Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

Journal of Animal Ecology

Volumn 80, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 403-413

  Zuckerberg, Benjamin ^a   Bonter, David N ^a   Hochachka, Wesley M ^a   Koenig, Walter D ^a   DeGaetano, Arthur T ^b   Dickinson, Janis L ^a  

^a Fuller Evolutionary Biology Program   (United States)

^b Institute for the Study of the Continents   (United States)

Author keywords

Citizen science; Climate change; Feeder Watch; Habitat loss; Occupancy modelling; Ranges; Supplemental feeding; Wintering birds

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ADAPTIVE RADIATION; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; EXTINCTION; FOOD SUPPLEMENTATION; HABITAT LOSS; LANDSCAPE; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; RESOURCE AVAILABILITY; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES DIVERSITY; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; URBANIZATION; WEATHER; WILD POPULATION;

ADAPTATION; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BIRD; CANADA; CLIMATE; FEEDING BEHAVIOR; HUMAN; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASON; TEMPERATURE; UNITED STATES; URBANIZATION;

ADAPTATION, BIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CANADA; CLIMATE; FEEDING BEHAVIOR; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONS; TEMPERATURE; UNITED STATES; URBANIZATION;

CANADA;

AVES;

EID: 79551592573     PISSN: 00218790     EISSN: 13652656     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01780.x     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Altwegg, R., Wheeler, M. & Erni, B. (2008) Climate and the range dynamics of species with imperfect detection. Biology Letters, 4, 581-584.
2. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Yoccoz, N.G. (2009) Reopening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, E45-E46.
3. Aspinall, R.J., Miller, J.A. & Franklin, J. (2009) Calculations on the back of a climate envelope: addressing the geography of species distributions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, E44-E44.
4. Beale, C.M., Lennon, J.J. & Gimona, A. (2008) Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 14908-14912.
5. Broggi, J., Orell, M., Hohtola, E. & Nilson, J.A. (2004) Metabolic response to temperature variation in the great tit: an interpopulation comparison. Journal of Animal Ecology, 73, 967-972.
6. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. Springer, New York.
7. Canterbury, G. (2002) Metabolic adaptation and climatic constraints on winter bird distribution. Ecology, 83, 946-957.
8. Chamberlain, D.E., Vickery, J.A., Glue, D.E., Robinson, R.A., Conway, G.J., Woodburn, R.J.W. & Cannon, A.R. (2005) Annual and seasonal trends in the use of garden feeders by birds in winter. Ibis, 147, 563-575.
9. Chaplin, S.B. (1974) Daily energetics of Black-Capped Chickadee, Parus-atricapillus, in winter. Journal of Comparative Physiology, 89, 321-330.
10. DeGaetano, A.T. & Belcher, B.N. (2007) Spatial interpolcation of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures based on meteorological model analyses and independent observations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46, 1981-1992.
11. DeGaetano, A.T. & Wilks, D.S. (2009) Radar-guided interpolation of climatological precipitation data. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 185-196.
12. Doherty, P.F. & Grubb, T.C. (2002) Survivorship of permanent-resident birds in a fragmented forested landscape. Ecology, 83, 844-857.
13. Fahrig, L. (2003) Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 34, 487-515.
14. Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
15. Fiske, I. & Chandler, R. (2010) unmarked: Models for Data from Unmarked Animals. R package version 0.8-6.
16. Fretwell, S.D. (1972) Populations in a Seasonal Environment. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
17. Gaston, K.J. (2009) Geographic range limits: achieving synthesis. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 276, 1395-1406.
18. Hosmer, D.W. & Lemeshow, S. (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York.
19. IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996. pp.
20. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D.S. & Dobson, A.P. (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. Plos Biology, 5, 1211-1219.
21. Jiguet, F., Julliard, R., Thomas, C.D., Dehorter, O., Newson, S.E. & Couvet, D. (2006) Thermal range predicts bird population resilience to extreme high temperatures. Ecology Letters, 9, 1321-1330.
22. Kwit, C., Levey, D.J., Greenberg, C.H., Pearson, S.F., McCarty, J.P. & Sargent, S. (2004) Cold temperature increases winter fruit removal rate of a bird-dispersed shrub. Oecologia, 139, 30-34.
23. La Sorte, F.A. & Thompson, F.R. (2007) Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds. Ecology, 88, 1803-1812.
24. La Sorte, F.A., Lee, T.M., Wilman, H. & Jetz, W. (2009) Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 276, 3167-3174.
25. Lack, D. (1966) Population Studies of Birds. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
26. Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588-597.
27. Link, W.A. & Sauer, J.R. (2007) Seasonal components of avian population change: joint analysis of two large-scale monitoring programs. Ecology, 88, 49-55.
28. MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Lachman, G.B., Droege, S., Royle, J.A. & Langtimm, C.A. (2002) Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology, 83, 2248-2255.
29. MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E., Knutson, M.G. & Franklin, A.B. (2003) Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology, 84, 2200-2207.
30. MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Royle, J.A., Pollock, K.H., Bailey, L.L. & Hines, J.E. (2006) Occupancy Estimation and Modeling: Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species, Elsevier, Burlington, Massachusetts.
31. Meehan, T.D., Jetz, W. & Brown, J.H. (2004) Energetic determinants of abundance in winter landbird communities. Ecology Letters, 7, 532-537.
32. Mouton, A.M., Baets, B.D. & Goethals, P.L.M. (2010) Ecological relevance of performance criteria for species distribution models. Ecological Modelling, 221, 1995-2002.
33. Mugaas, J.N. & King, J.R. (1981) Annual variation of daily energy expenditure by the black-billed magpie: a study of thermal and behavioral energetics. Studies in Avian Biology, 5, 1-78.
34. Mustin, K., Sutherland, W.J. & Gill, J.A. (2007) The complexity of predicting climate-induced ecological impacts. Climate Research, 35, 165-175.
35. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
36. Perdeck, A.C., Visser, M.E. & Van Balen, J.H. (2000) Great Tit, Parus major, survival, and the beech-crop cycle. Ardea, 88, 99-108.
37. Peterson, A.T., Barve, N., Bini, L.M., Diniz-Filho, J.A., Jiménez-Valverde, A., Lira-Noriegaa, A., Lobo, J., Maher, S., de Marco, P., Martínez-Meyer, E., Nakazawa, Y. & Soberón, J. (2009) The climate envelope may not be empty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, E47-E47.
38. Poole, A. (2005) The Birds of North America Online: Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, New York.
39. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
40. Repasky, R.R. (1991) Temperature and northern distribution of wintering birds. Ecology, 72, 2274-2285.
41. Robb, G.N., McDonald, R.A., Chamberlain, D.E. & Bearhop, S. (2008) Food for thought: supplementary feeding as a driver of ecological change in avian populations. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 6, 476-484.
42. Robinson, R.A., Baillie, S.R. & Crick, H.Q.P. (2007) Weather-dependent survival: implications of climate change for passerine population processes. Ibis, 149, 357-364.
43. Root, T. (1988a) Environmental factors associated with avian distributional boundaries. Journal of Biogeography, 15, 489-505.
44. Root, T. (1988b) Energy constraints on avian distributions and abundances. Ecology, 69, 330-339.
45. Sexton, J.P., McIntyre, P.J., Angert, A.L. & Rice, K.J. (2009) Evolution and ecology of species range limits. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40, 415-436.
46. Siriwardena, G.M., Calbrade, N.A. & Vickery, J.A. (2008) Farmland birds and late winter food: does seed supply fail to meet demand? Ibis, 150, 585-595.
47. Siriwardena, G.M., Stevens, D.K., Anderson, G.Q.A., Vickery, J.A., Calbrade, N.A. & Dodd, S. (2007) The effect of supplementary winter seed food on breeding populations of farmland birds: evidence from two large-scale experiments. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44, 920-932.
48. Tingley, M.W., Monahan, W.B., Beissinger, S.R. & Moritz, C. (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 19637-19643.
49. Wells, J.V., Rosenberg, K.V., Dunn, E.H., Tessaglia-Hymes, D.L. & Dhondt, A.A. (1998) Feeder counts as indicators of spatial and temporal variation in winter abundance of resident birds. Journal of Field Ornithology, 69, 577-586.