Quantitative Assessment of the Importance of Phenotypic Plasticity in Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Bird Populations

PLoS Biology

Volumn 11, Issue 7, 2013, Pages

  Vedder, Oscar ^a   Bouwhuis, Sandra ^a,b   Sheldon, Ben C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b INSTITUTE OF AVIAN RESEARCH VOGELWARTE HELGOLAND   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION; FOOD AVAILABILITY; LIFE HISTORY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NATURAL POPULATION; NONHUMAN; PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; SPECIES EXTINCTION; UNITED KINGDOM;

ADAPTATION, BIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PHENOTYPE;

EID: 84880956598     PISSN: 15449173     EISSN: 15457885     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001605     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.
2. Parmesan C, (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol System 37: 637-669.
3. Thackeray SJ, Sparks TH, Frederiksen M, Burthe S, Bacon PJ, et al. (2010) Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Glob Change Biol 16: 3304-3313.
4. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM, (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332: 53-58.
5. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
6. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araéjo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC, (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102: 8245-8250.
7. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson R, Pauly D, (2009) Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fisheries 10: 235-251.
8. Pulliam HR, (2000) On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecol Lett 3: 349-361.
9. Guisan A, Thuiller W, (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8: 993-1009.
10. Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK, Gray ST, (2009) Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 19685-19692.
11. Lynch M, Lande R (1993) Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. Kareiva P, Kingsolver J, Huey R, editors. Biotic interactions and global change. Sunderland (Massachusetts): Sinauer. pp. 234-250.
12. Burger R, Lynch M, (1995) Evolution and extinction in a changing environment - A quantitative-genetic analysis. Evolution 49: 151-163.
13. Chevin LM, Lande R, Mace GM, (2010) Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory. PloS Biol 8: e1000357 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000357.
14. Pigliucci M (2001) Phenotypic plasticity: beyond nature and nurture. Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press. 333 p.
15. Gienapp P, Teplitsky C, Alho JS, Mills JA, Merilä J, (2008) Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Molec Ecol 17: 167-178.
16. Teplitsky C, Mills JA, Alho JS, Yarrall JW, Merilä J, (2008) Bergmann's rule and climate change revisited: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105: 13492-13496.
17. Hoffmann AA, Sgro CM, (2011) Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature 470: 479-485.
18. Anderson JT, Inouye DW, McKinney AM, Colautti RI, Mitchell-Olds T, (2012) Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change. Proc R Soc Lond B 279: 3843-3852.
19. Clutton-Brock T, Sheldon BC, (2010) Individuals and populations: the role of long-term, individual-based studies of animal in ecology and evolutionary biology. Trends Ecol Evol 25: 562-573.
20. Visser ME, Both C, Lambrechts MM, (2004) Global climate change leads to mistimed avian reproduction. Adv Ecol Res 35: 89-110.
21. Visser ME, Both C, (2005) Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc R Soc Lond B 272: 2561-2569.
22. Charmantier A, McCleery RH, Cole LR, Perrins C, Kruuk LE, Sheldon BC, (2008) Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320: 800-803.
23. Przybylo R, Sheldon BC, Merilä J, (2000) Climatic effects on breeding and morphology: evidence for phenotypic plasticity. J Anim Ecol 69: 395-403.
24. Nussey DH, Wilson AJ, Brommer JE, (2007) The evolutionary ecology of individual phenotypic plasticity in wild populations. J Evol Biol 20: 831-844.
25. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Booth BBB, Brown CC, et al. (2009) UK climate projections science report: climate change projections. Exeter: Meteorological Office Hadley Centre.
26. Pianka ER, (1970) On r- and K-selection. Am Nat 104: 592-597.
27. Charnov E (1993) Life history invariants: some explorations of symmetry in evolutionary ecology. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 167 p.
28. Niel C, Lebreton JD, (2005) Using demographic invariants to detect overharvested bird populations from incomplete data. Conserv Biol 19: 826-835.
29. Garant D, Kruuk LEB, McCleery RH, Sheldon BC, (2007) The effects of environmental heterogeneity on multivariate selection on reproductive traits in female great tits. Evolution 61: 1546-1559.
30. Reed TE, Jenouvrier S, Visser ME, (2013) Penological mismatch strongly affects individual fitness but not population demography in a woodland passerine. J Anim Ecol 82: 131-144.
31. Liedvogel M, Cornwallis CK, Sheldon BC, (2012) Integrating candidate gene and quantitative genetic approaches to understand variation in timing of breeding in wild tit populations. J Evol Biol 25: 813-823.
32. van der Jeugd HP, McCleery R, (2002) Effects of spatial autocorrelation, natal philopatry and phenotypic plasticity on the heritability of laying date. J Evol Biol 15: 380-387.
33. Stopher KV, Walling CA, Morris A, Guinness FE, Clutton-Brock TH, et al. (2012) Shared spatial effects on quantitative genetic parameters: accounting for spatial autocorrelation and home range overlap reduces estimates of heritability in wild red deer. Evolution 66: 2411-2426.
34. Auld JR, Perrins CM, Charmantier A, (2013) Who wears the pants in a mute swan pair? Deciphering the effects of male and female age and identity on breeding success. J Anim Ecol In press.
35. Verhulst S, Nilsson JÅ, (2008) The timing of birds' breeding seasons: a review of experiments that manipulated timing of breeding. Phil Trans R Soc B 363: 399-410.
36. McCleery RH, Perrins CM (1989) Lifetime reproductive success of the great tit, Parus major. Newton I, editor. Lifetime reproduction in birds. San Diego: Academic Press. pp. 35-55.
37. IPCC (2007). Summary for policymakers. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 1-18.
38. Hoffmann AA, Merilä J, (2001) Heritable variation and evolution under favourable and unfavourable conditions. Trends Ecol Evol 14: 96-101.
39. Wilson AJ, Pemberton JM, Pilkington JG, Coltman DW, Mifsud DV, et al. (2006) Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution. PLoS Biol 4: e216 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060216.
40. Husby A, Nussey DH, Visser ME, Wilson AJ, Sheldon BC, Kruuk LEB, (2010) Contrasting patterns of phenotypic plasticity in reproductive traits in two great tit (Parus major) populations. Evolution 64: 2221-2237.
41. Husby A, Visser ME, Kruuk LEB, (2011) Speeding up microevolution: the effects of increasing temperature on selection and genetic variance in a wild bird population. PLoS Biol 9: e1000585 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000585.
42. Garant D, Hadfield JD, Kruuk LEB, Sheldon BC, (2008) Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population. Molec Ecol 17: 179-188.
43. Visser ME, Holleman LJM, Gienapp P, (2006) Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird. Oecologia 147: 164-172.
44. Phillimore AB, Stålhandske S, Smithers RJ, Bernard R, (2012) Dissecting the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation to the phenology of a butterfly and its host plants. Am Nat 180: 655-670.
45. Both C, van Asch M, Bijlsma RG, van den Burg AB, Visser ME, (2009) Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations? J Anim Ecol 78: 73-83.
46. Wolkovich EM, Cook BI, Allen JM, Crimmins TM, Betancourt JL, et al. (2012) Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485: 494-497.
47. Gienapp P, Lof M, Reed TE, McNamara J, Verhulst S, et al. (2013) Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change? Phil Trans R Soc B 368: 20120289.
48. Reed TE, Grøtan V, Jenouvrier S, Sæther BE, Visser ME, (2013) Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch. Science 340: 488-491.
49. Morris WF, Pfister CA, Tuljapurkar S, Haridas CV, Boggs CL, et al. (2008) Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology 89: 19-25.
50. Gosler A (1993) The great tit. London: Paul Hamlyn.
51. Bouwhuis S, Sheldon BC, Verhulst S, Charmantier A, (2009) Great tits growing old: selective disappearance and the partitioning of senescence to stages within the breeding cycle. Proc R Soc Lond B 276: 2769-2777.
52. Lande R, Arnold SJ, (1983) The measurement of selection on correlated characters. Evolution 37: 1210-1226.
53. Estes S, Arnold SJ, (2007) Resolving the paradox of stasis: models with stabilizing selection explain evolutionary divergence on all timescales. Am Nat 169: 227-244.
54. Perrins CM, (1965) Population fluctuations and clutch-size in the great tit, Parus Major L. J Anim Ecol 34: 601-647.
55. Visser ME, Holleman LJM, (2001) Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology. Proc R Soc Lond B 268: 289-294.
56. Wilkin TA, King LE, Sheldon BC, (2009) Habitat quality, nestling diet, and provisioning behaviour in great tits Parus major. J Avian Biol 40: 135-145.
57. van de Pol MV, Wright J, (2009) A simple method for distinguishing within- versus between-subject effects using mixed models. Anim Behav 77: 753-758.
58. Minot EO, Perrins CM, (1986) Interspecific interference competition - Nest sites for blue and great tits. J Anim Ecol 55: 331-350.
59. Rasbash J, Steele F, Browne W, Prosser B (2005) A user's guide to MLwiN, v. 2.0. London: Centre for multilevel modelling, University of Bristol.
60. Browne WJ, Goldstein H, Rasbash J, (2007) Multiple memberships multiple classification (MMMC) models. Stat Model 1: 103-124.