Predicting cycling accident risk in Brussels: A spatial case-control approach

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 62, Issue , 2014, Pages 341-357

  Vandenbulcke, Grégory ^a   Thomas, Isabelle ^a,b   Int Panis, Luc ^c,d  

^a UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^b National Fund for Scientific Research (FRS FNRS)   (Belgium)

^c FLEMISH INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH VITO   (Belgium)

^d HASSELT UNIVERSITY   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Accident risk; Bayesian framework; Bicycle accident; Case control strategy; Cycling; Risk factors

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT RISKS; BAYESIAN FRAMEWORKS; BICYCLE ACCIDENTS; CASE-CONTROL; CYCLING; RISK FACTORS;

COMPLEX NETWORKS; TRAFFIC CONTROL;

ACCIDENTS;

ACCIDENT RISK; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK; BELGIUM; BICYCLE; BICYCLE ACCIDENT; CASE CONTROL STUDY; CASE-CONTROL STRATEGY; CITY PLANNING; CYCLING; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; HUMAN; INJURY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT;

ACCIDENT RISK; BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK; BICYCLE ACCIDENT; CASE-CONTROL STRATEGY; CYCLING; RISK FACTORS;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; BAYES THEOREM; BELGIUM; BICYCLING; CASE-CONTROL STUDIES; CITY PLANNING; ENVIRONMENT DESIGN; HUMANS; LOGISTIC MODELS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; SPATIAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84890114802     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.07.001     Document Type: Article

References (109)

1. J. Aertsens, B. de Geus, G. Vandenbulcke, B. Degraeuwe, S. Broekx, L. De Nocker, I. Liekens, I. Mayeres, R. Meeusen, I. Thomas, R. Torfs, H. Willems, and L. Int Panis Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 2010 2149 2157
2. J. Aguero-Valverde, and P. Jovanis Spatial analysis of fatal and injury crashes in Pennsylvania Accident Analysis and Prevention 38 2006 618 625
3. T. Anderson Kernel density estimation and K-means clustering to profile road accident hotspots Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 2009 359 364
4. L. Anselin Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa: A Workbook 2005 Spatial Analysis Laboratory and Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science http://geodacenter.asu.edu/learning/tutorials
5. L. Aultman-Hall, and F. Hall Ottawa-Carleton commuter cyclist on- and off-road incident rates Accident Analysis and Prevention 30 1 1998 29 43 (Pubitemid 128387181)
6. L. Aultman-Hall, and M. Kaltenecker Toronto bicycle commuter safety rates Accident Analysis and Prevention 31 6 1999 675 686 (Pubitemid 129525500)
7. T. Bailey, and A. Gatrell Interactive Spatial Data Analysis 1995 Longman Scientific & Technical Burt Hill, UK
8. N. Best, M. Cowles, and S. Vines CODA Manual v0.30 1995 MRC Biostatistics Cambridge
9. R. Bivand, E. Pebesma, and V. Gomez-Rubio Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R 2008 Springer New York
10. I. Bos, P. De Boever, J. Vanparijs, N. Pattyn, L. Int Panis, and R. Meeusen Subclinical effects of aerobic training in urban environment Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 45 3 2013 439 447
11. BRSI (Belgian Road Safety Institute) Accidents de cyclistes en contexte urbain - Trois années (1998-2000) d'accidents corporels de cyclistes sur les voiries régionales de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale 2006 IBSR/BIVV Brussels
12. BRSI (Belgian Road Safety Institute) Rapport thématique Cyclistes: accidents de la route impliquant des cyclistes (2000-2007) 2009 IBSR/BIVV Brussels
13. BRSI (Belgian Road Safety Institute) Mesure nationale de comportement en matière de vitesse (2003-2007) 2009 IBSR/BIVV Brussels
14. BRSI (Belgian Road Safety Institute) Le SUL. Cyclistes à contresens dans les sens uniques. Conseils aux usagers 2013 IBSR/BIVV Brussels (available online)
15. R. Buehler, J. Pucher, D. Merom, and A. Bauman Active travel in Germany and the U.S. - contributions of daily walking and cycling to physical activity American Journal of Preventive Medicine 41 3 2011 241 250
16. I. Cameron, N. Harris, and N. Kehoe Tram-related injuries in Sheffield Injury 32 4 2001 275 277 (Pubitemid 32372630)
17. L. Chapman Transport and climate change: a review Journal of Transport Geography 15 2007 354 367 (Pubitemid 47209222)
18. G. Cho, D. Rodríguez, and A. Khattak The role of built environment in explaining relationships between perceived and actual pedestrian and bicyclist safety Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 2009 692 702
19. S. Chong, R. Poulos, J. Olivier, W.L. Watson, and R. Grzebieta Relative injury severity among vulnerable non-motorised road users: comparative analysis of injury arising from bicycle-motor vehicle and bicycle-pedestrian collisions Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 2010 290 296
20. D. Dai, E. Taquechel, J. Steward, and S. Strasser The impact of built environment on pedestrian crashes and the identification of crash clusters on an urban University campus Western Journal of Emergency Medicine XI 3 2010 294 301
21. S. Daniels, E. Nuyts, and G. Wets The effects of roundabouts on traffic safety for bicyclists: an observational study Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2008 518 526 (Pubitemid 351329242)
22. S. Daniels, T. Brijs, E. Nuyts, and G. Wets Injury crashes with bicyclists at roundabouts: influence of some location characteristics and the design of cycle facilities Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2009 141 148
23. B. de Geus, G. Vandenbulcke, L. Int Panis, I. Thomas, B. Degraeuwe, E. Cumps, J. Aertsens, R. Torfs, and R. Meeusen A prospective cohort study on minor accidents involving commuter cyclists in Belgium Accident Analysis and Prevention 45 2012 683 693
24. B. de Geus, B. Degraeuwe, G. Vandenbulcke, L. Int Panis, I. Thomas, J. Aertsens, Y. De Weerdt, R. Torfs, and R. Meeusen Utilitarian cycling in Belgium: a cross-sectional study in a sample of regular cyclists Journal of Physical Activity & Health 11 7 2014 (online ahead of print 23/05/2013)
25. J. de Hartog, H. Boogaard, H. Nijland, and G. Hoek Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks? Environmental Health Perspectives 118 8 2010 109 1116
26. M. de Lapparent Individual cyclists' probability distributions of severe/fatal crashes in large french urban areas Accident Analysis and Prevention 37 2005 1086 1092 (Pubitemid 41475569)
27. A. de Nazelle, M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen, J.M. Antó, M. Brauer, D. Briggs, C. Braun-Fahrlander, N. Cavill, A.R. Cooper, H. Desqueyroux, S. Fruin, G. Hoek, L. Int Panis, N. Janssen, M. Jerrett, M. Joffe, Z.J. Andersen, E. van Kempen, S. Kingham, N. Kubesch, K. Leyden, J.D. Marshall, J. Matamala, G. Mellios, M. Mendez, H. Nassif, D. Ogilvie, R. Peiró, K. Pérez, A. Rabl, M. Ragettli, D. Rodríguez, D. Rojas, P. Ruiz, J.F. Sallis, J. Terwoert, J.F. Toussaint, J. Tuomisto, M. Zuurbier, and E. Lebret Improving health through policies that promote active travel: a review of evidence to support integrated health impact assessment Environment International 37 4 2011 766 777
28. P. Diggle A point process modelling approach to raised incidence of a rare phenomenon in the vicinity of a prespecified point Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 153 3 1990 349 362
29. R. Doom, and P. Derweduwen Optimalisatie van de verkeersongevallenstatistieken. Research contracts CP/02/392, CP/F1/391 (final report) for BRSI, CDO and Belgian Science Policy 2005 (available online)
30. C. Dormann Assessing the validity of autologistic regression Ecological Modelling 207 2007 234 242 (Pubitemid 47362484)
31. C. Dormann, J. McPherson, M. Araújo, R. Bivand, J. Bolliger, G. Carl, R. Davies, A. Hirzel, W. Jetz, W.D. Kissling, I. Kühn, R. Ohlemüller, P. Peres-Neto, B. Reineking, B. Schröder, F. Schurr, and R. Wilson Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review Ecography 30 2007 609 628 (Pubitemid 350060576)
32. E. Dumbaugh, and R. Rae Safe urban form: revisiting the relationship between community design and traffic safety Journal of the American Planning Association 75 3 2009 309 329
33. N. Eluru, C.R. Bhat, and D.A. Hensher A mixed generalized ordered response model for examining pedestrian and bicyclist injury severity level in traffic crashes Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2008 1033 1054
34. R. Elvik Laws of accident causation Accident Analysis and Prevention 38 2006 742 747
35. R. Elvik The non-linearity of risk and the promotion of environmentally sustainable transport Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 4 2009 849 855
36. ERSO (European Road Safety Observatory) Pedestrians & Cyclists 2006 Retrieved 04.17.11 from www.erso.eu
37. B. Flahaut Impact of infrastructure and local environment on road unsafety: logistic modelling with spatial autocorrelation Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 6 2004 1055 1066
38. J. Forester Bicycle Transportation - A Handbook for Cycling Transportation Engineers 1994 MIT Cambridge, USA
39. A. Fotheringham, C. Brunsdon, and M. Charlton Quantitative Geography: Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis 2000 Sage Publications London, UK
40. S. Geertman, and J. Ritsema van Eck GIS and models of accessibility potential: an application in planning International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 9 1 1995 67 80
41. A. Gelman, and J. Hill Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models 2007 Cambridge University Press New York
42. K. Geurs, and B. van Wee Accessibility of land-use and transport strategies: review and research directions Journal of Transport Geography 12 2004 127 140 (Pubitemid 38522409)
43. P. Greibe Accident prediction models for urban roads Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 2003 273 285
44. D. Grimes, and K. Schulz Compared to what? Finding controls for case-control studies The Lancet 365 2005 1429 1433 (Pubitemid 40523738)
45. R. Haining, J. Law, and D. Griffith Modelling small area counts in the presence of overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53 2009 2923 2937
46. M. Haque, H. Chin, and H. Huang Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 2010 203 212
47. M. Harris, C. Reynolds, M. Winters, M. Chipman, P.A. Cripton, M. Cusimano, and K. Teschke The bicyclists' injuries and the cycling environment study: a protocol to tackle methodological issues facing studies of bicycling safety Injury Prevention 17 5 2011 10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040071
48. R. Haynes, A. Lovett, and G. Sünnenberg Potential accessibility, travel time, and consumer choice: geographical variations in general medical practice registrations in Eastern England Environment and Planning A 35 2003 1733 1750 (Pubitemid 37489210)
49. A. Hedelin, U. Björnstig, and B. Brismar Trams - A risk factor for pedestrians Accident Analysis and Prevention 28 6 1996 733 738 (Pubitemid 126371142)
50. T. Hels, and I. Orozova-Bekkevold The effect of roundabout design features on cyclist accident rate Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 2007 300 307 (Pubitemid 44872985)
51. M. Hossain, and A. Lawson Approximate methods in Bayesian point process spatial models Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53 2009 2831 2842
52. J.-P. Hubert, and P. Toint La mobilité quotidienne des belges 2002 Presses Univ. de Namur
53. L. Int Panis, B. de Geus, G. Vandenbulcke, H. Willems, B. Degraeuwe, N. Bleux, V. Mishra, I. Thomas, and R. Meeusen Exposure to particulate matter in traffic: a comparison of cyclists and car passengers Atmospheric Environment 44 2010 2263 2270
54. L. Int Panis Cycling: health benefits and risks Environmental Health Perspectives 119 3 2011 A114
55. P. Jacobsen Safety in numbers: more walkers and bicyclists, safer walking and bicycling Injury Prevention 9 2003 205 209
56. G. Khan, K. Santiago-Chaparro, X. Qin, and D. Noyce Application and integration of lattice data analysis network K-functions, and GIS to study ice-related crashes Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2136 2009 67 76
57. M. Kéry Introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists. A Bayesian Approach to Regression, ANOVA, Mixed Models and Related Analyses 2010 Academic Press Amsterdam
58. J-K. Kim, S. Kim, G. Ulfarsson, and L. Porrello Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 2007 238 251 (Pubitemid 44872982)
59. J. Klop, and A. Khattak Factors influencing bicycle crash severity on two-lane, undivided roadways in North-Carolina Transportation Research Record 1674 1999 78 85 (Pubitemid 30552690)
60. K.J. Krizek, and R. Roland What is at the end of the road? Understanding discontinuities of on-street bicycle lanes in urban settings Transportation Research, Part D 10 1 2005 55 68 (Pubitemid 40014405)
61. J. Law, R. Haining, R. Maheswaran, and T. Pearson Analyzing the relationship between smoking and coronary heart disease at the small area level: a Bayesian approach to spatial modeling Geographical Analysis 38 2006 140 159
62. A. Lawson Bayesian Disease Mapping Hierarchical Modelling in Spatial Epidemiology 2009 Chapman and Hall London
63. N. Levine, K. Kim, and L. Nitz Spatial analysis of Honolulu motor vehicle crashes: I. Spatial patterns Accident Analysis and Prevention 27 5 1995 663 674
64. N. Levine, K. Kim, and L. Nitz Spatial analysis of Honolulu motor vehicle crashes: II. Zonal generators Accident Analysis and Prevention 27 5 1995 675 685
65. L. Li, L. Zhu, and D. Sui A GIS-based Bayesian approach for analyzing spatial-temporal patterns of intra-city motor vehicle crashes Journal of Transport Geography 15 4 2007 274 285 (Pubitemid 46760608)
66. Y. Liu, and D. Jarrett Spatial distribution of road crashes in Great Britain Journal of Maps 2008 91 107
67. B. Loo, and K. Tsui Bicycle crash casualties in a highly motorized city Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 6 2010 1902 1907
68. D. Lord, and F. Mannering The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives Transportation Research Part A 44 2010 291 305
69. A.C. Lusk, P.G. Furth, P. Morency, L.F. Miranda-Moreno, W.C. Willett, and J.T. Dennerlein Risk of injury for bicycling on cycle tracks versus in the street Injury Prevention 17 2 2011 131 135
70. M. McCarthy, and K. Gilbert Cyclist road deaths in London 1985-1992: drivers, vehicles, manoeuvres and injuries Accident Analysis and Prevention 28 2 1996 275 279 (Pubitemid 126338553)
71. H. McClintock, and J. Cleary Cycle facilities and cyclists' safety - experience from Greater Nottingham and lessons for future cycling provision Transport Policy 3 1996 67 77
72. S.-P. Miaou, J. Song, and B. Mallick Roadway traffic crash mapping: a space-time modelling approach Journal of Transportation and Statistics 6 1 2003 33 57
73. J. Miller, J. Franklin, and R. Aspinall Incorporating spatial dependence in predictive vegetation models Ecological Modelling 202 2007 225 242 (Pubitemid 46356707)
74. M. Møller, and T. Hels Cyclists' perception of risk in roundabouts Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2008 1055 1062
75. S. Myint An exploration of spatial dispersion, pattern and association of socio-economic functional units in an urban system Applied Geography 28 2008 168 188
76. R. Noland, and M. Quddus A spatially disaggregate analysis of road casualties in England Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 2004 973 984
77. I. Ntzoufras Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS 2009 John Wiley & Sons New Jersey
78. A. Okabe, T. Satoh, and K. Sugihara A kernel density estimation method for networks, its computational method and a GIS-based tool International Journal of Geographical Information Science 23 1 2009 7 32
79. C-W. Pai Overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles. An empirical investigation Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 2011 1228 1235
80. J. Parkin, and C. Meyers The effect of cycle lanes on the proximity between motor traffic and cycle traffic Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 2010 159 165
81. J. Parkin, M. Wardman, and M. Page Models of perceived cycling risk and route acceptability Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 2 2007 364 371 (Pubitemid 44854775)
82. X. Pei, S.C. Wong, and N.N. Sze A joint-probability approach to crash prediction models Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 3 2010 1160 1166
83. Polis Securing the Benefits of Active Travel in Europe 2012 Position Paper (available online)
84. J. Pucher, C. Komanoff, and P. Schimek Bicycling renaissance in North America? Recent trends and alternatives policies to promote bicycling Transportation Research 33A 1999 625 654 (Pubitemid 29511585)
85. J. Pucher, and L. Dijkstra Promoting safe walking and cycling to improve public health: lessons from the Netherlands and Germany Public Health Matters 93 9 2003 1509 1516 (Pubitemid 38477677)
86. J. Pucher, and R. Buehler Making cycling irresistible: lessons from the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany Transport Reviews 28 4 2008 495 528
87. M. Quddus Modelling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity. An analysis of London crash data Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 2008 1486 1497
88. A. Rabl, and A. de Nazelle Assessment of health costs and benefits for active transport Transport Policy 19 2011 121 131
89. M. Räsänen, and H. Summala Attention and expectation problems in bicycle-car collisions: an in depth study Accident Analysis and Prevention 30 5 1998 657 666 (Pubitemid 128414296)
90. C. Reynolds, M. Harris, K. Teschke, P. Cripton, and M. Winters The impact of transportation infrastructure on bicycling injuries and crashes: a review of the literature Environmental Health 8 47 2009
91. S. Rifaat, R. Tay, and A. de Barros Effect of street pattern on the severity of crashes involving vulnerable road users Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 2011 276 283
92. G. Rodgers Factors associated with the crash risk of adult bicyclists Journal of Safety Research 28 4 1997 233 241 (Pubitemid 127425372)
93. D. Rojas-Rueda, A. de Nazelle, M. Tainio, and M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen The health risks and benefits of cycling in urban environments compared with car use: health impact assessment study British Medical Journal 343 2011 d4521
94. J. Schepers, P. Kroeze, W. Sweers, and J. Wuüst Road factors and bicycle-motor vehicle crashes at unsignalized priority intersections Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 3 2011 853 861
95. S. Shiode Analysis of a distribution of point events using the network based quadrat method Geographical Analysis 40 2008 380 400
96. S. Sturtz, U. Ligges, and A. Gelman R2WinBUGS: a package for running WinBUGS from R Journal of Statistical Software 12 3 2005
97. J.-C. Thill, and M. Kim Trip making, induced travel demand, and accessibility Journal of Geographical Systems 7 2005 229 248 (Pubitemid 40885513)
98. B. Thomas, and M. DeRobertis The safety of urban cycle tracks: a review of the literature Accident Analysis and Prevention 52 2013 219 227
99. R. Unger, C. Eder, J.M. Mayr, and J. Wernig Child pedestrian injuries at tram and bus stops Injury 33 6 2002 485 488 (Pubitemid 34722742)
100. G. Vandenbulcke Spatial Analysis of Bicycle Use and Accident Risks for Cyclists 2011 Université catholique de Louvain PhD Thesis, 263p.
101. G. Vandenbulcke, I. Thomas, B. de Geus, B. Degraeuwe, R. Torfs, R. Meeusen, and L. Int Panis Mapping bicycle use and the risk of accidents for commuters who cycle to work in Belgium Transport Policy 16 2009 77 87
102. G. Vandenbulcke, C. Dujardin, I. Thomas, B. de Geus, B. Degraeuwe, R. Torfs, R. Meeusen, and L. Int Panis Cycle commuting in Belgium: spatial determinants and 're-cycling' strategies Transportation Research Part A 45 2011 118 137
103. C. Wang, M. Quddus, and S. Ison Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 2009 798 808
104. Y. Wang, and N. Nihan Estimating the risk of collisions between bicycles and motor vehicles at signalized intersections Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 2004 313 321
105. WHO (World Health Organization) A Physically Active Life Through Everyday Transport, with a Special Focus on Children and Older People, and Examples and Approaches from Europe 2002 Regional Office for Europe Copenhagen
106. M. Winters, G. Davidson, D. Kao, and K. Teschke Motivators and deterrents of bicycling: comparing influences on decisions to ride Transportation 38 2011 153 168
107. X. Yan, M. Ma, H. Huang, M. Abdel-Aty, and C. Wu Motor vehicle bicycle crashes in Beijing: irregular manoeuvers, crash patterns, and injury severity Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 5 2011 1751 1758
108. F. Ye, and D. Lord Investigating the effects of underreporting of crash data on three commonly used traffic crash severity models: multinomial logit, ordered probit and mixed logit models Transportation Research Record 2241 2011 51 58
109. L. Zhu, D.M. Gorman, and S. Horel Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for alcohol availability, drug hot spots and violent crime International Journal of Health Geographics 5 54 2006