Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 55, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 16-30

  Roulston, M S ^a,b   Smith, L A ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL METHOD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 0037262706     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.201378.x     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Abarbanel, H. D. I. 1995. Analysis of observed chaotic data. Springer-Verlag, New York.
2. Brier, G. W. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev. 78, 1-3.
3. Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. N. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887-2908.
4. Cover, T. M. and Thomas, J. A. 1991. Elements of information theory. John Wiley, New York, 542 pp.
5. Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. 1986. Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy. Stat. Sci. 1, 54-77.
6. Evans, R. E., Harrison, M. S. J., Graham, R. J. and Mylne, K. R. 2000. Joint medium-range ensembles from the Met Office and ECMWF systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 25, 3104-3127.
7. Hansen, J. A. 1998. Adaptive observations in spatially- extended nonlinear dynamical systems, Ph.D. Thesis, Oxford University.
8. Houtekamer, P. L., Lefaivre, L., Derome, J., Ritchie, H. and Mitchell, H. L. 1996. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 1225-1242.
9. Kelly, J. 1956. A new interpretation of information rate. Bell Sys. Tech. J. 35, 916-926.
10. Kennel, M. B., Brown, R. and Abarbanel, H. D. I. 1992. Determining minimum embedding dimension using a geometrical construction. Phys. Rev. A 45, 3403-3411.
11. Lorenz, E. N. 1995. Predictability-a problem partly solved. In: Predictability. ECMWF, Seminar Proceedings, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK.
12. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119.
13. Mylne, K. R., Evans, R. E. and Clark, R. T. 2002. Multi-model multi-analysis ensembles in quasi-operational medium-range forecasting. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 361-384.
14. Palmer, T. N. 2000. Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate. Rep. Progr. Phys. 63, 71-116.
15. Palmer, T. N. 2001. A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parameterization in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 279-304.
16. Roulston, M. S. and Smith, L. A. 2002. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1653-1660.
17. Smith, L. A. 1997. The maintenance of uncertainty. In: Proc. Inte. School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", 177-246. Course CXXXIII, Società Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy.
18. Smith, L. A., Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. 1999. Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2855-2886.
19. Stensrud, D. J., Brooks, H. E., Du, J., Tracton, M. S. and Rogers, E. 1999. Using ensembles for short-range forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 433-446.
20. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1997. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 3297-3319.