A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 909-926

  Delsole, Timothy ^a,b   Tippett, Michael K ^c   Shukla, Jagadish ^a,b  

^a GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

^c Earth Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

Decadal variability; Global warming

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; CLIMATE SIMULATION; DECADAL TIMESCALE; DECADAL VARIABILITY; FORCED COMPONENT; INTEGRAL TIME SCALE; INTERNAL DYNAMICS; MULTI-DECADAL TIME SCALE; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TIME-SCALES; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; GLOBAL WARMING;

TIME MEASUREMENT;

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; CLIMATE MODELING; DECADAL VARIATION; GLOBAL WARMING; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STOCHASTICITY; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 79953800936     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3659.1     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Allen, M. R., and S. F. B. Tett, 1999: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Climate Dyn., 15, 419-434.
2. Barnett, T. P., 1984: Long-term trends in surface temperature over the oceans. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 303-312.
3. Bindoff, N. L., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 385-432.
4. Bjerknes, J., 1964: Atlantic air-sea interaction. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 10, Academic Press, 1-82.
5. DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2007: Predictability: Recent insights from information theory. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG4002, doi:10.1029/2006RG000202.
6. DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009a: Average predictability time. Part I: Theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1172-1187.
7. DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009b: Average predictability time. Part II: Seamless diagnosis of predictability on multiple time scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1188-1204.
8. DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model fidelity versus skill in seasonal forecasting. J. Climate, 18, 4794-4806.
9. Delworth, T., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 16, 661-676.
10. Forster, P., and Coauthors, 2007: Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 129-234.
11. Ghil, M., and Coauthors, 2002: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev. Geophys., 40, 1003, doi:10.1029/ 2000RG000092.
12. Hasselmann, K., 1979: On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. Meteorology of the Tropical Ocean, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 251-259.
13. Hasselmann, K., 1997: Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change. Climate Dyn., 13, 601-611.
14. Hegerl, G. C., and Coauthors, 2007: Understanding and attributing climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 663-745.
15. Huang, N. E., and Z. Wu, 2008: A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: Method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev. Geophys., 46, RG2006, doi:10.1029/2007RG000228.
16. Huntingford, C., P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, and F. H. Lambert, 2006: Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05710, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024831.
17. Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley-Interscience, 254 pp.
18. Knight, J.R., R. J. Allan, C. K. Folland, M. Vellinga, andM.E.Mann, 2005: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024233.
19. Knutson, T. R., and Coauthors, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157-163, doi:10.1038/NGEO779.
20. Kushnir, Y., 1994: Interdecadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J. Climate, 7, 141-157.
21. Latif, M., M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J. Climate, 19, 5971-5987.
22. Leith, C. E., 1973: The standard error of time-average estimates of climate means. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1066-1069.
23. Lemke, P., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 337-383.
24. Rayner, N. A., P. Brohan, D. E. Parker, C. F. Folland, J. J. Kennedy, M. Vanicek, T. Answell, and S. Tett, 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate, 19, 446-469.
25. Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optimal depths 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98 (D12), 22 987-22 994.
26. Schlesinger, M. E., and N. Ramankutty, 1994: An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature, 367, 723-726.
27. Schneider, T., 2001: Analysis of incomplete climate data: Estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values. J. Climate, 14, 853-871.
28. Schneider, T., and I. M. Held, 2001: Discriminants of twentieth-century changes in earth surface temperatures. J. Climate, 14, 249-254.
29. Stone, D. A., M. R. Allen, and P. A. Stott, 2007: A multimodel update on the detection and attribution of global surface warming. J. Climate, 20, 3551-3565.
30. Straus, D., J. Shukla, D. Paolino, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric circulation during autumn, winter, and spring. J. Climate, 16, 3629-3649.
31. Thompson, D. W.J., J. J.Kennedy, J.M.Wallace, and P. D. Jones, 2008: A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature. Nature, 453, 646-649.
32. Ting,M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
33. Trenberth, K. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 235-336.
34. Venzke, S., M. R.Allen,R. T. Sutton, andD. P. Rowell, 1999: The atmospheric response over the North Atlantic to decadal changes in sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 12, 2562- 2584.
35. Zhang, R., T. L. Delworth, and I. M. Held, 2007: Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature? Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02709, doi:10.1029/2006GL028683.
36. Zwiers, F. W., and X. Zhang, 2003: Toward regional-scale climate change detection. J. Climate, 16, 793-797.