Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State

Global Change Biology

Volumn 15, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 1866-1883

  Zuckerberg, Benjamin ^a,c   Woods, Anne M ^b   Porter, William F ^a  

^a STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b Adirondack Ecological Center   (United States)

^c Fuller Evolutionary Biology Program   (United States)

Author keywords

Bird atlas; Bird distributions; Climate change; Elevational shifts; Global warming; Information theoretic; Latitudinal shifts; New York State; Range shifts

Indexed keywords

BIRD; ELEVATION; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; GLOBAL WARMING; LATITUDE; LONG-TERM CHANGE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PREDICTION; RANGE EXPANSION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

NEW YORK [UNITED STATES]; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

AVES;

EID: 67650141690     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01878.x     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Anderson DR (2008) Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences: A Primer on Evidence. Springer, New York, NY.
2. Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Gould WR, Cherry S (2001a) Concerns about finding effects that are actually spurious. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 29, 311-316.
3. Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Thompson WL (2000) Null hypothesis testing: problems, prevalence, and an alternative. Journal of Wildlife Management, 64, 912-923.
4. Anderson DR, Burnham KP, White GC (2001b) Kullback-Leibler information in resolving natural resource conflicts when definitive data exist. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 29, 311-316.
5. Andrle RF, Carroll JR (1988) The Atlas of Breeding Birds in New York State. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, USA.
6. Böhning-Gaese K, Lemoine N (2004) Importance of climate change for the ranges, communities, and conservation of birds. In: Birds and Climate Change, Advances in Ecological Research, Vol. 35 (eds Møller a P, Fiedler W, Berthold P), Elsevier Academic Press, New York, NY.
7. Brommer JE (2004) The range margins of northern birds shift polewards. Annales Zoologici Fennici, 41, 391-397.
8. Brown JH, Stevens GC, Kaufman DM (1996) The geographic range: Size, shape, boundaries, and internal structure. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 27, 597-623.
9. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, USA.
10. Channell R, Lomolino MV (2000) Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species. Nature, 403, 84-86.
11. Cook RD, Weisberg S (1982) Residuals and Influence in Regression. Chapman & Hall, NY, USA.
12. DeGraaf RM, Tilghman NG, Anderson SH (1985) Foraging guilds of North American birds. Environmental Management, 9, 493-536.
13. DeGraaf RM, Yamasaki M (2001) New England Wildlife: Habitat, Natural History, and Distribution. University Press of New England, Hanover, NH.
14. Fox J (1997) Applied Regression Analysis, Linear Models, and Related Methods. Sage Publications Inc., Beverly Hills, CA.
15. Gahl DM (2006) Forecast for New York: Projected Global Warming and Next Steps. Environmental Advocates of New York, Albany, NY.
16. Gaston KJ, Blackburn TM (2000) Pattern and Process in Macroecolgy. Blackwell Science, Malden, MA.
17. Gibbons DW, Donald PF, Bauer H-G, Fornasari L, Dawson IK (2007) Mapping avian distributions: The evolution of bird atlases. Bird Study, 54, 324-334.
18. Hayoe K, Wake CP, Huntington TG et al. (2007) Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Climate Dynamics, 28, 381-407.
19. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
20. Hill JK, Collingham YC, Thomas CD, Blakeley DS, Fox R, Moss D, Huntley B (2001) Impacts of landscape structure on butterfly range expansion. Ecology Letters, 4, 313-321.
21. Hill JK, Thomas CD, Fox R, Telfer MG, Willis SG, Asher J, Huntley B (2002) Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 269, 2163-2171.
22. Hitch AT, Leberg PL (2006) Breeding distributions of North American bird species moving north as a result of climate change. Conservation Biology, 21, 534-539.
23. IPCC (2007) In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL), pp. 30-33. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
24. Konvicka M, Maradova M, Benes J, Fric Z, Kepka P (2003) Uphill shifts in distribution of butterflies in the Czech Republic: Effects of changing climate detected on a regional scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 403-410.
25. La Sorte FA, Thompson FR (2007) Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds. Ecology, 88, 1803-1812.
26. Lemoine N, Bauer HG, Peintinger M, Bohning-Gaese K (2007) Effects of climate and land-use change on species abundance in a central European bird community. Conservation Biology, 21, 495-503.
27. Lomolino MV, Channell R (1998) Range collapse, re-introductions, and biogeographic guidelines for conservation. Conservation Biology, 12, 481-484.
28. Mcgowan K, Corwin K (2008) The Second Atlas of Breeding Birds in New York State. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.
29. Oglesby RT, Smith CR (1995) Climate change in the Northeast. In: Our living Resources: A Report to the Nation on the Distribution, Abundance, and Health of U.S. Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems (eds La Roe ET, Farris GS, Puckett CE, Doran PD, Mac MJ), U.S. Department of the Interior, National Biological Service, Washington, DC. 530 pp.
30. Palmer RA (2000) Quasireplication and the contract of error: Lessons from sex ratios, heritabilities, and fluctuating assymetry. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 31, 441-480.
31. Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature, 382, 765-766.
32. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 37, 637-669.
33. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
34. Patterson BD, Stotz DF, Solari S, Fitzpatrick JW, Pacheco V (1998) Contrasting patterns of elevational zonation for birds and mammals in the Andes of southeastern Peru. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 583-607.
35. Pounds JA, Fogden MPL, Campbell JH (1999) Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature, 398, 611-615.
36. Price JT, Glick PL (2002) The Birdwatcher's Guide to Global Warming. National Wildlife Federation and American Bird Conservancy, Washington, DC.
37. Ridgely RS, Allnutt TF, Brooks T, Mcnicol DK, Mehlman DW, Young BE, Zook JR (2003) Digital distribution maps of the birds of the Western Hemisphere, version 1.0., NatureServe, Arlington, VA.
38. Rodenhouse NL, Matthews SN, McFarland KP et al. (2008) Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13, 517-540.
39. Sauer JR, Hines JE, Thomas I, Fallon J, Gough G (1999) The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Results and Analysis 1966-1998. Version 98.1. USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD.
40. Sekercioglu CH, Schneider SH, Fay JP, Loarie SR (2008) Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conservation Biology, 22, 140-150.
41. Shoo LP, Williams SE, Hero JM (2005) Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size. Biological Conservation, 125, 335-343.
42. Shoo LP, Williams SE, Hero JM (2006) Detecting climate change induced range shifts: Where and how should we be looking? Austral Ecology, 31, 22-29.
43. Stephens PA, Buskirk SW, Martinez Del Rio C (2006) Inference in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 192-197.
44. Thomas CD (2000) Dispersal and extinction in fragmented landscapes. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences, 267, 139-145.
45. Thomas CD, Franco AMA, Hill JK (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 415-416.
46. Thomas CD, Lennon JJ (1999) Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature, 399, 213-213.
47. Trzcinski MK, Fahrig L, Merriam G (1999) Independent effects of forest cover and fragmentation on the distribution of forest breeding birds. Ecological Applications, 9, 586-593.
48. Walther GR, Berger S, Sykes MT (2005a) An ecological 'footprint' of climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 272, 1427-1432.
49. Walther GR, Hughes L, Vitousek P, Stenseth NC (2005b) Consensus on climate change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 20, 648-649.
50. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
51. Wilson RJ, Gutierrez D, Gutierrez J, Martinez D, Agudo R, Monserrat VJ (2005) Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecology Letters, 8, 1138-1146.
52. Zuckerberg B, Porter WF, Corwin K (2009) The consistency and stability of abundance-occupancy relationships in large-scale population dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology, 78, 172-181.