The global cardiovascular risk transition: Associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and western diet in 1980 and 2008

Circulation

Volumn 127, Issue 14, 2013, Pages 1493-1502

  Danaei, Goodarz ^a   Singh, Gitanjali M ^a   Paciorek, Christopher J ^b   Lin, John K ^a   Cowan, Melanie J ^c   Finucane, Mariel M ^d   Farzadfar, Farshad ^e   Stevens, Gretchen A ^c   Riley, Leanne M ^c   Lu, Yuan ^a   Rao, Mayuree ^a   Ezzati, Majid ^f  

^a HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^e TEHRAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES   (Iran)

^f IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Blood pressure; Cholesterol; Diabetes mellitus; Epidemiology; Obesity

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BODY MASS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; DIET; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GLUCOSE BLOOD LEVEL; HUMAN; INCOME; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEX RATIO; SYSTEMATIC REVIEW; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE; URBANIZATION;

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; BLOOD PRESSURE; BODY MASS INDEX; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; CHOLESTEROL; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; DIABETES MELLITUS; FEMALE; FOOD HABITS; HUMANS; HYPERCHOLESTEROLEMIA; HYPERTENSION; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; RISK FACTORS; SEX DISTRIBUTION; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS; URBANIZATION; WESTERN WORLD; WORLD HEALTH;

EID: 84876132006     PISSN: 00097322     EISSN: 15244539     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.001470     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. DiCesare M, Khang YH, Asaria P, Blakely T, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Guerrero R, Ikeda N, Kyobutungi C, Msyamboza KP, Oum S, Lynch JW, Marmot MG, Ezzati M. Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses. Lancet. 2013;381:585-597.
2. Ezzati M, Vander Hoorn S, Lawes CM, Leach R, James WP, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJ. Rethinking the "diseases of affuence" paradigm: global patterns of nutritional risks in relation to economic development. PLoS Med. 2005;2:e133.
3. Kim D, Kawachi I, Hoorn SV, Ezzati M. Is inequality at the heart of it? Cross-country associations of income inequality with cardiovascular diseases and risk factors. Soc Sci Med. 2008;66:1719-1732.
4. Pelletier DL, Rahn M. Trends in body mass index in developing countries. Food Nutr Bull. 1998;19:223-239. (Pubitemid 28497346)
5. Popkin BM. The shift in stages of the nutrition transition in the developing world differs from past experiences! Public Health Nutr. 2002;5(1A):205-214.
6. Reddy KS. Cardiovascular disease in non-Western countries. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:2438-2440. (Pubitemid 38736540)
7. Anand SS, Yusuf S. Stemming the global tsunami of cardiovascular disease. Lancet. 2011;377:529-532.
8. Beaglehole R, Yach D. Globalisation and the prevention and control of non-communicable disease: the neglected chronic diseases of adults. Lancet. 2003;362:903-908. (Pubitemid 37130102)
9. Pang T, Guindon GE. Globalization and risks to health. EMBO Rep. 2004;5:S11-S16.
10. Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lin JK, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Lim SS, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377: 568-577.
11. Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lu Y, Singh GM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Farzadfar F, Khang YH, Stevens GA, Rao M, Ali MK, Riley LM, Robinson CA, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. Lancet. 2011;378:31-40.
12. Farzadfar F, Finucane MM, Danaei G, Pelizzari PM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Lin JK, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3.0 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377:578-586.
13. Finucane MM, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Danaei G, Lin JK, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Gutierrez HR, Lu Y, Bahalim AN, Farzadfar F, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9.1 million participants. Lancet. 2011;377:557-567.
14. WHO. Global Status Report on Non-communicable Diseases 2010. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2011.
15. James SL, Gubbins P, Murray CJ, Gakidou E. Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015. Popul Health Metr. 2012;10:12.
16. Hu FB. Dietary pattern analysis: a new direction in nutritional epidemiology. Curr Opin Lipidol. 2002;13:3-9. (Pubitemid 34174623)
17. Ikeda N, Gakidou E, Hasegawa T, Murray CJ. Understanding the decline of mean systolic blood pressure in Japan: an analysis of pooled data from the National Nutrition Survey, 1986-2002. Bull World Health Organ. 2008;86:978-988.
18. He FJ, MacGregor GA. A comprehensive review on salt and health and current experience of worldwide salt reduction programmes. J Hum Hypertens. 2009;23:363-384.
19. Gregg EW, Cheng YJ, Cadwell BL, Imperatore G, Williams DE, Flegal KM, Narayan KM, Williamson DF. Secular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in US adults. JAMA. 2005;293:1868-1874. (Pubitemid 40548183)
20. Danon-Hersch N, Chiolero A, Shamlaye C, Paccaud F, Bovet P. Decreasing association between body mass index and blood pressure over time. Epidemiology. 2007;18:493-500. (Pubitemid 46955317)
21. Pampel FC, Denney JT, Krueger PM. Obesity, SES, and economic development: a test of the reversal hypothesis. Soc Sci Med. 2012;74: 1073-1081.
22. Pietinen P, Vartiainen E, Seppänen R, Aro A, Puska P. Changes in diet in Finland from 1972 to 1992: impact on coronary heart disease risk. Prev Med. 1996;25:243-250. (Pubitemid 26177566)
23. Levi F, Lucchini F, Negri E, La Vecchia C. Trends in mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world. Heart. 2002;88:119-124. (Pubitemid 34787755)
24. Ezzati M, Riboli E. Can noncommunicable diseases be prevented? Lessons from studies of populations and individuals. Science. 2012;337:1482-1487.
25. Nabel EG, Braunwald E. A tale of coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med. 2012;366:54-63.
26. Ford ES, Capewell S. Proportion of the decline in cardiovascular mortality disease due to prevention versus treatment: public health versus clinical care. Annu Rev Public Health. 2011;32:5-22.
27. Stringhini S, Sinon F, Didon J, Gedeon J, Paccaud F, Bovet P. Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the african region. Stroke. 2012;43:2283-2288.
28. Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, Jamison DT, Murray CJ. Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet. 2006;367:1747-1757. (Pubitemid 43767064)
29. Bovet P, Romain S, Shamlaye C, Mendis S, Darioli R, Riesen W, Tappy L, Paccaud F. Divergent ffteen-year trends in traditional and cardiometabolic risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in the Seychelles. Cardiovasc Diabetol. 2009;8:34.
30. Asaria P, Chisholm D, Mathers C, Ezzati M, Beaglehole R. Chronic disease prevention: health effects and fnancial costs of strategies to reduce salt intake and control tobacco use. Lancet. 2007;370:2044-2053. (Pubitemid 50007973)
31. Roth GA, Fihn SD, Mokdad AH, Aekplakorn W, Hasegawa T, Lim SS. High total serum cholesterol, medication coverage and therapeutic control: an analysis of national health examination survey data from eight countries. Bull World Health Organ. 2011;89:92-101.
32. Abegunde DO, Mathers CD, Adam T, Ortegon M, Strong K. The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet. 2007;370:1929-1938. (Pubitemid 350192633)
33. Barceló A, Aedo C, Rajpathak S, Robles S. The cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean. Bull World Health Organ. 2003;81: 19-27. (Pubitemid 36168649)
34. Leeder S, Raymond S, Greenberg H, Liu H, Esson K. A Race Against Time: The Challenge of Cardiovascular Disease in Developing Economies. New York, NY: Earth Institute of Columbia University; 2004.
35. Nugent RA, Fathima SF, Feigl AB, Chyung D. The burden of chronic kidney disease on developing nations: a 21st century challenge in global health. Nephron Clin Pract. 2011;118:c269-c277.
36. Cohen JT, Neumann PJ, Weinstein MC. Does preventive care save money? Health economics and the presidential candidates. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:661-663. (Pubitemid 351240744)
37. Vos T, Carter R, Barendregt J, Mihalopoulos C, Veerman JL, Magnus A, Cobiac L, Bertram MY, Wallace AL, ACE-Prevention Team (2010). Assessing Cost-Effectiveness in Prevention (ACE-Prevention): Final Report. Melbourne, Australia: University of Queensland, Brisbane and Deakin University; 2010.
38. Farzadfar F, Murray CJ, Gakidou E, Bossert T, Namdaritabar H, Alikhani S, Moradi G, Delavari A, Jamshidi H, Ezzati M. Effectiveness of diabetes and hypertension management by rural primary health-care workers (Behvarz workers) in Iran: a nationally representative observational study. Lancet. 2012;379:47-54.