Essence of backcasting

Futures

Volumn 28, Issue 9, 1996, Pages 813-828

  Dreborg, Karl H ^a  

^a STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001295715     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0016-3287(96)00044-4     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. The concept of sustainability was launched by the World Commission on Environment and Development, see Brundtland Commission in Our Common Future (Oxford University Press, 1987).
2. Robinson, 'Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis', Energy Policy, December 1982. Robinson credits the idea to Amory Lovins.
3. Robinson, 'Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict', Futures, October 1990.
4. T B Johansson and P Steen, Solar Sweden - An Outline of a Renewable Energy System (Secretariat for Futures Studies, Stockhom, 1978).
5. M Lönnroth, T B Johansson and P Steen, 'Sweden beyond oil: nuclear commitments and solar options', Science, 208, 1980, pages 557-563.
6. T B Johansson, P Steen, R Fredriksson and E Bogren, 'Sweden beyond oil: the efficient use of energy', Science, 219, February 1983, pages 355-361.
7. K H Dreborg and P Steen, A Swedish Transportation Futures Study (Working Paper, Stockholm University, 1994).
8. M Jungmar et al, Progress Report - A Low-waste/Ecocyclic Society and its Boundaries (Stockholm University, 1995).
9. P Steen and J Åkerrnan, 'Syntes av studier över omställning av energi-och transportsystemen i Sverige' in SOU 1994:138, a report from the Swedish Governmental Committee on Climate (the report is in Swedish).
10. A Kaijser, A Mogren and P Steen, 'Changing direction', Energy Policy and New Technology, (Report 1991:R5, Statens Energiverk, Stockholm, 1991).
11. That this actually was a result of the Swedish energy futures studies by Steen et al is testified in B Wittrock, 'Long-range forecasting and policy-making - options and limits in choosing a future', in T Whiston (editor), The Use and Abuses of Forecasting (Brighton, Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex, 1979), page 281.
12. See reference 9.
13. P Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (London, Century Business, 1992).
14. U von Reibnitz, Scenario Techniques (Hamburg; New York, McGraw-Hill, 1988).
15. B Schwartz, 'Forecasting and scenarios', in H J Miser and E S Quade (editors), Handbook of Systems Analysis - Craft Issues and Procedural Choices (Chichester, John Wiley and Sons, 1988), pages 327-367.
16. A Kahane, 'Scenarios for energy: sustainable world vs global mercantilism', Long Range Planning, 25 (4), 1992, pages 38-46.
17. See op cit, reference 13, pages 97-104.
18. J M Stewart, 'Future state visioning - a powerful leadership process', Long Range Planning, 26 (6), 1993, pages 89-98.
19. P R Stokke et al, 'Visioning (and preparing for) the future: the introduction of scenario based planning into Statoil', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 40, 1991, pages 73-86.
20. See reference 18.
21. See reference 3.
22. B de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture (New York, Basic Books, 1967).
23. M Goudet, 'Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, consistent and likely scenarios', Futures, September 1990, pages 730-739.
24. K Valaskakis, 'At the cross-roads of "futurism" and "prospective": towards a Canadian synthesis', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 33, 1988, pages 339-353.
25. R L Olson, 'Alternative images of a sustainable future', Futures, March 1994, pages 156-169.
26. F Polak, The Image of the future (Amsterdam, Elsevier, 1973).
27. German synonyms for Leitbild are Ideal, Wunschbild and Vorbild (Dierkes et al, see reference 28. I propose the term guiding image as a translation into English. Inspiring vision would be an alternative.
28. M Dierkes, U Hoffmann and L Marz, Leitbild und Technik: Zur Enstehung und Steuerung technischer Innovationen (Sigma, Berlin 1992).
29. L Marz, Leitbild und Diskurs (Berlin, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, 1993).
30. See note 3.
31. T S Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Second edn, Fifth Imp., 1974).
32. This concept was introduced by Michael Polanyi, see M. Polanyi, Personal Knowledge; Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy, 1957.
33. See note 31, op. cit. pages 10-42.
34. See E. de Bono, Lateral Thinking, (Pelican Books, Middlesex, 1983) for a comparison of vertical and lateral thinking.
35. The history of the two principles is being reviewed by von Wright, Explanation and Understanding, (Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1971).
36. See note 35, op, cit., pages 3-4.
37. See Anscombe, Intention, (Basil Blackwell, Oxford; 1957).
38. Winch The Idea of a Social Science and its Relation to Philosophy, (Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1958).
39. Dray (1957), Laws and explanation in History (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1957).
40. M Midgley, Science as Salvation; A Modern Myth and its Meaning, (Routledge, London, 1992), pages 9-11.
41. C G Hempel, 'The Function of General Laws in History', The Journal of Philosophy, 39, 1942, pages 35-48.
42. K R Popper, The Poverty of Historicism, [Routledge & Kegan Paul, London 1961 (1957)].
43. This concept is associated with Hempel, but the term "covering law model" was actually proposed by Dray, who was a critic of the theory, see note 39, op. cit. page 1.
44. See note 41, op, cit. § 4, page 38.
45. J Elster, Explaining Technical Change, (Cambridge, 1983), pages 17-19 and 49-67.
46. See note 35, op. cit. pages 16-17 and 22.
47. See note 45, op. cit. page 21.
48. See note 35, op. cit. chapter 3.
49. See note 38, op. cit. chapter 4.
50. See note 45, op. cit. page 23.
51. See note 45, op. cit. page 84.
52. See note 45, op. cit. page 86.
53. See for example Pearman, 1986, Scenario construction for transport planning, Transportation Planning and Technology, 12, 1988, pp. 73-85.
54. This is admitted by some adherents of the general law theory. Popper (see note 42) draws the conclusion that real long term predictions of social phenomena as well as predictions of the future state of society as a whole are not meaningful. The social sciences should confine themselves to short or medium term analyses of well defined aspects of social life.
55. S. Owens, 'From 'predict and provide' to 'predict and prevent'?: pricing and planning in transport policy', Transport Policy, 2(1), 1995, pages 43-49.
56. S Peake, Transport in Transition, (1994), pages 6 and 96.
57. S Peake and C Hope, Sustainable mobility in context; three transport scenarios for the UK, Transport policy, 1(3), 1994, pages 195-207.
58. See note 57. Peake and Hope argue for such a policy, the aim of which would be to increase society's transport efficiency.
59. These could be labelled the cognitive factors influencing choice. In addition there are other factors such as emotions, attitudes, values etc., which are non-cognitive.
60. See note 42, op. cit., the Preface.
61. By (historical) idealism is meant the view that history is governed by human ideas, which evolve and spread essentially unaffected by prevailing social and economic conditions. The opposite view, materialism, holds that material conditions, class structure etc. determine what ideas will emerge and reach acceptance. The most prominent exponent of this view is, of course, Marx with his concept of historical materialism. (Marx, Engels, Werke, Band 8, Dietz Verlag, Berlin 1960, page 139). Cf. also the sociology of knowledge school of thought (K Mannheim, Ideology and Utopia, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1936). There are also more or less sophisticated theories about mutual conditioning between material and social conditions on the one hand and ideas and knowledge on the other (Asplund, J, Teorier om framtiden, Liber Förlag, Falköping 1979 - in Swedish).
62. By (historical) idealism is meant the view that history is governed by human ideas, which evolve and spread essentially unaffected by prevailing social and economic conditions. The opposite view, materialism, holds that material conditions, class structure etc. determine what ideas will emerge and reach acceptance. The most prominent exponent of this view is, of course, Marx with his concept of historical materialism. (Marx, Engels, Werke, Band 8, Dietz Verlag, Berlin 1960, page 139). Cf. also the sociology of knowledge school of thought (K Mannheim, Ideology and Utopia, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1936). There are also more or less sophisticated theories about mutual conditioning between material and social conditions on the one hand and ideas and knowledge on the other (Asplund, J, Teorier om framtiden, Liber Förlag, Falköping 1979 - in Swedish).
63. By (historical) idealism is meant the view that history is governed by human ideas, which evolve and spread essentially unaffected by prevailing social and economic conditions. The opposite view, materialism, holds that material conditions, class structure etc. determine what ideas will emerge and reach acceptance. The most prominent exponent of this view is, of course, Marx with his concept of historical materialism. (Marx, Engels, Werke, Band 8, Dietz Verlag, Berlin 1960, page 139). Cf. also the sociology of knowledge school of thought (K Mannheim, Ideology and Utopia, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1936). There are also more or less sophisticated theories about mutual conditioning between material and social conditions on the one hand and ideas and knowledge on the other (Asplund, J, Teorier om framtiden, Liber Förlag, Falköping 1979 - in Swedish).
64. See note 42, op. cit. page vi of the Preface.
65. Normally, a totally new idea or new knowledge will not be implemented immediately. There is a time span between the emergence of a new idea and its being widely applied in production, communication, consumption etc. Therefore, only already existing knowledge and ideas may have a profound influence in the short run.
66. See reference 54.
67. A Rip, van den Belt, Constructive Technology Assessment: Toward a Theory (University of Amsterdam, 1988).
68. L Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations (Oxford, Basil Blackwell 1958), section 570.