메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 22, Issue 6, 2007, Pages 1287-1303

Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FEEDFORWARD NEURAL NETWORKS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; SURVEYS;

EID: 38849171706     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2007WAF2006114.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (49)

References (40)
  • 1
    • 0141682983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration
    • Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 1509-1523
    • Atger, F.1
  • 2
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 3
    • 12944288520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
    • Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1076-1097
    • Buizza, R.1    Houtekamer, P.L.2    Toth, Z.3    Pellerin, G.4    Wei, M.5    Zhu, Y.6
  • 4
    • 0002802019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of a real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP: An update. Preprints
    • Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 2001: Implementation of a real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP: An update. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 355-356.
    • (2001) Ninth Conf. on Mesoscale Processes , pp. 355-356
    • Du, J.1    Tracton, M.S.2
  • 5
    • 34249748259 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New Dimension of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system: Inclusion of WRF members. Preprint
    • Exeter, United Kingdom, WMO, Available online at
    • Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, and H. Chuang, 2006: New Dimension of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system: Inclusion of WRF members. Preprint, WMO Expert Team Meeting on Ensemble Prediction System, Exeter, United Kingdom, WMO. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/ reference.html.]
    • (2006) WMO Expert Team Meeting on Ensemble Prediction System
    • Du, J.1    McQueen, J.2    DiMego, G.3    Toth, Z.4    Jovic, D.5    Zhou, B.6    Chuang, H.7
  • 6
    • 0032434899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble
    • Eckel, F. A., and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1132-1147.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 1132-1147
    • Eckel, F.A.1    Walters, M.K.2
  • 7
    • 23144455758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting
    • Eckel, F. A., and C. F. Mass, 2005: Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 328-350.
    • (2005) Wea. Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 328-350
    • Eckel, F.A.1    Mass, C.F.2
  • 8
    • 0001189393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Classification of ensemble forecasts by means of an artificial neural network
    • Eckert, P., D. Cattani, and J. Ambhul, 1996: Classification of ensemble forecasts by means of an artificial neural network. Meteor. Appl., 3, 169-178.
    • (1996) Meteor. Appl , vol.3 , pp. 169-178
    • Eckert, P.1    Cattani, D.2    Ambhul, J.3
  • 10
    • 0001737050 scopus 로고
    • The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting
    • Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 1203-1211.
    • (1972) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.11 , pp. 1203-1211
    • Glahn, H.R.1    Lowry, D.A.2
  • 11
    • 26844438590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
    • Gneiting, T., and A. E. Raftery, 2005: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , pp. 248-249
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 12
    • 0032710602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precipitation forecasting using a neural network
    • Hall, T., H. E. Brooks, and C. A. Doswell III, 1999: Precipitation forecasting using a neural network. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 338-345.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 338-345
    • Hall, T.1    Brooks, H.E.2    Doswell III, C.A.3
  • 13
    • 0002897679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 1312-1327
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 14
    • 0001104165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.126 , pp. 711-724
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 16
    • 32544435618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions
    • Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 33-46.
    • (2006) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.87 , pp. 33-46
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Whitaker, J.S.2    Mullen, S.L.3
  • 17
    • 0032466364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying neural network models to prediction and data analysis in meteorology and oceanography
    • Hsieh, W. W., and B. Tang, 1998: Applying neural network models to prediction and data analysis in meteorology and oceanography. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 1855-1870.
    • (1998) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.79 , pp. 1855-1870
    • Hsieh, W.W.1    Tang, B.2
  • 18
    • 0029413797 scopus 로고
    • Artificial neural network modeling of the rainfall-runoff process
    • Hsu, K., H. V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian, 1995: Artificial neural network modeling of the rainfall-runoff process. Water Resour. Res., 31, 2517-2530.
    • (1995) Water Resour. Res , vol.31 , pp. 2517-2530
    • Hsu, K.1    Gupta, H.V.2    Sorooshian, S.3
  • 19
    • 0031399333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks
    • Hsu, K., X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, and H. V. Gupta, 1997: Precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks. J. Appl. Meteor., 36, 1176-1190.
    • (1997) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.36 , pp. 1176-1190
    • Hsu, K.1    Gao, X.2    Sorooshian, S.3    Gupta, H.V.4
  • 20
    • 0032917913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of physical variables from multichannel remotely sensed imagery using a neural network: Application to rainfall estimation
    • Hsu, K., H. V. Gupta, X. Gao, and S. Sorooshian, 1999: Estimation of physical variables from multichannel remotely sensed imagery using a neural network: Application to rainfall estimation. Water Resour. Res., 35, 1605-1618.
    • (1999) Water Resour. Res , vol.35 , pp. 1605-1618
    • Hsu, K.1    Gupta, H.V.2    Gao, X.3    Sorooshian, S.4
  • 22
    • 0028582476 scopus 로고
    • The NMC nested regional spectral model
    • Juang, H.-M. H., and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.122 , pp. 3-26
    • Juang, H.-M.H.1    Kanamitsu, M.2
  • 23
    • 0033079831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An objective method to modify numerical model forecasts with newly given weather data using an artificial neural network
    • Koizumi, K., 1999: An objective method to modify numerical model forecasts with newly given weather data using an artificial neural network. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 109-118.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 109-118
    • Koizumi, K.1
  • 25
    • 0032434569 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Localized precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model using artificial neural networks
    • Kuligowski, R. J., and A. P. Barros, 1998: Localized precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model using artificial neural networks. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1194-1204.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 1194-1204
    • Kuligowski, R.J.1    Barros, A.P.2
  • 26
    • 32044452666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of sounding-derived indices for a neural network short-term thunderstorm forecast
    • Manzato, A., 2005: The use of sounding-derived indices for a neural network short-term thunderstorm forecast. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 896-917.
    • (2005) Wea. Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 896-917
    • Manzato, A.1
  • 27
    • 0038508745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neural networks for postprocessing model output: ARPS
    • Marzban, C., 2003: Neural networks for postprocessing model output: ARPS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1103-1111.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 1103-1111
    • Marzban, C.1
  • 28
    • 1842827654 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IFPS and the future of the National Weather Service
    • Mass, C. F., 2003: IFPS and the future of the National Weather Service. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 75-79.
    • (2003) Wea. Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 75-79
    • Mass, C.F.1
  • 29
    • 38849149531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an artificial neural network. Preprints
    • Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2004: Calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an artificial neural network. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J5.6.
    • (2004) 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 30
    • 4243356391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Postprocessing of ETA/RSM ensemble precipitation forecasts by a neural network. Preprints
    • Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Mullen, S. L., M. Poulton, H. E. Brooks, and T. M. Hamill, 1998: Postprocessing of ETA/RSM ensemble precipitation forecasts by a neural network. Preprints, First Conf. on Artificial Intelligence, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J31-J33.
    • (1998) First Conf. on Artificial Intelligence
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Poulton, M.2    Brooks, H.E.3    Hamill, T.M.4
  • 31
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A new vector partition of the probability score
    • Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.12 , pp. 595-600
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 32
    • 0023486961 scopus 로고
    • A general framework for forecast verification
    • Murphy, S. L., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.115 , pp. 1330-1338
    • Murphy, S.L.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 33
    • 0029538471 scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of 33 years of quantitative precipitation forecasting at the NMC
    • Olson, D. A., N. W. Junker, and B. Korty, 1995: Evaluation of 33 years of quantitative precipitation forecasting at the NMC. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 498-511.
    • (1995) Wea. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 498-511
    • Olson, D.A.1    Junker, N.W.2    Korty, B.3
  • 35
    • 3142698522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis of the spread-skill relations using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System over Europe
    • Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, P. Eckert, and D. Cattani, 2004: Analysis of the spread-skill relations using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System over Europe. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 552-565.
    • (2004) Wea. Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 552-565
    • Scherrer, S.C.1    Appenzeller, C.2    Eckert, P.3    Cattani, D.4
  • 36
    • 0033825565 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems
    • Stensrud, D. J., J. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 2000: Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2077-2107.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 2077-2107
    • Stensrud, D.J.1    Bao, J.2    Warner, T.T.3
  • 37
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 38
    • 38849093090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
    • 11 pp, Available online at
    • Tracton, M. S., and J. Du, 2001: Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, WMO Ensemble Expert Meeting Lecture 11, 11 pp. [Available online at http:// www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/Tracton_Du.forWMO2001.doc.]
    • (2001) WMO Ensemble Expert Meeting Lecture , vol.11
    • Tracton, M.S.1    Du, J.2
  • 40
    • 14344264930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system
    • Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H. Juang, 2005: Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 279-294.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.133 , pp. 279-294
    • Yuan, H.1    Mullen, S.L.2    Gao, X.3    Sorooshian, S.4    Du, J.5    Juang, H.H.6


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.