Avoiding diversionary targets

Journal of Peace Research

Volumn 41, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 423-443

  Chiozza, Giacomo ^a   Goemans, Henk E ^b  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 3042811454     PISSN: 00223433     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0022343304044475     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Alesina, Alberto & Howard Rosenthal, 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2. Baker, William D. & John R. Oneal, 2001. 'Patriotism or Opinion Leadership? The Nature and Origins of the "Rally 'round the Flag" Effect', Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(5): 661-687.
3. Barbieri, Katherine, 2002. The Liberal Illusion: Does Trade Promote Peace? Ann Arbor: MI: University of Michigan Press.
4. Beck, Nathaniel; Jonathan N. Katz & Richard Tucker, 1998. 'Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable', American Journal of Political Science 42(4): 1260-1288.
5. Bennett, D. Scott & Allan C. Stam, 2000. 'EUGene: A Conceptual Manual', International Interactions 26(2): 179-204.
6. Bienen, Henry & Nicholas van de Walle, 1991. Of Time and Power: Leadership Duration in the Modern World. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
7. Bollen, Kenneth A., 1979. 'Political Democracy and the Timing of Development', American Sociological Review 44(4): 572-587.
8. Bollen, Kenneth A.; David K. Guilkey & Thomas A. Mroz, 1995. 'Binary Outcomes and Endogenous Explanatory Variables: Tests and Solutions with an Application to the Demand for Contraceptive Use in Tunisia', Demography 32(1): 111-131.
9. Bound, John; David A. Jaeger & Regina M. Baker, 1995. 'Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation When the Correlation between the Instruments and the Endogenous Explanatory Variable Is Weak', Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 (June): 443-450.
10. Brecher, Michael & Jonathan Wilkenfeld, 1997. A Study of Crisis, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
11. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce; James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson & Alastair Smith, 1999. 'An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace', American Political Science Review 93(4): 791-807.
12. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce & Randolph M. Siverson, 1995. 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review 89(4): 841-855.
13. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce; Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson & James D. Morrow, 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
14. Chiozza, Giacomo & H. E. Goemans, 2003. 'Peace Through Insecurity: The Reciprocal Relation Between Tenure and International Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(4): 443-467.
15. Chiozza, Giacomo & H. E. Goemans, 2004. 'International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?', American Journal of Political Science 48(3): 604-619.
16. Clark, David H., 2003. 'Can Strategic Interaction Divert Diversionary Behavior? A Model of U.S. Conflict Propensity', Journal of Politics 65(4): 1013-1039.
17. Cook, Chris & John Paxton, 1998. European Political Facts, 1900-1996. New York: St. Martin's.
18. Correlates of War 2 Project, 2003. 'State System Membership List, v2002.1' (http://cow2.la. psu.edu).
19. Coser, Lewis A., 1956. The Functions of Social Conflict. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
20. Davidson, Russell & James G. MacKinnon, 1993. Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
21. Derbyshire, J. Denis & Ian Derbyshire, 1996. Political Systems of the World. New York: St. Martin's.
22. DeRouen, Karl R. Jr., 1995. 'The Indirect Link: Politics, the Economy, and the Use of Force', Journal of Conflict Resolution 39(4): 671-695.
23. DeRouen, Karl Jr., 2000. 'Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note', International Studies Quarterly 44(2): 317-328.
24. Diehl, Paul F., 1985. 'Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries, 1816-1980', Journal of Politics 47(4): 1203-1211.
25. Downs, George & David M. Rocke, 1994. 'Conflict, Agency and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War', American Journal of Political Science 38(2): 362-380.
26. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. 'A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables', Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16(2): 198-205.
27. Fearon, James D., 1995. 'Rationalist Explanations for War', International Organization 49(3): 379-414.
28. Fearon, James D. & David D. Laitin, 2003. 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97(1): 75-90.
29. Gartzke, Erik, 1999. 'War Is in the Error Term', International Organization 53(3): 567-587.
30. Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor, 1991. 'Election Cycles and War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(2): 211-244.
31. Geller, Daniel S. & J. David Singer, 1998. Nations at War. A Scientific Study of International Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
32. Gelpi, Christopher, 1997. 'Democratic Diversions: Government Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2): 255-282.
33. Gelpi, Christopher & Joseph M. Grieco, 2001. 'Attracting Trouble: Democracy, Leadership Tenure, and the Targeting of Militarized Challenges', Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(6): 794-817.
34. Gelpi, Christopher & Michael Griesdorf, 2001. 'Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918-94', American Political Science Review 95(3): 633-647.
35. Gleditsch, Kristian S., 2002. 'Expanded Trade and GDP Data', Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(5): 712-724.
36. Gleditsch, Kristian S., 2003. 'Transnational Dimensions of Civil War', typescript, University of California, San Diego, May (http://weber.ucsd.edu/- kgledits/papers/transnational.pdf).
37. Goemans, H. E., 2000. War and Punishment; The Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
38. Greene, William H., 2002. LIMDEP Version 8.0: Econometric Modeling Guide, Vol. 1. Plainview, NY: Econometric Software.
39. Gujarati, Damodar N., 1995. Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
40. Jaggers, Keith & Ted Robert Gurr, 1995. 'Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data', Journal of Peace Research 32(4): 469-482.
41. King, Gary, 1991. ' "Truth" Is Stranger than Prediction, More Questionable than Causal Inference', American Journal of Political Science 35(4): 1047-1053.
42. Leeds, Brett Ashley & David R. Davis, 1997. 'Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes', Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(6): 814-834.
43. Lentz, Harris M., 1994. Heads of States and Governments: A Worldwide Encyclopedia of over 2,300 Leaders, 1945 through 1992. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.
44. Lentz, Harris M., 1999. Encyclopedia of Heads of States and Governments, 1900 through 1945. Jefierson, NC: McFarland.
45. Levy, Jack S., 1989. 'The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique', in Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of 'War Studies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press (259-288).
46. McFadden, Daniel L, 1974. 'Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior', in Paul Zarembka, ed., Frontiers in Econometrics. New York: Academic Press (105-142).
47. McKelvey, Richard D. & William Zavoina, 1975. A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Ordinal Level Dependent Variables', Journal of Mathematicat Sociology 4(1): 103-120.
48. Maddala, G. S., 1983. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
49. Mallar, Charles D., 1977. 'The Estimation of Simultaneous Probability Models', Econometrica 45(7): 1717-1722.
50. Mansfield, Edward D. & Jack Snyder, 1995. 'Democratization and the Danger of War', International Security 20(1): 5-39.
51. Mercer, Jonathan, 1995. 'Anarchy and Identity', International Organization 49(2): 229-252.
52. Midlarsky, Manus I., 1974. 'Power, Uncertainty, and the Onset of International Violence', Journal of Conflict Resolution 18(3): 395-431.
53. Miller, Ross A., 1995. 'Domestic Structures and the Diversionary Use of Force', American Journal of Political Science 39(3): 760-785.
54. Miller, Ross A., 1999. 'Regime Type, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Use of Force', Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(3): 388-402.
55. Mitchell, B. R., 1998a. International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia & Oceania, 1750-1993. London: Macmillan.
56. Mitchell, B. R., 1998b. International Historical Statistics: The Americas, 1750-1993. London: Macmillan.
57. Mitchell, B. R., 1998c. International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750-1993. London: Macmillan.
58. Mueller, John E., 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.
59. Polity IV Project, 2000. 'Polity IV Dataset' (computer file, version p4v2000). College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland.
60. Przeworski, Adam; Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub & Fernando Limongi, 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
61. Ray, James Lee, 2003. 'Explaining Interstate Conflict and War: What Should Be Controlled For?', Conflict Management and Peace Science 20(1): 1-31.
62. Richards, Diana; Rick Wilson, Valerie Schwebach & Garry Young, 1993. 'Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force', Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(3): 504-536.
63. Russett, Bruce & John R. Oneal, 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, New York: Norton.
64. Sarkees, Meredith Reid, 2000. 'The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997', Conflict Management and Peace Science 18(1): 123-144.
65. Simmel, Georg, 1898. 'The Persistence of Social Groups', American Journal of Sociology 3(5): 662-698.
66. Smith, Alastair, 1996. 'Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems', International Studies Quarterly 40(1): 133-153.
67. Stinnett, Douglas M.; Jaroslav Tir, Philip Schafer, Paul F. Diehl & Charles Gochman, 2002. 'The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3', Conflict Management and Peace Science 19(2): 58-66.
68. Tarar, Ahmer, 2003. 'A Formal Analysis of Diversionary War Incentives', typescript, Texas A & M University (http://www-polisci.tamu.edu/faculty/ byname/?id = 35).
69. Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, 1968. 'Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations', Journal of Peace Research 5(1): 56-69.
70. Zinnes, Dina A. & Jonathan Wilkenfeld, 1971. An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations', in Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed., Comparative Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. New York: David McKay (167-214).