On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 11, Issue 96, 2014, Pages

  Weisheimer, A ^a,b   Palmer, T N ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate; Forecasts; Reliability; Seasonal

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECASTS; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; SEASONAL; SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST; SEASONAL FORECASTS;

RELIABILITY;

RAIN;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE; COLD; DECISION MAKING; EL NINO; FORECASTING; PRECIPITATION; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY; SEA ICE; SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST; SNOW COVER; SUMMER; SYSTEMATIC ERROR; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER; WINTER; ANALYSIS; EUROPE; REPRODUCIBILITY; SEA; SEASON; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE; DECISION MAKING; EUROPE; FORECASTING; MODELS, THEORETICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; SEASONS; WEATHER;

EID: 84901456499     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.1162     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Cane M, Zebiak S, Dolan S. 1986 Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321, 827-831. (doi:10.1038/321827a0)
2. Arribas A et al. 2011 The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev. 139, 1891-1910. (doi:10.1175/2010MWR3615.1)
3. Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT, Balmaseda MA, Doblas-Reyes F, Ferranti L, Mogensen K, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Vitart F. 2011 ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. Clim. Dyn. 37, 455-471. (doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0947-3)
4. Saha S et al. 2013 The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Clim. 27, 2185-2208. (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1)
5. Lorenz EN. 1963 Deterministic non-periodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141. (doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020〈0130:DNF〉2.0.CO;2)
6. Palmer TN, Anderson DLT. 1994 The prospects for seasonal forecasting - a review paper. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 755-793.
7. Jin E et al. 2008 Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Clim. Dyn. 31, 647-664. (doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3)
8. Weisheimer A et al. 2009 ENSEMBLES: a new multimodel ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L21711. (doi:10.1029/ 2009GL040896)
9. Dessai S, Bruno Soares M. 2013 Literature review of the use of seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) predictions across all sectors. Deliverable report 12.1 of the EUPORIAS project. Available from http://euporias-test2.wdfiles.com/ local-files/events-meetings/D12.1.pdf.
10. Jolliffe I, Stephenson D. 2012 Forecast verification. A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science, p. 292. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
11. Foresight. 2012 Reducing the risks of future disasters: priorities for decision makers. London, UK: The Government Office of Science.
12. Murphy AH. 1973 A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor. 12, 595-600. (doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012〈0595:ANVPOT〉2.0. CO;2)
13. Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT, Alves JO, Balmaseda MA. 1998 Global seasonal rainfall forecasts with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature 392, 370-373. (doi:10.1038/32861)
14. Molteni F et al. 2011 The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4). ECMWF Tech. Memorandum 656, 1-49.
15. Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA. 2012 Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the northern hemisphere winter. Clim. Dyn. 39, 2957-2973. (doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6)
16. Dutra E, Diamantakis M, Tsonevsky I, Zsoter E, Wetterhall F, Stockdale T, Richardson D, Pappenberger F. 2013 The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 14, 256-262. (doi:10.1002/asl2.448)
17. Giorgi F, Francisco R. 2000 Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM. Clim. Dyn. 16, 169-182. (doi:10.1007/PL00013733)
18. Dee DP et al. 2011 The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-597. (doi:10.1002/qj.828)
19. Adler RF et al. 2003 The version: 2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor. 4, 1147-1167. (doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004〈1147:TVGPCP〉2.0.CO;2)
20. Brier GW. 1950 Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 78, 1-3. (doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950) 078〈0001:VOFEIT〉2.0.CO;2)
21. Mason SJ. 2004 On using 'climatology' as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Weather Rev. 132, 1891-1895. (doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132〈1891:OUCAAR〉2.0.CO;2)
22. Wilks DS. 2011 Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, p. 704. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
23. Jung T et al. 2012 High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in project Athena: experimental design, model climate and seasonal forecast skill. J. Clim. 25, 3155-3172. (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00265.1)
24. Dawson A, Palmer TN, Corti S. 2012 Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L21805. (doi:10.1029/2012GL053284)
25. Cagnazzo C, Manzini E. 2009 Impact of the stratosphere on the winter tropospheric teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic and European regions. J. Clim. 22, 1223-1238. (doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2549.1)
26. Marshall A, Scaife A. 2009 Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D18110. (doi:10.1029/2009JD011737)
27. Weisheimer A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Jung T, Palmer TN. 2011a On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05704. (doi:10.1029/2010GL046455)
28. Buizza R, Miller MJ, Palmer TN. 1999 Stochastic simulation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887-2908. (doi:10.1002/qj.49712556006)
29. Palmer TN. 2001 A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: a proposal for nonlocal stochastic-dynamic parametrisation in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 279-304. (Pubitemid 32257521)
30. Palmer TN. 2012 Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138, 841-861. (doi:10.1002/qj.1923)
31. Weisheimer A, Corti S, Palmer T, Vitart F. 2014 Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372, 20130290. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0290)
32. Weisheimer A, Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2011b Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L16703. (doi:10.1029/2011GL048123)
33. Shukla J et al. 2010 Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 1407-1412. (doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2900.1)
34. Shapiro M et al. 2010 An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 1377-1388. (doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2944.1)
35. Palmer TN. 2011 A CERN for climate change. Phys. World 24, 14-15.
36. Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes F, Weisheimer A, Rodwell M. 2008 Reliability of climate change projections of precipitation: towards 'seamless' climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 459-470. (doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459)