Robust Strengthening and westward shift of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation during 1979-2012: A comparison of 7 sets of reanalysis data and 26 CMIP5 models

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 9, 2016, Pages 3097-3118

  Ma, Shuangmei ^a,b   Zhou, Tianjun ^a,c  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

^c JOINT CENTER FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES   (China)

Author keywords

Atmospheric circulation; Circulation dynamics; Climate models; Climate variability; Models and modeling; Physical meteorology and climatology; Trends; Variability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; METEOROLOGY; NICKEL; OCEANOGRAPHY; SEA LEVEL; WIND EFFECTS;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; ENSEMBLE SIMULATION; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; TRENDS; VARIABILITY; WALKER CIRCULATION;

CLIMATE MODELS;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SYSTEM; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TREND ANALYSIS; WALKER CIRCULATION;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EQUATORIAL); PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

POMATIOPSIS CALIFORNICA;

EID: 84966430326     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0398.1     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Allan, R., and T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004. J. Climate, 19, 5816-5842, doi:10.1175/JCLI3937.1.
2. Annamalai, H., J.M. Slingo, K. R. Sperber, and K. Hodges, 1999: The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1157-1186, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1157:TMEAVO>2.0.CO;2.
3. Bayr, T., D. Dommenget, T. Martin, and S. B. Power, 2014: The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability. Climate Dyn., 43, 2747-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y.
4. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2.
5. Bretherton, C. S., M. Widmann, V. P. Dymnikov, J. M. Wallace, and I. Bladé, 1999: The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J. Climate, 12, 1990-2009, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2.
6. Cane, M.A., A.C.Clement, A.Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakon, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, and R. Murtugudde, 1997: Twentiethcentury sea surface temperature trends. Science, 275, 957-960, doi:10.1126/science.275.5302.957.
7. Chen, J., A. D. Del Genio, B. E. Carlson, and M. G. Bosilovich, 2008: The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part II: Pacific pan-decadal variability. J. Climate, 21, 2634-2650, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2012.1.
8. Clement, A. C., R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1996: An ocean dynamical thermostat. J. Climate, 9, 2190-2196, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2190:AODT>2.0.CO;2.
9. Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci., 3, 391-397, doi:10.1038/ngeo868.
10. Compo, G. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776.
11. de Boisséson, E., M. A. Balmaseda, S. Abdalla, E. Källén, and P. A. E. M. Janssen, 2014: How robust is the recent strengthening of the tropical Pacific trade winds? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4398-4405, doi:10.1002/2014GL060257.
12. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
13. DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming. J. Climate, 24, 909-926, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3659.1.
14. Deser, C., and J. M. Wallace, 1990: Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 3, 1254-1281, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1254: LSACFO>2.0.CO;2.
15. Deser, C., A. S. Phillip, and M. A. Alexander, 2010: Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321.
16. DiNezio, P. N., A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Solden, B. P. Kirtman, and S. K. Lee, 2009: Climate response of the equatorial Pacific to global warming. J. Climate, 22, 4873-4892, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2982.1.
17. DiNezio, P. N., A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Reconciling differing views of tropical Pacific climate change. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 91, 141-142, doi:10.1029/2010EO160001.
18. DiNezio, P. N., G. A. Vecchi, and A. C. Clement, 2013: Detectability of changes in theWalker circulation in response to global warming. J. Climate, 26, 4038-4048, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00531.1.
19. Dong, B. W., and R. Y. Lu, 2013: Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific in the late 1990s. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 247-262, doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2069-9.
20. Dong, L., and T. Zhou, 2014: The formation of the recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated climate impacts: A competition of global warming, IPO, and AMO. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 11 272-11 287, doi:10.1002/2013JD021395.
21. Ebita, A., and Coauthors, 2011: The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis "JRA-55": An interim report. SOLA, 7, 149-152, doi:10.2151/sola.2011-038.
22. England, M. H., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent intensification of winddriven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 222-227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
23. Feng, L., and T. Zhou, 2012: Water vapor transport for summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: Multidata set analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D20114, doi:10.1029/2011JD017012.
24. Feng, M., C. Böning, A. Biastoch, E. Behrens, E. Weller, and Y. Masumoto, 2011: The reversal of the multi-decadal trends of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds, and the Indonesian Throughflow and Leeuwin Current transports. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11604, doi:10.1029/2011GL047291.
25. Garcia, S. R., and M. T. Kayano, 2008: Climatological aspects of Hadley, Walker and monsoon circulations in two phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 91, 117-127, doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0301-9.
26. Gastineau, G., L. Li, and H. L. Treut, 2009: The Hadley and Walker circulation changes in global warming conditions described by idealized atmospheric simulations. J. Climate, 22, 3993-4013, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2794.1.
27. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
28. Harrison, D. E., and A. M. Chiodi, 2015: Multi-decadal variability and trends in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific fisheries implications. Deep-Sea Res. II, 113, 9-21, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.12.020.
29. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1.
30. Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and G. Gu, 2009: Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17808, doi:10.1029/2009GL040000.
31. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
32. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.
33. Kinter, J. L., III, M. J. Fennessy, V. Krishnamurthy, and L. Marx, 2004: An evaluation of the apparent interdecadal shift in the tropical divergent circulation in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J. Climate, 17, 349-361, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0349: AEOTAI>2.0.CO;2.
34. 2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 8, 2181-2199, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2181:TMROTT>2.0.CO;2.
35. Kociuba, G., and S. B. Power, 2015: Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the Walker circulation: Implications for projections. J. Climate, 28, 20-35, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1.
36. Kosaka, Y., and S. P. Xie, 2013: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501, 403-407, doi:10.1038/nature12534.
37. Kucharski, F., F. S. Syed, A. Burhan, I. Farah, and A. Gohar, 2015: Tropical Atlantic influence on Pacific variability and mean state in the twentieth century in observations and CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 44, 881-896, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2228-z.
38. Kucharski, F., and Coauthors, 2016: Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability. ClimateDyn., 46, 2337-2351, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2705-z.
39. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, and M. A. Cane, 1999: On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284, 2156-2159, doi:10.1126/science.284.5423.2156.
40. L'Heureux, M. L., S. Lee, and B. Lyon, 2013: Recent multidecadal strengthening of theWalker circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 571-576, doi:10.1038/nclimate1840.
41. Li, G., and B. Ren, 2012: Evidence for strengthening of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface wind speed during 1979-2001. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 107, 59-72, doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0463-3.
42. Lin, R., T. Zhou, and Q. Yun, 2014: Evaluation of global monsoon precipitation changes based on five reanalysis datasets. J. Climate, 27, 1271-1289, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00215.1.
43. Liu, J., B.Wang, M. A. Cane, S.Y.Yim, and J. Y. Lee, 2013:Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 493, 656-659, doi:10.1038/nature11784.
44. Luo, J. J., W. Sasaki, and Y. Masumoto, 2012: Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 18 701-18 706, doi:10.1073/pnas.1210239109.
45. Ma, S., and T. Zhou, 2014: Changes of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation simulated by two versions of FGOALS model. Sci. China Earth Sci., 57, 2165-2180, doi:10.1007/s11430-014-4902-8.
46. McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, M. F. Stuecker, M. H. England, M. Merrifield, F.-F. Jin, and Y. Chikamoto, 2014: Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 888-892, doi:10.1038/nclimate2330.
47. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, J. T. Fasullo, A. Hu, and K. E. Trenberth, 2011: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nat. Climate Change, 1, 360-364, doi:10.1038/nclimate1229.
48. Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, J. M. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, and K. E. Trenberth, 2013: Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7298-7310, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1.
49. Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N. S. Keenlyside, V. A. Semenov, and T. Martin, 2012: Twentieth century Walker circulation change: Data analysis and model experiments. Climate Dyn., 38, 1757-1773, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1047-8.
50. Merrifield, M. A., 2011: A shift in western tropical Pacific sea level trends during the 1990s. J. Climate, 24, 4126-4138, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1.
51. Mitas, C. M., and A. Clement, 2005: Has the Hadley cell been strengthening in recent decades? Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03809, doi:10.1029/2004GL021765.
52. Onogi, K., and Coauthors, 2007: The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432, doi:10.2151/jmsj.85.369.
53. Oort, A. H., and J. J. Yienger, 1996: Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO. J. Climate, 9, 2751-2767, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2751: OIVITH>2.0.CO;2.
54. Philander, S. G., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 293 pp.
55. Power, S. B., and I. N. Smith, 2007: Weakening of the Walker circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030854.
56. Power, S. B., and G. Kociuba, 2011: What caused the observed twentiethcentury weakening of the Walker circulation? J. Climate, 24, 6501-6514, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4101.1.
57. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
58. Rienecker, M. M., and Coauthors, 2011: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. J. Climate, 24, 3624-3648, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1.
59. Sandeep, S., F. Stordal, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and G. P. Compo, 2014: Pacific Walker Circulation variability in coupled and uncoupled climate models. Climate Dyn., 43, 103-117, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2135-3.
60. Schwendike, J., P. Govekar, M. J. Reeder, R. Wardle, G. J. Berry, and C. Jakob, 2014: Local partitioning of the overturning circulation in the tropics and the connection to the Hadley and Walker circulations. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1322-1339, doi:10.1002/2013JD020742.
61. Sohn, B. J., S. W. Yeh, J. Schmetz, and H. J. Song, 2013: Observational evidences of Walker circulation change over the last 30 years contrasting with GCM results. Climate Dyn., 40, 1721-1732, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1484-z.
62. Solomon, A., and M. Newman, 2012: Reconciling disparate 20th century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 691-699, doi:10.1038/nclimate1591.
63. Tanaka, H. L., N. Ishizaki, and A. Kitoh, 2004: Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus, 56A, 250-269, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00049.x.
64. Thompson, D., J.Wallace, and G. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1018: AMITEC>2.0.CO;2.
65. Thompson, D. M., J. E. Cole, G. T. Shen, A. W. Tudhope, and G. A. Meehl, 2015: Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength. Nat. Geosci., 8, 117-121, doi:10.1038/ngeo2321.
66. Tokinaga, H., S. P. Xie, C. Deser, Y. Kosaka, and Y. M. Okumura, 2012a: Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature, 491, 439-443, doi:10.1038/nature11576.
67. Tokinaga, H., S. P. Xie, and A. Timmermann, 2012b: Regional patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific climate change: Evidence of the Walker circulation weakening. J. Climate, 25, 1689-1710, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00263.1.
68. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20, 4316-4340, doi:10.1175/JCLI4258.1.
69. Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. A. Held, A. Leetma, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76, doi:10.1038/nature04744.
70. Wang, B., J. Liu, H. J. Kim, P. J. Webster, and S. Y. Yim, 2012: Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008). Climate Dyn., 39, 1123-1135, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z.
71. Wang, B., J. Liu, H. J. Kim, P. J. Webster, and S. Y. Yim, and B. Xiang, 2013: Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 5347-5352, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219405110.
72. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 451-14 510, doi:10.1029/97JC02719.
73. Williams, A. P., and C. Funk, 2011: A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Climate Dyn., 37, 2417-2435, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y.
74. Xie, S. P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966-986, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.
75. Yu, B., and G. J. Boer, 2002: The roles of radiation and dynamical processes in the El Niño-like response to global warming. Climate Dyn., 19, 539-553, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0244-x.
76. Yu, B., and F. W. Zwiers, 2010: Changes in equatorial atmospheric zonal circulations in recent decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05701, doi:10.1029/2009GL042071.
77. Yu, B., and F. W. Zwiers, G. J. Boer, and M. F. Ting, 2012: Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble. Climate Dyn., 39, 2403-2419, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1372-6.
78. Zhang, M., and H. Song, 2006: Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12701, doi:10.1029/2006GL025942.
79. Zhou, T., R. Yu, H. Li, and B. Wang, 2008: Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent halfcentury. J. Climate, 21, 3833-3852, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2067.1.