.
    • (1999) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.80 , pp. 1349-1361
    • Anderson, J.1    Van den Dool, H.2    Barnston, A.3    Chen, W.4    Stern, W.5    Ploshay, J.6
  • 3
    • 0028669614 scopus 로고
    • Long-lead seasonal forecasts-Where do we stand?
    • Barnston, A. G., and Coauthors, 1994: Long-lead seasonal forecasts-Where do we stand? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2097-2114.
    • (1994) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.75 , pp. 2097-2114
    • Barnston, A.G.1
  • 4
    • 84888044590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ph.D. thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science
    • Binter, R., 2012: Applied probabilistic forecasting. Ph.D. thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science, 276 pp.
    • (2012) Applied probabilistic forecasting , pp. 276
    • Binter, R.1
  • 5
    • 34249087709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper
    • Bröcker, J., and L. A. Smith, 2006: Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 382-388.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.22 , pp. 382-388
    • Bröcker, J.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 6
    • 47949105776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From ensemble forecasts to predictive distributions
    • Bröcker, J., and L. A. Smith, 2008: From ensemble forecasts to predictive distributions. Tellus, 60A, 663-678.
    • (2008) Tellus , vol.60 A , pp. 663-678
    • Bröcker, J.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 7
    • 0347382689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical prediction of global sea-surface temperature anomalies
    • Colman, A., and M. Davey, 2003: Statistical prediction of global sea-surface temperature anomalies. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1677-1697.
    • (2003) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.23 , pp. 1677-1697
    • Colman, A.1    Davey, M.2
  • 9
    • 80054809984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
    • D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. A. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, and T. N. Palmer, 2011: Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394.
    • (2011) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.116
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 10
    • 80052149882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change
    • Fildes, R., and N. Kourentzes, 2011: Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. Int. J. Forecasting, 27, 968-995.
    • (2011) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.27 , pp. 968-995
    • Fildes, R.1    Kourentzes, N.2
  • 11
    • 0036090774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: Observations
    • Giorgi, F., 2002: Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: Observations. Climate Dyn., 18, 675-691.
    • (2002) Climate Dyn. , vol.18 , pp. 675-691
    • Giorgi, F.1
  • 12
    • 0000558731 scopus 로고
    • Rational decisions
    • Good, I. J., 1952: Rational decisions. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 14A, 107-114.
    • (1952) J. Roy. Stat. Soc. , vol.14 A , pp. 107-114
    • Good, I.J.1
  • 13
    • 67650876188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette
    • Hagedorn, R., and L. A. Smith, 2009: Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteor. Appl., 16, 143-155.
    • (2009) Meteor. Appl. , vol.16 , pp. 143-155
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 14
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept
    • Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. Tellus, 57A, 219-233.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 16
    • 81455139195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperature with a perfect model approach
    • Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperature with a perfect model approach. Climate Dyn., 37, 2495-2509.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.37 , pp. 2495-2509
    • Hawkins, E.1    Robson, J.2    Sutton, R.3    Smith, D.4    Keenlyside, N.5
  • 17
    • 33646348872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensembles-based predictions of climate and their impacts
    • doi:10.1029/2004EO520005
    • Hewitt, C. D., and D. J. Griggs, 2004: Ensembles-based predictions of climate and their impacts. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, 566, doi:10.1029/2004EO520005.
    • (2004) Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union , vol.85 , pp. 566
    • Hewitt, C.D.1    Griggs, D.J.2
  • 20
    • 18544385000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature
    • Keenlyide, N. S., M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, and U. Schulzweida, 2005: A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature. Tellus, 57A, 340-356.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 340-356
    • Keenlyide, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Botzet, M.3    Jungclaus, J.4    Schulzweida, U.5
  • 21
    • 43049138035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
    • Keenlyide, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84-88.
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , pp. 84-88
    • Keenlyide, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Kornblueh, L.4    Roeckner, E.5
  • 22
    • 84861372930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
    • L10701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051644
    • Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2012: Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051644.
    • (2012) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.39
    • Kim, H.-M.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 23
    • 79955009408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple empirical model for decadal prediction
    • Krueger, O., and J.-S. von Storch, 2011: A simple empirical model for decadal prediction. J. Climate, 24, 1276-1283.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 1276-1283
    • Krueger, O.1    von Storch, J.-S.2
  • 24
    • 58049091536 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean
    • L10701, doi:10.1029/2008GL033576
    • Laepple, T., S. Jewson, and K. Coughlin, 2008: Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10701, doi:10.1029/2008GL033576.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.35
    • Laepple, T.1    Jewson, S.2    Coughlin, K.3
  • 25
    • 33750841782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing
    • Lee, T. C. K., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and M. Tsao, 2006: Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing. J. Climate, 19, 5305-5318.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 5305-5318
    • Lee, T.C.K.1    Zwiers, F.W.2    Zhang, X.3    Tsao, M.4
  • 26
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 27
    • 68749111016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?
    • Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1467-1485.
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1467-1485
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 28
    • 84888039040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Met Office. Met Office Rep.
    • Met Office, 2011: 3-month outlook for UK contingency planning. Met Office Rep., 12 pp. [Available online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/g/o/3-month_Outlook_user_guidance-150.pdf.]
    • (2011) 3-month outlook for UK contingency planning , pp. 12
  • 31
    • 68749116591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initializing decadal climate predictions with GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic
    • Pohlmann, H., J. H. Köhl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2009: Initializing decadal climate predictions with GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 3926-3938.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3926-3938
    • Pohlmann, H.1    Köhl, J.H.2    Stammer, D.3    Marotzke, J.4
  • 32
    • 70349249491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?
    • L13704, doi:10.1029/2009GL038082
    • Reifen, C., and R. Toumi, 2009: Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13704, doi:10.1029/2009GL038082.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Reifen, C.1    Toumi, R.2
  • 33
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, S.2    Colman, A.W.3    Folland, C.K.4    Harris, G.R.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 35
    • 0001977937 scopus 로고
    • Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics
    • Smith, L. A., 1992: Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics. Physica D, 58 (1-4), 50-76.
    • (1992) Physica D , vol.58 , Issue.1-4 , pp. 50-76
    • Smith, L.A.1
  • 36
    • 0000974708 scopus 로고
    • Local optimal prediction: Exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition
    • Smith, L. A., 1994: Local optimal prediction: Exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 348A, 371-381.
    • (1994) Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. , vol.348 A , pp. 371-381
    • Smith, L.A.1
  • 37
  • 38
    • 0037133244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What might we learn from climate forecasts?
    • Smith, L. A., 2002: What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 4, 2487-2492.
    • (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.4 , pp. 2487-2492
    • Smith, L.A.1
  • 40
    • 0001112454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift
    • Stockdale, T. N., 1997: Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 809-818.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 809-818
    • Stockdale, T.N.1
  • 43
    • 34547182283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions
    • Troccoli, A., and T. N. Palmer, 2007: Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 365A, 2179-2191.
    • (2007) Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. , vol.365 A , pp. 2179-2191
    • Troccoli, A.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 45
    • 0028328071 scopus 로고
    • Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods
    • Van den Dool, H. M., 1994: Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 20, 247-270.
    • (1994) Dyn. Atmos. Oceans , vol.20 , pp. 247-270
    • Van den Dool, H.M.1
  • 47
    • 25844511098 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15-year period
    • van Oldenborgh, G. J., M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T. Stockdale, and D. Anderson, 2005: Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15-year period. J. Climate, 18, 3250-3269.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 3250-3269
    • van Oldenborgh, G.J.1    Balmaseda, M.2    Ferranti, L.3    Stockdale, T.4    Anderson, D.5
  • 49
    • 67649443942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can multi-model combination really enhance prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?
    • Weigela, A. P., and N. E. Bowlerb, 2009: Can multi-model combination really enhance prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 535-539.
    • (2009) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.135 , pp. 535-539
    • Weigela, A.P.1    Bowlerb, N.E.2
  • 50
    • 72049088496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensembles-A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
    • L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896
    • Weisheimer, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Ensembles-A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Weisheimer, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.