Rapid decisions from experience

Cognition

Volumn 131, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 181-194

  Zeigenfuse, Matthew D ^a   Pleskac, Timothy J ^b   Liu, Taosheng ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Decision making; Decisions from experience; Prospect theory; Rank dependent utility theory; Sequential sampling

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; FEMALE; GAMBLING; HUMAN; MALE; PHYSIOLOGY; PSYCHOLOGY; PSYCHOMOTOR PERFORMANCE; REACTION TIME; RECALL; YOUNG ADULT;

CHOICE BEHAVIOR; DECISION MAKING; FEMALE; GAMBLING; HUMANS; MALE; MENTAL RECALL; PSYCHOMOTOR PERFORMANCE; REACTION TIME; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84894124673     PISSN: 00100277     EISSN: 18737838     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2013.12.012     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Barron G., Erev I. Small feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2003, 16:215-233.
2. Bernoulli D. Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica 1954, 22:23-36.
3. Busemeyer J.R. Choice behavior in a sequential decision-making task. Organizational Behavior & Human Performance 1982, 29:175-207.
4. Busemeyer J.R. Decision making under uncertainty: A comparison of simple scalability, fixed-sample, and sequential-sampling models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition 1985, 11:538-564.
5. Busemeyer J.R., Diederich A. Cognitive modeling 2010, SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA.
6. Busemeyer J.R., Jessup R.K., Johnson J.G., Townsend J.T. Building bridges between neural models and complex decision making behaviour. Neural Networks 2006, 19:1047-1058.
7. Busemeyer J.R., Townsend J.T. Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. Psychological Review 1993, 100:432-459.
8. Casella G., Berger R.L. Statistical inference 2002, Duxbury, Pacific Grove, CA. 2nd ed.
9. Diecidue E., Wakker P.P. On the intuition of rank-dependent utility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2001, 23:281-298.
10. Diederich A., Busemeyer J.R. Conflict and the stochastic-dominance principle of decision making. Psychological Science 1999, 10:353-359.
11. Ert E., Erev I. Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion, chasing, and regret in decisions from experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2007, 20:305-322.
12. Fox C.R., Hadar L. "Decisions from experience"=Sampling error plus prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004). Judgment and Decision Making Journal 2006, 1:159-161.
13. Glaser C., Trommershäuser J., Mamassian P., Maloney L.T. Comparison of the distortion of probability information in decision under risk and in an equivalent visual task. Psychological Science 2012, 23:419-426.
14. Gold J.I., Shadlen M.N. The neural basis of decision making. Annual Review of Neuroscience 2007, 30:535-574.
15. Gonzalez C., Dutt V. Instance-based learning: Integrating sampling and repeated decisions from experience. Psychological Review 2011, 118:523.
16. Hau R., Pleskac T.J., Hertwig R. Decisions from experience and statistical probabilities: Why they trigger different choices than a priori probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2010, 23:48-68.
17. Hau R., Pleskac T.J., Kiefer J., Hertwig R. The description-experience gap in risky choice: The role of sample size and experienced probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2008, 21:493-518.
18. Heathcote A., Brown S., Mewhort D.J.K. Quantile maximum likelihood estimation of response time distributions. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 2002, 9:394-401.
19. Hertwig R., Barron G., Weber E.U., Erev I. Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice. Psychological Science 2004, 15:534-539.
20. Hertwig R., Erev I. The description-experience gap in risky choice. Trends in Cognitive Science 2009, 13:517-523.
21. Hills T.T., Hertwig R. Information search in decisions from experience: Do our patterns of sampling foreshadow our decisions?. Psychological Science 2010, 21:1787-1792.
22. Hogarth R.M., Einhorn H.J. Order effects in belief updating - The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology 1992, 24:1-55.
23. Hothorn T., Bretz F., Westfall P. Simultaneous inference in general parametric models. Biometrical Journal 2008, 50:346-363.
24. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979, 47:263-292.
25. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist 1984, 39:341-350.
26. Krajbich I., Armel C., Rangel A. Visual fixations and the computation and comparison of value in simple choice. Nature Neuroscience 2010, 13:1292-1298.
27. Krajbich I., Lu D., Camerer C., Rangel A. The attentional drift-diffusion model extends to simple purchasing decisions. Frontiers in Psychology 2012, 3.
28. Krajbich I., Rangel A. Multialternative drift-diffusion model predicts the relationship between visual fixations and choice in value-based decisions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2011, 13852-13857.
29. Laming D.R.J. Information theory of choice-reaction times 1968, Academic Press, New York, NY.
30. Link S.W., Heath R.A. Sequential theory of psychological discrimination. Psychometrika 1975, 40:77-105.
31. Loftus G.R. On interpretation of interactions. Memory & Cognition 1978, 6:312-319.
32. Lopes L.L. Between hope and fear - The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 1987, 20:255-295.
33. Lotto R.B., Purves D. An empirical explanation of color contrast. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2000, 97:12834-12839.
34. Luce R.D. Utility of gains and losses: Measurement-theoretical and experimental approaches 2000, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ.
35. Ludvig E.A., Madan C.R., Spetch M.L. Extreme outcomes sway risky decisions from experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2013, 10.1002/bdm.1792.
36. Milosavljevic M., Malmaud J., Huth A., Koch C., Rangel A. The drift diffusion model can account for the accuracy and reaction time of value-based choices under high and low time pressure. Judgment and Decision Making 2010, 5:437-449.
37. Müller-Lyer F.C. Optische urteilstäuschungen. Archiv für Anatomie und Physiologie, Physiologische Abteilung 1889, 2:263-270.
38. Niv Y., Edlund J.A., Dayan P., O'Doherty J.P. Neural prediction errors reveal a risk-sensitive reinforcement-learning process in the human brain. The Journal of Neuroscience 2012, 32:551-562.
39. Palmer J., Huk A., Shadlen M.N. The effect of stimulus strength on the speed and accuracy of a perceptual decision. Journal of Vision 2005, 5:376-404.
40. Pham M.T. Emotion and rationality: A critical review and interpretation of empirical evidence. Review of General Psychology 2007, 11:155-178.
41. Prelec D. The probability weighting function. Econometrica 1998, 66:497-527.
42. Quiggin J. A theory of anticipated risk. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 1982, 3:323-343.
43. Rakow T., Demes K.A., Newell B.R. Biased samples not mode of presentation: Re-examining the apparent underweighting of rare events in experience-based choice. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 2008, 106:168-179.
44. Rakow T., Newell B.R. Degrees of uncertainty: An overview and framework for future research on experience-based choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2010, 23:1-14.
45. Ratcliff R. Theory of memory retrieval. Psychological Review 1978, 85:59-108.
46. Ratcliff R., McKoon G. The diffusion decision model: Theory and data for two-choice decision tasks. Neural Computation 2008, 20:873-922.
47. Roe R.M., Busemeyer J.R., Townsend J.T. Multialternative decision field theory: A dynamic connectionist model of decision making. Psychological Review 2001, 108:370-392.
48. Savage L.J. The foundations of statistics 1954, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
49. Shadlen M.N., Kiani R., Hanks T., Churchland A.K. Neurobiology of decision making: An intentional framework. Better than conscious? Decision making, the human mind, and implications for institutions 2008, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. C. Engel, W. Singer (Eds.).
50. Shafir S., Reich T., Tsur E., Erev I., Lotem A. Perceptual accuracy and conflicting effects of certainty on risk-taking behaviour. Nature 2008, 453:917-920.
51. Stone M. Models for choice-reaction time. Psychometrika 1960, 25:251-260.
52. Summerfield C., Tsetsos K. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: Neural and computational mechanisms. Frontiers in Neuroscience 2012, 6.
53. Symmonds M., Dolan R.J. The neurobiology of preference. Neuroscience of preference and choice: Cognitive and neural mechanisms 2012, 4-23. Elsevier, Waltham, MA. R.J. Dolan, T. Sharot (Eds.).
54. Thaler R.H., Tversky A., Kahneman D., Schwartz A. The effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking: An experimental test. Quarterly Journal of Economics 1997, 112:647-661.
55. Tsetsos K., Chater N., Usher M. Salience driven value integration explains decision biases and preference reversal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012, 109:9659-9664.
56. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1992, 5:297-323.
57. Ungemach C., Chater N., Stewart N. Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)?. Psychological Science 2009, 20:473-479.
58. Usher M., McClelland J.L. Loss aversion and inhibition in dynamical models of multialternative choice. Psychological Review 2004, 111:757-769.
59. von Neumann J., Morgenstern O. Theory of games and economic behavior 1947, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. 2nd ed.
60. Wagenmaker E.-J., Krypotos A.M., Criss A.H., Iverson G. On the interpretation of removable interactions: A survey of the field 33 years after Loftus. Memory & Cognition 2012, 40:145-160.
61. Wakker P.P. Prospect theory for risk and ambiguity 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
62. Wald A., Wolfowitz J. Bayes solutions of sequential decision problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 1949, 35:99-102.
63. Weber E.U. From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. Psychological Bulletin 1994, 115:228-242.
64. Weber E.U., Shafir S., Blais A.R. Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Risk as variance or coefficient of variation. Psychological Review 2004, 111:430-445.