Climate change in our backyards: The reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Global Change Biology

Volumn 21, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 572-585

  Princé, Karine ^a   Zuckerberg, Benjamin ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

Author keywords

Avian ecology; Citizen science; Climate change; Community temperature index; Project FeederWatch; Winter warming

Indexed keywords

BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; OVERWINTERING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; WARMING;

NORTH AMERICA;

AVES;

ADAPTATION; ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; BIRD; CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; MEXICO; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASON; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; TIME FACTOR; UNITED STATES;

ADAPTATION, PHYSIOLOGICAL; ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; MEXICO; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TIME FACTORS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84923251416     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12740     Document Type: Article

References (90)

1. Ashton KG (2002) Patterns of within-species body size variation of birds: strong evidence for Bergmann's rule. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 505-523.
2. Ashton KG, Tracy MC, Queiroz AD (2000) Is Bergmann's rule valid for mammals? The American Naturalist, 156, 390-415.
3. Barnagaud J-Y, Barbaro L, Hampe A, Jiguet F, Archaux F (2013) Species' thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients. Ecography, 36, 1218-1226.
4. Berner TO, Grubb TC Jr. (1985) An experimental analysis of mixed-species flocking in birds of deciduous woodland. Ecology, 66, 1229-1236.
5. Bivand RS, Pebesma E, Gómez-Rubio V (2013) Applied Spatial Data Analysis With R. Springer, New York.
6. Bonter DN, Zuckerberg B, Dickinson JL (2010) Invasive birds in a novel landscape: habitat associations and effects on established species. Ecography, 33, 494-502.
7. Both C, Artemyev AV, Blaauw B et al. (2004) Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 271, 1657-1662.
8. Both C, Van Turnhout CAM, Bijlsma RG, Siepel H, Van Strien AJ, Foppen RPB (2010) Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 277, 1259-1266.
9. Brittingham MC, Temple SA (1988) Impacts of supplemental feeding on survival rates of black-capped chickadees. Ecology, 69, 581-589.
10. Brown RD, Robinson DA (2011) Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922-2010 including an assessment of uncertainty. The Cryosphere, 5, 219-229.
11. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. Springer-Verlag, New-York, USA.
12. Butler CJ (2003) The disproportionate effect of global warming on the arrival dates of short-distance migratory birds in North America. Ibis, 145, 484-495.
13. Cahill AE, Aiello-Lammens ME, Caitlin Fisher-Reid M et al. (2014) Causes of warm-edge range limits: systematic review, proximate factors and implications for climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 41, 429-442.
14. Callaghan TV, Johansson M, Brown RD et al. (2011) The changing face of arctic snow cover: a synthesis of observed and projected changes. Ambio, 40, 17-31.
15. Choi G, Robinson DA, Kang S (2010) Changing Northern Hemisphere snow seasons. Journal of Climate, 23, 5305-5310.
16. Cohen JL, Furtado JC, Barlow M, Alexeev VA, Cherry JE (2012) Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L04705.
17. Cooper CB, Hochachka WM, Dhondt AA (2007) Contrasting natural experiments confirm competition between house finches and house sparrows. Ecology, 88, 864-870.
18. Crawley MJ (2007) The R Book. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK.
19. Crowley PH (1992) Resampling methods for computation-intensive data analysis in ecology and evolution. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 23, 405-447.
20. Devictor V, Julliard R, Couvet D, Jiguet F (2008) Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275, 2743-2748.
21. Devictor V, Van Swaay C, Brereton T et al. (2012) Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nature Climate Change, 2, 121-124.
22. Dunning JBJ (2008) CRC Handbook of Avian Body Masses. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
23. Godet L, Jaffre M, Devictor V (2011) Waders in winter: long-term changes of migratory bird assemblages facing climate change. Biology Letters, 7, 714-717.
24. Greenberg R (2000) Birds of many feathers: the formation and structure of mixed-species flocks of forest birds. In: On the Move: How and Why Animals Travel in Groups (eds Boinski S, Garber P), pp. 521-558. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Ill, USA.
25. Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Journal of Climate, 18, 1326-1350.
26. Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M et al. (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM), pp. 159-254. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
27. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
28. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM), pp. 3-29. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
29. Jenkins DG, Brescacin CR, Duxbury CV et al. (2007) Does size matter for dispersal distance? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 415-425.
30. Jiguet F, Devictor V, Ottvall R, Van Turnhout C, Van Der Jeugd H, Lindstrom A (2010) Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 277, 3601-3608.
31. Johnson JB, Omland KS (2004) Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 19, 101-108.
32. Kampichler C, Van Turnhout CAM, Devictor V, Van Der Jeugd HP (2012) Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals. PLoS ONE, 7, e35272.
33. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 11823-11826.
34. Kissling WD, Field R, Korntheuer H, Heyder U, Böhning-Gaese K (2010) Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2035-2045.
35. Kunkel KE, Liang X-Z, Zhu J, Lin Y (2006) Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth-century 'Warming Hole' in the Central United States? Journal of Climate, 19, 4137-4153.
36. La Sorte FA, Jetz W (2012) Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81, 914-925.
37. La Sorte FA, Thompson FR (2007) Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds. Ecology, 88, 1803-1812.
38. La Sorte FA, Lee TM, Wilman H, Jetz W (2009) Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 3167-3174.
39. Lindström Å, Green M, Paulson G, Smith HG, Devictor V (2013) Rapid changes in bird community composition at multiple temporal and spatial scales in response to recent climate change. Ecography, 36, 313-322.
40. Liston GE, Hiemstra CA (2011) The changing cryosphere: pan-arctic snow trends (1979-2009). Journal of Climate, 24, 5691-5712.
41. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052-U1111.
42. Macarthur RH (1984) Geographical Ecology: Patterns in the Distribution of Species. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
43. Manly BFJ (2006) Randomization, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Biology. Chapman and Hall/CRC, London.
44. Mayr E (1956) Geographical character gradients and climatic adaptation. Evolution, 10, 105-108.
45. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al. (2007) Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller ), pp. 747-845. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
46. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Branstator G (2012) Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. East-West differential of heat extremes. Journal of Climate, 25, 6394-6408.
47. Millien V, Kathleen Lyons S, Olson L, Smith FA, Wilson AB, Yom-Tov Y (2006) Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules. Ecology Letters, 9, 853-869.
48. Morse DH (1970) Ecological aspects of some mixed-species foraging flocks of birds. Ecological Monographs, 40, 119-168.
49. Morse DH (1977) Feeding behavior and predator avoidance in heterospecific groups. BioScience, 27, 332-339.
50. Newton I (1998) Chapter 11 - Weather. In: Population Limitation in Birds (ed Newton I), pp. 287-317. Academic Press, London.
51. Niven DK, Butcher GS, Bancroft GT (2009) Northward shifts in early winter abundance. American Birds, 63, 10-15.
52. Pan Z, Arritt RW, Takle ES, Gutowski WJ, Anderson CJ, Segal M (2004) Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a 'warming hole'. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L17109.
53. Paradis E, Claude J (2002) Analysis of comparative data using generalized estimating equations. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 218, 175-185.
54. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 637-669.
55. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
56. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C et al. (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature, 399, 579-583.
57. Pearce-Higgins JW, Dennis P, Whittingham MJ, Yalden DW (2010) Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range. Global Change Biology, 16, 12-23.
58. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
59. Peterjohn BG, Sauer Jr. (1993) North american breeding bird survey annual summary 1990-1991. Bird Populations, 1, 52-67.
60. Pinheiro J, Bates D, Saikat D, Sarkar D (2007) nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R Package Version, 3, 1.
61. Post E (2013) Ecology of Climate Change: The Importance of Biotic Interactions. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
62. R Development Core Team (2013) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
63. Ramirez L, Diniz-Filho JAF, Hawkins BA (2008) Partitioning phylogenetic and adaptive components of the geographical body-size pattern of new world birds. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 100-110.
64. Rodenhouse NL, Christenson LM, Parry D, Green LE (2009) Climate change effects on native fauna of northeastern forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere, 39, 249-263.
65. Root TL (1988a) Environmental-factors associated with avian distributional boundaries. Journal of Biogeography, 15, 489-505.
66. Root TL (1988b) Energy constraints on avian distributions and abundances. Ecology, 69, 330-339.
67. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60.
68. Schielzeth OH, Forstmeier W (2009) Conclusions beyond support: overconfident estimates in mixed models. Behavioral Ecology, 20, 416-420.
69. Sibly RM, Brown JH, Kodric-Brown A (2012) Metabolic Ecology: A Scaling Approach. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
70. Thomas CD (2010) Climate, climate change and range boundaries. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 488-495.
71. Tingley MW, Beissinger SR (2013) Cryptic loss of montane avian richness and high community turnover over 100 years. Ecology, 94, 598-609.
72. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 19637-19643.
73. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2013) An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth's Future, 1, 19-32.
74. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2011) National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation. National Overview. US Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, USA.
75. Valiela I, Bowen JL (2003) Shifts in winter distribution in birds: effects of global warming and local habitat change. Ambio, 32, 476-480.
76. Van Buskirk J, Mulvihill RS, Leberman RC (2010) Declining body sizes in North American birds associated with climate change. Oikos, 119, 1047-1055.
77. Van Swaay CAM, Harpke A, Van Strien A et al. (2010) The Impact of Climate Change on Butterfly Communities 1990-2009. Butterfly Conservation Europe & De Vlinderstichting, Wageningen.
78. Vedder O, Bouwhuis S, Sheldon BC (2013) Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations. PLoS Biology, 11, e1001605.
79. Visser ME, Both C (2005) Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 272, 2561-2569.
80. Wells JV, Rosenberg KV, Dunn EH, Tessaglia-Hymes DL, Dhondt AA (1998) Feeder counts as indicators of spatial and temporal variation in winter abundance of resident birds. Journal of Field Ornithology, 69, 577-586.
81. Williams JW, Jackson ST (2007) Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5, 475-482.
82. Williams CM, Henry HAL, Sinclair BJ (2014) Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change. Biological Reviews, in press. doi: 10.1111/brv.12105.
83. Wilson RJ, Gutiérrez D, Gutiérrez J, Martínez D, Agudo R, Monserrat VJ (2005) Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecology Letters, 8, 1138-1146.
84. Wootton JT (1987) Interspecific competition between introduced house finch populations and two associated passerine species. Oecologia, 71, 325-331.
85. Wootton JT (1996) Purple finch (Haemorhous purpureus). In: The Birds of North America Online, No. 208 (eds. Poole A, Gill G) Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY.
86. Zuckerberg B, Porter WF, Corwin K (2009a) The consistency and stability of abundance-occupancy relationships in large-scale population dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology, 78, 172-181.
87. Zuckerberg B, Woods AM, Porter WF (2009b) Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State. Global Change Biology, 15, 1866-1883.
88. Zuckerberg B, Bonter DN, Hochachka WM, Koenig WD, Degaetano AT, Dickinson JL (2011) Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather. Journal of Animal Ecology, 80, 403-413.
89. Zuckerberg B, Desrochers A, Hochachka WM, Fink D, Koenig WD, Dickinson JL (2012) Overlapping landscapes: a persistent, but misdirected concern when collecting and analyzing ecological data. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 76, 1072-1080.
90. Zuur A, Ieno EN, Walker N, Saveliev AA, Smith GM (2009) Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology With R. Springer, New York.