Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics

Volumn 37, Issue , 2006, Pages 637-669

  Parmesan, Camille ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

Aquatic; Global warming; Phenology; Range shift; Terrestrial; Trophic asynchrony

Indexed keywords

AMPHIBIAN; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORAL REEF; ECOLOGICAL APPROACH; EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; GLOBAL WARMING; PHENOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;

AMPHIBIA; ANIMALIA; ANTHOZOA; INSECTA;

EID: 33748994063     PISSN: 1543592X     EISSN: 15452069     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100     Document Type: Review

References (233)

1. Ahmad QK, Warrick RA, Downing TE, Nishioka S, Parikh KS, et al. 2001. Methods and tools. See IPCC 2001a, pp. 105-43
2. Ainley DG, Ballard G, Emslie SD, Fraser WR, Wilson PR, Woehler EJ. 2003. Adelie penguins and environmental change. Science 300:429-30
3. Ainley DG, Divoky GJ. 1998. Climate change and seabirds: a review of trends in the eastern portion of the Pacific Basin. Pac. Seab. 25:20
4. Alley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I. 2005. Ice-sheet and sea-level changes. Science 310:456-60
5. Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, et al. 2003. Abrupt climate change. Science 299:2005-10
6. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC. 1954. The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. Chicago, IL: Univ. Chicago Press
7. Anisimov O, Fitzharris B, Hagen JO, Jefferies R, Marchant H, et al. 2001. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). See IPCC 2001a, pp. 801-47
8. Antonovics J. 1976. The nature of limits to natural selection. Ann. Mo. Bot. Gard. 63:224-47
9. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
10. Atkinson A, Siegel V, Pakhomov E, Rothery P. 2004. Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature 432:100-3
11. Badeck FW, Bondeau A, Böttcher K, Doktor D, Lucht W, et al. 2004. Responses of spring phenology to climate change. New Phytol. 162:295-309
12. Baker AC. 2001. Reef corals bleach to survive change. Nature 411:765-66
13. Baker AC, Starger CJ, McClanahan TR, Glynn PW. 2004. Coral reefs: corals' adaptive response to climate change. Nature 430:741
14. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer TM, et al. 2002. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob. Change Biol. 8:1-16
15. Barber VA, Juday GP, Finney BP. 2000. Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature 405:668-73
16. Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H. 2001. Emperor penguins and climate change. Nature 411:183-86
17. Battisti A, Stastny M, Netherer S, Robinet C, Schopf A, et al. 2005. Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter temperatures. Ecol. Appl. 15:2084-96
18. Beare DJ, Burns F, Greig A, Jones EG, Peach K, et al. 2004. Long-term increases in prevalence of North Sea fishes having southern biogeographic affinities. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 284:269-78
19. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibanez F, Lindley JA, Edwards M. 2002. Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296:1692-94
20. Beebee TJC. 1995. Amphibian breeding and climate. Nature 374:219-20
21. Beever EA, Brussard PF, Berger J. 2003. Patterns of apparent extirpation among isolated populations of pikas (Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin. J. Mammal. 84:37-54
22. Berteaux D, Reale D, McAdam AG, Boutin S. 2004. Keeping pace with fast climate change: Can Arctic life count on evolution? Integr. Comp. Biol. 44:140-51
23. Blenckner T, Hillebrand H. 2002. North Atlantic Oscillation signatures in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems: a meta-analysis. Glob. Change Biol. 8:203-12
24. Both C, Artemyev AV, Blaauw B, Cowie RJ, Dekhuijzen AJ, et al. 2004. Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 271:1657-62
25. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Wellington H. 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96:9701-4
26. Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM. 2001. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 98:14509-11
27. Briffa KR, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Harris IC, et al. 1998a. Trees tell of past climates, but are they speaking less clearly today? Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B 353:65-73
28. Briffa KR, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA. 1998b. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature 391:678-82
29. Brown JL, Li SH, Bhagabati N. 1999. Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to global warming? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96:5565-69
30. Bumpus HC. 1899. The elimination of the unfit as illustrated by the introduced sparrow, Passer domesicus. In Biological Lectures Delivered at the Marine Biological Laboratory of Wood's Holl, 1896-97, pp. 209-26. Boston: Ginn & Co
31. Burger M. 1998. Physiological mechanisms limiting the northern boundary of the winter range of the northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis). PhD diss. Univ. Mich., Ann Arbor
32. Burton J. 1975. The effects of recent climatic change on British insects. Bird Study 22:203-4
33. Burton JF. 1998a. The apparent effects of climatic changes since 1850 on European lepidoptera. Mém. Soc. R. Belge Entomol. 38:125-44
34. Burton JF. 1998b. The apparent responses of European lepidottera to the climate changes of the past hundred years. Atropos 5:24-30
35. Caldeira K, Wickett ME. 2003. Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425:365
36. Cayan DR, Kammerdiener SA, Dettinger MD, Caprio JM, Peterson DH. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82:399-415
37. Chapin FS III, Herman M, Callaghan TV, Convey P, Crepin AS, et al. 2006. Polar systems. In Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being, Volume 1: Current State and Trends, ed. R Hassan, R Scholes, N Ash, pp. 717-43. Washington, DC: Island Press
38. Chapin FS III, Shaver GR, Giblin AE, Nadelhoffer KG, Laundre JA. 1995. Response of Arctic tundra to experimental and observed changes in climate. Ecology 76:694-711
39. Chuine I, Beaubien E. 2001. Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range. Ecol. Lett. 4:500-10
40. Coope GR. 1994. The response of insect faunas to glacial-interglacial climatic fluctuations. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B. 344:19-26
41. Crick HQ, Dudley C, Glue DE. 1997. UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature 388:526
42. Croxall JP, Trathan PN, Murphy EJ. 2002. Environmental change and Antarctic seabird populations. Science 297:1510-14
43. Crozier L. 2003. Winter warming facilitates range expansion: cold tolerance of the butterfly Atalopedes campestris. Oecologia 135:648-56
44. Crozier L. 2004. Warmer winters drive butterfly range expansion by increasing survivorship. Ecology 85:231-41
45. Davis MB, Shaw RG. 2001. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292:673-79
46. Davis MB, Zabinski C. 1992. Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: effects on biodiversity in forests. In Global Warming and Biological Diversity, ed. TEL Peters, R Lovejoy, pp. 297-308. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
47. Dennis RLH. 1993. Butterflies and Climate Change. Manchester, UK: Manchester Univ. Press
48. Derocher AE. 2005. Population ecology of polar bears at Svarlbad, Norway. Popul. Ecol. 47:267-75
49. Derocher AE, Lunn NJ, Stirling I. 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol. 44:163-76
50. Descimon H, Bachelard P, Boitier E, Pierrat V. 2006. Decline and extinction of Parnassius apollo populations in France-continued. In Studies on the Ecology and Conservation of Butterflies in Europe (EBIE), ed. E Kühn, R Feldmann, J Settele. Bulgaria: PENSOFT. In press
51. deYoung B, Harris R, Alheit J, Beaugrand G, Mantua N, Shannon L. 2004. Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: data considerations. Prog. Oceanogr. 60:143-64
52. Dobzhansky TH. 1943. Genetics of natural populations. IX. Temporal changes in the composition of populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura. Genetics 28:162-86
53. Dobzhansky TH. 1947. A response of certain gene arrangements in the third chromosome of Drosophila pseudoobscura to natural selection. Genetics 32:142-60
54. Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O. 2005. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11:2251-65
55. Doran PT, Priscu JC, Lyons WB, Walsh JE, Fountain AG, et al. 2002. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Nature 415:517-22
56. Dose V, Menzel A. 2004. Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology. Glob. Change Biol. 10:259-72
57. Dunn PO, Winkler DW. 1999. Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 266:2487-90
58. Easterling DR, Meehl J, Parmesan C, Chagnon S, Karl TR, Mearns LO. 2000. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068-74
59. Ehrlich PR, Murphy DD, Singer MC, Sherwood CB, White RR, Brown IL. 1980. Extinction, reduction, stability and increase: the responses of checkerspot butterfly populations to the California drought. Oecologia 46:101-5
60. Emslie SD, Fraser W, Smith RC, Walker W. 1998. Abandoned penguin colonies and environmental change in the Palmer Station area, Anvers Island, Anatarctic Peninsula. Antarct. Sci. 10:257-68
61. Ferguson SH, Stirling I, McLoughlin P. 2005. Climate change and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) recruitment in western Hudson Bay. Mar. Mamm. Sci. 21:121-35
62. Ford EB. 1945. Butterflies. London: Collins
63. Ford SE. 1996. Range extension by the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus into the northeastern United States: response to climate change? J. Shellfish Res. 15:45-56
64. Forister ML, Shapiro AM. 2003. Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California. Glob. Change Biol. 9:1130-35
65. Fraser WR, Trivelpiece WZ, Ainley DC, Trivelpiece SG. 1992. Increases in Antarctic penguin populations: reduced competition with whales or a loss of sea ice due to environmental warming? Polar Biol. 11:525-31
66. Garcia-Ramos G, Kirkpatrick M. 1997. Genetic models of adaptation and gene flow in peripheral populations. Evolution 51:21-28
67. Gaston AJ, Gilchrist HG, Hipfner M. 2005. Climate change, ice conditions and reproduction in an Arctic nesting marine bird: Brunnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia L.). J. Anim. Ecol. 74:832-41
68. Gibbs JP, Breisch AR. 2001. Climate warming and calling phenology of frogs near Ithaca, New York, 1900-1999. Conserv. Biol. 15:1175-78
69. Gordo O, Brotons L, Rerrer X, Comass P. 2005. Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds? Glob. Change Biol. 11:12-21
70. Grabherr G, Gottfried M, Pauli H. 1994. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369:448
71. Grinnell J. 1917. Field tests of theories concerning distributional control. Am. Nat. 51:115-28
72. Gross L. 2005. As the Antarctic ice pack recedes, a fragile ecosystem hangs in the balance. PLoS Biol. 3(4):e127
73. Gudmundsson F. 1951. The effects of the recent climatic changes on the bird life of Iceland. Proc. 10th Int. Ornithol. Congr., Uppsala, June 1950, pp. 502-14
74. Gurevitch J, Hedges LV. 1999. Statistical issues in ecological meta-analyses. Ecology 80:1142-49
75. Haeger JF. 1999. Danaus chrysippus (Linnaeus 1758) en la Península Ibérica: migraciones o dinámica de metapoblaciones? Shilap 27:423-30
76. Hanski I, Erälahti C, Kankare M, Ovaskainen O, Sirén H. 2004. Variation in migration propensity among individuals maintained by landscape structure. Ecol. Lett. 7:958-66
77. Hari RE, Livingstone DM, Siber R, Burkhardt-Holm P, Güttinger H. 2006. Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout population in Alpine rivers and streams. Glob. Change Biol. 12:10-26
78. Harrington R, Woiwod I, Sparks T. 1999. Climate change and trophic interactions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14:146-50
79. Harris G. 1964. Climatic changes since 1860 affecting European birds. Weather 19:70-79
80. Hays GC, Richardson AJ, Robinson C. 2005. Climate change and marine plankton. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20:337-44
81. Heath J. 1974. A century of changes in the lepidoptera. In The Changing Flora and Fauna of Britain, ed. DL Hawkesworth, 6:275-92. London: Syst. Assoc.
82. Hemp A. 2005. Climate change-driven forest fires marginalize the impact of ice cap wasting on Kilimanjaro. Glob. Change Biol. 11:1013-23
83. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Thomas CD. 2005. A northward shift of range margins in British Odonata. Glob. Change Biol. 11:502-6
84. Hill GE, Sargent RR, Sargent MB. 1998. Recent change in the winter distribution of Rufous Hummingbirds. Auk 115:240-45
85. Hill JK, Thomas CD, Fox R, Telfer MG, Willis SG, et al. 2002. Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 269:2163-71
86. Hill JK, Thomas CD, Lewis OT. 1999. Flight morphology in fragmented populations of a rare British butterfly, Hesperia comma. Biol. Conserv. 87:277-84
87. Hoegh-Guldberg O. 1999. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res. 50:839-66
88. 2 world. J. Geophys. Res. 110:C09S06
89. Hoegh-Guldberg O. 2005b. Marine ecosystems and climate change. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 256-71
90. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jones RJ, Ward S, Loh WK. 2002. Is coral bleaching really adaptive? Nature 415:601-2
91. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Pearse JS. 1995. Temperature, food availability, and the development of marine invertebrate larvae. Am. Zool. 35:415-25
92. Hoffmann AA, Blows MW. 1994. Species borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives. Trends Ecol. Evol. 9:223-27
93. Holbrook SJ, Schmitt RJ, Stephens JS Jr. 1997. Changes in an assemblage of temperate reef fishes associated with a climatic shift. Ecol. Appl. 7:1299-310
94. Holmgren M, Scheffer M, Ezcurra E, Gutierrez JR, Mohren GMJ. 2001. El Niño effects on the dynamics of terresrial ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 16:89-94
95. Holt RD. 2003. On the evolution ecology of species' ranges. Evol. Ecol. Res. 5:159-78
96. Howell SNG. 2002. Hummingbirds of North America. San Diego, CA: Academic
97. Hughes L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: Is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol. Evol. 15:56-61
98. Huntley B. 1991. How plants respond to climate change: migration rates, individualism and the consequences for the plant communities. J. Bot. 67:15-22
99. Hüppop O, Hüppop K. 2003. North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 270:233-40
100. Innes JL. 1991. High-altitude and high-latitude tree growth in relation to past, present, and future global climate change. Holocene 1:168-73
101. Inouye DW, Barr B, Armitage KB, Inouye BD. 2000. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97:1630-33
102. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change). 2001a. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, ed. JJ McCarthy, OF Canziani, NA Leary, DJ Dokken, KS White. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
103. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change). 2001b. Climate Change 2001: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, ed. JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Noguer, PJ van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell, CA Johnson. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
104. Jacoby GC, D'Arrigo RD. 1995. Tree ring width and density evidence of climatic and potential forest change in Alaska. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 9:227-34
105. Johnson T, Dozier J, Michaelsen J. 1999. Climate change and Sierra Nevada snowpack. IAHS Publ. 256:63-70
106. Johnston RF, Niles DM, Rohwer SA. 1972. Hermon Bumpus and natural selection in the house sparrow Passer domesticus. Evolution 26:20-31
107. Jordano D, Retamosa EC, Fernandez H. 1991. Factors facilitating the continued presence of Colons evagore (Klug 1829) in southern Spain. J. Biogeogr. 18:637-46
108. Jump AS, Peñuelas J. 2005. Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecol. Lett. 8:1010-20
109. Kaisila J. 1962. Immigration und Expansion der Lepidopteren in Finnland in den Jahren 1869-1960. Acta Entomol. Fenn. 18:1-452
110. Kalela O. 1949. Changes in geographic ranges in the avifauna of northern and central Europe in response to recent changes in climate. Bird-Band. 20:77-103
111. Kalela O. 1952. Changes in the geographic distribution of Finnish birds and mammals in relation to recent changes in climate. In The Recent Climatic Fluctuation in Finland and its Consequences: A Symposium, ed. I Hustichi, pp. 38-51. Helsinki: Fennia
112. Karieva PM, Kingsolver JG, Huey RB, eds. 1993. Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer
113. Karl TR, Trenberth KE. 2003. Modern global climate change. Science 302:1719-23
114. 2 measurements. Nature 382:146-49
115. Kirkpatrick M, Barton NH. 1997. Evolution of a species' range. Am. Nat. 150:1-23
116. Kullman L. 2001. 20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden. Ambio 30:72-80
117. Kutz SJ, Hoberg EP, Polley L, Jenkins EJ. 2005. Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host-parasite systems. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 272:2571-76
118. Lapenis A, Shvidenko A, Shepaschenko D, Nilsson S, Aiyyer A. 2005. Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate. Glob. Change Biol. 11:2090-102
119. Lescop-Sinclair K, Payette S. 1995. Recent advance of the Arctic treeline along the eastern coast of Hudson Bay. J. Ecol. 83:929-36
120. Levitan M. 2003. Climatic factors and increased frequencies of 'southern' chromosome forms in natural populations of Drosophila robusta. Evol. Ecol. Res. 5:597-604
121. Lewontin RC, Birch LC. 1966. Hybridization as a source of variation for adaptation to new environments. Evolution 20:315-36
122. Lindgren E, Gustafson R. 2001. Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change. Lancet 358:16-18
123. Logan JA, Regniere J, Powell JA. 2003. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Front. Ecol. Environ. 1:130-37
124. Lovejoy T, Hannah L, eds. 2005. In Climate Change and Biodiversity. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
125. Luckman B, Kavanagh T. 2000. Impact of climate fluctuations on mountain environments in the Canadian Rockies. Ambio 29:371-80
126. Lynch M, Lande R. 1993. Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. See Karieva et al. 1993, pp. 234-50
127. MacArthur RM. 1972. Geographical Ecology. New York: Harper & Row
128. Marttila O, Haahtela T, Aarnio H, Ojalainen P. 1990. Suomen Päiväperhoset. Helsinki: Kirjayhtymä
129. McGowan JA, Cayan DR, Dorman LM. 1998. Climate-ocean variability and ecosystem response in the Northeast Pacific. Science 281:210-17
130. Meehl GA, Zwiers F, Evans J, Knutson T, Mearns LO, Whetton P. 2000. Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81:427-36
131. Menzel A. 2000. Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. Int. J. Biometeorol. 44:76-81
132. Menzel A. 2005. A 500 year pheno-climatological view on the 2003 heatwave in Europe assessed by grape harvest dates. Meteorol. Z. 14:75-77
133. Menzel A, Dose V. 2005. Analysis of long-term time-series of beginning of flowering by Bayesian function estimation. Meteorol. Z. 14:429-34
134. Menzel A, Fabian P. 1999. Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659
135. Menzel A, Jakobi G, Ahas R, Scheifinger H, Estrella N. 2003. Variations of the climatological growing season (1951-2000) in Germany compared with other countries. Int. J. Climatol. 23:793-812
136. Meshinev T, Apostolova I, Koleva E. 2000. Influence of warming on timberline rising: a case study on Pinus peuce Griseb. in Bulgaria. Phytocoenologia 30:431-38
137. Mikkola K. 1997. Population trends of Finnish Lepidoptera during 1961-1996. Entomol. Fenn. 3:121-43
138. Moiseev PA, Shiyatov SG. 2003. The use of old landscape photographs for studying vegetation dynamics at the treeline ecotone in the Ural Highlands, Russia. In Alpine Biodiversity in Europe, ed. L Nagy, G Grabherr, C Körner, DBA Thompson, pp. 423-36. Berlin: Springer-Verlag
139. Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani RR. 1997. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386:698-702
140. Nylin S. 1988. Host plant specialization and seasonality in a phytophagous butterfly, Polygonia c-album (Nymphalidae). Oikos 53:381-86
141. Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont O, Bopp L, Doney SC, et al. 2005. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681-86
142. Ottersen G, Planque B, Belgrano A, Post E, Reid PC, Stenseth NC. 2001. Ecological effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Oecologia 128:1-14
143. Parmesan C. 1996. Climate and species' range. Nature 382:765-66
144. Parmesan C. 2002. Detection of range shifts: general methodological issues and case studies using butterflies. In Fingerprints of Climate Change: Adapted Behaviour and Shifting Species' Ranges, ed. G-R Walther, CA Burga, PJ Edwards, pp. 57-76. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Acad./Plenum
145. Parmesan C. 2003. Butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change impacts. In Evolution and Ecology Taking Flight: Butterflies as Model Systems, ed. CL Boggs, WB Watt, PR Ehrlich, pp. 541-60. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
146. Parmesan C. 2005a. Detection at multiple levels: Euphydryas editha and climate change. Case study. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 56-60
147. Parmesan C. 2005b. Range and abundance changes. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 41-55
148. Parmesan C, Gaines S, Gonzalez L, Kaufman DM, Kingsolver J, et al. 2005. Empirical perspectives on species' borders: environmental change as challenge and opportunity. Oikos 108:58-75
149. Parmesan C, Galbraith H. 2004. Observed Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in North America. Arlington, VA: Pew Cent. Glob. Clim. Change
150. Parmesan C, Martens P. 2006. Climate change. In Biodiversity, Health and the Environment: SCOPE/Diversitas Rapid Assessment Project, ed. O Sala, L Meyerson, C Parmesan. Washington, DC: Island Press. In press
151. Parmesan C, Root TL, Willig MR. 2000. Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81:443-50
152. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, et al. 1999. Pole-ward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399:579-83
153. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42
154. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Grabherr G. 1996. Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems: upward shifting of mountain plants. World Res. Rev. 8:382-90
155. Paulson DR. 2001. Recent odonata records from southern Florida: effects of global warming? Int. J. Odonatol. 4:57-69
156. Peñuelas J, Filella I. 2001. Responses to a warming world. Science 294:793-94
157. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD. 2005. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308:1912-15
158. Pollard E. 1979. Population ecology and change in range of the white admiral butterfly Ladoga Camilla L. in England. Ecol. Entomol. 4:61-74
159. Pollard E, Eversham BC. 1995. Butterfly monitoring 2: interpreting the changes. In Ecology and Conservation of Butterflies, ed. AS Pullin, pp. 23-36. London: Chapman & Hall
160. Post E, Langvatn R, Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC. 1999. Environmental variation shapes sexual dimorhism in red deer. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96:4467-71
161. Pounds JA, Bustamente MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA, Fogden MPL, et al. 2006. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439:161-67
162. Pounds JA, Fogden MPL, Campbell JH. 1999. Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611-15
163. Pounds JA, Fogden MPL, Masters KL. 2005. Responses of natural communities to climate change in a highland tropical forest. Case study. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 70-74
164. Precht H, Christophersen J, Hensel H, Larcher W. 1973. Temperature and Life. New York: Springer-Verlag
165. Precht WF, Aronson RB. 2004. Climate flickers and range shifts of reef corals. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2:307-14
166. Réale D, McAdam A, Outin G, Berteaux S. 2003. Genetic and plastic response of a northern mammal to climate change. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 270:591-96
167. Reid PC, Edwards M, Hunt HG, Warner AJ. 1998. Phytoplankton change in the North Atlantic. Nature 391:546
168. Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS. 2004. Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. Science 305:1609-12
169. Rodríguez-Trelles F, Álvarez G, Zapata C. 1996. Time-series analysis of seasonal changes of the O inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura. Genetics 142:179-87
170. Rodríguez-Trelles F, Rodriguez MA. 1998. Rapid micro-evolution and loss of chromosomal diversity in Drosophila in response to climate warming. Evol. Ecol. 12:829-38
171. Rodríguez-Trelles F, Rodriguez MA, Scheiner SM. 1998. Tracking the genetic effects of global warming: Drosophila and other model systems. Conserv. Ecol. 2:2
172. Roessig JM, Woodley CM, Cech JJ, Hansen LJ. 2004. Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 14:215-75
173. Roetzer T, Wittenzeller M, Haeckel H, Nekovar J. 2000. Phenology in central Europe: difference and trends of spring phenophases in urban and rural areas. Int. J. Biometeorol. 44:60-66
174. Root TL. 1988. Energy constraints on avian distributions and abundances. Ecology 69:330-39
175. Root TL, Hughes L. 2005. Present and future phenological changes in wild plants and animals. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 61-69
176. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60
177. Rowan R. 2004. Thermal adaptation in reef coral symbionts. Nature 430:742
178. Roy DB, Sparks TH. 2000. Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 6:407-16
179. Sagarin RD, Barry JP, Gilman SE, Baxter CH. 1999. Climate-related change in an intertidal community over short and long time scales. Ecol. Monogr. 69:465-90
180. Salomonsen F. 1948. The distribution of birds and the recent climatic change in the North Atlantic area. Dansk. Orn. Foren. Tidsskr. 42:85-99
181. Schwartz MD. 1998. Green-wave phenology. Nature 394:839-40
182. Schwartz MD. 1999. Advancing to full bloom: planning phenological research for the 21st century. Int. J. Biometeorol. 42:113-18
183. Scriber JM, Lederhouse RC. 1992. The thermal environment as a resource dictating geographic patterns of feeding specialization of insect herbinores. In Effects of Resource Distribution on Plant-Animal Interactions, ed. MR Hunter, T Ohgushi, PW Price, pp 429-66. New York: Academic
184. Severnty DL. 1977. The use of data on the distribution of birds to monitor climatic changes. Emu 77:162-66
185. Shoo LP, Williams SE, Hero JM. 2006. Detecting climate change induces range shifts: Where and how should we be looking? Aust. Ecol. 31:22-29
186. Singer MC. 1972. Complex components of habitat suitability within a butterfly colony. Science 176:75-77
187. Singer MC, Ehrlich PR. 1979. Population dynamics of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas editha. Fortschr. Zool. 25:53-60
188. Singer MC, Thomas CD. 1996. Evolutionary responses of a butterfly metapopulation to human and climate-caused environmental variation. Am. Nat. 148:S9-39
189. Smith AT. 1974. The distribution and dispersal of pikas: influences of behavior and climate. Ecology 55:1368-76
190. Smith RC, Ainley D, Kaber K, Domack E, Emslie S, et al. 1999. Marine ecosystem sensitivity to historical climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. BioScience 49:393-404
191. Smith RIL. 1994. Vascular plants as bioindicators of regional warming in Antarctica. Oecologia 99:322-28
192. Smol JP, Wolfe AP, Birks HJB, Douglas MSV, Jones VJ, et al. 2005. Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of Arctic lakes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102:4397-402
193. Southward AJ, Hawkins SJ, Burrows MT. 1995. Seventy years' observations of changes in distribution and abundance of Zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English Channel in relation to rising sea temperature. J. Therm. Biol. 20:127-55
194. Southward AJ, Langmead O, Hardman-Mountford NJ, Aiken J, Boalch GT, et al. 2005. Long-term oceanographic and ecological research in the western English Channel. Adv. Mar. Biol. 47:1-105
195. Sparks TH, Menzel A. 2002. Observed changes in seasons, an overview. Int. J. Climatol. 22:1715-26
196. Sparks TH, Yates TJ. 1997. The effect of spring temperature on the appearance dates of British butterflies 1883-1993. Ecography 20:368-74
197. Spear LB, Ainley DG. 1999. Migration routes of sooty shearwaters in the Pacific Ocean. Condor 101:205-18
198. Stefanescu C, Peñuelas J, Filella I. 2003. Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. Glob. Change Biol. 9:1494
199. Stirling I. 2002. Polar bears and seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf: a synthesis of population trends and ecological relationships over three decades. Arctic 55:59-76
200. Stirling I, Lunn NJ, Iacozza J. 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climatic change. Arctic 52:294-306
201. Sturm M, Racine C, Tape K. 2001. Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411:546-47
202. Sturm M, Schimel J, Mechaelson G, Welker JM, Oberbauer SF, et al. 2005. Winter biological processes could help convert Arctic tundra to shrubland. BioScience 55:17-26
203. Swetnam TW, Betancourt JL. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. J. Clim. 11:3128-47
204. Taylor RH, Wilson PR. 1990. Recent increase and southern expansion of Adelie penguin populations in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, related to climatic warming. N.Z. J. Ecol. 14:25-29
205. Thomas C. 2005. Recent evolutionary effects of climate change. See Lovejoy & Hannah 2005, pp. 75-90
206. Thomas CD, Bodsworth EJ, Wilson RJ, Simmons AD, Davies ZG, et al. 2001. Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature 411:577-81
207. Thomas CD, Lennon JJ. 1999. Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature 399:213
208. Thomas CD, Singer MC, Boughton D. 1996. Catastrophic extinction of population sources in a butterfly metapopulation. Am. Nat. 148:957-75
209. Travis J, Futuyma DJ. 1993. Global change: lessons from and for evolutionary biology. See Karieva et al. 1993, pp. 234-50
210. Uvarov BP. 1931. Insects and climate. R. Entomol. Soc. London 79:174-86
211. van Herk CM, Aptroot A, van Dobben HF. 2002. Long-term monitoring in the Netherlands suggests that lichens respond to global warming. Lichenologist 34:141-54
212. Van Nouhuys S, Lei G. 2004. Parasitoid-host metapopulation dynamics: the causes and consequences of phenological asynchrony. J. Anim. Ecol. 73:526-35
213. Visser ME, Both C. 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc. R. Soc. B 272:2561-69
214. Walther GR, Hughes L, Vitousek P, Stenseth NC. 2005. Consensus on climate change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20:648-49
215. Walther GR, Post E, Convery P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, et al. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-95
216. Wardle P, Coleman MC. 1992. Evidence for rising upper limits of four native New Zealand forest trees. N.Z. J. Bot. 30:303-14
217. Warren MS. 1992. The conservation of British butterflies. In The Ecology of Butterflies in Britain, ed. RLH Dennis, pp. 246-74. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
218. Webb T III, Bartlein PJ. 1992. Global changes during the last 3 million years: climatic controls and biotic responses. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 23:141-73
219. Weiser W, ed. 1973. Effects of Temperature on Ectothermic Organisms. New York: Springer-Verlag
220. Weiss SB, Murphy DD, White RR. 1988. Sun, slope and butterflies: topographic determinants of habitat quality for Euphydryas editha. Ecology 69:1486-96
221. White MA, Nemani RR, Thornton PE, Running SW. 2002. Satellite evidence of phenological differences between urbanized and rural areas of the eastern United States deciduous broadleaf forest. Ecosystems 5:260-73
222. White MA, Running SW, Thornton PE. 1999. The impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest. Int. J. Biometeorol. 42:139-45
223. Wilkinson CR, ed. 2000. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network: Status of Coral Reefs of the World in 2000. Townsville, Qld: Aust. Inst. Mar. Sci.
224. Williamson K. 1975. Birds and climatic change. Bird Study 22:143-64
225. Wilson JW, Gutiérrez D, Martinez D, Agudo R, Monserrat VJ. 2005. Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecol. Lett. 8:1138-46
226. Wilson PR, Ainley DG, Nur N, Jacobs SS, Barton KJ, et al. 2001. Adélie penguin population change in the pacific sector of Antarctica: relation to sea-ice extent and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 213:301-9
227. Winder M, Schindler DE. 2004. Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology 85:2100-6
228. Woodward FI. 1987. Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
229. Alford, RA, Richards SJ. 1999. Global amphibian declines: a problem in applied ecology. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 30:133-65
230. Glynn PW. 1988. El Niño-Southern Oscillation 1982-1983: nearshore population, community, and ecosystem responses. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 19:309-45
231. Ludwig D, Marc M, Haddad B. 2001. Ecology, conservation, and public policy. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 32:481-517
232. Smith SV, Buddemeier RW. 1992. Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 23:89-118
233. Stevens GC, Fox JF. 1991. The causes of treeline. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 22:177-91