GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management

Futures

Volumn 44, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 292-302

  Haslauer, Eva ^a,b   Biberacher, Markus ^b   Blaschke, Thomas ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SALZBURG   (Austria)

^b Research Studios Austria Forschungsgesellschaft mbH   (Austria)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENERGY RESOURCE; ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION; GIS; PARAMETERIZATION; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SPATIAL PLANNING; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 84858283615     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.012     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. J.S. Armstrong, F. Collopy, K.C. Green, Forecasting principles. Evidence-based forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, 2009, Web: (05/2010). http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php%3Foption=com_content%26task=view%26id=3%26Itemid=3.
2. Berkhout F. Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 2006, 18:299-311.
3. M. Biberacher, Modelling and Optimisation of Future Energy Systems using Spatial and Temporal Methods, Dissertation, University of Augsburg in cooperation with the Max-Planck-Institute for Plasma Physics, Garching, 2004.
4. Blaschke T. The role of the spatial dimension within the framework of sustainable landscapes and natural capital. Landscape and Urban Planning 2006, 75:198-226.
5. Botequilha A.B., Leitao J.Ahern Applying landscape ecological concepts and metrics to sustainable land planning. Landscape and Urban Planning 2002, 59:65-93.
6. Dreborg K.H. Essence of Backcasting. Futures 1996, 28:813-828.
7. ArcGIS Resource Center, Definition of Python Software, Web: (04/2010). http://resources.arcgis.com/de/gallery/video/ArcGIS-Desktop-Videos/details%3FentryID=E14B4CF5-1422-2418-8850-48323EDFEB25.
8. European Spatial Planning Observation Network (ESPON), ESPON Project 3.2: Spatial Scenarios and Orientations in relation to the ESDP and Cohesion Policy, final report 3.2, Vol. II, October 2006, Web: (04/2011). http://www.espon.eu/export/sites/default/Documents/Projects/ESPON2006Projects/CoordinatingCrossThematicProjects/Scenarios/fr-3.2_final-report_vol2.pdf.
9. Georghiou L. The UK Technology Foresight Programme. Futures 1996, 28:359-377.
10. Goodchild M.F. Geographic information systems and science: today and tomorrow. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 2009, 1:1037-1043.
11. J.M. Fernández Güell, Can Foresight Studies Strengthen Strategic Planning Processes at the Urban and Regional Level? Sevilla, 2010.
12. Höjer M., Mattsson L.G. Determinism and backcasting in future studies. Futures 2000, 32:613-634.
13. Holmberg J. Backcasting: a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. Greener Management International 1998, 23:30-51.
14. Klug H. Application of a vision in the Lake District of Salzburg. Futures 2010, 42:668-681.
15. H. Klug, The Leitbild concept: a holistic transdisciplinary approach for landscape planning, PhD Thesis, University of Salzburg, 2006.
16. Longley P.A., Goodchild F., Maguire D.J., Rhind D.W. Geographic Information Systems and Science 2005, Wiley, New York.
17. Martin B. Technology Foresight in a Rapidly Globalizing Economy. Invited Presentation at the international conference on Technology Foresight for Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States 2001.
18. Mc Harg I. Design with Nature 1992, Wiley & Sons, New York, Chichester.
19. Nelson B.L. Stochastic Modelling: Analysis & Simulation 1995, McGraw-Hill, New York.
20. österreichische Raumordnungskonferenz (öROK) (ed.), Szenarien der Raumentwicklung österreichs 2030. Ragionale Herausforderungen und Handlungsstrategien, öROK scientific series 176/II (2009).
21. Potschin M., Klug H., Haines-Young R.H. From vision to action: framing the Leitbild concept in the context of landscape planning. Futures 2010, 42:656-667.
22. Prinz T., Räumliche Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren als Planungsgrundlage. Integrative Bewertung von Siedlungsflächen in der Stadt Salzburg 2007, Dissertation, University of Salzburg.
23. Quist J. Backcasting for a Sustainable Future: the Impact after 10 years 2007, Eburon, Delft.
24. Robèrt M. Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning Information technology and individual preferences of travel. Journal of Cleaner Production 2005, 13:841-851.
25. Robinson J., Carmichael J., VanWynsberghe R., Journeay M., Rogers L. Sustainability as a problem of design: interactive science in the Georgia Basin. The Integrated Assessment Journal 2006, 6:165-192.
26. Robinson J. Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning. Futures 2003, 35:839-856.
27. Robinson J. Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures 1990, 22:820-843.
28. Robinson J. Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy 1982, 10:337-344.
29. M. Scheutzow, Stochastische Modelle, lecture notes, winter semester 2006/2007, TU, Berlin, 2003.
30. Schulz-Montag B., Müller-Stoffels M., Szenarien Instrumente für Innovations- und Strategieprozesse. Szenariotechnik. Vom Umgang mit der Zukunft 2006, Haupt Verlag, Bern, Stuttgart, Wien. 1st ed. E.P. Falko, Wilms (Eds.).
31. Social Security Association of the U.S., What is a Stochastic Model, Web: (09/2011). http://www.ssa.gov/oact/stochastic/index.html.
32. W. Spitzer, T. Prinz, Räumliche Siedlungsindikatoren (Spatial indicators for settlement), final report, in cooperation with Land Salzburg - Abt. 7: Raumplanung, 2010.
33. W. Spitzer, Zersiedelung-Quantifizierung eines mehrdimensionalen Begriffs, Master Thesis, University of Salzburg, 2007.
34. Squires G.D. Urban Sprawl: Causes Consequences & Policy Responses 2002, The Urban Institute Press, Washington.
35. Stiens G. Szenarien zur Raumentwicklung. Raum- und Siedlungsstrukturen Deutschlands 2015/2040. Forschungen 2003, 112..
36. Tevis R.E. Creating the future: goal-oriented scenario planning. Futures 2010, 42:337-344.
37. Transtutors, Difference between Forecasting and Prediction, Web: (09/2011). http://www.transtutors.com/homework-help/Industrial+Management/Forecasting/difference-between-forecasting-and-prediction.aspx.
38. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Technology Foresight Manual, Volume I-Organisation and Methods, Vienna, 2005.
39. United Nations Documents, Resolution 42/187: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, New York, 1987.
40. Vergragt P. Backcasting for environmental sustainability: from STD and SusHouse towards Implementation. Towards Environmental Innovation Systems 2005, 301-318. Springer, Heidelberg. M. Weber, J. Hemmelskamp (Eds.).
41. VLEEM Consortium, VLEEM 2: final report (2005). Web: (04/2010). http://www.enerdata.net/VLEEM/PDF/30-05-05/final%20report.pdf.
42. Weaver P., Jansen L., van Grootveld G., van Spiegel E., Vergragt P. Sustainable Technology Development 2000, Greenleaf Publishers, Sheffield.