메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 78, Issue S1, 2014, Pages 204-232

Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 84928892864     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfu008     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (78)

References (40)
  • 1
    • 84870195473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting in a polarized era: The time for change model and the 2012 presidential election ps
    • Abramowitz, Alan I. 2012 Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election PS: Political Science & Politics 45 618-19.
    • (2012) Political Science & Politics , vol.45 , pp. 618-619
    • Abramowitz, A.I.1
  • 2
    • 1342267605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A meta-analysis of the effects of viewing u.s. Presidential debates
    • Benoit, William L., Glenn J. Hansen, and Rebecca M. Verser. 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Viewing U.S. Presidential Debates." Communication Monographs 70:335-50.
    • (2003) Communication Monographs , vol.70 , pp. 335-350
    • Benoit, W.L.1    Hansen, G.J.2    Verser, R.M.3
  • 4
    • 0001524786 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Polls and votes the trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns
    • Campbell, James E. 1996. "Polls and Votes the Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns." American Politics Research 24:408-33.
    • (1996) American Politics Research , vol.24 , pp. 408-433
    • Campbell, J.E.1
  • 5
    • 84870219020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the presidential and congressional elections of 2012: The trial-heat and the seats-in-trouble models ps
    • Campbell, James E. 2012. "Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models." PS: Political Science and Politics 45:630-34.
    • (2012) Political Science and Politics , vol.45 , pp. 630-634
    • Campbell, J.E.1
  • 7
    • 0004000536 scopus 로고
    • [1785] Essay on the Application of Probability Analyses to Decisions Returned by a Plurality of People
    • Condorcet Jean-Antoine-Nicolas de Caritat marquis de edited by Iain McLean and Fiona Hewitt. Brookfield, VT Edward Elgar Publishing
    • Condorcet, Jean-Antoine-Nicolas de Caritat, marquis de. 1994[1785]. "Essay on the Application of Probability Analyses to Decisions Returned by a Plurality of People." In Condorcet: Foundations of Social Choice and Political Theory, edited by Iain McLean and Fiona Hewitt, 11-36. Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • (1994) Condorcet: Foundations of Social Choice and Political Theory , pp. 11-36
  • 8
    • 0033247102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Presidential polls as a time series: The case of 1996
    • Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 1999. "Presidential Polls as a Time Series: The Case of 1996." Public Opinion Quarterly 63:163-77.
    • (1999) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.63 , pp. 163-177
    • Erikson, R.S.1    Wlezien, C.2
  • 9
    • 44949095483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are political markets really superior to polls as election predictors?
    • Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2008. "Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?" Public Opinion Quarterly 72:190-215.
    • (2008) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.72 , pp. 190-215
    • Erikson, R.S.1    Wlezien, C.2
  • 10
    • 84870224949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The objective and subjective economy and the presidential vote
    • Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2012. "The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote." PS: Political Science & Politics 45:620-24.
    • (2012) PS: Political Science & Politics , vol.45 , pp. 620-624
    • Erikson, R.S.1    Wlezien, C.2
  • 12
    • 0033130232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wishes, expectations, and actions: A survey on price formation in election stock markets
    • Forsythe, Robert, Thomas A. Rietz, and Thomas W. Ross. 1999. "Wishes, Expectations, and Actions: A Survey on Price Formation in Election Stock Markets." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 39:83-110.
    • (1999) Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization , vol.39 , pp. 83-110
    • Forsythe, R.1    Rietz, T.A.2    Ross, T.W.3
  • 13
    • 34248249679 scopus 로고
    • Why are american presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?
    • Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. 1993. "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23:409-51.
    • (1993) British Journal of Political Science , vol.23 , pp. 409-451
    • Gelman, A.1    King, G.2
  • 17
    • 58149372496 scopus 로고
    • When prophecy bends: The preference-expectation link in u.s. Presidential elections, 1952-1980
    • Granberg, Donald, and Edward Brent. 1983. "When Prophecy Bends: The Preference-Expectation Link in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1952-1980." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45:477-91.
    • (1983) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.45 , pp. 477-491
    • Granberg, D.1    Brent, E.2
  • 18
    • 0011459206 scopus 로고
    • The predictive ability of voters
    • Hayes, Samuel P. Jr. 1936. "The Predictive Ability of Voters." Journal of Social Psychology 7:183-91.
    • (1936) Journal of Social Psychology , vol.7 , pp. 183-191
    • Hayes, S.P.1
  • 20
    • 84879603067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When simple is hard to accept
    • edited by Peter M. Todd, Gerd Gigerenzer, and ABC Research Group. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
    • Hogarth, Robin M. 2012. "When Simple Is Hard to Accept." In Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World, edited by Peter M. Todd, Gerd Gigerenzer, and ABC Research Group, 61-79. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
    • (2012) Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World , pp. 61-79
    • Hogarth, R.M.1
  • 21
    • 84885037991 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting us presidential elections
    • edited by Jan E. Leighley. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
    • Holbrook, Thomas M. 2010. "Forecasting US Presidential Elections." In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, edited by Jan E. Leighley, 346-71. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
    • (2010) The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior , pp. 346-371
    • Holbrook, T.M.1
  • 22
    • 84870217358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incumbency, national conditions, and the 2012 presidential election ps
    • Holbrook, Thomas M. 2012. "Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science & Politics 45:640-43.
    • (2012) Political Science & Politics , vol.45 , pp. 640-643
    • Holbrook, T.M.1
  • 23
    • 0034258591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Life before polls: Ohio politicians predict the 1828 presidential vote ps
    • Kernell, Samuel. 2000. "Life before Polls: Ohio Politicians Predict the 1828 Presidential Vote." PS: Political Science and Politics 33:569-74.
    • (2000) Political Science and Politics , vol.33 , pp. 569-574
    • Kernell, S.1
  • 25
    • 84963056907 scopus 로고
    • Picking the winners: Politician vs. Voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures
    • Lemert, James B. 1986. "Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures." Public Opinion Quarterly 50:208-21.
    • (1986) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.50 , pp. 208-221
    • Lemert, J.B.1
  • 27
    • 79956026213 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Citizen forecasting: Can uk voters see the future?
    • Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Mary Stegmaier. 2011. "Citizen Forecasting: Can UK Voters See the Future?" Electoral Studies 30:264-68.
    • (2011) Electoral Studies , vol.30 , pp. 264-268
    • Lewis-Beck, M.S.1    Stegmaier, M.2
  • 28
    • 0347718424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Voters as forecasters: A micromodel of election prediction
    • Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Charles Tien. 1999. "Voters as Forecasters: A Micromodel of Election Prediction." International Journal of Forecasting 15:175-84.
    • (1999) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.15 , pp. 175-184
    • Lewis-Beck, M.S.1    Tien, C.2
  • 30
    • 84870184546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic expectations and election outcomes: The presidency and the house in 2012
    • Lockerbie, Brad. 2012. "Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012." PS: Political Science & Politics 45:644-47.
    • (2012) PS: Political Science & Politics , vol.45 , pp. 644-647
    • Lockerbie, B.1
  • 31
  • 32
    • 81555197019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wisdom of crowds"? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations
    • Murr, Andreas E. 2011. "'Wisdom of Crowds"? A Decentralised Election Forecasting Model That Uses Citizens' Local Expectations." Electoral Studies 30:771-83.
    • (2011) Electoral Studies , vol.30 , pp. 771-783
    • Murr, A.E.1
  • 36
    • 29344432660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Political polling and the new media culture: A case of more being less
    • Rosenstiel, Tom. 2005. "Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less." Public Opinion Quarterly 69:698-715.
    • (2005) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.69 , pp. 698-715
    • Rosenstiel, T.1
  • 38
    • 58149199741 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public
    • Sjöberg, Lennart. 2009. "Are All Crowds Equally Wise? A Comparison of Political Election Forecasts by Experts and the Public." Journal of Forecasting 28:1-18.
    • (2009) Journal of Forecasting , vol.28 , pp. 1-18
    • Sjöberg, L.1
  • 39
    • 84904008385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New Republic November 6. Available at
    • Tracy, Marc. 2012. "Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times." New Republic, November 6. Available at http://www.newrepublic.com/article/109714/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-blogdrawing-massive-traffic-new-york-times.
    • (2012) Nate Silver Is A One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times
    • Tracy, M.1
  • 40
    • 78751625181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Keep it sophisticatedly simple
    • edited by Arnold Zellner, Hugo A. Keuzenkamp, and Michael McAleer. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Zellner, Arnold. 2004. "Keep It Sophisticatedly Simple." In Simplicity, Inference, and Modeling: Keeping It Sophisticatedly Simple, edited by Arnold Zellner, Hugo A. Keuzenkamp, and Michael McAleer, 242-62. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2004) Simplicity, Inference, and Modeling: Keeping It Sophisticatedly Simple , pp. 242-262
    • Zellner, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.