메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 142, Issue 6, 2014, Pages 2176-2197

Calibration of limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts for hydrological predictions

Author keywords

Ensembles; Flood events; Forecast verification skill; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Statistical techniques

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; ERRORS; FLOODS; MAPPING; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RUNOFF; STATISTICAL TESTS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84901640029     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00071.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (11)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 79960676773 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): Skill, case studies and scenarios
    • doi: 10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011
    • Addor, N., S. Jaun, F. Fundel, and M. Zappa, 2011: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): Skill, case studies and scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327-2347, doi: 10. 5194/hess-15-2327-2011.
    • (2011) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.15 , pp. 2327-2347
    • Addor, N.1    Jaun, S.2    Fundel, F.3    Zappa, M.4
  • 2
    • 0141682983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1509: SAIVOT>2.0.CO;2
    • Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1509: SAIVOT>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1509-1523
    • Atger, F.1
  • 3
    • 84868335936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generating and calibrating probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from the high-resolution NWP model COSMO-DE
    • doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00101.1
    • Bentzien, S., and P. Friederichs, 2012: Generating and calibrating probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from the high-resolution NWP model COSMO-DE. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 988-1002, doi: 10. 1175/WAF-D-11-00101. 1.
    • (2012) Wea. Forecasting , vol.27 , pp. 988-1002
    • Bentzien, S.1    Friederichs, P.2
  • 4
    • 84867970319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved calibration of precipitation forecasts using ensemble techniques. Part 2: Statistical calibration methods
    • Rep. 04/2007, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
    • Bremnes, J. B., 2007: Improved calibration of precipitation forecasts using ensemble techniques. Part 2: Statistical calibration methods. Meteorology Rep. 04/2007, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 38 pp. [Available online at http://met. no/Forskning/Publikasjoner/Publikasjoner_1995-2011/Publikasjoner_2007/filestore/report04_2007. pdf.]
    • (2007) Meteorology , pp. 38
    • Bremnes, J.B.1
  • 5
    • 84901608585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved calibration of precipitation forecasts using ensemble techniques. Part 4: On the use of reforecasts in statistical calibration
    • Rep. 02/2008, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
    • Bremnes, J. B., 2008: Improved calibration of precipitation forecasts using ensemble techniques. Part 4: On the use of reforecasts in statistical calibration. Meteorology Rep. 02/2008, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 13 pp. [Available online at http://met. no/Forskning/Publikasjoner/Publikasjoner_1995_-_2012/Publikasjoner_2008/filestore/03_2008. pdf.]
    • (2008) Meteorology , pp. 13
    • Bremnes, J.B.1
  • 6
    • 84862912812 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kalman filter and analog schemes to postprocess numerical weather predictions
    • doi: 10.1175/2011MWR3653.1
    • Delle Monache, L., T. Nipen, Y. Liu, G. Roux, and R. Stull, 2011: Kalman filter and analog schemes to postprocess numerical weather predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3554-3570, doi: 10. 1175/2011MWR3653. 1.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 3554-3570
    • Delle Monache, L.1    Nipen, T.2    Liu, Y.3    Roux, G.4    Stull, R.5
  • 7
    • 84884969315 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic weather prediction with an analog ensemble
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00281.1
    • Delle Monache, L., F. Eckel, D. Rife, B. Nagarajan, and K. Searight, 2013: Probabilistic weather prediction with an analog ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3498-3516, doi: 10. 1175/MWR-D-12-00281. 1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.141 , pp. 3498-3516
    • Delle Monache, L.1    Eckel, F.2    Rife, D.3    Nagarajan, B.4    Searight, K.5
  • 8
    • 41249086936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts: Hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event
    • doi: 10.5194/npg-15-275-2008
    • Dietrich, J., S. Trepte, Y. Wang, A. H. Schumann, F. Voß, F. B. Hesser, and M. Denhard, 2008: Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts: Hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 15, 275-286, doi: 10. 5194/npg-15-275-2008.
    • (2008) Nonlinear Processes Geophys. , vol.15 , pp. 275-286
    • Dietrich, J.1    Trepte, S.2    Wang, Y.3    Schumann, A.H.4    Voß, F.5    Hesser, F.B.6    Denhard, M.7
  • 9
    • 33646347656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the discharge forecast uncertainty by different approaches to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast
    • doi: 10.5194/adgeo-7-189-2006
    • Diomede, T., C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, and A. Montani, 2006: Quantifying the discharge forecast uncertainty by different approaches to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast. Adv. Geosci., 7, 189-191, doi: 10. 5194/adgeo-7-189-2006.
    • (2006) Adv. Geosci. , vol.7 , pp. 189-191
    • Diomede, T.1    Marsigli, C.2    Nerozzi, F.3    Paccagnella, T.4    Montani, A.5
  • 10
    • 38849190158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty
    • doi: 10.5194/hess-12-141-2008
    • Diomede, T., F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, and E. Todini, 2008: The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 141-157, doi: 10. 5194/hess-12-141-2008.
    • (2008) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.12 , pp. 141-157
    • Diomede, T.1    Nerozzi, F.2    Paccagnella, T.3    Todini, E.4
  • 11
    • 0032580997 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aprecipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations
    • doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18: 8<873:: AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9
    • Frei, C., and C. Schär, 1998: Aprecipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873-900, doi: 10. 1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18: 8<873:: AID-JOC255>3. 0. CO;2-9.
    • (1998) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.18 , pp. 873-900
    • Frei, C.1    Schär, C.2
  • 12
    • 33646415341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models
    • D06105, doi: 10. 1029/2005JD005965
    • Frei, C., R. Schöll, S. Fukutome, J. Schmidli, and P. L. Vidale, 2006: Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06105, doi: 10. 1029/2005JD005965.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.111
    • Frei, C.1    Schöll, R.2    Fukutome, S.3    Schmidli, J.4    Vidale, P.L.5
  • 13
    • 77953254960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2977.1
    • Fundel, F., A. Walser, M. A. Liniger, C. Frei, and C. Appenzeller, 2010: Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 176-189, doi: 10. 1175/2009MWR2977. 1.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 176-189
    • Fundel, F.1    Walser, A.2    Liniger, M.A.3    Frei, C.4    Appenzeller, C.5
  • 14
    • 26844438590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
    • doi: 10.1126/science.1115255
    • Gneiting, T., and A. E. Raftery, 2005: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249, doi: 10. 1126/science. 1115255.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , pp. 248-249
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 15
    • 20444484849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR2904.1
    • Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld III, and T. Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1098-1118, doi: 10. 1175/MWR2904. 1.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1098-1118
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Westveld III, A.H.3    Goldman, T.4
  • 16
    • 52149124313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: 2-meter temperature
    • doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2410.1
    • Hagedorn, R., T. M. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker, 2008: Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: 2-meter temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2608-2619, doi: 10. 1175/2007MWR2410. 1.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2608-2619
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Hamill, T.M.2    Whitaker, J.S.3
  • 17
    • 0033117844 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hypothesis tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0155: HTFENP>2.0.CO;2
    • Hamill, T. M., 1999: Hypothesis tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 155-167, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0155: HTFENP>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 155-167
    • Hamill, T.M.1
  • 18
    • 0001104165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0711: EOEREP>2.0.CO;2
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0711: EOEREP>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 711-724
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 19
    • 33750361341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
    • doi: 10.1256/qj.06.25
    • Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923, doi: 10. 1256/qj. 06. 25.
    • (2006) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.132 , pp. 2905-2923
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Juras, J.2
  • 20
    • 33845386005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR3237.1
    • Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2006: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3209-3229, doi: 10. 1175/MWR3237. 1.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 3209-3229
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Whitaker, J.S.2
  • 21
    • 34848879206 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble calibration of 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa and 2-m temperatures using reforecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR3468.1
    • Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2007: Ensemble calibration of 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa and 2-m temperatures using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3273-3280, doi: 10. 1175/MWR3468. 1.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3273-3280
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Whitaker, J.S.2
  • 22
    • 52149093177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2411.1
    • Hamill, T. M., R. Hagedorn, and J. S. Whitaker, 2008: Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2620-2632, doi: 10. 1175/2007MWR2411. 1.
    • (2008) Part II: Precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2620-2632
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Whitaker, J.S.3
  • 23
    • 77955503181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 1-10-day ensemble forecasting scheme for the major river basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting severe floods of 2003-07
    • doi: 10.1175/2009JHM1006.1
    • Hopson, T. M., and P. J. Webster, 2010: A 1-10-day ensemble forecasting scheme for the major river basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting severe floods of 2003-07. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 618-641, doi: 10. 1175/2009JHM1006. 1.
    • (2010) J. Hydrometeor. , vol.11 , pp. 618-641
    • Hopson, T.M.1    Webster, P.J.2
  • 24
    • 69349094256 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system
    • doi: 10.5194/hess-13-1031-2009
    • Jaun, S., and B. Ahrens, 2009: Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1031-1043, doi: 10. 5194/hess-13-1031-2009.
    • (2009) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.13 , pp. 1031-1043
    • Jaun, S.1    Ahrens, B.2
  • 25
    • 70449105760 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrating 2-m temperature of limited-area ensemble forecasts using high-resolution analysis
    • doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2793.1
    • Kann, A., C. Wittmann, Y. Wang, and X. Ma, 2009: Calibrating 2-m temperature of limited-area ensemble forecasts using high-resolution analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3373-3387, doi: 10. 1175/2009MWR2793. 1.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 3373-3387
    • Kann, A.1    Wittmann, C.2    Wang, Y.3    Ma, X.4
  • 26
    • 80052419057 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Locally calibrated probabilistic temperature forecasting using geostatistical model averaging and local Bayesian model averaging
    • doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3511.1
    • Kleiber, W., A. E. Raftery, J. Baars, T. Gneiting, C. F. Mass, and E. Grimi, 2011a: Locally calibrated probabilistic temperature forecasting using geostatistical model averaging and local Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2630-2649, doi: 10. 1175/2010MWR3511. 1.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 2630-2649
    • Kleiber, W.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Baars, J.3    Gneiting, T.4    Mass, C.F.5    Grimi, E.6
  • 27
    • 84855993199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
    • doi: 10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10433
    • Kleiber, W., A. E. Raftery, and T. Gneiting, 2011b: Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 106, 1291-1303, doi: 10. 1198/jasa. 2011. ap10433.
    • (2011) J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. , vol.106 , pp. 1291-1303
    • Kleiber, W.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Gneiting, T.3
  • 28
    • 0000250952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313: SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2
    • Leung, L. R., A. F. Hamlet, D. P. Lettenmaier, and A. Kumar, 1999: Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2313-2328, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313: SOTEHS>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (1999) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.80 , pp. 2313-2328
    • Leung, L.R.1    Hamlet, A.F.2    Lettenmaier, D.P.3    Kumar, A.4
  • 29
    • 0036820545 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a comprehensive physicallybased rainfall-runoff model
    • doi: 10.5194/hess-6-859-2002
    • Liu, Z., and E. Todini, 2002: Towards a comprehensive physicallybased rainfall-runoff model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 859-881, doi: 10. 5194/hess-6-859-2002.
    • (2002) Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , vol.6 , pp. 859-881
    • Liu, Z.1    Todini, E.2
  • 30
    • 42549148765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts
    • doi: 10.1002/met.65
    • Marsigli, C., A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella, 2008: A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 15, 125-143, doi: 10. 1002/met. 65.
    • (2008) Meteor. Appl. , vol.15 , pp. 125-143
    • Marsigli, C.1    Montani, A.2    Paccagnella, T.3
  • 31
    • 79954632899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: Main achievements and open challenges
    • doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00499.x
    • Montani, A., D. Cesari, C. Marsigli, and T. Paccagnella, 2011: Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: Main achievements and open challenges. Tellus, 63A, 605-624, doi: 10. 1111/j. 1600-0870. 2010. 00499. x.
    • (2011) Tellus , vol.63 A , pp. 605-624
    • Montani, A.1    Cesari, D.2    Marsigli, C.3    Paccagnella, T.4
  • 32
    • 0036674710 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative precipitation forecasts: A statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach
    • doi: 10.1016/S0169-8095(02)00038-8
    • Obled, C., G. Bontron, and R. Garçon, 2002: Quantitative precipitation forecasts: A statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmos. Res., 63, 303-324, doi: 10. 1016/S0169-8095(02)00038-8.
    • (2002) Atmos. Res. , vol.63 , pp. 303-324
    • Obled, C.1    Bontron, G.2    Garçon, R.3
  • 33
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR2906.1
    • Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155-1174, doi: 10. 1175/MWR2906. 1.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 34
    • 70249118220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of ensemble flowforecast for theRiverRhine
    • doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.059
    • Renner, M., M. G. F. Werner, S. Rademacher, and E. Sprokkereef, 2009: Verification of ensemble flowforecast for theRiverRhine. J. Hydrol., 376, 463-475, doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2009. 07. 059.
    • (2009) J. Hydrol. , vol.376 , pp. 463-475
    • Renner, M.1    Werner, M.G.F.2    Rademacher, S.3    Sprokkereef, E.4
  • 35
    • 39749151765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events
    • doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2123.1
    • Roberts, N. M., and H. W. Lean, 2008: Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 78-97, doi: 10. 1175/2007MWR2123. 1.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 78-97
    • Roberts, N.M.1    Lean, H.W.2
  • 36
    • 84857969929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Postprocessing of ensemble precipitation predictions with extended logistic regression based on hindcasts
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00062.1
    • Roulin, E., and S. Vannitsem, 2012: Postprocessing of ensemble precipitation predictions with extended logistic regression based on hindcasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 874-888, doi: 10. 1175/MWR-D-11-00062. 1.
    • (2012) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.140 , pp. 874-888
    • Roulin, E.1    Vannitsem, S.2
  • 37
    • 0037262706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles
    • doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.201378.x
    • Roulston, M. S., and L. A. Smith, 2003: Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus, 55A, 16-30, doi: 10. 1034/j. 1600-0870. 2003. 201378. x.
    • (2003) Tellus , vol.55 A , pp. 16-30
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 38
    • 0024192655 scopus 로고
    • Factors affecting the occurrence and lifetime of 500-mb height analogues: A study based on a large amount of data
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0368: FATOAL>2.0.CO;2
    • Ruosteenoja, K., 1988: Factors affecting the occurrence and lifetime of 500-mb height analogues: A study based on a large amount of data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 368-376, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0368: FATOAL>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 368-376
    • Ruosteenoja, K.1
  • 39
    • 78650192426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison between raw ensemble output, (modified) Bayesian model averaging, and extended logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3285.1
    • Schmeits, M. J., and K. J. Kok, 2010: A comparison between raw ensemble output, (modified) Bayesian model averaging, and extended logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4199-4211, doi: 10. 1175/2010MWR3285. 1.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 4199-4211
    • Schmeits, M.J.1    Kok, K.J.2
  • 40
    • 34248354794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging
    • doi: 10.1175/MWR3441.1
    • Sloughter, J. M., A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and C. Fraley, 2007: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3209-3220, doi: 10. 1175/MWR3441. 1.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3209-3220
    • Sloughter, J.M.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Gneiting, T.3    Fraley, C.4
  • 42
    • 3242809329 scopus 로고
    • Coefficients for debiasing forecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<2047: CFDF>2.0.CO;2
    • Stewart, T. R., and P. Reagan-Cirincione, 1991: Coefficients for debiasing forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 2047-2051, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1991)119<2047: CFDF>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (1991) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.119 , pp. 2047-2051
    • Stewart, T.R.1    Reagan-Cirincione, P.2
  • 43
    • 84927071304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The attributes of forecast systems: A general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
    • T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, and Y. Zhu, 2006: The attributes of forecast systems: A general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts. Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 584-595.
    • (2006) Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 584-595
    • Toth, Z.1    Talagrand, O.2    Zhu, Y.3
  • 45
    • 34848882211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies
    • doi: 10.1175/JHM594.1
    • Verbunt, M., A. Walser, J. Gurtz, A. Montani, and C. Schär, 2007: Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 897-909, doi: 10. 1175/JHM594. 1.
    • (2007) J. Hydrometeor. , vol.8 , pp. 897-909
    • Verbunt, M.1    Walser, A.2    Gurtz, J.3    Montani, A.4    Schär, C.5
  • 46
    • 78650983778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibration and downscaling methods for quantitative ensemble precipitation forecasts
    • doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222367.1
    • Voisin, N., J. C. Schaake, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2010: Calibration and downscaling methods for quantitative ensemble precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1603-1627, doi: 10. 1175/2010WAF2222367. 1.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1603-1627
    • Voisin, N.1    Schaake, J.C.2    Lettenmaier, D.P.3
  • 47
    • 6444220558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convection-resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments
    • doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.035
    • Walser, A., and C. Schär, 2004: Convection-resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments. J. Hydrol., 288, 57-73, doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2003. 11. 035.
    • (2004) J. Hydrol. , vol.288 , pp. 57-73
    • Walser, A.1    Schär, C.2
  • 48
    • 27644443229 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvement of ensemble reliability with a new dressing kernel
    • doi: 10.1256/qj.04.120
    • Wang, X., and C. H. Bishop, 2005: Improvement of ensemble reliability with a new dressing kernel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 965-986, doi: 10. 1256/qj. 04. 120.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.131 , pp. 965-986
    • Wang, X.1    Bishop, C.H.2
  • 49
    • 77955484380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh
    • doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2911.1
    • Webster, P. J., and Coauthors, 2010: Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1493-1514, doi: 10. 1175/2010BAMS2911. 1.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1493-1514
    • Webster, P.J.1
  • 50
    • 0034233154 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diagnostic verification of the Climate Prediction Center long-lead outlooks, 1995-98
    • doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2389: DVOTCP>2.0.CO;2
    • Wilks, D. S., 2000: Diagnostic verification of the Climate Prediction Center long-lead outlooks, 1995-98. J. Climate, 13, 2389-2403, doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2389: DVOTCP>2. 0. CO;2.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 2389-2403
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 51
    • 70349414695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending logistic regression to provide fullprobability-distribution MOS forecasts
    • doi: 10.1002/met.134
    • Wilks, D. S., 2009: Extending logistic regression to provide fullprobability-distribution MOS forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 16, 361-368, doi: 10. 1002/met. 134.
    • (2009) Meteor. Appl. , vol.16 , pp. 361-368
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 53
    • 36448934567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States
    • doi: 10.1029/2001JD000659
    • Wood, A. W., E. P. Maurer, A. Kumar, and D. Lettenmaier, 2002: Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4429, doi: 10. 1029/2001JD000659.
    • (2002) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.107 , pp. 4429
    • Wood, A.W.1    Maurer, E.P.2    Kumar, A.3    Lettenmaier, D.4
  • 54
    • 38849171706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network
    • doi: 10.1175/2007WAF2006114.1
    • Yuan, H., X. Gao, S. L. Mullen, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H.-M. H. Juang, 2007: Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1287-1303, doi: 10. 1175/2007WAF2006114. 1.
    • (2007) Wea. Forecasting , vol.22 , pp. 1287-1303
    • Yuan, H.1    Gao, X.2    Mullen, S.L.3    Sorooshian, S.4    Du, J.5    Juang, H.-M.H.6
  • 55
    • 84871427016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical processing of forecasts for hydrological ensemble prediction: A comparative study of different bias correction strategies
    • doi: 10.5194/asr-8-135-2012
    • Zalachori, I., M.-H. Ramos, R. Garçon, T. Mathevet, and J. Gailhard, 2012: Statistical processing of forecasts for hydrological ensemble prediction: A comparative study of different bias correction strategies. Adv. Sci. Res., 8, 135-141, doi: 10. 5194/asr-8-135-2012.
    • (2012) Adv. Sci. Res. , vol.8 , pp. 135-141
    • Zalachori, I.1    Ramos, M.-H.2    Garçon, R.3    Mathevet, T.4    Gailhard, J.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.