A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 37, Issue 11-12, 2011, Pages 2417-2435

  Williams, A Park ^a   Funk, Chris ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Drought; East Africa; Indian Ocean; Precipitation; Tropical warm pool

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONDENSATION; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TREND ANALYSIS; WALKER CIRCULATION; WARM POOL; WARMING; WATER VAPOR;

AFRICA; INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL); PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 81455134303     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Abram NJ, Gagan MK, Cole JE, Hantoro WS, Mudelsee M (2008) Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Nat Geosci 1: 849-853.
2. Adler RF, Susskind J, Huffman GJ et al (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydromet 4: 1147-1167.
3. Barlow M, Hoell A, Colby F (2007) Examining the wintertime response to tropical convection over the Indian Ocean by modifying convective heating in a full atmospheric model. Geophys Res Let 34: L19702.
4. Barnett TP, Pierce DW, AchutaRao KM, Gleckler PJ, Santer BD, Gregory JM, Washington WM (2005) Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans. Science 309: 284-287.
5. Camberlin P, Philippon N (2002) The east African March-May rainy season: associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968-1997 period. J Climate 15: 1002-1019.
6. Cane MA, Clement AC, Kaplan A et al (1997) Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends. Science 275: 957-960.
7. Chen J, Carlson BE, Del Genio AD (2002) Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general circulation in the 1990s. Science 295: 838-841.
8. Christiansen JH, Hewitson A, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections, ch. 11. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 849-940.
9. Clement A, Seager R, Cane MA, Zebiak SE (1996) An ocean dynamical thermostat. J Climate 9: 2190-2196.
10. Cobb KM, Charles CD, Cheng H, Edwards RL (2003) El Niño/Southern oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature 424: 271-276.
11. Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD (2010) Removing ENSO-related variations from the climate record. J Climate. doi: 10. 1175/2009JCLI2735. 1.
12. Diaz HF, Markgraf V (1992) El Niño: historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the southern oscillation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
13. Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P, Ropelewski CF (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. Int J Climatol 28: 1627-1638.
14. Douglass DH, Christy JR, Pearson BD, Singer SF (2008) A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int J Climatol 28: 1693-1701.
15. Du Y, Xie SP (2008) Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models. Geophys Res Lett 35: 391-405.
16. Funk CC, Brown ME (2009) Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security. Food Sec 1: 271-289.
17. Funk C, Michaelsen J (2004) A simplified diagnostic model of orographic rainfall for enhancing satellite-based rainfall estimates in data-poor regions. J Appl Meteorol 43: 1366-1378.
18. Funk C, Verdin J (2003) Comparing satellite rainfall estimates and reanalysis precipitation fields with station data for western Kenya. In: Dijks D, Rembold F, Nègre T et al (eds) Proceedings of the JRC-FAO international workshop. European Commission, Nairobi.
19. Funk C, Verdin JP (2009) Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network. In: Gebremichael M, Hossain F (eds) Satellite rainfall applications for surface hydrology. Springer, Netherlands, pp 295-320.
20. Funk C, Michaelsen J, Verdin J et al (2003) The collaborative historical African rainfall model: description and evaluation. Int J Climatol 23: 47-66.
21. Funk C, Senay G, Asfaw A et al (2005) Recent drought tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-subtropical eastern Africa. US Agency for International Development, Washington.
22. Funk C, Husak G, Michaelsen J, Love T, Pedreros D (2007) Third generation rainfall climatologies: satellite rainfall and topography provide a basis for smart interpolation. In: Proceedings of the JRC-FAO Workshop, Nairobi, Kenya.
23. Funk CC, Dettinger MD, Michaelsen JC, Verdin JP, Brown ME, Barlow M, Hoell A (2008) Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 105: 11081-11086.
24. Gatebe CK, Tyson PD, Annegarn H, Piketh S, Helas G (1999) A seasonal air transport climatology for Kenya. J Geophys Res 104: 14237-14244.
25. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302: 1027-1030.
26. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 106: 447-462.
27. Gill AE (1982) Atmosphere-ocean dynamics, vol 30. Academic Press, San Diego.
28. Goswami BN, Thomas MA (2000) Coupled ocean-atmosphere inter-decadal modes in the tropics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 78: 765-775.
29. Graham NE (1994) Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim Dynam 10: 135-162.
30. Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greischar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 98: 20219.
31. Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Climate 19: 5686-5699.
32. Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Xu T, Bates GT, Phillips AS (2004) Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Clim Dyn 23: 391-405.
33. Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J (2010) Regional precipitation trends: distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing. J Climate 23: 2131-2145.
34. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin P et al (1997) The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78: 5-20.
35. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2. 1. Geophys Res Lett 36: L17808.
36. Janowiak JE, Gruber A, Kondragunta CR, Livezey RE, Huffman GJ (1998) A comparison of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis precipitation and the GPCP rain gauge-satellite combined dataset with observational error considerations. J Climate 11: 2960-2979.
37. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Met Soc 83: 1631-1643.
38. Karl TR, Hassol SJ, Miller CD, Murray WL (eds) (2006) Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: steps for understanding and reconciling differences. US Government, Washington.
39. Kirtman BP, Schopf PS (1998) Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J Climate 11: 2804-2822.
40. 2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Climate 8: 2181-2199.
41. Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL028443.
42. Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28: 702-708.
43. Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29: 1109-1123.
44. Madden RA, Julian PR (1994) Observations of the 40-50-day tropical oscillation-a review. Mon Weath Rev 122: 814-837.
45. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Global climate projections, ch. 10. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 749-845.
46. Minobe S (2005) Year-to-year variability in the Hadley and Walker circulations from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In: Diaz HF, Bradley RS (eds) The Hadley circulation: present, past and future. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, pp 153-171.
47. Mitas CM, Clement A (2006) Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett 33: 1810-1813.
48. Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nino-Southern oscillation to African rainfall. Int J Climatol 17: 117-135.
49. Nicholson SE, Selato JC (2000) The influence of La Nina on African rainfall. Int J Climatol 20: 1761-1776.
50. Ogallo LJ (1988) Relationships between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation. Int J Climatol 8: 31-43.
51. Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006a) Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall. I: intraseasonal variability and regional dependency. Q J Roy Met Soc 132: 2521-2539.
52. Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006b) Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. March-May season extremes and interannual variability. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 132: 2541-2558.
53. Preisendorfer RW, Zwiers FW, Barnett TP (1981) Foundations of principal components selection rules. In: SIO reference series, vol 81. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA, p 4.
54. Quan XW, Diaz HF, Hoerling MP (2004) Change in the tropical Hadley cell since 1950. In: Diaz HF, Bradley RS (eds) The Hadley circulation: past, present and future. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, pp 85-120.
55. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S et al (2007) Climate models and their evaluation, ch. 8. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 589-662.
56. Rowell DP, Ininda JM, Ward MN (1994) The impact of global sea surface temperature patterns on seasonal rainfall in East Africa. In: Proceeding of international conference monsoon variability and prediction, vol 619. WMO, Trieste, Italy, pp 9-13.
57. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360-363.
58. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Mears C et al (2005) Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309: 1551-1556.
59. Santer BD, Thorne PW, Haimberger L et al (2008) Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int J Climatol 28: 1703-1722.
60. Seager R, Murtugudde R (1997) Ocean dynamics, thermoclime adjustment, and regulation of tropical SST. J Climate 10: 521-534.
61. Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopian/Horn of Africa Monsoon. Part I: associations of wavelet-filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. J Climate 22: 3396-3421.
62. Shanko D, Camberlin P (1998) The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought. Int J Climatol 18: 1373-1388.
63. Smith TM, Arkin PA, Sapiano MRP, Chang C-Y (2010) Merged statistical analyses of historical monthly precipitation anomalies beginning 1900. J Climate 23: 5755-5770.
64. Soden BJ, Jackson DL, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, Huang X (2005) The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening. Science 310: 841-844.
65. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (2007) Climate change 2007: contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
66. Sun D-Z, Liu Z (1996) Dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling, a thermostat for the tropics. Science 272: 1148-1150.
67. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Climate 20: 4316-4340.
68. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ, Wittenberg AT, Held IM, Leetmaa A, Harrison MJ (2006) Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441: 73-76.
69. Verdin J, Funk C, Senay G, Choularton R (2005) Climate science and famine early warning. Philos T Roy Soc B 360: 2155-2168.
70. von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research, vol 1. Cambridge University Press, New York.
71. Webster PJ (1998) Monsoons-processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103: 14451-14510.
72. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariabte MJO index: development of an index for monitoring prediction. Mon Weath Rev 132: 1917-1932.
73. Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-years monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Met Soc 78: 2539-2558.
74. Yin X, Gruber A, Arkin P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP merged gauge-satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979-2001. J Hydrometeor 5: 1207-1222.
75. Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-1993. J Climate 10: 1004-1020.