A backcasting approach for matching regional ecosystem services supply and demand

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 75, Issue , 2016, Pages 439-458

  Brunner, Sibyl Hanna ^a   Huber, Robert ^b   Grêt Regamey, Adrienne ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Backcasting; Ecosystem services; Normative vision; Policy strategies; Social ecological modeling; Transition pathways

Indexed keywords

ECOLOGY; ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; LAND USE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BACKCASTING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; POLICY STRATEGIES; TRANSITION PATHWAY;

ECOSYSTEMS;

BOUNDARY CONDITION; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING; LAND USE PLANNING; PLANNING METHOD; POLICY MAKING; POLICY STRATEGY; REGIONAL POLICY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84964526833     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.018     Document Type: Article

References (138)

1. Abdullah N.S. Suitability model based on GIS and MCDA for spatial distribution of settlements in different geographic environments. Eur. Sci. J. 2014, 2:236-249.
2. Abildtrup J., Audsley E., Fekete-Farkas M., Giupponi C., Gylling M., Rosato P., Rounsevell M. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach. Environ. Sci. Policy 2006, 9:101-115.
3. Adamowicz W., Louviere J., Williams M. Combining revealed and stated preference methods for valuing environmental amenities. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 1994, 26:271-292.
4. Ash N., Blanco H., Brown C., Garcia K., Henrichs T., Lucas N., Raudsepp-Hearne C., Simpson D., Scholes R., Tomich T., Vira B., Zurek M. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: a Manual for Assessment Practitioners 2010, Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
5. Bagstad K., Reed J., Semmens D., Sherrouse B., Troy A. Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains. Reg. Environ. Change 2015, 1-14.
6. Bagstad K.J., Villa F., Batker D., Harrison-Cox J., Voigt B., Johnson G.W. From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments. Ecol. Soc. 2014, 19.
7. Bateman I., Mace G., Fezzi C., Atkinson G., Turner K. Economic analysis for ecosystem service assessments. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2011, 48:177-218.
8. Baveye P.C., Baveye J., Gowdy J. Monetary valuation of ecosystem services: it matters to get the timeline right. Ecol. Econ. 2013, 95:231-235.
9. Bennett E.M., Peterson G.D., Gordon L.J. Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Ecol. Lett. 2009, 12:1394-1404.
10. Berkel D., Verburg P. Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape. Landsc. Ecol. 2012, 27:641-658.
11. Bieling C. Perceiving and responding to gradual landscape change at the community level: insights from a case study on agricultural abandonment in the Black Forest, Germany. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
12. Boyd J., Banzhaf S. What are ecosystem services? The need for standardized environmental accounting units. Ecol Econ 2007, 63:616-626.
13. Brändle J., Peter S., Langendijk G., Brunner S.H., Huber R. Sensitivity analysis of a land-use change model with and without agents to assess land abandonment and long-term re-forestation in a Swiss mountain region. Land 2015, 4:475-512.
14. Briner S., Elkin C., Huber R. Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: a spatial dynamic modeling approach. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2012, 149. 14-14.
15. Briner S., Huber R., Bebi P., Elkin C., Schmatz D.R., Grêt-Regamey A. Trade-offs between ecosystem services in a mountain region. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
16. Brown D.G., Verburg P.H., Pontius R.G., Lange M.D. Opportunities to improve impact, integration, and evaluation of land change models. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 5:452-457.
17. Bryan B.A., Raymond C.M., Crossman N.D., Macdonald D.H. Targeting the management of ecosystem services based on social values: where, what, and how?. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2010, 97:111-122.
18. Bryson J., Piper J., Rounsevell M. Envisioning futures for climate change policy development: scenarios use in European environmental policy institutions. Environ. Policy Gov. 2010, 20:283-294.
19. Burkhard B., Kroll F., Nedkov S., Müller F. Mapping ecosystem service supply, demand and budgets. Ecol. Indic. 2012, 21:17-29.
20. Carlsson-Kanyama A., Dreborg K.H., Moll H.C., Padovan D. Participative backcasting: a tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 2008, 40:34-46.
21. Castro A.J., Verburg P.H., Martín-López B., Garcia-Llorente M., Cabello J., Vaughn C.C., López E. Ecosystem service trade-offs from supply to social demand: a landscape-scale spatial analysis. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2014, 132:102-110.
22. Cavender-Bares J., Polasky S., King E., Balvanera P. A sustainability framework for assessing trade-offs in ecosystem services. Ecol. Soc. 2015, 20.
23. Champ P.A., Boyle K.J., Brown T.C. A Primer on Nonmarket Valuation 2012, Springer Science & Business Media.
24. Daniel T.C., Muhar A., Arnberger A., Aznar O., Boyd J.W., Chan K.M.A., Costanza R., Elmqvist T., Flint C.G., Gobster P.H., Grêt-Regamey A., Lave R., Muhar S., Penker M., Ribe R.G., Schauppenlehner T., Sikor T., Soloviy I., Spierenburg M., Taczanowska K., Tam J., von der Dunk A. Contributions of cultural services to the ecosystem services agenda. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2012, 109:8812-8819.
25. de Groot R.S., Alkemade R., Braat L., Hein L., Willemen L. Challenges in integrating the concept of ecosystem services and values in landscape planning, management and decision making. Ecol. Complex. 2010, 7:260-272.
26. Dreborg K.H. Essence of backcasting. Futures 1996, 28:813-828.
27. DZV Verordnung über die Direktzahlungen an die Landwirtschaft 2013, Bern, Switzerland. S. Bundesrat (Ed.).
28. Farber S.C., Costanza R., Wilson M.A. Economic and ecological concepts for valuing ecosystem services. Ecol. Econ. 2002, 41:375-392.
29. Farley J. Ecosystem services: the economics debate. Ecosyst. Serv. 2012, 1:40-49.
30. Filatova T., Verburg P.H., Parker D.C., Stannard C.A. Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: challenges and prospects. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 45:1-7.
31. Fisher B., Turner K., Zylstra M., Brouwer R., Groot R.d., Farber S., Ferraro P., Green R., Hadley D., Harlow J., Jefferiss P., Kirkby C., Morling P., Mowatt S., Naidoo R., Paavola J., Strassburg B., Yu D., Balmford A. Ecosystem services and economic theory: integration for policy-relevant research. Ecol. Appl. 2008, 18:2050-2067.
32. FOAG, F.O.f.A. Swiss agricultural census data 2000-2012. Agriculture 2008, Bern, Switzerland. F.O.f. (Ed.).
33. Foley J.A., DeFries R., Asner G.P., Barford C., Bonan G., Carpenter S.R., Chapin F.S., Coe M.T., Daily G.C., Gibbs H.K., Helkowski J.H., Holloway T., Howard E.A., Kucharik C.J., Monfreda C., Patz J.A., Prentice I.C., Ramankutty N., Snyder P.K. Global consequences of land use. Science 2005, 309:570-574.
34. Freeman A.M., Herriges J.A., Kling C.L. The Measurement of Environmental and Resource Values: Theory and Methods 2014, Routledge.
35. Garcia A.M., Sante I., Miranda D., Crecente R. Analysis of factors influencing urban growth patterns on small towns. 2nd WSEAS International Conference on Urban Planning and Transportation 2009.
36. Geijzendorffer I.R., Martín-López B., Roche P.K. Improving the identification of mismatches in ecosystem services assessments. Ecol. Indic. 2015, 52:320-331.
37. Giupponi C., Borsuk M.E., de Vries B.J.M., Hasselmann K. Innovative approaches to integrated global change modelling. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 44:1-9.
38. Goldstein J.H., Caldarone G., Duarte T.K., Ennaanay D., Hannahs N., Mendoza G., Polasky S., Wolny S., Daily G.C. Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2012, 109:7565-7570.
39. Gomi K., Ochi Y., Matsuoka Y. A systematic quantitative backcasting on low-carbon society policy in case of Kyoto city. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:852-871.
40. Gordon A. Implementing backcasting for conservation: determining multiple policy pathways for retaining future targets of endangered woodlands in Sydney, Australia. Biol. Conserv. 2015, 181:182-189.
41. Grêt-Regamey A., Bishop I.D., Bebi P. Predicting the scenic beauty value of mapped landscape changes in a mountainous region through the use of GIS. Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des. 2007, 34:50-67.
42. Grêt-Regamey A., Brunner S.H. Adaptation to climate change through backcasting - a methodological framework for spatial planners. disP 2011, 1-8.
43. Grêt-Regamey A., Brunner S.H., Altwegg J., Bebi P. Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management. J. Environ. Manag. 2013, 127(Suppl. l.):S145-S154.
44. Grêt-Regamey A., Brunner S.H., Kienast F. Mountain ecosystem services: who cares?. Mt. Res. Dev. 2012, 32:S23-S34.
45. Grêt-Regamey A., Celio E., Klein T.M., Wissen Hayek U. Understanding ecosystem services trade-offs with interactive procedural modeling for sustainable urban planning. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2013, 109:107-116.
46. Grêt-Regamey A., Rabe S.-E., Crespo R., Lautenbach S., Ryffel A., Schlup B. On the importance of non-linear relationships between landscape patterns and the sustainable provision of ecosystem services. Landsc. Ecol. 2014, 29:201-212.
47. Haines-Young R., Potschin M., Kienast F. Indicators of ecosystem service potential at European scales: mapping marginal changes and trade-offs. Ecol. Indic. 2012, 21:39-53.
48. Hamilton S.H., ElSawah S., Guillaume J.H., Jakeman A.J., Pierce S.A. Integrated assessment and modelling: overview and synthesis of salient dimensions. Environ. Model. Softw. 2015, 64:215-229.
49. Hanley N., Wright R., Adamowicz V. Using choice experiments to value the environment. Environ. Resour. Econ. 1998, 11:413-428.
50. Haslauer E. Application of a spatially explicit backcasting model: a case study of sustainable development in Salzburg, Austria. Appl. Geogr. 2015, 58:128-140.
51. Haslauer E., Biberacher M., Blaschke T. GIS-based backcasting: an innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. Futures 2012, 44:292-302.
52. Hasund K.P., Kataria M., Lagerkvist C.J. Valuing public goods of the agricultural landscape: a choice experiment using reference points to capture observable heterogeneity. J. Environ. Plan. Manag. 2010, 54:31-53.
53. Hauck J., Winkler K.J., Priess J.A. Reviewing drivers of ecosystem change as input for environmental and ecosystem services modelling. Sustain. Water Qual. Ecol. 2015, 5:9-30.
54. Hensher D.A., Rose J.M., Greene W.H. Applied Choice Analysis: a Primer 2005, Cambridge University Press.
55. Hewitt R., van Delden H., Escobar F. Participatory land use modelling, pathways to an integrated approach. Environ. Model. Softw. 2014, 52:149-165.
56. Hirschi C., Widmer A., Briner S., Huber R. Combining policy network and model-based scenario analyses: an assessment of future ecosystem goods and services in Swiss mountain regions. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
57. Höjer M., Gullberg A., Pettersson R. Backcasting images of the future city-time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:819-834.
58. Holmberg J., Robert K.H. Backcasting from non-overlapping principles - a framework for strategic planning. Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol. 2000, 7. 18.
59. Huber R., Briner S., Bugmann H., Elkin C., Hirschi C., Seidl R., Snell R., Rigling A. Inter- and transdisciplinary perspective on the integration of ecological processes into ecosystem services analysis in a mountain region. Ecol. Process. 2014, 3. 9.
60. Huber R., Flury C., Finger R. Factors affecting farm growth intentions of family farms in mountain regions: empirical evidence for Central Switzerland. Land Use Policy 2015, 47:188-197.
61. Huber R., Hunziker M., Lehmann B. Valuation of agricultural land-use scenarios with choice experiments: a political market share approach. J. Environ. Plan. Manag. 2011, 54:93-113.
62. Huber R., Rigling A., Bebi P., Brand F.S., Briner S., Buttler A., Elkin C., Gillet F., Grêt-Regamey A., Hirschi C., Lischke H., Scholz R.W., Seidl R., Spiegelberger T., Walz A., Zimmermann W., Bugmann H. Sustainable land use in mountain regions under global change: synthesis across scales and disciplines. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
63. Hunziker M., Felber P., Gehring K., Buchecker M., Bauer N., Kienast F. Evaluation of landscape change by different social groups. Mt. Res. Dev. 2008, 28:140-147.
64. Iwaniec D., Childers D., VanLehn K., Wiek A. Studying, teaching and applying sustainability visions using systems modeling. Sustainability 2014, 6:4452.
65. Kelly R.A., Jakeman A.J., Barreteau O., Borsuk M.E., ElSawah S., Hamilton S.H., Henriksen H.J., Kuikka S., Maier H.R., Rizzoli A.E., van Delden H., Voinov A.A. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 47:159-181.
66. Kirchner M., Schmidt J., Kindermann G., Kulmer V., Mitter H., Prettenthaler F., Rüdisser J., Schauppenlehner T., Schönhart M., Strauss F., Tappeiner U., Tasser E., Schmid E. Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes - the impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies. Ecol. Econ. 2015, 109:161-174.
67. Koellner T. Supply and Demand for Ecosystem Services in Mountainous Regions 2009, na.
68. Kok K., van Vliet M., Bärlund I., Dubel A., Sendzimir J. Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: experiences from the SCENES project. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:835-851.
69. Kok M., Vermeulen W., Faaji A., Jager D. Global Warming and Social Innovation: the Challenge of a Climate Neutral Society 2003, Earthscan, London.
70. Koomen E., Rietveld P., de Nijs T. Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support. Ann. Reg. Sci. 2008, 42:1-10.
71. Koomen E., Stillwell J. Modelling land-use change. Theories and methods. Modelling Land-use Change. Progress and Applications 2007, Springer, Dordecht, NE. E. Koomen, J. Stillwell, A. Bakema, H.J. Scholten (Eds.).
72. Koppelman F. Non-linear utility functions in models of travel choice behavior. Transportation 1981, 10:127-146.
73. Kumar P., Brondizio E., Gatzweiler F., Gowdy J., de Groot D., Pascual U., Reyers B., Sukhdev P. The economics of ecosystem services: from local analysis to national policies. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 5:78-86.
74. Labiosa W.B., Forney W.M., Esnard A.M., Mitsova-Boneva D., Bernknopf R., Hearn P., Hogan D., Pearlstine L., Strong D., Gladwin H., Swain E. An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: the ecosystem portfolio model. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 41:210-222.
75. Laniak G.F., Olchin G., Goodall J., Voinov A., Hill M., Glynn P., Whelan G., Geller G., Quinn N., Blind M., Peckham S., Reaney S., Gaber N., Kennedy R., Hughes A. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 39:3-23.
76. Liu J., Hull V., Batistella M., DeFries R., Dietz T., Fu F., Hertel T.W., Izaurralde R.C., Lambin E.F., Li S., Martinelli L.A., McConnell W.J., Moran E.F., Naylor R., Ouyang Z., Polenske K.R., Reenberg A., de Miranda Rocha G., Simmons C.S., Verburg P.H., Vitousek P.M., Zhang F., Zhu C. Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
77. Louviere J.J., Flynn T.N., Carson R.T. Discrete choice experiments are not conjoint analysis. J. Choice Model. 2010, 3:57-72.
78. Louviere J.J., Hensher D.A., Swait J.D. Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications 2000, Cambridge University Press.
79. Lovins A.B. Soft Energy Paths: toward a Durable Peace 1977, Friends of the Earth International/Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambrigde, MA.
80. Maes J., Egoh B., Willemen L., Liquete C., Vihervaara P., Schägner J.P., Grizzetti B., Drakou E.G., Notte A.L., Zulian G., Bouraoui F., Luisa Paracchini M., Braat L., Bidoglio G. Mapping ecosystem services for policy support and decision making in the European Union. Ecosyst. Serv. 2012, 1:31-39.
81. Mahmoud M., Liu Y., Hartmann H., Stewart S., Wagener T., Semmens D., Stewart R., Gupta H., Dominguez D., Dominguez F. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environ. Model. Softw. 2009, 24:798-808.
82. Malczewski J. GIS and Mulitcriteria Decision Analysis 1999, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
83. Mattila T., Antikainen R. Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe 2050. Energy Policy 2011, 39:8.
84. McFadden D. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. Frontiers in Econometrics 1973, Academic Press, New York. P. Zaremka (Ed.).
85. Metzger M.J., Rounsevell M.D.A., Acosta-Michlik L., Leemans R., Schröter D. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2006, 114:69-85.
86. Metzger M.J., Rounsevell M.D.A., Van den Heiligenberg H.A.R.M., Pérez-Soba M., Soto Hardiman P. How personal judgment influences scenario development: an example for future rural development in Europe. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15.
87. Morris M.D. Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments. Technometrics 1991, 33:161-174.
88. Murray-Rust D., Rieser V., Robinson D.T., Miličič V., Rounsevell M. Agent-based modelling of land use dynamics and residential quality of life for future scenarios. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 46:75-89.
89. Nelson E., Mendoza G., Regetz J., Polasky S., Tallis H., Cameron D., Chan K.M.A., Daily G.C., Goldstein J., Kareiva P.M., Lonsdorf E., Naidoo R., Ricketts T.H., Shaw M. Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commodity production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2009, 7:4-11.
90. Nelson E.J., Daily G.C. Modelling ecosystem services in terrestrial systems. F1000 Biol. Rep. 2010, 2:53.
91. Olschewski R., Bebi P., Teich M., Hayek U.W., Grêt-Regamey A. Avalanche protection by forests-a choice experiment in the Swiss Alps. For. Policy Econ. 2012, 17:19-24.
92. Pinter M., Kirner L. Strategies of disadvantaged mountain dairy farmers as indicators of agricultural structural change: a case study of Murau, Austria. Land Use Policy 2014, 38:441-453.
93. Polasky S., Carpenter S.R., Folke C., Keeler B. Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2011, 26:398-404.
94. Polasky S., Nelson E., Pennington D., Johnson K. The impact of land-use change on ecosystem services, biodiversity and returns to landowners: a case study in the state of Minnesota. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2011, 48:219-242.
95. Quist J., Thissen W., Vergragt P.J. The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: from vision to niche. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:883-897.
96. Quist J., Vergragt P. Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 2006, 38:1027-1045.
97. Reed M.S., Hubacek K., Bonn A., Burt T.P., Holden J., Stringer L.C., Beharry-Borg N., Buckmaster S., Chapman D., Chapman P.J., Clay G.D., Cornell S.J., Dougill A.J., Evely A.C., Fraser E.D.G., Jin N., Irvine B.J., Kirkby M.J., Kunin W.E., Prell C., Quinn C.H., Slee B., Stagl S., Termansen M., Thorp S., Worrall F. Anticipating and managing future trade-offs and complementarities between ecosystem services. Ecol. Soc. 2013, 18.
98. Refsgaard J.C., van der Sluijs J.P., Højberg A.L., Vanrolleghem P.A. Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process-a framework and guidance. Environ. Model. Softw. 2007, 22:1543-1556.
99. Robèrt M. Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning: information technology and individual preferences of travel. J. Clean. Prod. 2005, 13:841-851.
100. Robinson J. Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures 1990, 22:820-842.
101. Robinson J. Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning. Futures 2003, 35:839-856.
102. Robinson J., Burch S., Talwar S., O'Shea M., Walsh M. Envisioning sustainability: recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:756-768.
103. Robinson J.B. Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy 1982, 10:337-344.
104. Rounsevell M.D.A., Metzger M.J. Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2010, vol. 1:606-619.
105. Rounsevell M.D.A., Pedroli B., Erb K.-H., Gramberger M., Busck A.G., Haberl H., Kristensen S., Kuemmerle T., Lavorel S., Lindner M., Lotze-Campen H., Metzger M.J., Murray-Rust D., Popp A., Pérez-Soba M., Reenberg A., Vadineanu A., Verburg P.H., Wolfslehner B. Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy 2012, 29:899-910.
106. Ryffel A.N., Rid W., Grêt-Regamey A. Land use trade-offs for flood protection: a choice experiment with visualizations. Ecosyst. Serv. 2014, 10:111-123.
107. Schirpke U., Leitinger G., Tasser E., Schermer M., Steinbacher M., Tappeiner U. Multiple ecosystem services of a changing Alpine landscape: past, present and future. Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag. 2012, 9:123-135.
108. Scholes R.J., Reyers B., Biggs R., Spierenburg M.J., Duriappah A. Multi-scale and cross-scale assessments of social-ecological systems and their ecosystem services. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 5:16-25.
109. Schreinemachers P., Berger T. An agent-based simulation model of human-environment interactions in agricultural systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26:845-859.
110. Schröter D., Cramer W., Leemans R., Prentice I.C., Araújo M.B., Arnell N.W., Bondeau A., Bugmann H., Carter T.R., Gracia C.A., de la Vega-Leinert A.C., Erhard M., Ewert F., Glendining M., House J.I., Kankaanpää S., Klein R.J.T., Lavorel S., Lindner M., Metzger M.J., Meyer J., Mitchell T.D., Reginster I., Rounsevell M., Sabaté S., Sitch S., Smith B., Smith J., Smith P., Sykes M.T., Thonicke K., Thuiller W., Tuck G., Zaehle S., Zierl B. Ecosystem service Supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 2005, 310:1333-1337.
111. Schulp C.J.E., Lautenbach S., Verburg P.H. Quantifying and mapping ecosystem services: demand and supply of pollination in the European Union. Ecol. Indic. 2014, 36:131-141.
112. Schumacher S., Bugmann H., Mladenoff D.J. Improving the formulation of tree growth and succession in a spatially explicit landscape model. Ecol. Model. 2004, 180:175-194.
113. Seppelt R., Dormann C.F., Eppink F.V., Lautenbach S., Schmidt S. A quantitative review of ecosystem service studies: approaches, shortcomings and the road ahead. J. Appl. Ecol. 2011, 48:630-636.
114. SFSO Arealstatistik der Schweiz. Topography 2009, Bern, Switzerland. S.F.O.o. (Ed.).
115. SFSO Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Kantone der Schweiz 2010-2035 2011, Neuenburg, Switzerland. S.F.S. Office (Ed.).
116. SFSO Swiss Agriculture - Pocket Statistics 2015 2015, Neuchâtel, Switzerland. S.F.S. Office (Ed.).
117. Shoyama K., Managi S., Yamagata Y. Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: a choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators. Land Use Policy 2013, 34:282-293.
118. Strachan N., Pye S., Hughes N. The role of international drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon society. Clim. Policy 2008, 8:S125-S139.
119. Stürck J., Poortinga A., Verburg P.H. Mapping ecosystem services: the supply and demand of flood regulation services in Europe. Ecol. Indic. 2014, 38:198-211.
120. Swisstopo Vector25 2004, Wabern, Switzerland. Swisstopo (Ed.).
121. Swisstopo Digital elevation model DHM 25. Topography 2005, Wabern, Switzerland. S.F.O.o. (Ed.).
122. Tallis H., Mooney H., Andelman S., Balvanera P., Cramer W., Karp D., Polasky S., Reyers B., Ricketts T., Running S., Thonicke K., Tietjen B., Walz A. A global system for monitoring ecosystem service change. BioScience 2012, 62:977-986.
123. Turner B.L., Lambin E.F., Reenberg A. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2007, 104:20666-20671.
124. Uusitalo L., Lehikoinen A., Helle I., Myrberg K. An overview of methods to evaluate uncertainty of deterministic models in decision support. Environ. Model. Softw. 2015, 63:24-31.
125. van Berkel D.B., Verburg P.H. Spatial quantification and valuation of cultural ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape. Ecol. Indic. 2014, 37:163-174. Part A.
126. van Schrojenstein Lantman J., Verburg P., Bregt A., Geertman S. Core principles and concepts in land-use modelling: a literature review. Land-use Modelling in Planning Practice 2011, Springer, Utrecht, NE. E. Koomen, J. Borsboom-van Beurden (Eds.).
127. Verburg P., Schot P., Dijst M., Veldkamp A. Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal 2004, 61:309-324.
128. Verburg P.H., Erb K.-H., Mertz O., Espindola G. Land system science: between global challenges and local realities. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 5:433-437.
129. Verburg P.H., van de Steeg J., Veldkamp A., Willemen L. From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization. J. Environ. Manag. 2009, 90:1327-1335.
130. Vergragt P.J., Quist J. Backcasting for sustainability: introduction to the special issue. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78:747-755.
131. Voinov A., Seppelt R., Reis S., Nabel J.E.M.S., Shokravi S. Values in socio-environmental modelling: persuasion for action or excuse for inaction. Environ. Model. Softw. 2014, 53:207-212.
132. Voinov A., Shugart H.H. 'Integronsters', integral and integrated modeling. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 39:149-158.
133. Vollmer D., Prescott M.F., Padawangi R., Girot C., Grêt-Regamey A. Understanding the value of urban riparian corridors: considerations in planning for cultural services along an Indonesian river. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2015, 138:144-154.
134. Walz A., Braendle J.M., Lang D.J., Brand F., Briner S., Elkin C., Hirschi C., Huber R., Lischke H., Schmatz D.R. Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2014, 86:21-32.
135. Wiek A., Iwaniec D. Quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science. Sustain. Sci. 2014, 9:497-512.
136. Wilson C., Tansey J., LeRoy S. Integrating backcasting & decision analytic approaches to policy formulation: a conceptual framework. Integr. Assess. 2006, 6.
137. Wolff S., Schulp C.J.E., Verburg P.H. Mapping ecosystem services demand: a review of current research and future perspectives. Ecol. Indic. 2015, 55:159-171.
138. Zurek M.B., Henrichs T. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2007, 74:1282-1295.