The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 127, Issue 6 II, 1999, Pages 1157-1186

  Annamalai, H ^a   Slingo, J M ^a   Sperber, K R ^b   Hodges, K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DIABATIC PROCESS; MONSOON; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

EID: 0032694387     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1157:tmeavo>2.0.co;2     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Annamalai, H., 1995: Intrinsic problem in the seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 55, 61-76.
2. Bengtsson, L., and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69, 1130-1143.
3. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
4. Charney, J. G., and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 99-110.
5. Chen, T.-C., and S.-P. Weng, 1999: Interannual and intraseasonal variations in monsoon depressions and their westward-propagating predecessors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1005-1020.
6. Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM simulations of active and break monsoon periods. Proc. Int. Conf. on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Vol. 2, Trieste, Italy, World Meteorological Organization, WMO/TD-No 619, 576-585.
7. Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. N. Palmer, and B. J. Hoskins, 1997: Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 1323-1357.
8. _, _, _, and _, 1999: The effect of land surface feedbacks on the monsoon circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
9. Findlater, J., 1969: A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 95, 362-380.
10. Gadgil, S., 1990: Poleward propagation of the ITCZ: Observations and theory. Mausam, 41, 285-290.
11. _, and G. Asha, 1992: Intraseasonal variation of the summer monsoon. Part I: Observational aspects. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 517-527.
12. Gates, W. L., 1992: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
13. Gibson, J. K., P. Kallberg, and S. Uppala, 1996: The ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA) Project. ECMWF Newsl., 73, 7-17.
14. _, _, _, A. Hernandez, A. Nomura, and E. Serrano, 1997: ECMWF ReAnalysis Project Rep. Ser. 1, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, 72 pp.
15. Hodges, K. I., 1995: Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3458-3465.
16. _, 1996: Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP GCM integration for AMIP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2914-2932.
17. _, 1998: Feature-point detection using distance transforms: Application to tracking tropical convective complexes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 785-795.
18. Hoskins, B. J., H. H. Hsu, I. N. James, M. Masutani, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and G. H. White, 1989: Diagnostics of the global atmospheric circulation based on ECMWF analyses 1979-1989. WCRP-27. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 217 pp.
19. Ju, J., and J. M. Slingo, 1995: The Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1133-1168.
20. Kallberg, R. 1997: Aspects of the re-analysed climate. ECMWF ReAnalysis Project Rep. Ser. 2, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom.
21. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
22. Krishna Kumar, K., M. K. Soman, and K. Rupa Kumar, 1995: Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Weather, 50, 449-467.
23. Krishnamurti, T. N., and H. N. Bhalme, 1976: Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I: Observational aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1937-1954.
24. _, and Y. Ramanathan, 1982: Sensitivity of the monsoon onset to differential heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1290-1306.
25. Lau, K.-M., G. J. Yang, and S. H. Shen, 1988: Seasonal and intra-seasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 18-37.
26. Legates, D. R., and C. J. Willmott, 1990: Mean, seasonal and spatial variability in gauge corrected global precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 111-127.
27. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) OLR dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
28. Mausam, 1989: Monsoon season (June-September 1988). Mausam, 40, 351-366.
29. Meehl, G. A., 1987: The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 27-49.
30. _, 1993: A coupled air-sea biennial mechanism in the tropical Indian and Pacific regions: Role of the ocean. J. Climate, 6, 31-41.
31. _, 1994: Coupled land-ocean-atmosphere processes and South Asian monsoon variability. Science, 266, 263-267.
32. _, 1997: The south Asian monsoon and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation. J. Climate, 10, 1921-1943.
33. Mo, K. C., and R. W. Higgins, 1996: Large-scale atmospheric moisture transport as evaluated in the NCEP/NCAR and the NASA/ DAO reanalyses. J. Climate, 9, 1531-1545.
34. Normand, C., 1953: Monsoon seasonal forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 79, 463-473.
35. Palmer, T. N., 1994: Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoon. Proc. Indian Nat. Sci. Acad., 60, 57-66.
36. Pan, H. L., and L. Mahrt, 1987: Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary layer developments. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 38, 185-202.
37. _, and W. S. Wu, 1994: Implementing a mass-flux convection parameterization package for the NMC medium-range forecast model. Proc. Tenth Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96-98.
38. Pant, G. B., and K. Rupa Kumar, 1997: Climates of South Asia. John Wiley and Sons, 320 pp.
39. Parker, D. E., C. K. Holland, A. Bevan, M. N. Ward, M. Jackson, and K. Maskell, 1995: Marine surface data for analyses of climatic fluctuations on interannual to century timescales. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, D. G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M. M. Hall, T. R. Karl, E. S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L. D. Talley, Eds., National Academy Press, 241-250.
40. Parthasarathy, B., A. A. Munot, and D. R. Kothawale, 1994: All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871-1993. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 49, 217-224.
41. _, _, and _, 1995: Monthly and seasonal rainfall series for all-India homogeneous regions and meteorological subdivisions: 1871-1994. Research Rep. RR-065, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 113 pp. [Available from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411 008 India.]
42. Randel, D. L., T. H. Vonder Haar, M. A. Ringerud, D. L. Reinke, G. L. Greenwald, and C. L. Combs, 1996: A new global water vapor dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1233-1246.
43. Rao, R. R., R. L. Molinari, and J. F. Festa, 1989: Evolution of the climatological near-surface thermal structure of the tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: Description of mean monthly mixed layer depth, and sea surface temperature, surface current, and surface meteorological fields. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 10801-10815.
44. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1983: The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 517-528.
45. Rayner, N. A., E. B. Horton, D. E. Parker, C. K. Holland, and R. B. Hackett, 1996: Version 2.2 of the global sea-ice and sea surface temperature dataset, 1903-1994. CRTN 74, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Bracknell, United Kingdom.
46. Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
47. Rodwell, M. J., 1997: Breaks in the Asian monsoon: The influence of the Southern Hemisphere weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2597-2611.
48. _, and B. J. Hoskins, 1996: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1385-1404.
49. Saha, K., F. Sanders, and J. Shukla, 1981: Westward propagating predecessors of monsoon depressions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 330-343.
50. Sikka, D. R., and S. Gadgil, 1980: On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1840-1853.
51. Slingo, J. M., 1987: The development and verification of a cloud prediction scheme for the ECMWF model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 899-927.
52. _, 1999: The Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Beyond El Niño: Decadal Variability in the Climate System, A. Navarra, Ed., Springer-Verlag, in press.
53. _, K. R. Sperber, J.-J. Morcrette, and G. L. Potter, 1992: Analysis of the temporal behavior of convection in the tropics of the ECMWF model. J. Geophys. Res., 97, 18 119-18 135.
54. _, M. Blackburn, A. Betts, R. Brugge, K. Hodges, B. Hoskins, M. Miller, L. Steenman-Clark, and J. Thuburn, 1994: Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to convective parameterization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 881-922.
55. Soman, M. K., and K. Krishna Kumar, 1993: Space-time evolution of meteorological features associated with the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1177-1194.
56. _, and J. M. Slingo, 1997: Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aspects of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 309-336.
57. Sperber, K. R., and T. N. Palmer, 1996: Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J. Climate, 9, 2727-2750.
58. Stendel, M., and K. Arpe, 1997: Evaluation of the hydrological cycle in reanalyses and observations. Rep. 228, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 52 pp. [Available from Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.]
59. Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1779-1800.
60. _, 1993: Representation of clouds in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 3040-3061.
61. Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1998: Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dyn., 14, 213-231.
62. Viterbo, P., and A. C. M. Beljaars, 1995: An improved land surface parameterization scheme in the ECMWF model and its validation. J. Climate, 8, 2716-2748.
63. WCRP, 1992: Simulation of monsoon variability. WCRP-68 WMO/ TD 470, 185 pp. [Available from World Meteorological Organization, Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland.]
64. _, 1993: Simulation and prediction of monsoon, recent results. WCRP-80 WMO/TD 546, 73 pp. [Available from World Meteorological Organization, Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland.]
65. Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877-926.
66. _, T. N. Palmer, M. Yanai, J. Shukla, V. Magnana, T. Yasunari, and R. Tomas, 1998: The monsoon: Processes, predictability and prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 451-14 510.
67. Xie, P., and P. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9, 840-858.
68. Yasunari, T., 1991: The monsoon year - A new concept of the climate year in the Tropics. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72, 1331-1338.