Ask and Ye shall receive? Automated text mining of michigan capital facility finance bond election proposals to identify which topics are associated with bond passage and voter turnout

Journal of Education Finance

Volumn 41, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 164-196

  Bowers, Alex J ^a   Chen, Jingjing ^a  

^a Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84949211236     PISSN: 00989495     EISSN: 19446470     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. Alexander, Debbie, Laurie Lewis, and John Ralph. 2014. Condition of America's Public School Facilities: 2012-13 (NCES 2014-022). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
2. Arlot, Sylvain, and Alain Celisse. 2010. "A survey of cross-validation procedures for model selection." Statistical Surveys no. 4:40-79.
3. Arsen, David, T. Clay, T Devaney, and R. Fulcher-Dawson. 2005. Adequacy, equity, and capital spending in Michigan schools: The unfinished business of Proposal A. East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University, Education Policy Center.
4. Arsen, David, and Thomas Davis. 2006. "Taj Mahals or decaying shacks: Patterns in local school capital stock and unmet capital need." Peabody Journal of Education no. 81 (4):1-22.
5. Arsen, David, D.N. Plank, and Gary Sykes. 1999. School choice politics in Michigan: The rules matter. East Lansing: Michigan State University.
6. Augenblick, Ned, and Scott Nicholson. 2012. Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter Behavior. Berkeley, CA: University of California, Berkeley.
7. Baker, Ryan SJd, and Kalina Yacef. 2009. "The State of Educational Data Mining in 2009: A Review and Future Visions." Journal of Educational Data Mining no. 1 (1):3-16.
8. Bauscher, Richard H. 1993. Winning school bonds at the polls. School and College, 15-16.
9. Beckham, James, and Jeffrey Maiden. 2003. "The effects of technology inclusion on school bond election success in Oklahoma." Journal of Education Finance no. 28 (4):557-574.
10. Berkman, Michael B., and Eric Plutzer. 2005. Ten thousand democracies: Politics and public opinion in America's school districts. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
11. Blais, Andre. 2000. To vote or not to vote? The merits and limits of rational choice theory. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
12. Blei, David M. 2012. "Probablistic topic models." Communications of the ACM no. 55 (4):77-84.
13. Blei, David M., and John D. Lafferty. 2007. "A Correlated Topic Model of Science." The Annals of Applied Statistics no. 1 (1):17-35. doi: 10.2307/4537420.
14. Blei, David M., and John D. Lafferty. 2009. "Topic models." Text mining: classification, clustering, and applications no. 10:71-86.
15. Borooah, Vani K. 2002. Logit and probit: Ordered and multinomial models. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
16. Boschee, Floyd, and Carleton R. Holt. 1999. School bond success: A strategy for building America's schools. Lancaster, PA: Technomic Publishing.
17. Bowers, Alex J. 2014. "Bonds in School Financing." In Encyclopedia of Education Economics and Finance, edited by Dominic J. Brewer and Lawrence O. Picus. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
18. Bowers, Alex J. 2015. "Voter's Role in Deciding School Facility Issues." UCEA Review no. 56 (1):20-21.
19. Bowers, Alex J., and Jooyoung Lee. 2013. "Carried or Defeated? Examining the Factors Associated With Passing School District Bond Elections in Texas, 1997-2009." Educational Administration Quarterly no. 49 (5):732-767. doi: 10.1177/0013161x13486278.
20. Bowers, Alex J., Scott A. Metzger, and Matthew Militello. 2010a. "Knowing the odds: Parameters that predict passing or failing school district bonds." Educational Policy no. 24 (2):398-420. doi: 10.1177/0895904808330169.
21. Bowers, Alex J., Scott A. Metzger, and Matthew Militello. 2010b. "Knowing what matters: An expanded study of school bond elections in Michigan, 1998-2006." Journal of Education Finance no. 35 (4):374-396. doi: 10.1353/jef.0.0024.
22. Bowers, Alex J., and Ryan Sprott. 2012a. "Examining the Multiple Trajectories Associated with Dropping Out of High School: A Growth Mixture Model Analysis." Journal of Educational Research no. 105 (3):176-195. doi: 10.1080/00220671.2011.552075.
23. Bowers, Alex J., and Ryan Sprott. 2012b. "Why tenth graders fail to finish high school: A dropout typology latent class analysis." Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk no. 17 (3):129-148. doi: 10.1080/10824669.2012.692071.
24. Bowers, Alex J., and Angela Urick. 2011. "Does high school facility quality affect student achievement? A 2-level hierarchical linear model." Journal of Education Finance no. 37 (1):72-94.
25. Bowers, Alex J., and Bradford R. White. 2014. "Do Principal Preparation and Teacher Qualifications Influence Different Types of School Growth Trajectories in Illinois? A Growth Mixture Model Analysis." Journal of Educational Administration no. 52 (5):705-736. doi: 10.1108/JEA- 12-2012-0134.
26. Bowler, Shaun, and Todd Donovan. 1998. Demanding choices: Opinion, voting and direct democracy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
27. Bowler, Shaun, Todd Donovan, and Trudi Happ. 1992. "Ballot Propositions and Information Costs: Direct Democracy and the Fatigued Voter." The Western Political Quarterly no. 45 (2):559-568. doi: 10.2307/448727.
28. Breiman, Leo, and Philip Spector. 1992. "Submodel Selection and Evaluation in Regression. The X-Random Case." International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique no. 60 (3):291-319. doi: 10.2307/1403680.
29. Button, James W., and Walter A. Rosenbaum. 1989. "Seeing gray: School bond issues and the aging in Florida." Research on Aging no. 11 (2):158-173. doi: 10.1177/0164027589112002.
30. Cellini, Stephanie Riegg, Fernando Ferreira, and Jesse Rothstein. 2010. "The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design." The Quarterly Journal of Economics no. 125 (1):215-261. doi: 10.1162/qjec.2010.125.1.215.
31. Cheng, Gracye, Steve English, and Mary Filardo. 2011. Facilities: Fairness and Effects: Evidence and recommendations concerning the impact of school facilities on civil rights and student achievement. Washington, DC: 21st Century School Fund.
32. Chung, Connie. 2002. Using Public Schools as Community-Development Tools: Strategies for Community-Based Developers. Cambridge, MA: Jount Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.
33. Collingwood, Loren, and Timothy P. Jurka. 2011. Getting Started with Latent Dirichlet Allocation using RTextTools + topicmodels. In RTextTools: a machine learning library for text classification.
34. Conlin, Michael, Walter Melnik, and Paul Thompson. 2015. Ballot Order, Ballot Roll-Off and Home Sales: Evidence from Local Referenda in Ohio. In Annual meeting of the Association of Education Finance and Policy (AEFP). Washington, DC.
35. Cornman, Stephan Q. 2015. Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education: School Year 2011-12 (Fiscal Year 2012) (NCES 2014-301). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
36. Crampton, Faith E. 2003. "Unmet school infrastructure funding need as a critical educational capacity issue." In Saving America's school infrastructure:, edited by Faith E. Crampton and David C. Thompson, 3-26. Greenwich, CT: Information Age Publishing.
37. Crampton, Faith E., David C. Thompson, and Janis M. Hagey. 2001. "Creating and sustaining school capacity in the twenty-first century: funding a physical environment conducive to student learning." Journal of Education Finance no. 27 (2):633-652.
38. Davis, Lynn, and Ben Tyson. 2003. "Strategic bonding." American School Board Journal no. 190 (7):34-36.
39. Davis, Thomas E. 2015. "State and Federal Policies for School Facility Construction: A Comparison of Michigan and Ohio." Educational Administration Quarterly no. 51 (1):3-26. doi: 10.1177/0013161x13508773.
40. Dubois, Philip L., and F Feeney. 1998. Lawmaking by initiative: issues, opinions, and comparisons. New York: Agathon Press.
41. Dunne, Stephanie, W. Robert Reed, and James Wilbanks. 1997. "Endogenizing the median voter: Public choice goes to school." Public Choice no. 93:99-118.
42. Ehrenberg, Ronald G., Randy A. Ehrenberg, Christopher L. Smith, and Liang Zhang. 2004. "Why do school district budget referenda fail?" Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis no. 26 (2):111-125. doi: 10.3102/01623737026002111.
43. Fort, Rodney. 1988. "The median voter, setters, and non-repeated construction bond issues." Public Choice no. 56:213-231.
44. Fort, Rodney, and Douglas N. Bunn. 1998. "Whether one votes and how one votes." Public Choice no. 95:51-62. doi: 10.1023/A:1004934330814.
45. Frantz, J. Thomas. 2014. "The Bricks and Mortar Superintendency: How to Survive a Building Project." Education no. 134 (3):384-394.
46. Glass, Gene V. 2008. Fertilizers, pills and magnetic strips: The fate of public education in American. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Publishing.
47. Godown, Michael P. 2010. Factors Influencing the Successful Passage of a School Bond Referendum as Identified by New Jersey School Superintendents, Widener University, Chester, PA.
48. Gong, Huan, and Cynthia L. Rogers. 2014. "Does Voter Turnout Influence School Bond Elections?" Southern Economic Journal no. 81 (1):247-262. doi: 10.4284/0038-4038-2013.061.
49. Grun, Bettina, and Kurt Hornik. 2011. "topicmodels: An R Package for Fitting Topic Models." Journal of Statistical Software no. 40 (13):1-30.
50. Hiller, Stephen C., and Terry E. Spradlin. 2010. School Referenda in Indiana. Bloomington, IN: Center for Evaluation and Education Policy, Indiana University.
51. Hofmann, Thomas. 1999. Probabilistic latent semantic indexing. In Proceedings of the 22nd annual international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and development in information retrieval. Berkeley, California, USA: ACM.
52. Holcombe, RandallG, and LawrenceW Kenny. 2007. "Evidence on voter preferences from unrestricted choice referendums." Public Choice no. 131 (1-2):197-215. doi: 10.1007/s11127-006- 9113-1.
53. Holt, Carleton R. 2009. School bond success: A strategy for building America's Schools. 3rd ed: Rowman & Littlefield Education.
54. Holt, Carleton R., Matthew A. Wendt, and Roland M. Smith. 2006. "School bond success: An exploratory case study." Rural Educator no. 27 (2):11-18.
55. Hong, Kai, and Ron W. Zimmer. 2014. Does Investing in School Capital Infrastructure Improve Student Achievement? In Annual meeting of the Association for Education Finance and Policy (AEFP). San Antonio, TX.
56. Ingle, William Kyle, Alex J. Bowers, and Thomas E. Davis. 2014. "Which School Districts Qualified for Federal School Facility Funding Under ARRA? Evidence from Ohio." Journal of Education Finance no. 40 (1):17-37.
57. Ingle, William Kyle, P. A. Johnson, and R. A. Petroff. 2011. "Estimating resource costs of levy campaigns in five Ohio school districts." Journal of Education Finance no. 37 (1):52-71.
58. Ingle, William Kyle, Paul Andrew Johnson, and Ruth Ann Petroff. 2012. ""Hired guns" and "legitimate voices": The politics and participants of levy campaigns in five Ohio school districts." Educational Administration Quarterly no. 48 (5):814-858. doi: 10.1177/0013161X12448251.
59. Ingle, William Kyle, Paul Andrew Johnson, Matt Ryan Givens, and Jerry Rampelt. 2013. "Campaign Expenditures in School Levy Referenda and Their Relationship to Voter Approval: Evidence From Ohio, 2007-2010." Leadership and Policy in Schools no. 12 (1):1-36. doi: 10.1080/15700763.2013.766347.
60. Johnson, Carl, and Jeffrey Maiden. 2010. "An examination of capital outlay funding mechanisms in Oklahoma." Journal of Education Finance no. 36 (1):1-21.
61. Johnson, Paul A. 2015. "Voters' Role in Deciding School Levies." UCEA Review no. 56 (1):21-23.
62. Junque de Fortuny, Enric, David Martens, and Foster Provost. 2013. "Predictive Modeling With Big Data: Is Bigger Really Better?" Big Data no. 1 (4):215-226. doi: 10.1089/big.2013.0037. RTextTools: Automatic Text Classification via Supervised Learning. R package version 1.3.9.
63. Kastory, Richard C., and Susan J. Harrington. 1996. "Voter perceptions are key to passing a school bond." Educational Research Quarterly no. 20 (1):49-58.
64. Kraus, Brian W. 2009. A descriptive analysis of selected community stakeholder opinions regarding potentially critical factors in school bond referenda success or failure in Kansas during the years 2004-2007. Dissertation, Department of Educational Leadership, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas.
65. Kuhn, Max. 2008. "Building predictive models in R using the caret package." Journal of Statistical Software no. 28 (5):1-26.
66. Ladd, Helen. 1975. "Local education expenditures, fiscal capacity, and the composition of the property tax base." National Tax Journal no. 28 (2):145-158.
67. Lee, Sangno, Jaeki Song, and Yongjin Kim. 2010. "An empirical comparison of four text mining methods." Journal of Computer Information Systems no. 51 (1):1-10.
68. Lentz, Corliss. 1999. "Predicting school referenda outcomes: Answers from Illinois." Journal of Education Finance no. 24 (4):459-482.
69. Martorell, Paco, Isaac McFarlin, and Kevin Stange. 2015. Investing in schools: Capital spending, facility conditions, and student achievement. In Annual meeting of the Association for Education Finance and Policy (AEFP). Washington, DC.
70. Mathison, Thomas R. 1998. "Successful bond elections." School Business Affairs no. 64 (1):30-33.
71. Meredith, Marc. 2009. "The strategic timing of direct democracy." Economics & Politics no. 21 (1):159-177. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0343.2008.00342.x.
72. MIDT. 2014. Qualified school bond loan program. Michigan Department of Treasury 2014 [cited October 20 2014]. Available from http://www.michigan.gov/treasury/0,1607,7-121-1753_56435---,00. html.
73. Militello, Matthew, Scott A. Metzger, and Alex J. Bowers. 2008. "The high school "space race": Implications of a school-choice market environment for a Michigan metropolitan region." Education and Urban Society no. 41 (1):26-54. doi: 10.1177/0013124508321358.
74. NCEF. 2010. National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities. National Institute of Building Sciences 2010 [cited Feb 24 2010]. Available from http://www.edfacilities.org/ds/index.cfm.
75. NCES. 2014. Common Core of Data. National Center for Education Statistics n.d.2014]. Available from http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/.
76. Neilson, Christopher A., and Seth D. Zimmerman. 2014. "The effect of school construction on test scores, school enrollment, and home prices." Journal of Public Economics no. 120 (0):18-31. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.08.002.
77. Picus, Lawrence O., Scott F. Marion, Naomi Calvo, and William J. Glenn. 2005. "Understanding the relationship between student achievement and the quality of educational facilities: Evidence from Wyoming." Peabody Journal of Education no. 80 (3):71-95.
78. Piele, Philip K., and John Stuart Hall. 1973. Budgets, bonds, and ballots: Voting behavior in school financial elections. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books.
79. Ponweiser, Martin. 2012. Latent Dirichlet Allocation in R, Institute for Statistics and Mathematics, Vienna University of Business and Economics, Vienna. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
80. Roberts, Kerry, Shellie L. Hannga, and Sid T. Womack. 2012. The First-Year Experiences of Successful Superintendents Plymouth, UK: Rowman & Littlefield.
81. Roberts, Lance W. 2009. "Measuring school facility conditions: an illustration of the importance of purpose." Journal of Educational Administration no. 47 (3):368-380.
82. Schneider, Barbara, Martin Carnoy, Jeremy Kilpatrick, William H. Schmidt, and Richard J. Shavelson. 2007. Estimating casual effects: Using experimental and observational designs (report from the Governing Board of the American Educational Research Association Grants Program). Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.
83. Schneider, Mark. 2002. Do school facilities affect academic outcomes? Washington, DC: National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities.
84. Schutt, Rachel, and Cathy O'Neil. 2013. Doing Data Science: Straight Talk from the Frontline. Cambridge, MA: O'Reilly.
85. Selb, Peter. 2008. "Supersized votes: ballot length, uncertainty, and choice in direct legislation elections." Public Choice no. 135 (3-4):319-336. doi: 10.1007/s11127-007-9265-7.
86. Shober, Arnold F. 2011. "Attracting capital: Magnets, charters, and school referendum success." Journal of School Choice no. 5 (2). doi: 10.1080/15582159.2011.577676.
87. Sielke, Catherine C. 1998. "Michigan school facilities, equity issues, and voter response to bond issues following finance reform." Journal of Education Finance no. 23 (3):309-322.
88. Sielke, Catherine C. 2001. "Funding school infrastructure needs across the states." Journal of Education Finance no. 27 (2):653-662.
89. Sielke, Catherine C. 2003. "Financing school infrastructure needs: An overview across the 50 states." In Saving America's school infrastructure, edited by Faith E. Crampton and David C. Thompson, 27-52. Greenwich, CT: Information Age Publishing.
90. Silverman, Robert Mark. 2011. "How unwavering is support for the local property tax?: Voting on school district budgets in New York, 2003-2010." Journal of Education Finance no. 36 (3):294- 311. doi: 10.1353/jef.2011.0003.
91. Silverman, Robert Mark. 2014. "Urban, Suburban, and Rural Contexts of School Districts and Neighborhood Revitalization Strategies: Rediscovering Equity in Education Policy and Urban Planning." Leadership and Policy in Schools no. 13 (1):3-27. doi: 10.1080/15700763.2013.876051.
92. Singer, Judith D., and John B. Willett. 2003. Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press.
93. State of Michigan. 2000. School Qualification and Loan Act, Michigan Public Act 290. edited by State of Michigan. Lansing, MI.
94. State of Michigan. 2005. School bond qualification, approval, and loan act of 2005. Lansing, MI: State of Michigan.
95. Steyvers, Mark, and Tom Griffiths. 2007. "Probabilistic topic models." Handbook of latent semantic analysis no. 427 (7):424-440.
96. Sugrue, Thomas J. 1996. The Origins of the Urban Crisis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
97. The Center for Green Schools. 2013. State of our schools report. Washington, DC: The Center for Green Schools.
98. Thompson, David C., Faith E. Crampton, and Craig R. Wood. 2012. Money and Schools. 5 ed. New York, NY: Routledge.
99. Uline, Cynthia L., and Megan Tschannen-Moran. 2008. "The walls speak: the interplay of quality facilities, school climate, and student achievement " Journal of Educational Administration no. 46 (1):55-73.
100. Uline, Cynthia L., Megan Tschannen-Moran, and Thomas DeVere Wosley. 2009. "The walls still speak: the stories occupants tell." Journal of Educational Administration no. 47 (3):400-426.
101. Welsh, William, Erin Coghlan, Bruce Fuller, and Luke Dauter. 2012. New Schools, Overcrowding Relief, and Achievement Gains in Los Angeles - Strong Returns from a $19.5 Billion Investment. Stanford, CA: School of Education, Stanford University.
102. Young, Ed, Harry A. Green, Lynnisse Roehrich-Patrick, Linda Joseph, and Teresa Gibson. 2003. Do K-12 school facilities affect education outcomes? Staff information report. Nashville, TN: Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations.
103. Zimmer, Ron W., Richard Buddin, John T. Jones, and Na Liu. 2011. "What types of school capital projects are voters willing to support?" Public Budgeting & Finance no. 31 (1):37-55. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00973.x.
104. Zimmer, Ron W., and John T. Jones. 2005. "Unintended consequence of centralized public school funding in Michigan education." Southern Economic Journal no. 71 (3):534-544.