Worldwide Exposures to Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Associated Health Effects: Current Knowledge and Data Gaps

Circulation

Volumn 133, Issue 23, 2016, Pages 2314-2333

  Tzoulaki, Ioanna ^a,b   Elliott, Paul ^b,c,d   Kontis, Vasilis ^b   Ezzati, Majid ^b,c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF IOANNINA   (Greece)

^b IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c WELLCOME TRUST SANGER INSTITUTE   (United Kingdom)

^d WHO Collaborating Centre on NCD Surveillance and Epidemiology   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

disease prevention; epidemiology; global health; population surveillance; risk factors

Indexed keywords

ANTIDIABETIC AGENT; BIOLOGICAL MARKER; LEAD;

AIR POLLUTION; ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION; ARTICLE; BODY MASS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CARIBBEAN; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; DIABETES MELLITUS; DIET; EASTERN EUROPE; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; EXPOSURE; HUMAN; HYPERTENSION; INCOME; INDOOR AIR POLLUTION; OBESITY; PHYSICAL INACTIVITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; COMORBIDITY; HEALTH; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HEALTH STATUS; LEGISLATION AND JURISPRUDENCE; LIFESTYLE; MANAGEMENT; MORTALITY; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICE; PROGNOSIS; RISK FACTOR; RISK REDUCTION;

CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; COMORBIDITY; GLOBAL HEALTH; HEALTH POLICY; HEALTH STATUS; HUMANS; LIFE STYLE; POLICY MAKING; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICES; PROGNOSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; RISK REDUCTION BEHAVIOR;

EID: 84973882691     PISSN: 00097322     EISSN: 15244539     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.115.008718     Document Type: Article

References (179)

1. World Health Organization. Global Health Estimates: Deaths by Cause, Age, Sex and Country, 2000-2012. Geneva: WHO; 2014.
2. Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, Lim S, Shibuya K, Aboyans V, Abraham J, Adair T, Aggarwal R, Ahn SY, Alvarado M, Anderson HR, Anderson LM, Andrews KG, Atkinson C, Baddour LM, Barker-Collo S, Bartels DH, Bell ML, Benjamin EJ, Bennett D, Bhalla K, Bikbov B, Bin Abdulhak A, Birbeck G, Blyth F, Bolliger I, Boufous S, Bucello C, Burch M, Burney P, Carapetis J, Chen H, Chou D, Chugh SS, Coffeng LE, Colan SD, Colquhoun S, Colson KE, Condon J, Connor MD, Cooper LT, Corriere M, Cortinovis M, de Vaccaro KC, Couser W, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cross M, Dabhadkar KC, Dahodwala N, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Delossantos A, Denenberg J, Des Jarlais DC, Dharmaratne SD, Dorsey ER, Driscoll T, Duber H, Ebel B, Erwin PJ, Espindola P, Ezzati M, Feigin V, Flaxman AD, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FG, Franklin R, Fransen M, Freeman MK, Gabriel SE, Gakidou E, Gaspari F, Gillum RF, Gonzalez-Medina D, Halasa YA, Haring D, Harrison JE, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hoen B, Hotez PJ, Hoy D, Jacobsen KH, James SL, Jasrasaria R, Jayaraman S, Johns N, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum N, Keren A, Khoo JP, Knowlton LM, Kobusingye O, Koranteng A, Krishnamurthi R, Lipnick M, Lipshultz SE, Ohno SL, Mabweijano J, MacIntyre MF, Mallinger L, March L, Marks GB, Marks R, Matsumori A, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McAnulty JH, McDermott MM, McGrath J, Mensah GA, Merriman TR, Michaud C, Miller M, Miller TR, Mock C, Mocumbi AO, Mokdad AA, Moran A, Mulholland K, Nair MN, Naldi L, Narayan KM, Nasseri K, Norman P, O'Donnell M, Omer SB, Ortblad K, Osborne R, Ozgediz D, Pahari B, Pandian JD, Rivero AP, Padilla RP, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Phillips D, Pierce K, Pope CA 3rd, Porrini E, Pourmalek F, Raju M, Ranganathan D, Rehm JT, Rein DB, Remuzzi G, Rivara FP, Roberts T, De León FR, Rosenfeld LC, Rushton L, Sacco RL, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Sanman E, Schwebel DC, Segui-Gomez M, Shepard DS, Singh D, Singleton J, Sliwa K, Smith E, Steer A, Taylor JA, Thomas B, Tleyjeh IM, Towbin JA, Truelsen T, Undurraga EA, Venketasubramanian N, Vijayakumar L, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wang M, Wang W, Watt K, Weinstock MA, Weintraub R, Wilkinson JD, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Yeh PH, Yip P, Zabetian A, Zheng ZJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJ, AlMazroa MA, Memish ZA. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380:2095-2128. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0.
3. Ezzati M, Obermeyer Z, Tzoulaki I, Mayosi BM, Elliott P, Leon DA. Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends. Nat Rev Cardiol. 2015;12:508-530. doi: 10.1038/nrcardio.2015.82.
4. Di Cesare M, Khang YH, Asaria P, Blakely T, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Guerrero R, Ikeda N, Kyobutungi C, Msyamboza KP, Oum S, Lynch JW, Marmot MG, Ezzati M; Lancet NCD Action Group. Inequalities in noncommunicable diseases and effective responses. Lancet. 2013;381:585-597. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61851-0.
5. Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M. Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study. Lancet. 2014;384:427-437. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60616-4.
6. Peto R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M, Heath C Jr. Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics. Lancet. 1992;339:1268-1278.
7. Murray CJ, Lopez AD. Global mortality, disability, and the contribution of risk factors: Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet. 1997;349:1436-1442. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(96)07495-8.
8. Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. vols 1 and 2. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2004:2248.
9. Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S, Murray CJ; Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. Lancet. 2002;360:1347-1360. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)11403-6.
10. Ezzati M, Henley SJ, Thun MJ, Lopez AD. Role of smoking in global and regional cardiovascular mortality. Circulation. 2005;112:489-497. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.104.521708.
11. Ezzati M, Hoorn SV, Rodgers A, Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Murray CJ; Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors. Lancet. 2003;362:271-280.
12. World Health Organization. Global Health Risks: Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2009.
13. Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H, Amann M, Anderson HR, Andrews KG, Aryee M, Atkinson C, Bacchus LJ, Bahalim AN, Balakrishnan K, Balmes J, Barker-Collo S, Baxter A, Bell ML, Blore JD, Blyth F, Bonner C, Borges G, Bourne R, Boussinesq M, Brauer M, Brooks P, Bruce NG, Brunekreef B, Bryan-Hancock C, Bucello C, Buchbinder R, Bull F, Burnett RT, Byers TE, Calabria B, Carapetis J, Carnahan E, Chafe Z, Charlson F, Chen H, Chen JS, Cheng AT, Child JC, Cohen A, Colson KE, Cowie BC, Darby S, Darling S, Davis A, Degenhardt L, Dentener F, Des Jarlais DC, Devries K, Dherani M, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Driscoll T, Edmond K, Ali SE, Engell RE, Erwin PJ, Fahimi S, Falder G, Farzadfar F, Ferrari A, Finucane MM, Flaxman S, Fowkes FG, Freedman G, Freeman MK, Gakidou E, Ghosh S, Giovannucci E, Gmel G, Graham K, Grainger R, Grant B, Gunnell D, Gutierrez HR, Hall W, Hoek HW, Hogan A, Hosgood HD 3rd, Hoy D, Hu H, Hubbell BJ, Hutchings SJ, Ibeanusi SE, Jacklyn GL, Jasrasaria R, Jonas JB, Kan H, Kanis JA, Kassebaum N, Kawakami N, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khoo JP, Kok C, Laden F, Lalloo R, Lan Q, Lathlean T, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Li Y, Lin JK, Lipshultz SE, London S, Lozano R, Lu Y, Mak J, Malekzadeh R, Mallinger L, Marcenes W, March L, Marks R, Martin R, McGale P, McGrath J, Mehta S, Mensah GA, Merriman TR, Micha R, Michaud C, Mishra V, Mohd Hanafiah K, Mokdad AA, Morawska L, Mozaffarian D, Murphy T, Naghavi M, Neal B, Nelson PK, Nolla JM, Norman R, Olives C, Omer SB, Orchard J, Osborne R, Ostro B, Page A, Pandey KD, Parry CD, Passmore E, Patra J, Pearce N, Pelizzari PM, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pope D, Pope CA 3rd, Powles J, Rao M, Razavi H, Rehfuess EA, Rehm JT, Ritz B, Rivara FP, Roberts T, Robinson C, Rodriguez-Portales JA, Romieu I, Room R, Rosenfeld LC, Roy A, Rushton L, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanman E, Sapkota A, Seedat S, Shi P, Shield K, Shivakoti R, Singh GM, Sleet DA, Smith E, Smith KR, Stapelberg NJ, Steenland K, Stöckl H, Stovner LJ, Straif K, Straney L, Thurston GD, Tran JH, Van Dingenen R, van Donkelaar A, Veerman JL, Vijayakumar L, Weintraub R, Weissman MM, White RA, Whiteford H, Wiersma ST, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams W, Wilson N, Woolf AD, Yip P, Zielinski JM, Lopez AD, Murray CJ, Ezzati M, AlMazroa MA, Memish ZA. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380:2224-2260. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8.
14. Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases Collaboration. Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2014;2:634-647.
15. Danaei G, Lawes CM, Vander Hoorn S, Murray CJ, Ezzati M. Global and regional mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to higher-than-optimum blood glucose concentration: comparative risk assessment. Lancet. 2006;368:1651-1659. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69700-6.
16. Danaei G, Ding EL, Mozaffarian D, Taylor B, Rehm J, Murray CJ, Ezzati M. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000058. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000058.
17. Stevens G, Dias RH, Thomas KJ, Rivera JA, Carvalho N, Barquera S, Hill K, Ezzati M. Characterizing the epidemiological transition in Mexico: national and subnational burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e125. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050125.
18. Danaei G, Rimm EB, Oza S, Kulkarni SC, Murray CJ, Ezzati M. The promise of prevention: the effects of four preventable risk factors on national life expectancy and life expectancy disparities by race and county in the United States. PLoS Med. 2010;7:e1000248. doi: 10.1371/journal. pmed.1000248.
19. Harper S, Lynch J, Smith GD. Social determinants and the decline of cardiovascular diseases: understanding the links. Annu Rev Public Health. 2011;32:39-69. doi: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031210-101234.
20. Vasan RS. Biomarkers of cardiovascular disease: molecular basis and practical considerations. Circulation. 2006;113:2335-2362. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.104.482570.
21. Hackam DG, Anand SS. Emerging risk factors for atherosclerotic vascular disease: a critical review of the evidence. JAMA. 2003;290:932-940. doi: 10.1001/jama.290.7.932.
22. Tzoulaki I, Siontis KC, Evangelou E, Ioannidis JP. Bias in associations of emerging biomarkers with cardiovascular disease. JAMA Intern Med. 2013;173:664-671. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.3018.
23. Siontis GC, Ioannidis JP. Risk factors and interventions with statistically significant tiny effects. Int J Epidemiol. 2011;40:1292-1307. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyr099.
24. Ioannidis JP, Tzoulaki I. Minimal and null predictive effects for the most popular blood biomarkers of cardiovascular disease. Circ Res. 2012;110:658-662. doi: 10.1161/RES.0b013e31824da8ad.
25. Nissen SE. Biomarkers in cardiovascular medicine: the shame of publication bias. JAMA Intern Med. 2013;173:671-672. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.4074.
26. Davey Smith G, Hemani G. Mendelian randomization: genetic anchors for causal inference in epidemiological studies. Hum Mol Genet. 2014;23(R1):R89-R98. doi: 10.1093/hmg/ddu328.
27. Sheehan NA, Didelez V, Burton PR, Tobin MD. Mendelian randomisation and causal inference in observational epidemiology. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e177. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050177.
28. Jansen H, Samani NJ, Schunkert H. Mendelian randomization studies in coronary artery disease. Eur Heart J. 2014;35:1917-1924. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehu208.
29. Nelson CP, Hamby SE, Saleheen D, Hopewell JC, Zeng L, Assimes TL, Kanoni S, Willenborg C, Burgess S, Amouyel P, Anand S, Blankenberg S, Boehm BO, Clarke RJ, Collins R, Dedoussis G, Farrall M, Franks PW, Groop L, Hall AS, Hamsten A, Hengstenberg C, Hovingh GK, Ingelsson E, Kathiresan S, Kee F, König IR, Kooner J, Lehtimäki T, März W, McPherson R, Metspalu A, Nieminen MS, O'Donnell CJ, Palmer CN, Peters A, Perola M, Reilly MP, Ripatti S, Roberts R, Salomaa V, Shah SH, Schreiber S, Siegbahn A, Thorsteinsdottir U, Veronesi G, Wareham N, Willer CJ, Zalloua PA, Erdmann J, Deloukas P, Watkins H, Schunkert H, Danesh J, Thompson JR, Samani NJ; CARDIo GRAM+C4D Consortium. Genetically determined height and coronary artery disease. N Engl J Med. 2015;372:1608-1618. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1404881.
30. Wensley F, Gao P, Burgess S, Kaptoge S, Di Angelantonio E, Shah T, Engert JC, Clarke R, Davey-Smith G, Nordestgaard BG, Saleheen D, Samani NJ, Sandhu M, Anand S, Pepys MB, Smeeth L, Whittaker J, Casas JP, Thompson SG, Hingorani AD, Danesh J; C Reactive Protein Coronary Heart Disease Genetics Collaboration (CCGC). Association between C reactive protein and coronary heart disease: Mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data. BMJ. 2011;342:d548.
31. Elliott P, Chambers JC, Zhang W, Clarke R, Hopewell JC, Peden JF, Erdmann J, Braund P, Engert JC, Bennett D, Coin L, Ashby D, Tzoulaki I, Brown IJ, Mt-Isa S, McCarthy MI, Peltonen L, Freimer NB, Farrall M, Ruokonen A, Hamsten A, Lim N, Froguel P, Waterworth DM, Vollenweider P, Waeber G, Jarvelin MR, Mooser V, Scott J, Hall AS, Schunkert H, Anand SS, Collins R, Samani NJ, Watkins H, Kooner JS. Genetic Loci associated with C-reactive protein levels and risk of coronary heart disease. JAMA. 2009;302:37-48. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.954.
32. Yusuf S, Hawken S, Ounpuu S, Dans T, Avezum A, Lanas F, McQueen M, Budaj A, Pais P, Varigos J, Lisheng L; INTERHEART Study Investigators. Effect of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with myocardial infarction in 52 countries (the INTERHEART study): case-control study. Lancet. 2004;364:937-952. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17018-9.
33. Joint effects of systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol on cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific region. Circulation. 2005;112:3384-3390.
34. Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Ezzati M, Woodward M, Rimm EB, Danaei G. Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1.8 million participants. Lancet. 2014;383:970-983.
35. Kannel WB, Dawber TR, Kagan A, Revotskie N, Stokes J 3rd. Factors of risk in the development of coronary heart disease-six year follow-up experience. The Framingham Study. Ann Intern Med. 1961;55:33-50.
36. Hammond EC, Horn D. Smoking and death rates: report on forty-four months of follow-up of 187,783 men. 2. Death rates by cause. J Am Med Assoc. 1958;166:1294-1308.
37. Doll R, Hill AB. Lung cancer and other causes of death in relation to smoking; a second report on the mortality of British doctors. Br Med J. 1956;2:1071-1081.
38. Dorn HF. Tobacco consumption and mortality from cancer and other diseases. Public Health Rep. 1959;74:581-593.
39. Doyle JT, Dawber TR, Kannel WB, Heslin AS, Kahn HA. Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease. Combined experience of the Albany and Framingham studies. N Engl J Med. 1962;266:796-801.
40. Singh GM, Danaei G, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Woodward M, Wormser D, Kaptoge S, Whitlock G, Qiao Q, Lewington S, Di Angelantonio E, Vander Hoorn S, Lawes CM, Ali MK, Mozaffarian D, Ezzati M Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group; Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC); Diabetes Epidemiology: Collaborative analysis of Diagnostic criteria in Europe (DECODE); Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration (ERFC); Prospective Studies Collaboration (PSC). The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a pooled analysis. PLoS One. 2013;8:e65174. doi: 10.1371/journal. pone.0065174.
41. Amarenco P, Steg PG. The paradox of cholesterol and stroke. Lancet. 2007;370:1803-1804. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61751-6.
42. Zhang X, Patel A, Horibe H, Wu Z, Barzi F, Rodgers A, MacMahon S, Woodward M; Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Cholesterol, coronary heart disease, and stroke in the Asia Pacific region. Int J Epidemiol. 2003;32:563-572.
43. Law MR, Thompson SG, Wald NJ. Assessing possible hazards of reducing serum cholesterol. BMJ. 1994;308:373-379.
44. MacMahon S, Peto R, Cutler J, Collins R, Sorlie P, Neaton J, Abbott R, Godwin J, Dyer A, Stamler J. Blood pressure, stroke, and coronary heart disease. Part 1: Prolonged differences in blood pressure: prospective observational studies corrected for the regression dilution bias. Lancet. 1990;335:765-774.
45. Law MR, Wald NJ, Wu T, Hackshaw A, Bailey A. Systematic underestimation of association between serum cholesterol concentration and ischaemic heart disease in observational studies: data from the BUPA study. BMJ. 1994;308:363-366.
46. The Health Consequences of Smoking - 50 Years of Progress. A Report of the Surgeon General, 2014. Washington, DC; US Department of Health and Human Services: 2014.
47. Thun MJ, Apicella LF, Henley SJ. Smoking vs other risk factors as the cause of smoking-attributable deaths: confounding in the courtroom. JAMA. 2000;284:706-712.
48. Holman RR, Sourij H, Califf RM. Cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering drugs or strategies in type 2 diabetes. Lancet. 2014;383:2008-2017. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60794-7.
49. Skyler JS, Bergenstal R, Bonow RO, Buse J, Deedwania P, Gale EA, Howard BV, Kirkman MS, Kosiborod M, Reaven P, Sherwin RS; American Diabetes Association; American College of Cardiology Foundation; American Heart Association. Intensive glycemic control and the prevention of cardiovascular events: implications of the ACCORD, ADVANCE, and VA diabetes trials: a position statement of the American Diabetes Association and a scientific statement of the American College of Cardiology Foundation and the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2009;119:351-357. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.108.191305.
50. Ismail-Beigi F, Moghissi E, Tiktin M, Hirsch IB, Inzucchi SE, Genuth S. Individualizing glycemic targets in type 2 diabetes mellitus: implications of recent clinical trials. Ann Intern Med. 2011;154:554-559. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-154-8-201104190-00007.
51. Cefalu WT. Glycemic targets and cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:2633-2635. doi: 10.1056/NEJMe0803831.
52. Keys A. Obesity and degenerative heart disease. Am J Public Health Nations Health. 1954;44:864-871.
53. Build and Blood Pressure Study. vol 1. Chicago, IL: Society of Actuaries; 1959.
54. Larsson B, Svärdsudd K, Welin L, Wilhelmsen L, Björntorp P, Tibblin G. Abdominal adipose tissue distribution, obesity, and risk of cardiovascular disease and death: 13 year follow up of participants in the study of men born in 1913. BMJ (Clin Res Ed). 1984;288:1401-1404.
55. Manson JE, Stampfer MJ, Hennekens CH, Willett WC. Body weight and longevity. A reassessment. JAMA. 1987;257:353-358.
56. Huxley R, Mendis S, Zheleznyakov E, Reddy S, Chan J. Body mass index, waist circumference and waist:hip ratio as predictors of cardiovascular risk-a review of the literature. Eur J Clin Nutr. 2010;64:16-22. doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2009.68.
57. Finucane MM, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Danaei G, Lin JK, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Gutierrez HR, Lu Y, Bahalim AN, Farzadfar F, Riley LM, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Body Mass Index). National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9.1 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377:557-567. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62037-5.
58. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. Lancet. 2016;387:1377-1396
59. Cardiovascular effects of intensive lifestyle intervention in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2013;369:145-154.
60. Douketis JD, Macie C, Thabane L, Williamson DF. Systematic review of long-term weight loss studies in obese adults: clinical significance and applicability to clinical practice. Int J Obes (Lond). 2005;29:1153-1167. doi: 10.1038/sj.ijo.0802982.
61. Aucott L, Poobalan A, Smith WC, Avenell A, Jung R, Broom J, Grant AM. Weight loss in obese diabetic and non-diabetic individuals and long-term diabetes outcomes-a systematic review. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2004;6:85-94.
62. Poobalan A, Aucott L, Smith WC, Avenell A, Jung R, Broom J, Grant AM. Effects of weight loss in overweight/obese individuals and long-term lipid outcomes-a systematic review. Obes Rev. 2004;5:43-50.
63. Kwok CS, Pradhan A, Khan MA, Anderson SG, Keavney BD, Myint PK, Mamas MA, Loke YK. Bariatric surgery and its impact on cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Cardiol. 2014;173:20-28. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2014.02.026.
64. Poirier P, Cornier MA, Mazzone T, Stiles S, Cummings S, Klein S, McCullough PA, Ren Fielding C, Franklin BA; American Heart Association Obesity Committee of the Council on Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Metabolism. Bariatric surgery and cardiovascular risk factors: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2011;123:1683-1701. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0b013e3182149099.
65. McPherson R. Obesity and ischemic heart disease: defining the link. Circ Res. 2015;116:570-571. doi: 10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.115.305826.
66. Nordestgaard BG, Palmer TM, Benn M, Zacho J, Tybjaerg-Hansen A, Davey Smith G, Timpson NJ. The effect of elevated body mass index on ischemic heart disease risk: causal estimates from a Mendelian randomisation approach. PLoS Med. 2012;9:e1001212. doi: 10.1371/journal. pmed.1001212.
67. Holmes MV, Lange LA, Palmer T, Lanktree MB, North KE, Almoquera B, Buxbaum S, Chandrupatla HR, Elbers CC, Guo Y, Hoogeveen RC, Li J, Li YR, Swerdlow DI, Cushman M, Price TS, Curtis SP, Fornage M, Hakonarson H, Patel SR, Redline S, Siscovick DS, Tsai MY, Wilson JG, van der Schouw YT, Fitzgerald GA, Hingorani AD, Casas JP, de Bakker PI, Rich SS, Schadt EE, Asselbergs FW, Reiner AP, Keating BJ. Causal effects of body mass index on cardiometabolic traits and events: a Mendelian randomization analysis. Am J Hum Genet. 2014;94:198-208.
68. Kuulasmaa K, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Dobson A, Fortmann S, Sans S, Tolonen H, Evans A, Ferrario M, Tuomilehto J. Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet. 2000;355:675-687.
69. Luepker RV. WHO MONICA project: what have we learned and where to go from here? Public Health Rev. 2012;33:373-396
70. Shaper AG. Cardiovascular disease in the tropics. IV. Coronary heart disease. Br Med J. 1972;4:32-35.
71. Kengne AP, Ntyintyane LM, Mayosi BM. A systematic overview of prospective cohort studies of cardiovascular disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Cardiovasc J Afr. 2012;23:103-112. doi: 10.5830/CVJA-2011-042.
72. Prospective Studies Collaboration. Collaborative overview ('meta-analysis') of prospective observational studies of the associations of usual blood pressure and usual cholesterol levels with common causes of death: Protocol for the second cycle of the prospective studies collaboration. J Cardiovasc Risk. 1999;6:315-320.
73. Woodward M, Huxley R, Ueshima H, Fang X, Kim HC, Lam TH. The Asia pacific cohort studies collaboration: a decade of achievements. Glob Heart. 2012;7:343-351. doi: 10.1016/j.gheart.2012.10.001.
74. Woodward M, Huxley H, Lam TH, Barzi F, Lawes CM, Ueshima H; Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. A comparison of the associations between risk factors and cardiovascular disease in Asia and Australasia. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2005;12:484-491.
75. Ezzati M, Lopez AD. Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000. Lancet. 2003;362:847-852. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14338-3.
76. Danaei G, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Cowan MJ, Finucane MM, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Lu Y, Rao M, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group. The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008. Circulation. 2013;127:1493-502, 1502e1. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.001470.
77. Farzadfar F, Finucane MM, Danaei G, Pelizzari PM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Lin JK, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Cholesterol). National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3.0 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377:578-586. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62038-7.
78. Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lin JK, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Lim SS, Riley LM, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Blood Pressure). National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377:568-577. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62036-3.
79. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. Lancet. 2016;387:1513-1530
80. Stevens GA, Singh GM, Lu Y, Danaei G, Lin JK, Finucane MM, Bahalim AN, McIntire RK, Gutierrez HR, Cowan M, Paciorek CJ, Farzadfar F, Riley L, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Body Mass Index). National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences. Popul Health Metr. 2012;10:22. doi: 10.1186/1478-7954-10-22.
81. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: A pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331,288 participants. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2015;3:624-637.
82. Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lu Y, Singh GM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Farzadfar F, Khang YH, Stevens GA, Rao M, Ali MK, Riley LM, Robinson CA, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Blood Glucose). National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. Lancet. 2011;378:31-40. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60679-X.
83. Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, d'Espaignet ET, Stevens GA, Commar A, Tuyl F, Hudson I, Shibuya K. Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control. Lancet. 2015;385:966-976. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60264-1.
84. Ezzati M, Riboli E. Behavioral and dietary risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. N Engl J Med. 2013;369:954-964. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1203528.
85. Fries JF. Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med. 1980;303:130-135.
86. Ronksley PE, Brien SE, Turner BJ, Mukamal KJ, Ghali WA. Association of alcohol consumption with selected cardiovascular disease outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. 2011;342:d671.
87. Roerecke M, Rehm J. The cardioprotective association of average alcohol consumption and ischaemic heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Addiction. 2012;107:1246-1260. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2012.03780.x.
88. Bergmann MM, Rehm J, Klipstein-Grobusch K, Boeing H, Schütze M, Drogan D, Overvad K, Tjønneland A, Halkjær J, Fagherazzi G, Boutron-Ruault MC, Clavel-Chapelon F, Teucher B, Kaaks R, Trichopoulou A, Benetou V, Trichopoulos D, Palli D, Pala V, Tumino R, Vineis P, Beulens JW, Redondo ML, Duell EJ, Molina-Montes E, Navarro C, Barricarte A, Arriola L, Allen NE, Crowe FL, Khaw KT, Wareham N, Romaguera D, Wark PA, Romieu I, Nunes L, Riboli E, Ferrari P. The association of pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause of death in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study. Int J Epidemiol. 2013;42:1772-1790. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyt154.
89. Shield KD, Parry C, Rehm J. Chronic diseases and conditions related to alcohol use. Alcohol Res. 2013;35:155-173.
90. Holmes MV, Dale CE, Zuccolo L, Silverwood RJ, Guo Y, Ye Z, Prieto-Merino D, Dehghan A, Trompet S, Wong A, Cavadino A, Drogan D, Padmanabhan S, Li S, Yesupriya A, Leusink M, Sundstrom J, Hubacek JA, Pikhart H, Swerdlow DI, Panayiotou AG, Borinskaya SA, Finan C, Shah S, Kuchenbaecker KB, Shah T, Engmann J, Folkersen L, Eriksson P, Ricceri F, Melander O, Sacerdote C, Gamble DM, Rayaprolu S, Ross OA, McLachlan S, Vikhireva O, Sluijs I, Scott RA, Adamkova V, Flicker L, Bockxmeer FM, Power C, Marques-Vidal P, Meade T, Marmot MG, Ferro JM, Paulos-Pinheiro S, Humphries SE, Talmud PJ, Mateo Leach I, Verweij N, Linneberg A, Skaaby T, Doevendans PA, Cramer MJ, van der Harst P, Klungel OH, Dowling NF, Dominiczak AF, Kumari M, Nicolaides AN, Weikert C, Boeing H, Ebrahim S, Gaunt TR, Price JF, Lannfelt L, Peasey A, Kubinova R, Pajak A, Malyutina S, Voevoda MI, Tamosiunas A, Maitland-van der Zee AH, Norman PE, Hankey GJ, Bergmann MM, Hofman A, Franco OH, Cooper J, Palmen J, Spiering W, de Jong PA, Kuh D, Hardy R, Uitterlinden AG, Ikram MA, Ford I, Hyppönen E, Almeida OP, Wareham NJ, Khaw KT, Hamsten A, Husemoen LL, Tjønneland A, Tolstrup JS, Rimm E, Beulens JW, Verschuren WM, Onland-Moret NC, Hofker MH, Wannamethee SG, Whincup PH, Morris R, Vicente AM, Watkins H, Farrall M, Jukema JW, Meschia J, Cupples LA, Sharp SJ, Fornage M, Kooperberg C, LaCroix AZ, Dai JY, Lanktree MB, Siscovick DS, Jorgenson E, Spring B, Coresh J, Li YR, Buxbaum SG, Schreiner PJ, Ellison RC, Tsai MY, Patel SR, Redline S, Johnson AD, Hoogeveen RC, Hakonarson H, Rotter JI, Boerwinkle E, de Bakker PI, Kivimaki M, Asselbergs FW, Sattar N, Lawlor DA, Whittaker J, Davey Smith G, Mukamal K, Psaty BM, Wilson JG, Lange LA, Hamidovic A, Hingorani AD, Nordestgaard BG, Bobak M, Leon DA, Langenberg C, Palmer TM, Reiner AP, Keating BJ, Dudbridge F, Casas JP; InterAct Consortium. Association between alcohol and cardiovascular disease: Mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data. BMJ. 2014;349:g4164.
91. Patra J, Taylor B, Irving H, Roerecke M, Baliunas D, Mohapatra S, Rehm J. Alcohol consumption and the risk of morbidity and mortality for different stroke types-a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Public Health. 2010;10:258. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-258.
92. Samokhvalov AV, Irving HM, Rehm J. Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2010;17:706-712. doi: 10.1097/HJR.0b013e32833a1947.
93. Roerecke M, Rehm J. Irregular heavy drinking occasions and risk of ischemic heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol. 2010;171:633-644. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwp451.
94. World Health Organization. Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health 2014. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2014.
95. Mozaffarian D, Appel LJ, Van Horn L. Components of a cardioprotective diet: new insights. Circulation. 2011;123:2870-2891. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.968735.
96. He FJ, Nowson CA, Lucas M, MacGregor GA. Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is related to a reduced risk of coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of cohort studies. J Hum Hypertens. 2007;21:717-728. doi: 10.1038/sj.jhh.1002212.
97. He FJ, Nowson CA, MacGregor GA. Fruit and vegetable consumption and stroke: meta-analysis of cohort studies. Lancet. 2006;367:320-326. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68069-0.
98. Afshin A, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Mozaffarian D. Consumption of nuts and legumes and risk of incident ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Clin Nutr. 2014;100:278-288. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.113.076901.
99. Mellen PB, Walsh TF, Herrington DM. Whole grain intake and cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis. 2008;18:283-290. doi: 10.1016/j.numecd.2006.12.008.
100. Mozaffarian D, Rimm EB. Fish intake, contaminants, and human health: evaluating the risks and the benefits. JAMA. 2006;296:1885-1899. doi: 10.1001/jama.296.15.1885.
101. Micha R, Wallace SK, Mozaffarian D. Red and processed meat consumption and risk of incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Circulation. 2010;121:2271-2283. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.924977.
102. de Souza RJ, Mente A, Maroleanu A, Cozma AI, Ha V, Kishibe T, Uleryk E, Budylowski P, Schünemann H, Beyene J, Anand SS. Intake of saturated and trans unsaturated fatty acids and risk of all cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes: systematic review and metaanalysis of observational studies. BMJ. 2015;351:h3978.
103. Strazzullo P, D'Elia L, Kandala NB, Cappuccio FP. Salt intake, stroke, and cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis of prospective studies. BMJ. 2009;339:b4567.
104. Ioannidis JP. Implausible results in human nutrition research. BMJ. 2013;347:f6698.
105. de Lorgeril M, Salen P, Martin JL, Monjaud I, Delaye J, Mamelle N. Mediterranean diet, traditional risk factors, and the rate of cardiovascular complications after myocardial infarction: final report of the Lyon Diet Heart Study. Circulation. 1999;99:779-785.
106. Estruch R, Ros E, Salas-Salvadó J, Covas MI, Corella D, Arós F, Gómez-Gracia E, Ruiz-Gutiérrez V, Fiol M, Lapetra J, Lamuela-Raventos RM, Serra-Majem L, Pintó X, Basora J, Muñoz MA, Sorlí JV, Martínez JA, Martínez-González MA; PREDIMED Study Investigators. Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:1279-1290. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1200303.
107. Mozaffarian D, Clarke R. Quantitative effects on cardiovascular risk factors and coronary heart disease risk of replacing partially hydrogenated vegetable oils with other fats and oils. Eur J Clin Nutr. 2009;63(suppl 2):S22-S33. doi: 10.1038/sj.ejcn.1602976.
108. Micha R, Mozaffarian D. Saturated fat and cardiometabolic risk factors, coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes: a fresh look at the evidence. Lipids. 2010;45:893-905. doi: 10.1007/s11745-010-3393-4.
109. Rizos EC, Ntzani EE, Bika E, Kostapanos MS, Elisaf MS. Association between omega-3 fatty acid supplementation and risk of major cardiovascular disease events: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA. 2012;308:1024-1033. doi: 10.1001/2012.jama.11374.
110. He FJ, Li J, Macgregor GA. Effect of longer term modest salt reduction on blood pressure: Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials. BMJ. 2013;346:f1325.
111. Sacks FM, Svetkey LP, Vollmer WM, Appel LJ, Bray GA, Harsha D, Obarzanek E, Conlin PR, Miller ER 3rd, Simons-Morton DG, Karanja N, Lin PH; DASH-Sodium Collaborative Research Group. Effects on blood pressure of reduced dietary sodium and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet. DASH-Sodium Collaborative Research Group. N Engl J Med. 2001;344:3-10. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200101043440101.
112. Cobb LK, Anderson CA, Elliott P, Hu FB, Liu K, Neaton JD, Whelton PK, Woodward M, Appel LJ; American Heart Association Council on Lifestyle and Metabolic Health. Methodological issues in cohort studies that relate sodium intake to cardiovascular disease outcomes: a science advisory from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2014;129:1173-1186. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000000015.
113. O'Donnell M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, McQueen MJ, Wang X, Liu L, Yan H, Lee SF, Mony P, Devanath A, Rosengren A, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Diaz R, Avezum A, Lanas F, Yusoff K, Iqbal R, Ilow R, Mohammadifard N, Gulec S, Yusufali AH, Kruger L, Yusuf R, Chifamba J, Kabali C, Dagenais G, Lear SA, Teo K, Yusuf S; PURE Investigators. Urinary sodium and potassium excretion, mortality, and cardiovascular events. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:612-623. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1311889.
114. Hu FB. Dietary pattern analysis: a new direction in nutritional epidemiology. Curr Opin Lipidol. 2002;13:3-9.
115. Powles J, Fahimi S, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Shi P, Ezzati M, Engell RE, Lim SS, Danaei G, Mozaffarian D, Global Burden of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group (NutriCoDE). Global, regional and national sodium intakes in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis of 24 h urinary sodium excretion and dietary surveys worldwide. BMJ Open. 2013;3:e003733
116. Mozaffarian D, Fahimi S, Singh GM, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Engell RE, Lim S, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Powles J; Global Burden of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group. Global sodium consumption and death from cardiovascular causes. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:624-634. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1304127.
117. Intersalt: an international study of electrolyte excretion and blood pressure. Results for 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion. Intersalt Cooperative Research Group. BMJ. 1988;297:319-328.
118. Brown IJ, Tzoulaki I, Candeias V, Elliott P. Salt intakes around the world: implications for public health. Int J Epidemiol. 2009;38:791-813. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyp139.
119. Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Shi P, Fahimi S, Lim S, Andrews KG, Engell RE, Powles J, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian D, Global Burden of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group NutriCoDE. Global, regional, and national consumption levels of dietary fats and oils in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys. BMJ. 2014;348:g2272
120. Morris JN, Heady JA, Raffle PA, Roberts CG, Parks JW. Coronary heartdisease and physical activity of work. Lancet. 1953;265:1111-1120.
121. Morris JN, Heady JA, Raffle PA, Roberts CG, Parks JW. Coronary heartdisease and physical activity of work. Lancet. 1953;265:1053-1057.
122. Physical Activity Guidelines Advisory Committee. Physical Activity Guidelines Advisory Committee Report, 2008. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services; 2008.
123. Sattelmair J, Pertman J, Ding EL, Kohl HW 3rd, Haskell W, Lee IM. Dose response between physical activity and risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis. Circulation. 2011;124:789-795. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.010710.
124. Löllgen H, Böckenhoff A, Knapp G. Physical activity and all-cause mortality: an updated meta-analysis with different intensity categories. Int J Sports Med. 2009;30:213-224. doi: 10.1055/s-0028-1128150.
125. Fletcher GF, Balady G, Blair SN, Blumenthal J, Caspersen C, Chaitman B, Epstein S, Sivarajan Froelicher ES, Froelicher VF, Pina IL, Pollock ML. Statement on exercise: benefits and recommendations for physical activity programs for all Americans. A statement for health professionals by the Committee on Exercise and Cardiac Rehabilitation of the Council on Clinical Cardiology, American Heart Association. Circulation. 1996;94:857-862.
126. Levine JA, Weisell R, Chevassus S, Martinez CD, Burlingame B, Coward WA. The work burden of women. Science. 2001;294:812. doi: 10.1126/science.1064627.
127. Woodcock J, Franco OH, Orsini N, Roberts I. Non-vigorous physical activity and all-cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Int J Epidemiol. 2011;40:121-138. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq104.
128. Hallal PC, Andersen LB, Bull FC, Guthold R, Haskell W, Ekelund U; Lancet Physical Activity Series Working Group. Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects. Lancet. 2012;380:247-257. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60646-1.
129. Clays E, Lidegaard M, De Bacquer D, Van Herck K, De Backer G, Kittel F, de Smet P, Holtermann A. The combined relationship of occupational and leisure-time physical activity with all-cause mortality among men, accounting for physical fitness. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179:559-566. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt294.
130. Brook RD, Rajagopalan S, Pope CA 3rd, Brook JR, Bhatnagar A, Diez-Roux AV, Holguin F, Hong Y, Luepker RV, Mittleman MA, Peters A, Siscovick D, Smith SC Jr, Whitsel L, Kaufman JD; American Heart Association Council on Epidemiology and Prevention, Council on the Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease, and Council on Nutrition, Physical Activity and Metabolism. Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2010;121:2331-2378. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0b013e3181dbece1.
131. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter. Research Triangle Park, NC: EPA; 2009.
132. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. Health Relevance of Particulate Matter From Various Sources. Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe; 2007.
133. Cohen A, Anderson R, Ostro B, Pandey KD, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Gutschmidt K, Pope A, Romieu I, Samet J, Smith KR. Urban ambient air pollution. In: Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL, eds. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2004:1353-1433.
134. Burnett RT, Pope CA 3rd, Ezzati M, Olives C, Lim SS, Mehta S, Shin HH, Singh G, Hubbell B, Brauer M, Anderson HR, Smith KR, Balmes JR, Bruce NG, Kan H, Laden F, Prüss-Ustün A, Turner MC, Gapstur SM, Diver WR, Cohen A. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure. Environ Health Perspect. 2014;122:397-403. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1307049.
135. van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Brauer M, Boys BL. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter. Environ Health Perspect. 2015;123:135-143. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1408646.
136. Zhou Z, Dionisio KL, Verissimo TG, Kerr AS, Coull B, Arku RE, Koutrakis P, Spengler JD, Hughes AF, Vallarino J, Agyei-Mensah S, Ezzati M. Chemical composition and sources of particle pollution in affluent and poor neighborhoods of Accra, Ghana. Environ Res Lett. 2013;8:044025.
137. Bell ML, Dominici F, Ebisu K, Zeger SL, Samet JM. Spatial and temporal variation in PM(2.5) chemical composition in the United States for health effects studies. Environ Health Perspect. 2007;115:989-995. doi: 10.1289/ehp.9621.
138. Dominici F, Wang Y, Correia AW, Ezzati M, Pope CA 3rd, Dockery DW. Chemical composition of fine particulate matter and life expectancy: in 95 US counties between 2002 and 2007. Epidemiology. 2015;26:556-564. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000297.
139. Baumgartner J, Zhang Y, Schauer JJ, Huang W, Wang Y, Ezzati M. Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014;111:13229-13234. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1317176111.
140. Baumgartner J, Schauer JJ, Ezzati M, Lu L, Cheng C, Patz JA, Bautista LE. Indoor air pollution and blood pressure in adult women living in rural China. Environ Health Perspect. 2011;119:1390-1395. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1003371.
141. Shan M, Yang X, Ezzati M, Chaturvedi N, Coady E, Hughes A, Shi Y, Yang M, Zhang Y, Baumgartner J. A feasibility study of the association of exposure to biomass smoke with vascular function, inflammation, and cellular aging. Environ Res. 2014;135:165-172. doi: 10.1016/j. envres.2014.09.006.
142. Lim SS, Dandona L, Hoisington JA, James SL, Hogan MC, Gakidou E. India's Janani Suraksha Yojana, a conditional cash transfer programme to increase births in health facilities: an impact evaluation. Lancet. 2010;375:2009-2023. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60744-1.
143. Smith KR, Bruce N, Balakrishnan K, Adair-Rohani H, Balmes J, Chafe Z, Dherani M, Hosgood HD, Mehta S, Pope D, Rehfuess E; HAP CRA Risk Expert Group. Millions dead: how do we know and what does it mean? Methods used in the comparative risk assessment of household air pollution. Annu Rev Public Health. 2014;35:185-206. doi: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032013-182356.
144. Navas-Acien A, Schwartz BS, Rothenberg SJ, Hu H, Silbergeld EK, Guallar E. Bone lead levels and blood pressure endpoints: a meta-analysis. Epidemiology. 2008;19:496-504. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816a2400.
145. Navas-Acien A, Guallar E, Silbergeld EK, Rothenberg SJ. Lead exposure and cardiovascular disease-a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect. 2007;115:472-482. doi: 10.1289/ehp.9785.
146. Prüss-Üstün A, Fewtrell L, Landrigan P, Ayuso-Mateos J. Lead exposure. In: Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL, eds. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2004.
147. van Kempen E, Babisch W. The quantitative relationship between road traffic noise and hypertension: a meta-analysis. J Hypertens. 2012;30:1075-1086. doi: 10.1097/HJH.0b013e328352ac54.
148. Babisch W. Road traffic noise and cardiovascular risk. Noise Health. 2008;10:27-33.
149. Hansell AL, Blangiardo M, Fortunato L, Floud S, de Hoogh K, Fecht D, Ghosh RE, Laszlo HE, Pearson C, Beale L, Beevers S, Gulliver J, Best N, Richardson S, Elliott P. Aircraft noise and cardiovascular disease near Heathrow airport in London: small area study. BMJ. 2013;347:f5432.
150. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. Burden of Disease From Environmental Noise: Quantification of Healthy Life Years Lost in Europe. Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe; 2011.
151. Basu R. High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ Health. 2009;8:40. doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-8-40.
152. Ye X, Wolff R, Yu W, Vaneckova P, Pan X, Tong S. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ Health Perspect. 2012;120:19-28. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1003198.
153. Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklöv J, Forsberg B, Leone M, De Sario M, Bell ML, Guo YL, Wu CF, Kan H, Yi SM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PH, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong B. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet. 2015;386:369-375. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0.
154. Bennett JE, Blangiardo M, Fecht D, Elliott P, Ezzati M. Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales. Nature Clim Change. 2014;4:269-273
155. Interleukin-6 Receptor Mendelian Randomisation Analysis Consortium. The interleukin-6 receptor as a target for prevention of coronary heart disease: a mendelian randomisation analysis. Lancet. 2012;379:1214-1224
156. Kamstrup PR, Tybjaerg-Hansen A, Steffensen R, Nordestgaard BG. Genetically elevated lipoprotein(a) and increased risk of myocardial infarction. JAMA. 2009;301:2331-2339. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.801.
157. A genome-wide association study in Europeans and south Asians identifies five new loci for coronary artery disease. Nat Genet. 2011;43:339-344
158. CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium, Deloukas P, Kanoni S, Willenborg C, Farrall M, Assimes TL, Thompson JR, Ingelsson E, Saleheen D, Erdmann J, Goldstein BA, Stirrups K, Konig IR, Cazier JB, Johansson A, Hall AS, Lee JY, Willer CJ, Chambers JC, Esko T, Folkersen L, Goel A, Grundberg E, Havulinna AS, Ho WK, Hopewell JC, Eriksson N, Kleber ME, Kristiansson K, Lundmark P, Lyytikainen LP, Rafelt S, Shungin D, Strawbridge RJ, Thorleifsson G, Tikkanen E, Van Zuydam N, Voight BF, Waite LL, Zhang W, Ziegler A, Absher D, Altshuler D, Balmforth AJ, Barroso I, Braund PS, Burgdorf C, Claudi-Boehm S, Cox D, Dimitriou M, Do R, Consortium D, Consortium C, Doney AS, El Mokhtari N, Eriksson P, Fischer K, Fontanillas P, Franco-Cereceda A, Gigante B, Groop L, Gustafsson S, Hager J, Hallmans G, Han BG, Hunt SE, Kang HM, Illig T, Kessler T, Knowles JW, Kolovou G, Kuusisto J, Langenberg C, Langford C, Leander K, Lokki ML, Lundmark A, McCarthy MI, Meisinger C, Melander O, Mihailov E, Maouche S, Morris AD, Muller-Nurasyid M, Mu TC, Nikus K, Peden JF, Rayner NW, Rasheed A, Rosinger S, Rubin D, Rumpf MP, Schafer A, Sivananthan M, Song C, Stewart AF, Tan ST, Thorgeirsson G, van der Schoot CE, Wagner PJ, Wellcome Trust Case Control C, Wells GA, Wild PS, Yang TP, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Basart H, Boehnke M, Boerwinkle E, Brambilla P, Cambien F, Cupples AL, de Faire U, Dehghan A, Diemert P, Epstein SE, Evans A, Ferrario MM, Ferrieres J, Gauguier D, Go AS, Goodall AH, Gudnason V, Hazen SL, Holm H, Iribarren C, Jang Y, Kahonen M, Kee F, Kim HS, Klopp N, Koenig W, Kratzer W, Kuulasmaa K, Laakso M, Laaksonen R, Lee JY, Lind L, Ouwehand WH, Parish S, Park JE, Pedersen NL, Peters A, Quertermous T, Rader DJ, Salomaa V, Schadt E, Shah SH, Sinisalo J, Stark K, Stefansson K, Tregouet DA, Virtamo J, Wallentin L, Wareham N, Zimmermann ME, Nieminen MS, Hengstenberg C, Sandhu MS, Pastinen T, Syvanen AC, Hovingh GK, Dedoussis G, Franks PW, Lehtimaki T, Metspalu A, Zalloua PA, Siegbahn A, Schreiber S, Ripatti S, Blankenberg SS, Perola M, Clarke R, Boehm BO, O'Donnell C, Reilly MP, Marz W, Collins R, Kathiresan S, Hamsten A, Kooner JS, Thorsteinsdottir U, Danesh J, Palmer CN, Roberts R, Watkins H, Schunkert H, Samani NJ. Large-scale association analysis identifies new risk loci for coronary artery disease. Nat Genet. 2013;45:25-33.
159. Paynter NP, Chasman DI, Paré G, Buring JE, Cook NR, Miletich JP, Ridker PM. Association between a literature-based genetic risk score and cardiovascular events in women. JAMA. 2010;303:631-637. doi: 10.1001/jama.2010.119.
160. Di Cesare M, Bennett JE, Best N, Stevens GA, Danaei G, Ezzati M. The contributions of risk factor trends to cardiometabolic mortality decline in 26 industrialized countries. Int J Epidemiol. 2013;42:838-848. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyt063.
161. Yusuf S, Islam S, Chow CK, Rangarajan S, Dagenais G, Diaz R, Gupta R, Kelishadi R, Iqbal R, Avezum A, Kruger A, Kutty R, Lanas F, Lisheng L, Wei L, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Oguz A, Rahman O, Swidan H, Yusoff K, Zatonski W, Rosengren A, Teo KK; Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study Investigators. Use of secondary prevention drugs for cardiovascular disease in the community in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (the PURE Study): a prospective epidemiological survey. Lancet. 2011;378:1231-1243. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61215-4.
162. Tunstall-Pedoe H, Vanuzzo D, Hobbs M, Mähönen M, Cepaitis Z, Kuulasmaa K, Keil U. Estimation of contribution of changes in coronary care to improving survival, event rates, and coronary heart disease mortality across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet. 2000;355:688-700.
163. Holmes E, Loo RL, Stamler J, Bictash M, Yap IK, Chan Q, Ebbels T, De Iorio M, Brown IJ, Veselkov KA, Daviglus ML, Kesteloot H, Ueshima H, Zhao L, Nicholson JK, Elliott P. Human metabolic phenotype diversity and its association with diet and blood pressure. Nature. 2008;453:396-400. doi: 10.1038/nature06882.
164. Tang WH, Wang Z, Levison BS, Koeth RA, Britt EB, Fu X, Wu Y, Hazen SL. Intestinal microbial metabolism of phosphatidylcholine and cardiovascular risk. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:1575-1584. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1109400.
165. Elliott P, Posma JM, Chan Q, Garcia-Perez I, Wijeyesekera A, Bictash M, Ebbels TM, Ueshima H, Zhao L, van Horn L, Daviglus M, Stamler J, Holmes E, Nicholson JK. Urinary metabolic signatures of human adiposity. Sci Transl Med. 2015;7:285ra62. doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aaa5680.
166. Tzoulaki I, Ebbels TM, Valdes A, Elliott P, Ioannidis JP. Design and analysis of metabolomics studies in epidemiologic research: a primer on-omic technologies. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;180:129-139. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu143.
167. Dick KJ, Nelson CP, Tsaprouni L, Sandling JK, Aïssi D, Wahl S, Meduri E, Morange PE, Gagnon F, Grallert H, Waldenberger M, Peters A, Erdmann J, Hengstenberg C, Cambien F, Goodall AH, Ouwehand WH, Schunkert H, Thompson JR, Spector TD, Gieger C, Trégouët DA, Deloukas P, Samani NJ. DNA methylation and body-mass index: a genome-wide analysis. Lancet. 2014;383:1990-1998. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62674-4.
168. Chambers JC, Loh M, Lehne B, Drong A, Kriebel J, Motta V, Wahl S, Elliott HR, Rota F, Scott WR, Zhang W, Tan ST, Campanella G, Chadeau-Hyam M, Yengo L, Richmond RC, Adamowicz-Brice M, Afzal U, Bozaoglu K, Mok ZY, Ng HK, Pattou F, Prokisch H, Rozario MA, Tarantini L, Abbott J, Ala-Korpela M, Albetti B, Ammerpohl O, Bertazzi PA, Blancher C, Caiazzo R, Danesh J, Gaunt TR, de Lusignan S, Gieger C, Illig T, Jha S, Jones S, Jowett J, Kangas AJ, Kasturiratne A, Kato N, Kotea N, Kowlessur S, Pitkäniemi J, Punjabi P, Saleheen D, Schafmayer C, Soininen P, Tai ES, Thorand B, Tuomilehto J, Wickremasinghe AR, Kyrtopoulos SA, Aitman TJ, Herder C, Hampe J, Cauchi S, Relton CL, Froguel P, Soong R, Vineis P, Jarvelin MR, Scott J, Grallert H, Bollati V, Elliott P, McCarthy MI, Kooner JS. Epigenome-wide association of DNA methylation markers in peripheral blood from Indian Asians and Europeans with incident type 2 diabetes: a nested case-control study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2015;3:526-534. doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00127-8.
169. Tzoulaki I, Liberopoulos G, Ioannidis JP. Assessment of claims of improved prediction beyond the Framingham risk score. JAMA. 2009;302:2345-2352. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1757.
170. Tada H, Melander O, Louie JZ, Catanese JJ, Rowland CM, Devlin JJ, Kathiresan S, Shiffman D. Risk prediction by genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease is independent of self-reported family history. Eur Heart J. 2016;37:561-567. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehv462.
171. Wang Z, Klipfell E, Bennett BJ, Koeth R, Levison BS, Dugar B, Feldstein AE, Britt EB, Fu X, Chung YM, Wu Y, Schauer P, Smith JD, Allayee H, Tang WH, DiDonato JA, Lusis AJ, Hazen SL. Gut flora metabolism of phosphatidylcholine promotes cardiovascular disease. Nature. 2011;472:57-63. doi: 10.1038/nature09922.
172. Rose G. Incubation period of coronary heart disease. BMJ (Clin Res Ed). 1982;284:1600-1601.
173. Kontis V, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Stevens GA, Rehm J, Shield KD, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Jabbour S, Garg RM, Hennis A, Fouad HM, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M. Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2015;3:e746-e757. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5.
174. Finucane MM, Paciorek CJ, Danaei G, Ezzati M. Bayesian estimation of population-level trends in measures of health status. Statistical Science. 2014:18-25
175. Brauer M, Amann M, Burnett RT, Cohen A, Dentener F, Ezzati M, Henderson SB, Krzyzanowski M, Martin RV, Van Dingenen R, van Donkelaar A, Thurston GD. Exposure assessment for estimation of the global burden of disease attributable to outdoor air pollution. Environ Sci Technol. 2012;46:652-660. doi: 10.1021/es2025752.
176. Ezzati M, Riboli E. Can noncommunicable diseases be prevented? Lessons from studies of populations and individuals. Science. 2012;337:1482-1487. doi: 10.1126/science.1227001.
177. Beaglehole R, Epping-Jordan J, Patel V, Chopra M, Ebrahim S, Kidd M, Haines A. Improving the prevention and management of chronic disease in low-income and middle-income countries: a priority for primary health care. Lancet. 2008;372:940-949. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61404-X.
178. Farzadfar F, Murray CJ, Gakidou E, Bossert T, Namdaritabar H, Alikhani S, Moradi G, Delavari A, Jamshidi H, Ezzati M. Effectiveness of diabetes and hypertension management by rural primary healthcare workers (Behvarz workers) in Iran: a nationally representative observational study. Lancet. 2012;379:47-54. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61349-4.
179. DePue JD, Dunsiger S, Seiden AD, Blume J, Rosen RK, Goldstein MG, Nu'usolia O, Tuitele J, McGarvey ST. Nurse-community health worker team improves diabetes care in American Samoa: results of a randomized controlled trial. Diabetes Care. 2013;36:1947-1953. doi: 10.2337/dc12-1969.