Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 276, Issue 1670, 2009, Pages 3167-3174

  La Sorte, Frank A ^a   Tien, Ming Lee ^a   Wilman, Hamish ^a   Jetz, Walter ^a  

^a University of California at San Diego   (United States)

Author keywords

Avian communities; Body size distributions; Climate change; Longitudinal analysis; Space for time substitution; Species richness

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; BODY MASS; BODY SIZE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION; LONGITUDINAL GRADIENT; SPATIAL VARIATION; SPECIES RICHNESS; WINTER;

ANIMAL COMMUNITY; ANIMAL EXPERIMENT; ARTICLE; BIRD; BODY MASS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; FEMALE; FORECASTING; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MALE; NONHUMAN; NORTH AMERICA; OBSERVATION; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SPACE; SPECIES RICHNESS; TIME; TREND STUDY;

AVES;

EID: 68849089307     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2009.0162     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Anderson, R. P., Peterson, A. T. & Gómez-Laverde, M. 2002 Using niche-based GIS modeling to test geographic predictions of competitive exclusion and the competitive release in South American pocket mice. Oikos 98, 3-16. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.t01-1-980116.x)
2. Araújo, M. B. & Luoto, M. 2007 The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 743-753. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00359.x)
3. Ashton, K. G. 2002 Patterns of within-species body size variation of birds: strong evidence for Bergmann's rule. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 11, 505-523. (doi:10.1046/j.1466-822X.2002.00313.x)
4. Blackburn, T. M. & Gaston, K. J. 1996 Spatial patterns in the body sizes of bird species in the New World. Oikos 77, 436-446. (doi:10.2307/3545933)
5. Brooker, R. W., Travis, J. M. J., Clark, E. J. & Dytham, C. 2007 Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. J. Theor. Biol. 245, 59-65. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.033)
6. Currie, D. J. 2001 Projected effects of climate change on patterns of vertebrate and tree species richness in the conterminous United States. Ecosystems 4, 216-225. (doi:10.1007/s10021-001-0005-4)
7. Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L. S., Lawton, J. H., Shorrocks, B. & Wood, S. 1998 Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species ranges in response to global warming. Nature 391, 783-786. (doi:10.1038/35842)
8. Dunne, J. A., Saleska, S. R., Fischer, M. L. & Harte, J. 2004 Integrating experimental and gradient methods in ecological climate change research. Ecology 85, 904-616. (doi:10.1890/03-8003)
9. Dunning, J. B. J. 1984 Body weights of 686 species of North American birds. Cave Creek, AZ: Western Bird Banding Association. Monograph no. 1. Eldon Publishing.
10. Fitzmaurice, G. M., Laird, N. M. & Ware, J. H. 2004 Applied longitudinal analysis. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley & Sons.
11. Fukami, T. & Wardle, D. A. 2005 Long-term ecological dynamics: reciprocal insights from natural and anthropogenic gradients. Proc. R. Soc. B 272, 2105-2115. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3277)
12. Gaston, K. J. & Blackburn, T. M. 1995 The frequency-distribution of bird body weights - aquatic and terrestrial species. Ibis 137, 237-240. (doi:10.1111/j.1474-919X.1995.tb03245.x)
13. Gaston, K. J. & Blackburn, T. M. 2000 Pattern and process in macroecology. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Science.
14. Gaston, K. J., Blackburn, T. M. & Spicer, J. I. 1998 Rapoport's rule: time for an epitaph? Trends Ecol. Evol. 13, 70-74. (doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(97)01236-6)
15. Gaston, K. J., Chown, S. L. & Evans, K. L. 2008 Ecogeographical rules: elements of a synthesis. J. Biogeogr. 35, 483-500. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01772.x)
16. Genner, M. J., Sims, D.W.,Wearmouth, V. J., Southall, E. J., Southward, A. J., Henderson, P. A. & Hawkins, S. J. 2004 Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fishes. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 271, 655-661. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2651)
17. Goldewijk, K. K. 2001 Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 417-433. (doi:10.1029/1999GB001232)
18. Goldewijk, K. K. 2005 Three centuries of global population growth: a spatial referenced population (density) database for 1700-2000. Popul. Environ. 26, 343-367. (doi:10.1007/s11111-005-3346-7)
19. Heegaard, E. & Vandvik, V. 2004 Climate change affects the outcome of competitive interactions - an application of principle response curves. Oecologia 139, 459-466. (doi:10.1007/s00442-004-1523-5)
20. Heikkinen, R. K., Luoto, M., Virkkala, R., Pearson, R. G. & Körber, J. 2007 Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions atmacro-scales. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 754-763. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00345.x)
21. Hiddink, J. G. & ter Hofstede, R. 2008 Climate induced increases in species richness of marine fishes. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 453-460. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01518.x)
22. Jenkins, D. G. et al. 2007 Does size matter for dispersal distance? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 415-425. (doi:10.1111/j.1466- 8238.2007.00312.x)
23. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D. S. & Dobson, A. P. 2007 Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol. 5, 1211-1219. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157)
24. Karl, T. R. & Trenberth, K. E. 2003 Modern global climate change. Science 302, 1719-1723. (doi:10.1126/science.1090228)
25. Kissling, W. D. & Carl, G. 2008 Spatial autocorrelation and the selection of simultaneous autoregressive models. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 59-71.
26. Lambin, E. F. & Geist, H. 2006 Land-use and land-cover change. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
27. Larsen, W. A. & McCleary, S. J. 1972 The use of partial residual plots in regression analysis. Technometrics 14, 781-790. (doi:10.2307/1267305)
28. La Sorte, F. A. & Thompson, F. R. 2007 Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds. Ecology 88, 1803-1812. (doi:10.1890/06-1072.1)
29. Lemoine, N. & Böhning-Gaese, K. 2003 Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants. Conserv. Biol. 17, 577-586. (doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01389.x)
30. Lemoine, N., Bauer, H. G., Peintinger, M. & Böhning-Gaese, K. 2007a Effects of climate and land-use change on species abundance in a central European bird community. Conserv. Biol. 21, 495-503. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00633.x)
31. Lemoine, N., Schaefer, H. C. & Böhning-Gaese, K. 2007b Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 55. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00252. x)
32. le Roux, P. C. & McGeoch, M. A. 2008 Rapid range expansion and community reorganization in response to warming. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 2950-2962. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01687.x)
33. McKinney, M. L. 2002 Urbanization, biodiversity, and conservation. Bioscience 52, 883-890. (doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2002)052[0883:UBAC] 2.0.CO;2)
34. Meiri, S. & Thomas, G. H. 2007 The geography of body size - challenges of the interspecific approach. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 689-693. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00343.x)
35. Menéndez, R., Megías, A. G., Hill, J. K., Braschler, B., Willis, S. G., Collingham, Y., Fox, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. 2006 Species richness changes lag behind climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B 273, 1465-1470. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3484)
36. Millien, V., Lyons, S. K., Olson, L., Smith, F. A., Wilson, A. B. & Yom-Tov, Y. 2006 Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules. Ecol. Lett. 9, 853-869. (doi:10.1111/j.1461- 0248.2006.00928.x)
37. Mitchell, T. D. & Jones, P. D. 2005 An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 693-712. (doi:10.1002/joc.1181)
38. National Audubon Society 2007 The Christmas Bird Count Historical Results. See http://www.audubon.org/bird/cbc; date accessed: 10 February 2008.
39. Pickett, S. T. A. 1987 Space-for-time substitution as an alternative. In Long-term studies in ecology: approaches and alternatives (ed. G. E. Likens), pp. 110-135. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
40. Pinheiro, J. C. & Bates, D. M. 2000 Mixed-effects models in S and S-PLUS. New York, NY: Springer.
41. Pöyry, J., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R. K., Kuussaari, M. & Saarinen, K. 2009 Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 732-743. (doi:10.1111/j.1365- 2486.2008.01789.x)
42. R Development Core Team 2009 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. See http://www.R-project.org.
43. Ramirez, L., Diniz, J. A. F. & Hawkins, B. A. 2008 Partitioning phylogenetic and adaptive components of the geographical body-size pattern of New World birds. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 100-110.
44. Root, T. L. 1988 Environmental factors associated with avian distributional boundaries. J. Biogeogr. 15, 489-505. (doi:10.2307/2845278)
45. Sala, O. E. et al. 2000 Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287, 1770-1774. (doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770)
46. Schaefer, H.-C., Jetz, W. & Böhning-Gaese, K. 2008 Impact of climate change on migratory birds: community reassembly versus adaption. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 38-49.
47. Stevens, G. C. 1989 The latitudinal gradient in geographical range: how so many species coexist in the tropics. Am. Nat. 133, 240-256. (doi:10.1086/284913)
48. USGS 1996 GTOPO30 -global topographic data. Sioux Falls, SD: United States Geological Survey, EROS Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (EDC DAAC).
49. Visser, M. E. et al. 2003 Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270, 367-372. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2244)
50. Warren, M. S. et al. 2001 Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414, 65-69. (doi:10.1038/35102054)
51. Williams, J. W. & Jackson, S. T. 2007 Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5, 475-482. (doi:10.1890/070037)
52. Willig, M. R., Kayfman, D. M. & Stevens, R. D. 2003 Latitudinal gradients of biodiversity: pattern, process, scale, and synthesis. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 34, 273-309. (doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34. 012103.144032)