Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 126, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 711-724

  Hamill, Thomas M ^a,b   Colucci, Stephen J ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001104165     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0711:EOEREP>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Review

References (27)

1. Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1529.
2. Black, T. L., 1994: The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 265-278.
3. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and S. Tibaldi, 1990: Extended-range predictions with EMCWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 867-912.
4. Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
5. Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell, and R. A. Maddox, 1992: On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 120-132.
6. Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
7. Carter, G. M., J. P. Dallavalle, and H. R. Glahn, 1989: Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 401-412.
8. Daan, H., 1985: Sensitivity of the verification scores to classification of the predictand. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1384-1392.
9. Dallavalle, J. P., J. S. Jensenius Jr., and S. A. Gilbert, 1992: NGM-based MOS guidance - The FOUS 14/FWC message. Technical Procedures Bulletin 408, NOAA/National Weather Service, Washington, DC, 9 pp. [Available from NOAA/NWS, Services Development Branch, 1325 East-West Highway, Room 13466, Silver Spring, MD 20910.]
10. Du, J., S. L. Mullen, and F. Sanders. 1997: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2427-2459
11. Emanuel, K. A., E. N. Lorenz, and R. E. Morss, 1996: Adaptive observations. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 67-69.
12. Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
13. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.. 125, 1312-1327.
14. Hastie, T. J., and R. J. Tibshirani, 1990: Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall, 335 pp.
15. Juang, H. M. and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26.
16. Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte-Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
17. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-140.
18. _, 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
19. Molteni, F. R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
20. Murphy, A. H., 1971: A note on the ranked probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 155-156.
21. _, 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
22. Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery, 1992: Numerical Recipes in Fortran. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 963 pp.
23. Rogers, E., T. L. Black, D. G. Deaven, and G. J. DiMego, 1996: Changes to operational "early" Eta analysis forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 391-413.
24. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
25. Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
26. Wilks, D. S., 1990: Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. J. Climate, 3, 1495-1501.
27. _, 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Intraduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.