Reconciling rationality with deterrence: A re-examination of the logical foundations of deterrence theory

Journal of Theoretical Politics

Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2004, Pages 107-141

  Zagare, Frank C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

Author keywords

Arms control; Deterrence and rationality; US foreign policy

Indexed keywords

EID: 1842632556     PISSN: 09516298     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0951629804041117     Document Type: Article

References (103)

1. Achen, Christopher H. (1987) 'A Darwinian View of Deterrence', in Jacek Kugler and Frank C. Zagare (eds) Exploring the Stability of Deterrence. Denver, CO: Lynne Rienner.
2. Betts, Richard K. (1987) Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance. Washington, DC: Brookings.
3. Brodie, Bernard (1959) Strategy in the Missile Age. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
4. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (1981) The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
5. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (1985) 'Toward a Scientific Understanding of International Conflict: A Personal View', International Studies Quarterly 29: 121-36.
6. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and James D. Morrow (1999) 'Sorting Through the Wealth of Notions', International Security 24: 56-73.
7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, James D. Morrow and Ethan R. Zorick (1997) 'Capabilities, Perception and Escalation', American Political Science Review 91: 15-27.
8. Bundy, McGeorge (1983) 'The Bishops and the Bomb', New York Review of Books (16 June): 3-8.
9. Cashman, Greg (1993) What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. New York: Lexington Books.
10. Daalder, Ivo H. (1991) The Nature and Practice of Flexible Response: NATO Strategy and Theater Nuclear Forces Since 1967. New York: Columbia University Press.
11. Danilovic, Vesna (2001) 'The Sources of Threat Credibility in Extended Deterrence', Journal of Conflict Resolution 45: 34-69.
12. Danilovic, Vesna (2002) When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict among Major Powers. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
13. Ellsberg, Daniel (1959) "The Theory and Practice of Blackmail', Lecture at the Lowell Institute, Boston, MA, 10 March. Reprinted in Oran R. Young, ed. (1975). Bargaining: Formal Theories of Negotiation. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.
14. Fearon, James D. (1994a) 'Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model', Journal of Conflict Resolution 38: 236-69.
15. Fearon, James D. (1994b) 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review 88: 577-92.
16. Freedman, Lawrence (1989) The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 2nd edn. New York: St Martin's.
17. Friedman, Thomas L. (2001) 'Who's Crazy Here?', The New York Times, 15 May: A27.
18. Gacek, Christopher M. (1994) The Logic of Force: The Dilemma of Limited War in American Foreign Policy. New York: Columbia University Press.
19. Gaddis, John Lewis (1986) 'The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System', International Security 10: 99-142.
20. Gaddis, John Lewis (1997) We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. New York: Oxford University Press.
21. Gauthier, David (1984) 'Deterrence, Maximization, and Rationality', Ethics 94: 474-95.
22. Gibbons, Robert (1992) Game Theory for Applied Economists. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
23. Geller, Daniel S. and J. David Singer (1998) Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
24. Glaser, Charles (1989) 'Why Do Strategists Disagree about the Requirements of Strategic Nuclear Deterrence?', In Lynn Eden and Steven E. Miller (eds) Nuclear Arguments. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
25. Gray, Colin S. (1974) 'The Urge to Compete: Rationales for Arms Racing', World Politics 26: 207-33.
26. Harsanyi, John C. (1974) 'Communications', American Political Science Review 68: 1694-5.
27. Harvey, Frank P. (1998) 'Rigor Mortis, or Rigor, More Tests: Necessity, Sufficiency, and Deterrence Logic', International Studies Quarterly 42: 675-707.
28. Howard, Nigel (1971) Paradoxes of Rationality: Theory of Metagames and Political Behavior. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
29. Huth, Paul K. (1988) Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
30. Huth, Paul K. (1999) 'Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates', Annual Review of Political Science 2: 61-84.
31. Intriligator, Michael D. and Dagobert L. Brito (1981) 'Nuclear Proliferation and the Probability of Nuclear War', Public Choice 37: 247-60.
32. Intriligator, Michael D. and Dagobert L. Brito (1984) 'Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?', Journal of Conflict Resolution 28: 63-84.
33. Jervis, Robert (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
34. Jervis, Robert (1978) 'Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma', World Politics 30: 167-214.
35. Jervis, Robert (1979) 'Deterrence Theory Revisited', World Politics 31: 289-324.
36. Jervis, Robert (1985) 'Introduction', in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein (eds) Psychology and Deterrence. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
37. Jervis, Robert (1988) 'The Utility of Nuclear Weapons', International Security 13: 80-90.
38. Kagan, Donald (1995) On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace. New York: Doubleday.
39. Kahn, Herman (1962) Thinking About the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press.
40. Kilgour, D. Marc and Frank C. Zagare (1991) 'Credibility, Uncertainty, and Deterrence', American Journal of Political Science 35: 303-34.
41. Krauthammer, Charles (2001) 'Dense on Missile Defense', The Washington Post, 11 May: A45.
42. Krauthammer, Charles (2002) 'The Terrible Logic of Nukes', Time, 2 September: 84.
43. Kydd, Andrew (1997) 'Game Theory and the Spiral Model', World Politics 49: 371-400.
44. Lebow, Richard Ned (1981) Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
45. Lebow, Richard Ned (1984) 'Windows of Opportunity: Do States Jump Through Them?', International Security 9: 147-86.
46. Legro, Jeffrey W. and Andrew Moravsik (1999) 'Is Anybody Still a Realist?', International Security 24: 5-55.
47. Levy, Jack S. (1988) 'When Do Deterrent Threats Work?', British Journal of Political Science 18: 485-512.
48. Martin, Lisa (1999) The Contributions of Rational Choice: A Defense of Pluralism', International Security 24: 74-83.
49. Mearsheimer, John J. (1983) Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
50. Mearsheimer, John J. (1990) 'Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War', International Security 15: 5-56.
51. Mearsheimer, John J. (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton.
52. Morgenthau, Hans J. (1973) Politics Among Nations, 5th edn. New York: Knopf.
53. Morrow, James D. (1994) Game Theory for Political Scientists. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
54. Morrow, James D. (2000) 'The Ongoing Game-Theoretic Revolution', in Manus I. Midlarsky (ed.) Handbook of War Studies II. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
55. Nalebuff, Barry (1986) 'Brinkmanship and Nuclear Deterrence: The Neutrality of Escalation', Conflict Management and Peace Science 9: 19-30.
56. Nash, John (1951) 'Non-cooperative Games', Annals of Mathematics 54: 286-95.
57. National Academy of Sciences (1997) The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
58. Niou, Emerson M.S. and Peter C. Ordeshook (1999) 'The Return of the Luddites', International Security 24: 84-96.
59. O'Neill, Barry (1992) 'Are Game Models of Deterrence Biassed Towards Arms-Building? Wagner on Rationality and Misperception', Journal of Theoretical Politics 4(4): 459-77.
60. Organski, A.F.K. and Jacek Kugler (1980) The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
61. Powell, Robert (1985) The Theoretical Foundations of Strategic Nuclear Deterrence', Political Science Quarterly 100: 75-96.
62. Powell, Robert (1987) 'Crisis Bargaining, Escalation, and MAD', American Political Science Review 81: 717-35.
63. Powell, Robert (1999) The Modeling Enterprise and Security Studies', International Security 24: 97-106.
64. Quackenbush, Stephen L. (2003) 'General Deterrence and International Conflict: Bridging the Formal/Quantitative Divide', Ph.D. thesis, University at Buffalo, SUNY, Buffalo, NY.
65. Quackenbush, Stephen L. and Frank C. Zagare (2001) Territorial Disputes and General Deterrence', Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, 30 August-2 September.
66. Quester, George (1966) Deterrence Before Hiroshima. New York: Wiley.
67. Quinlan, Michael (2000/2001) 'How Robust is India-Pakistan Deterrence?', Survival 42:141-54.
68. Rapoport, Anatol (1968) 'Editor's Introduction', in Carl von Clausewitz On War. Harmondsworth, England: Penguin Books.
69. Rapoport, Anatol (1992) 'Comments on "Rationality and Misperceptions in Deterrence Theory" ', Journal of Theoretical Politics 4: 479-84.
70. Schelling, Thomas C. (1960) The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
71. Schelling, Thomas C. (1966) Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
72. Scoville, Herbert, Jr (1981) MX: Prescription for Disaster. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
73. Selten, Reinhard (1975) 'A Re-examination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games', International Journal of Game Theory 4: 25-55.
74. Senese, Paul D. and Stephen L. Quackenbush (2003) 'Sowing the Seeds of Conflict: The Effect of Dispute Settlements on Durations of Peace', Journal of Politics 65: 696-717.
75. Singh, Jaswant (1998) 'Against Nuclear Apartheid', Foreign Affairs 77: 41-52.
76. Smoke, Richard (1987) National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
77. Snyder, Glenn H. (1972) 'Crisis Bargaining', in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research. New York: Free Press.
78. Snyder, Glenn H. and Paul Diesing (1977) Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
79. Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan C. Stam III, Mark Abdollahian, Carole Alsharabati, Brian Efird and A.F.K. Organski (2000) Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House.
80. Trachtenberg, Marc (1990/1991) The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914', International Security 15: 120-50.
81. Traclitenberg, Marc (1991) History and Strategy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
82. Van Evera, Stephen (1984) The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War', International Security 9: 58-107.
83. Van Evera, Stephen (1990/91) 'Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War', International Security 15: 7-57.
84. Van Gelder, Timothy J. (1989) 'Credible Threats and Usable Weapons: Some Dilemmas of Deterrence', Philosophy and Public Affairs 18: 158-83.
85. Walt, Stephen M. (1999a) 'Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies', International Security 23: 5-48.
86. Walt, Stephen M. (1999b) 'A Model Disagreement', International Security 24: 115-30.
87. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1964) The Stability of the Bipolar World', Daedalus 93: 881-909.
88. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979) Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
89. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1981) The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better', Adelphi Paper No. 171. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
90. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1990) 'Nuclear Myths and Political Realities', American Political Sciences Review 84: 731-45.
91. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1993) The Emerging World Structure of International Politics', International Security 18: 44-79.
92. Wohlforth, William C. (2000) 'Correspondence: Brother, Can You Spare a Paradigm? (Or, Was Anybody Still a Realist?)', International Security 25: 182-4.
93. Young, Oran R., ed. (1975) Bargaining: Formal Theories of Negotiation. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.
94. Zagare, Frank C. (1987) The Dynamics of Deterrence. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
95. Zagare, Frank C. (1990) 'Rationality and Deterrence', World Politics 42: 238-60.
96. Zagare, Frank C. (1996a) 'Classical Deterrence Theory: A Critical Assessment', International Interactions 21: 365-87.
97. Zagare, Frank C. (1996b) The Rites of Passage: Parity, Nuclear Deterrence and Power Transitions', in Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke (eds) Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of 'The War Ledger'. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
98. Zagare, Frank C. (1999) 'All Mortis, No Rigor', International Security 24: 107-14.
99. Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour (1993a) 'Asymmetric Deterrence', International Studies Quarterly 37: 1-27.
100. Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour (1993b) 'Modeling "Massive Retaliation'", Conflict Management and Peace Science 13: 61-86.
101. Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour (1995) 'Assessing Competing Defense Postures: The Strategic Implications of "Flexible Response" ', World Politics 47: 373-417.
102. Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour (1998) 'Deterrence Theory and the Spiral Model Revisited', Journal of Theoretical Politics 10: 59-87.
103. Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour (2000) Perfect Deterrence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.