Leaders and international conflict

Leaders and International Conflict

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages 1-240

  Chiozza, Giacomo ^a   Goemans, H E ^b  

^a VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84924680524     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511996429     Document Type: Book

References (269)

1. Acemoglu, Daron and James A. Robinson. 2000. “Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115(4):1167-99.
2. Acemoglu, Daron and James A. Robinson. 2001. “A Theory of Political Transitions.” American Economic Review 91(4):938-63.
3. Acemoglu, Daron and James A. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
4. Akins, James E. 1991. “Hooray? The Gulf May not be Calm for Long.” The New York Times p. E17.
5. Albert, James H. and Siddhartha Chib. 1993. “Bayesian Analysis of Binary and Polychotomous Response Data.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88(422):669-79.
6. Alesina, A., S. Ozler, N. Roubini and P. Swagel. 1996. “Political Instability and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 1(2):189- 211.
7. Alesina, Alberto and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
8. Allison, Paul D. 2002. Missing Data. Sage University Papers Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-136. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
9. Alvarez, R. Michael and Tara L. Butterfield. 2000. “The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration.” Social Science Quarterly 81(1):167-79.
10. Aquino, Enrique. 1944. La Personalidad Politica del General Jose Santos Zelaya. Managua, Nicaragua: Impreso en los Talleres Graficos Perez.
11. Atkins, Pope G. and Larman C. Wilson. 1998. The Dominican Republic and the United States: From Imperialism to Transnationalism. Athens, GA: University of Georgia Press.
12. Atwood, Christopher P. 2004. Encyclopedia of Mongolia and the Mongol Empire. New York: Facts on File.
13. Avirgan, Tonay and Martha Honey. 1982. War in Uganda, The Legacy of Idi Amin. Westport, CT: Lawrence Hill & Company.
14. Baker, Bruce. 2004. “Twilight of Impunity for Africa’s Presidential Criminals.” Third World Quarterly 25(8):1487-99.
15. Baker, William D. and John R. Oneal. 2001. “Patriotism or Opinion Leadership? The Nature and Origins of the ‘Rally round the Flag’ Effect.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(5):661-87.
16. Bancroft, Hubert Howe. 1887. The Works of Hubert Howe Bancroft. Vol. III. History of Central America, 1801-1887. San Francisco: The History Company, Publishers.
17. Barbieri, Katherine, Omar Keshk and Brian Pollins. 2008. “Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set.” Codebook, Version 2.0; available at http://correlatesofwar.org.
18. Barbieri, Katherine, Omar Keshk and Brian Pollins. 2009. “TRADING DATA: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(5): 471-91.
19. Barker, Kenneth, ed. 1995. The NIV Study Bible. 10th anniversary edn. Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan Publishing House.
20. Bearak, Barry. 2007. “Mohammad Zahir Shah, Last Afghan King, Dies at 92.” The New York Times 24 July 2007: available at www.nytimes.com/2007/07/24/world/asia/24shah.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=Barry±Bearak&st=nyt.
21. Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz and Richard Tucker. 1998. “Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 42(4):1260-88.
22. Belkin, Aron and Evan Schofer. 2003. “Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(5):594-620.
23. Belkin, Aron and Evan Schofer. 2005. “Coup Risk, Counterbalancing, and International Conflict.” Security Studies 14(1):140-77.
24. Bennett, D. Scott and Allan C. Stam. 2004. The Behavioral Origins of War. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
25. Bienen, Henry and Nicholas van de Walle. 1991. Of Time and Power: Leadership Duration in the Modern World. Stanford, CA, Stanford University Press.
26. Bollen, Kenneth A., David K. Guilkey and Thomas A. Mroz. 1995. “Binary Outcomes and Endogenous Explanatory Variables: Tests and Solutions with an Application to the Demand for Contraceptive Use in Tunisia.” Demography 32(1):111-31.
27. Bound, John, David A. Jaeger and Regina M. Baker. 1995. “Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation when the Correlation between the Instruments and the Endogenous Explanatory Variable is Weak.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(Jun): 443-50.
28. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Bradford S. Jones. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.
29. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Christopher J. W. Zorn. 2001. “Duration Models and Proportional Hazards in Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science 45(4):972-88.
30. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M, Dan Reiter and Christopher J. W. Zorn. 2003. “Nonproportional Hazards and Event History Analysis in International Relations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(1):33-53.
31. Brace, Paul and Barbara Hinckley. 1992. Follow the Leader: The President and Public Opinion Polls. New York: Basic Books.
32. Brecher, Michael and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. 1997. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
33. Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2):309-41.
34. Brewer, Marilynn B. 1999. “Perpetrators of Prejudice; The Psychology of Prejudice: Ingroup Love and Outgroup Hate?” Journal of Social Studies 55(3):429-44.
35. Brownlee, Jason. 2002. “… And Yet They Persist: Explaining Survival and Transition in Neopatrimonial Regimes.” Studies in Comparative International Development 37(3):35-63.
36. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
37. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson and Alastair Smith. 1999. “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 93(4):791-807.
38. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89(4):841-55.
39. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1997. “Nasty or Nice? Political Systems, Endogenous Norms and the Treatment of Adversaries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2):175-99.
40. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Gary. Woller. 1992. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86(4):638-46.
41. Burgess, Paul. 1926. Barrios, Justo Rufino: A Biography. Philadelphia, PA: Dorrance and Company.
42. Burk, Kathleen. 1982. War and the State: The Transformation of British Government 1914-1919. London: Allen & Unwin.
43. Burns, John F. 1996. “At an Afghan Execution: It’s Swift and Personal.” The New York Times 19 December 1996: available at www.nytimes.com/1996/12/19/world/at-an-afghan-execution-it-s-swift-and-personal.html.
44. Bush, George H. W. 1991. “The Gulf War; Bush Statement, Remarks to the American Academy for Advancement of Science.” Financial Times 16 February: Section I; p. 2.
45. Bustamante Maceo, Gregorio. 1951. Historia Militar de El Salvador. 2nd edn. San Salvador, El Salvador: Publicaciones del Ministerio del Interior.
46. Calvino, Italo. 1988. Under the Jaguar Sun. New York: Harcourt Brace & Company.
47. Calvo, Joaquin Bernardo. 1890. The Republic of Costa Rica. (trans. L. de T). Chicago, IL: Rand, McNally & Company.
48. Campos, Alicia. 2003. “The Decolonization of Equatorial Guinea: The Relevance of the International Factor.” Journal of African History 44(1):95-116.
49. Cardoso, Ciro F. S. 1991. The Liberal era, c. 1870-1930. In Central America since Independence, ed. Leslie Bethell. New York: Cambridge University Press, ch. 2, pp. 37-68.
50. Cardoso, Oscar Raul, Ricardo Kirschbaum and Eduardo Van DerKooy. 1987. Falklands, The Secret Plot (trans. Bernard Ethell). Surrey, U.K.: Preston Editions.
51. Carr, Edward Hallett. 1946. The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919-1939. New York: Harper & Row.
52. Carter, David B. and Curtis S. Signorino. 2010. “Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data.” Political Analysis 18(3): 271-92.
53. Chiozza, Giacomo and Ajin Choi. 2003. “Guess Who Did What: Political Leaders and the Management of Territorial Disputes, 1950-1990.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(3):251-78.
54. Chiozza, Giacomo, and H. E. Goemans. 2003. “Peace through Insecurity: Tenure and International Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(4):443-67.
55. Chiozza, Giacomo, and H. E. Goemans. 2004a. “Avoiding Diversionary Targets.” Journal of Peace Research 41(4):423-43.
56. Chiozza, Giacomo, and H. E. Goemans. 2004b. “International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?” American Journal of Political Science 48(3):604-19.
57. Ciano, Galeazzo. 2002. Diary, 1937-1943. New York: Enigma Books.
58. Clapham, John Herald. 1899. The Causes of the War of 1792. London: C. J. Clay and Sons. Available online through Google Books.
59. Clark, David H. 2003. “Can Strategic Interaction Divert Diversionary Behavior? A Model of U.S. Conflict Propensity.” Journal of Politics 65(4):1013-39.
60. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56:563-95.
61. Congdon, Peter. 2006. Bayesian Statistical Modelling. 2nd edn. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
62. Cook, Chris and John Paxton. 1998. European Political Facts, 1900-1996. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
63. Coser, Lewis A. 1956. The Functions of Social Conflict. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
64. Craige, John Houston. 1934. Cannibal Cousins. New York: Minton, Balch & Company.
65. Croco, Sarah E. 2008. Peace at What Price? Domestic Politics, Settlement Costs and War Termination. PhD thesis University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
66. Cruz, Arturo J. 2002. Nicaragua’s Conservative Republic, 1895-93. New York: Palgrave.
67. Dabat, Alejandro and Luis Lorenzano. 1984. Argentina: The Malvinas and the End of Military Rule. London: Verso.
68. Debs, Alexandre and H. E. Goemans. 2010. “Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.” American Political Science Review 104(3): 430-45.
69. Derbyshire, J. Denis and Ian Derbyshire. 1996. Political Systems of the World. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
70. De Rouen, Karl, Jr. 1995. “The Indirect Link: Politics, the Economy, and the Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39(4):671-95.
71. De Rouen, Karl Jr. 2000. “Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note.” International Studies Quarterly 44(2):317-28.
72. DiazLacayo, Aldo. 1996. Gobernantes de Nicaragua (1821-1956). Primera edicion. Managua, Nicaragua: Aldila editor.
73. Diehl, Paul F. 1985. “Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries.” Journal of Politics 47(4):1203-11.
74. Diermeier, Daniel and Randy T. Stevenson. 1999. “Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks.” American Journal of Political Science 43(4):1051-68.
75. Domke, William. 1988. War and the Changing Global System. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
76. Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harpers and Collins.
77. Downs, George and David M. Rocke. 1994. “Conflict, Agency and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War.” American Journal of Political Science 38(2):362-80.
78. Doyle, Michael W. 1983a. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs.” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12(3):205-35. Part I.
79. Doyle, Michael W. 1983b. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs.” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12(4):205-35. Part II.
80. Efron, Bradley and Robert J. Tibshirani. 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
81. El-Gamasy, Mohamed Abdel Ghani. 1993. The October War (trans. Gillian Potter, Nadra Morcos and Rosette Frances). The American University in Cairo Press.
82. Fagg, John Edwin. 1965. Cuba, Haiti & The Dominican Republic. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc.
83. Farcau, Bruce W. 1994. The Coup: Tactics in the Seizure of Power. Westport, CT: Praeger.
84. Farcau, Bruce W. 1996. The Chaco War: Bolivia and Paraguay, 1932-1935. Westport, CT: Praeger.
85. Farcau, Bruce W. 2000. The Ten Cents War: Chile, Peru and Bolivia in the War of the Pacific, 1879-1884. Westport, CT: Praeger.
86. Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(3):379-414.
87. Fearon, James D. 2004. “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?” Journal of Peace Research 41(3):275-301.
88. Feng, Yi. 1997. “Democracy, Political Stability and Economic Growth.” British Journal of Political Science 27(3):391-418.
89. Fordham, Benjamin O. 1998a. “Partisanship, Macroeconomic Policy, and U.S. Uses of Force, 1949-1994.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(4):418-39.
90. Fordham, Benjamin O. 1998b. “The Politics of Threat Perception and the Use of Force: A Political Economy of U.S. Uses of Force, 1949-1994.” International Studies Quarterly 42(3):567-90.
91. Fortna, Virginia Page. 2004. Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
92. Fravel, M. Taylor. 2010. “The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict.” Security Studies 19(2):307-41.
93. Freedman, Lawrence and Efraim Karsh. 1993. The Gulf Conflict 19901991. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
94. Freese, Jeremy and J. Scott Long. 2006. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.
95. Gall, Sandy. 2007. “Mohammad Zahir Shah: The Last King of Afghanistan, a Patriotic but Indecisive Leader.” The Guardian 23 July 2007: available at www.guardian.co.uk/news/2007/jul/23/guardianobituaries.afghanistan.
96. Gamez, Jose Dolores. 1889. Historia de Nicaragua. Managua, Nicaragua: Tipografia de “El Pais”.
97. Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1991. “Election Cycles and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(2):211-44.
98. Gelman, Andrew. 2006. “Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models.” Bayesian Analysis 1(3):515-33.
99. Gelpi, Christopher. 1997. “Democratic Diversions: Government Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2):255-82.
100. Gelpi, Christopher. and Joseph M. Grieco. 2001. “Attracting Trouble: Democracy, Leadership Tenure, and the Targeting of Militarized Challenges.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(6):794-817.
101. Gelpi, Christopher. and Michael Griesdorf. 2001. “Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918-94.” American Political Science Review 95(3):633-47.
102. Gill, Jeff. 2002. Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
103. Gleditsch, Kristian S. 2002. “Expanded Trade and GDP Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(5):712-24.
104. Gleditsch, Kristian S. and Michael D. Ward. 1999. “A Revised List of Independent States since the Congress of Vienna.” International Interactions 25(4):293-413.
105. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, Idean Salehyan and Kenneth A. Schultz. 2008. “Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(4):479-506.
106. Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Havard Hegre. 1997. “Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2):283-310.
107. Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Erikson, Margareta Sollenberg and Haavard Strand. 2002. “Armed Conflict, 1945-99: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39(5):615-37.
108. Goemans, H. E. 2000a. “Fighting for Survival, the Fate of Leaders and the Duration of War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44(5):555-79.
109. Goemans, H. E. 2000b. War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
110. Goemans, H. E. 2006. Territory, Territorial Attachment and Conflict. In Territoriality and Conflict in an Era of Globalization, ed. Miles Kahler and Barbara Walter. New York: Cambridge University Press, ch. 2.
111. Goemans, H. E. 2008. “Which Way Out? The Manner and Consequences of Losing Office.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(6):771-94.
112. Goemans, H. E. and Mark Fey. 2009. “Risky but Rational: War as an Institutionally Induced Gamble.” Journal of Politics 46(2):35-54.
113. Goemans, Henk E., Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Giacomo Chiozza. 2009. “Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders.” Journal of Peace Research 46(2):269-83.
114. Gowa, Joanne. 1998. “Politics at Water’s Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad.” International Organization 52(2):307-24.
115. Greene, William H. 2002. “LIMDEP version 8.0: Econometric Modeling Guide.” Plainview, NY: Econometric Software, Inc. Vol. 1.
116. Grieco, Joseph M. 2001. “Repetitive Military Challenges and Recurrent International Conflicts, 1918-1994.” International Studies Quarterly 45(2):295-316.
117. Guan, Weihua. 2003. “From the Help Desk: Bootstrapped Standard Errors.” Stata Journal 3(1):71-80.
118. Gujarati, Damodar N. 1995. Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
119. Gupta, Dipak K. 1990. The Economics of Political Violence; The Effect of Political Instability on Economic Growth. New York: Praeger.
120. Hagle, Timothy M. and Glenn E. Mitchell. 1992. “Goodness-of-Fit Measures for Probit and Logit.” American Journal of Political Science 36(3):762-84.
121. Hall, Carolyn and Hector Perez Brignoli. 2003. Historical Atlas of Central America. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
122. Harrell, Frank E., Jr. 2001. Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis. New York: Springer.
123. Hastings, Max and Simon Jenkins. 1983. The Battle for the Falklands. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
124. Hausman, Jerry and Daniel McFadden. 1984. “Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model.” Econometrica 52(5):1219-40.
125. Hazelwood, L. 1975. Diversion Mechanisms and Encapsulation Processes: The Domestic Conflict-Foreign Conflict Hypothesis Reconsidered. In Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, ed. P. J. McGowan. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, pp. 213-43.
126. Heinl, Robert Debs and Nancy Gordon Heinl. 1996. Written in Blood: The Story of the Haitian People 1492-1995. Lanham, NJ: University Press of America, Inc. Revised and expanded by Michael Heinl.
127. Heinze, Georg and Daniela Dunkler. 2008. “Avoiding Infinite Estimates of Time-Dependent Effects in Small-Sample Survival Studies.” Statistics in Medicine 27(30):6455-69.
128. Heinze, Georg, and Michael Schemper. 2005. “A Solution to the Problem of Monotone Likelihood in Cox Regression.” Biometrics 57(1):114-19.
129. Hermann, Margaret G and Thomas W. Milburn, ed. 1977. A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
130. Hess, Gregory D. and Athanasios Orphanides. 1995. “War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework.” American Economic Review 85(4):828-46.
131. Hobbes, Thomas. 1996 [1651]. Leviathan. New York: Oxford University Press.
132. Horowitz, Michael, Rose McDermott and Allan C. Stam. 2005. “Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(5):661-85.
133. Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
134. Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
135. International Crisis Behavior Project. 2007. “ICB Version 7.0 (19182004).” Online, www.cidcm.umd.edu/icb/.
136. Jagger, Keith and Ted Robert Gurr. 1995. “Tracking Democracy’s Third Wave with the Polity III Data.” Journal of Peace Research 32(4):469-82.
137. James, Laura. 2005. “Nasser and his Enemies: Foreign Policy Decision Making in Egypt on the Eve of the Six Day War.” Middle East Review of International Studies 9(2):23-44.
138. James, Patrick and Athanasios Hristoulas. 1994. “Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy: Evaluating a Model of Crisis Activity for the United States.” Journal of Politics 56(2):327-48.
139. James, Patrick, and Jean Sebastien Rioux. 1998. “International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953-1994.” Political Research Quarterly 51(3):781-812.
140. Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
141. Jervis, Robert. 2002. “Theories of War in an Era of Leading-Power Peace.” American Political Science Review 96(1):1-14.
142. Johns, Leslie. 2006. “Knowing the Unknown.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(2):228-52.
143. Johnson, Dominic D. P. and Dominic Tierney. 2006. Failing to Win: Perceptions of Victory and Defeat in International Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
144. Jones, Seth G. 2009. In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Afghanistan. New York: W.W. Norton.
145. Kaldor, Mary. 1999. New & Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Malden, MA: Polity Press.
146. Kamau, Joseph and Andrew Cameron. 1979. Lust to Kill: The Rise and Fall of Idi Amin. London: Corgi Books.
147. Karnes, Thomas L. 1961. The Failure of Union: Central America, 1824-1960. Chapel Hill, NC: The University of North Carolina Press.
148. King, Gary, James Honaker, Anne Joseph and Kenneth Scheve. 2001. “Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation.” American Political Science Review 95(1): 49-69.
149. Kuran, Timur. 1991. “Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989.” World Politics 44(1):7-48.
150. Labianca, Giuseppe, Daniel J. Brass and Barbara Gray. 1998. “Social Networks and Perceptions of Intergroup Conflict: The Role of Negative Relationships and Third Parties.” The Academy of Management Journal 41(1):55-67.
151. Lai, Brian and D. Reiter. 2005. “Rally’round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948-2001.” International Studies Quarterly 49(2):255-72.
152. Lavalle, Jose Antonio de. 1979. Mi mission en Chile en 1879. Lima: Instituto de Estudios Historico-Maritimos del Peru.
153. Lebow, Richard Ned. 1981. Between Peace and War. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
154. Lebow, Richard Ned. 1985. Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falk- lands War. In Psychology and Deterrence, ed. Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, ch. 5, pp. 89-124.
155. Leeds, Brett Ashley and David R. Davis. 1997. “Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(6):814-34.
156. Leites, Nathan. 1951. The Operational Code of the Politburo. New York: McGraw-Hill.
157. Lentz, Harris M. 1994. Heads of States and Governments: A Worldwide Encyclopedia of Over 2,300 Leaders, 1945 through 1992. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.
158. Lentz, Harris M. 1999. Encyclopedia of Heads of States and Governments, 1900 through 1945. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.
159. Levy, Jack S. 1989. The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique. In Handbook of War Studies, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 259-88.
160. Levy, Jack S. and Lily I. Vakili. 1992. Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case. In The Internationalization of Communal Strife, ed. Manus Midlarsky. New York: Routledge, ch. 6, pp. 118-46.
161. Li, Kim-Hung, Xiao-Li Meng, T. E. Raghunathan and Donald B. Rubin. 1991. “Significance Levels from Repeated p-Values with Multiply- Imputed Data.” Statistica Sinica 1(1):65-92.
162. Lian, Bradley and John R. Oneal. 1993. “Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(2):277-300.
163. Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.” American Political Science Review 53:60-105.
164. Logan, Rayford W. 1968. Haiti and the Dominican Republic. New York: Oxford University Press.
165. Londregan, John B. and Keith T. Poole. 1990. “Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power.” World Politics 42(2):151-83.
166. Maddala, G. S. 1983. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
167. Makin, Guillermo. 1985. Argentina: The Authoritarian Impasse. In The Political Dilemmas of Military Regimes, ed. Christopher Clapham and George Philip. London: Croom Helm, ch. 7.
168. Makiya, Kanan. 1993. Cruelty and Silence: War, Tyranny, Uprising, and the Arab World. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
169. Malanczuk, Peter. 1991. “The Kurdish Crisis and Allied Intervention in the Aftermath of the Second Gulf War.” European Journal of International Law 2(1):114-33.
170. Mallar, Charles D. 1977. “The Estimation of Simultaneous Probability Models.” Econometrica 45(7):5-39.
171. Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder. 1995. “Democratization and the Danger of War.” International Security. 20(1):5-39.
172. Mansfield, Edward D and Jack Snyder. 2005. Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
173. Marra, Robin F., Charles W. Ostrom Jr. and Dennis M. Simon. 1990. “Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity: Creating Windows of Opportunity in the Perpetual Election.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34(4):588-623.
174. Marure, Alejandro. 1895. Efemerides de los Hechos Notables Acaecidos en la Republica de Centro America. Guatemala.
175. Matibag, Eugenio. 2003. Haitian-Dominican Counterpoint; Nation, State, and Race on Hispaniola. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
176. McGillivray, Fiona and Alastair Smith. 2000. “Trust and Cooperation through Agent Specific Punishments.” International Organization 54(4):809-24.
177. Meernik, James. 1994. “Presidential Decision-Making and the Political Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 38(1):121-38.
178. Meernik, James. and Peter Waterman. 1996. “The Myth of the Diversionary Use of Force by American Presidents.” Political Research Quarterly 49(3):573-90.
179. Miller, Ross A. 1995. “Domestic Structures and the Diversionary Use of Force.” American Journal of Political Science 39(3):760-85.
180. Miller, Ross A. 1999. “Regime Type, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(3):388-402.
181. MontUfar, Lorenzo. 1887. ResePa Historica. Centro-America. Guatemala: Tipografia “La Union”. Tomo Sexto.
182. Mooney, Christopher Z. and Robert D. Duval. 1993. Bootstrapping: A Nonparametric Approach to Statistical Inference. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
183. Mor, Ben D. 1991. “Nasser’s Decision-Making in the 1967 Middle East Crisis: A Rational Choice Explanation.” Journal of Peace Research 28(4):359-75.
184. Morgan, Clifton T. and Christopher J. Anderson. 1999. “Domestic Support and Diversionary External Conflict in Great Britain, 1950-1992.” Journal of Politics 61(3):799-814.
185. Morgan, T. Clifton and Kenneth N. Bickers. 1992. “Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(1):25-52.
186. Morrow, James D., Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Alastair Smith. 2008. “Retesting Selectorate Theory: Separating the Effects of W from Other Elements of Democracy.” American Political Science Review 102(3):393-400.
187. Mueller, John. 2004. The Remnants of War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
188. Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.
189. Oakes, Amy. 2006. “Diversionary War and Argentina’s Invasion of the Falkland Islands.” Security Studies 15(3):431-63.
190. O’Kane, Rosemary H. T. 1983. “Towards and Examination of the General Causes of Coups d’Etat.” European Journal of Political Research 11:27-44.
191. O’Kane, Rosemary H. T. 1993. “Coups d’Etat in Africa: A Political Economy Approach.” Journal of Peace Research 30(3):251-70.
192. Oliver, Christian. 2010. “North Korea: Drastic Dynastics.” Financial Times 6 July 2010. Available at www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0451e8a-892f- 11df-8ecd-00144feab49a.html.
193. Omara-Otunnu, Amii. 1987. Politics and the Military in Uganda, 18901985. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
194. Oneal, John R. and Anna Lillian Bryan. 1995. “The ‘Rally’round the Flag’ Effect in U. S. Foreign Policy Crises, 1950-1985.” Political Behavior 17(4):370-401.
195. Oneal, John R. and Jaroslav Tir. 2006. “Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921-2001.” International Studies Quarterly 50(4):755-79.
196. Ostrom, Charles W. and Brian L. Job. 1986. “The President and the Political Uses of Force.” American Political Science Review 80(2):541-66.
197. Palmer, Frederick. 1910. Central America and Its Problems. New York: Moffat, Yard & Company.
198. Parker, Franklin D. 1964. The Central American Republics. New York: Oxford University Press.
199. Person, Roberto and Guido Tabellini. 1994. “Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence.” American Economic Review 84(3):600-21.
200. Pinto, Anibal. 1921 and 1922. “Apuntes.” Revista Chilena. No. 13: 337-73; No. 14: 112-26.
201. Pion-Berlin, David. 1985. “The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina: 19761983.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 27(2):55-76.
202. Plummer, Brenda Gayle. 1988. Haiti and the Great Powers, 1902-1915. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University Press.
203. Polity IV Project. 2004. “Polity IV Dataset, version p4v2004d.” Center for Global Policy, School of Public Policy, George Mason University and Center for Systemic Peace, available at www.systemicpeace.org/polity4.
204. Popper, Karl R. 1963. The Open Society and its Enemies. New York: Routledge.
205. Powell, Robert. 2006. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60(1):169-203.
206. Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market. New York: Cambridge University Press.
207. Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. New York: Cambridge University Press.
208. Quindlen, Anna. 1991. “The Microwave War.” The New York Times p. E17.
209. Ramiro, Colindres. 1989. Breve Historia de Honduras 1831-1876. Tegucigalpa, Honduras: Graficentro Editores.
210. Ray, James Lee. 1995. Democracy and International Conflict: An Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press.
211. Ray, James Lee. 2001. “Intergrating Levels of Analysis in World Politics.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 13(4):355-88.
212. Ray, James Lee. 2003. “Explaining Interstate Conflict and War: What Should be Controlled For?” Conflict Management and Peace Science 20(2): 1-31.
213. Record, Jeffrey. 2002. “Collapsed Countries, Casualty Dread, and the New American Way of War.” Parameters 32(2):4-23.
214. Reiter, Dan and Allan C. Stam. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
215. Reiter, Dan and Allan C. Stam III. 1998. “Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory.” American Political Science Review 92(2):377-90.
216. Rendon, Mary Catherine. 1988. Manuel Estrada Cabrera; Guatemalan President 1898-1920. Ph.D thesis Merton College, University of Oxford, England.
217. Richards, Diana, T. Clifton Morgan, Rick K. Wilson, Valerie L. Schwe-bach and Garry D. Young. 1993. “Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(3): 504-36.
218. Riker, William H. 1982. Liberalism Against Populism. Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland Press, Inc.
219. Rikhye, Indar Jit. 1978. The Sinai Blunder: Withdrawal of the United Nations Emergency Force Leading to the Six Day War June, 1967. New Delhi: Oxford & Ibh Publishing Co.
220. Rodman, Selden. 1964. Quisqueya; A History of the Dominican Republic. Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press.
221. Rodriguez, Mario. 1964. A Palmerstonian Diplomat in Central America. Tucson, AZ: The University of Arizona Press.
222. Rodriguez, Mario. 1965. Central America. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc.
223. Rosenau, James. 1966. Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy. In Approaches to Comparative and International Politics, ed. R. Barry Farrell. Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, pp. 29-92.
224. Rothenberg, Gunther E. 2007. The Origins, Causes and Extensions of the Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon. In Warfare in Europe, 1792-1815, ed. Frederick C. Schneid. The International Library of Essays on Military History. Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing Company, ch. 3.
225. Rubin, Donald B. 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. New York: Wiley.
226. Rubin, Donald B. and Nathaniel Schenker. 1991. “Multiple Imputation in Health-Care Databases: An Overview and Some Applications.” Statistics in Medicine 10(4):585-98.
227. Rubinstein, Alvin Z. 1977. Red Star on the Nile. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
228. Russett, Bruce. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a PostCold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
229. Sarkees, Meredith Reid. 2000. “The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 18(1):123-44. www.correlatesofwar.org/.
230. Sater, William F. 1986. Chile and the War of the Pacific. Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press.
231. Schafer, Joseph L. 1997. Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data. New York: Chapman & Hall.
232. Scheina, Robert L. 2003. Latin America’s Wars (2 vols). Vol. I. Washington, DC: Brassey’s Inc.
233. Schoonover, Thomas D. 1991. The United States in Central America, 18691911. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
234. Schroeder, Paul W. 1994. The Transformation of European Politics. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
235. Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001a. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
236. Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001b. “Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(1):32-60.
237. Schweller, Randall. 1998. Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest. New York: Columbia University Press.
238. Simmel, Georg. 1898. “The Persistence of Social Groups.” American Journal of Sociology 3(5):662-98.
239. Simmel, Georg. 1955. Conflict (trans. Kurt H. Wolff). Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
240. Singer, J. David. 1961. “The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations.” World Politics 14(1):77-92.
241. Slantchev, Branislav L. 2004. “How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare and the Terms of Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 48(4):813-29.
242. Smith, Alastair. 1996. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 40(1):133-53.
243. Smith, Alastair. 1998. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92(3):623-38.
244. Smith, George Ivan. 1980. Ghosts of Kampala. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
245. Snyder, Richard Carlton, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds. 1962. Foreign Policy Decision-Making: An Approach to the Study of International Politics. New York: Free Press of Glencoe.
246. Stinett, Douglas M., Jaroslav Tir, Philip Schafer, Paul F. Diehl and Charles Gochman. 2002. “The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 19(2):67-88.
247. Stoll, Richard J. 1984. “The Guns of November: Presidential Reelections and the Use of Force, 1947-1982.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28(2):231-46.
248. Subercaseaux, Ramon. 1936. Memorias de Ochenta APos. Vol. 2. Volumes Santiago: Nascimento.
249. Tarar, Ahmer. 2006. “Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War.” International Studies Quarterly 50(1):169-88.
250. Thant, U. 1978. View from the UN. Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Company, Inc. Appendix D, General Rikhye’s Minutes of the Meeting of May 24, 1967, between the Foreign Minister of the U. A. R. and the Secretary General.
251. Therneau, Terry M. and Patricia M. Grambsch. 2000. Modeling Survival Data: Extending the Cox Model. New York: Springer.
252. Thornton, Richard C. 1998. The Falklands Sting: Reagan, Thatcher, and Argentina’s Bomb. Washington, DC: Brassey’s.
253. Thucydides. 1972. History of the Peloponnesian War (trans. Rex Warner). Rev. edn. London: Penguin Books.
254. Tullock, Gordon. 1987. Autocracy. Boston, MA: Kluwer.
255. Valenzuela, Jose Reina. 1984. Jose Trinidad Cabanas, Estudio Biogrdfico. Tegucigalpa.
256. Vallecillos, Italo Lopez. 1967. Gerardo Barrios y su Tiempo. Vol. II. San Salvador, El Salvador: Ministerio de Educacion, Dereccion General de Publicaciones.
257. Wagner, R. Harrison. 2007. War and the State: The Theory of International Politics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
258. Walt, Stephen M. 1997. Revolution and War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
259. Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
260. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1954. Man, the State, and War. New York: Columbia University Press.
261. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw Hill.
262. Welles, Sumner. 1928. Naboth’s Vineyard: the Dominican Republic 18441924. Vol. 2. New York: Payson & Clarke Ltd.
263. WGBH. 2007. “Six Days in June, The War that Redefined the Middle East.” A WGBH production in co-production with Instinct Films, Canada, Point du Jour, France, and Alma Films, Israel. ISBN No. 978-1593757-84-7. Ilan Ziv, Director, Zvi Dor-Ner, Producer.
264. Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 1968. “Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations.” Journal of Peace Research 5(1):56-69.
265. Windmeijer, Frank A. 1995. “Goodness-of-Fit Measures in Binary Choice Models.” Econometric Reviews 14(1):101-16.
266. Wolfers, Arnold. 1962. Discord and Collaboration. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press.
267. Woodward, Ralph Lee. 1993. Rafael Carrera and the Emergence of the Republic of Guatemala, 1821-1871. Athens, GA: The University of Georgia Press.
268. Zinnes, Dina A. and J. Wilkenfeld. 1971. An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations. In Comparative Foreign Policy, ed. W. F. Han- rieder. New York: David McKay.
269. Zorn, Christopher. 2005. “A Solution to Separation in Binary Response Models.” Political Analysis 13(2):157-70.