Assessment of the long-lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983-2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 117, Issue 4, 2012, Pages

  Sohn, Soo Jin ^a,b   Min, Young Mi ^a   Lee, June Yi ^c   Tam, Chi Yung ^d   Kang, In Sik ^e   Wang, Bin ^c   Ahn, Joong Bae ^b   Yamagata, Toshio ^f  

^a APEC Climate Center   (South Korea)

^b Pusan National University   (South Korea)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^d CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^e Seoul National University   (South Korea)

^f TOKYO UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; STATISTICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ASIAN SUMMER MONSOONS; BOREAL SPRING; COUPLED MODELS; FORECAST SYSTEMS; HINDCASTS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; MULTI-MODEL; MULTIMODEL SYSTEMS; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION; REAL-TIME FORECASTS; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; STATISTICAL MODELS; SUMMER PRECIPITATION; TELECONNECTIONS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HINDCASTING; MONSOON; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PROBABILITY; SUMMER; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ASIA;

NIA;

EID: 84863125048     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016308     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, P. Rogel, and A. Weisheimer (2011), Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBELS multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 581-607, doi:10.1175/ 2010MWR3417.1.
2. Anderson, J., H. van den Dool, A. G. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay (1999), Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80(7), 1349-1361, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)0801349: PDCONA2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 129572779)
3. Ashok, K., and T. Yamagata (2009), The El Nino with a difference, Nature, 461, 481-484, doi:10.1038/461481a.
4. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata (2007), El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
5. Atger, F. (2003), Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 1509-1523, doi:10.1175//1520-0493(2003)131 1509:SAIVOT2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 37124285)
6. Atger, F. (2004), Estimation of the reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 627-646, doi:10.1256/qj.03.23. (Pubitemid 38377848)
7. Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He (1999), Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Nino episode and the 1998 La Nino onset, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 217-243, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)0800217:PSOSAD2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 129565081)
8. Chowdary, J., S. P. Xie, J. Y. Lee, Y. Kosak, and B. Wang (2010), Predictability of summer Northwest Pacific climate in eleven coupled model hindcasts: Local and remote forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D22121, doi:10.1029/2010JD014595.
9. Climate Test Bed (2006), Multi-model ensembles: Transition from research to operations and implementation strategy, report, NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. Available at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ctb/ctb-publications.shtml.
10. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Deque, and J. P. Piedelievre (2000), Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2069-2088, doi:10.1256/smsqj.56704.
11. Feng, J., W. Chen, C. Y. Tam, and W. Zhou (2011), Different impacts of El Niño and El Niño Modoki on China rainfall in the decaying phases, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 2091-2101, doi:10.1002/joc.2217.
12. Graham, R. J., et al. (2005), A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model, Tellus, Ser. A, 57(3), 320-339, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00116.x. (Pubitemid 40659627)
13. Green, D. M., and J. A. Swets (1966), Signal Detection Theory and Psycho-physics, Wiley, New York.
14. Ham, Y. G., and I. S. Kang (2010), Improvement of seasonal forecasts with inclusion of tropical instability waves on initial conditions, Clim. Dyn., 36(7-8), 1277-1290, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0743-0.
15. Janowiak, J. E., and P. Xie (1999), CAMS-OPI: A global satellite-rain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications, J. Clim., 12, 3335-3342, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)0123335:COAGSR2.0.CO;2.
16. Jeong, H. I., et al. (2008), Experimental 6-month hindcast and forecast simulation using CCSM3, APCC 2008 Tech. Rep, APEC Clim. Cent., Pusan, South Korea.
17. Jin, E. K., et al. (2008), Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Clim. Dyn., 31(6), 647-664, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.
18. Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson (2003), Forecast Verification, John Wiley, Chichester, U. K.
19. Kao, H. Y., and J. Y. Yu (2009), Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO, J. Clim., 22, 615-632, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2309. 1.
20. Krishnamurti, T. N., et al. (1999), Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble, Science, 285, 1548-1550, doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548. (Pubitemid 29420575)
21. Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, D. W. Shin, and C. E. Williford (2000), Multi-model superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate, J. Clim., 13, 4196-4216, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0134196:MEFFWA2.0.CO;2.
22. Krzysztofowicz, R. (1983), Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes theorem, Water Resour. Res., 19, 327-336, doi:10.1029/WR019i002p00327.
23. Kug, J. S., J. Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, B. Wang, and C. K. Park (2008), Optimal multi-model ensemble method in seasonal climate prediction, Asia-Pac. J. Atmospheric Sci., 44, 259-267.
24. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, and M. A. Cane (1999), On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO, Science, 284, 2156-2159, doi:10.1126/science.284.5423.2156. (Pubitemid 29297471)
25. Kung, E. C., and T. A. Sharif (1982), Long range forecasting of the Indian summer monsoon onset and rainfall with upper air parameters and SST, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 60, 672-681.
26. Kwon, M. H., J. G. Jhun, B. Wang, S. I. An, and J. S. Kug (2005), Decadal change in relationship between east Asian and WNP summer monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16709, doi:10.1029/2005GL023026. (Pubitemid 41461671)
27. Lee, E. J., J. G. Jhun, and C. K. Park (2005), Remote connection of the northeast Asian summer rainfall variation reveled by a newly defined monsoon index, J. Clim., 18, 4381-4393, doi:10.1175/JCLI3545.1. (Pubitemid 41805478)
28. Lee, J.-Y., and B. Wang (2012), Seasonal climate prediction and predictability of atmospheric circulation, in Climate Models, edited by L. M. Druyan, InTech, Rijeka, Croatia, in press.
29. Lee, J.-Y., et al. (2010), How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?, Clim. Dyn., 35, 267-283, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0857-4.
30. Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, Q. Ding, K. J. Ha, J. B. Ahn, A. Kumar, B. Stern, and O. Alves (2011), How predictable is the Northern Hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?, Clim. Dyn., 37, 1189-1203, doi:10.1007/s00382- 010-0909-9.
31. Lee, S. S., J. Y. Lee, K. J. Ha, B. Wang, and J. K. E. Schemm (2011), Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1173-1188, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0832-0.
32. Lee, W. J., et al. (2009), APEC 2009 final report, report, APEC Clim. Cent., Pusan, South Korea. Available at http://www.apcc21.net/en/activities/ publications/reports/.
33. Liang, J., S. Yang, Z. Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar, and Z. Zhang (2009), Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS, Clim. Dyn., 32, 989-1001, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0420-8.
34. Luo, J. J., et al. (2005), Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts, J. Clim., 18, 4474-4497, doi:10.1175/JCLI3526.1. (Pubitemid 41805484)
35. Mason, I. (1982), A model for assessment of weather forecast, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 30, 291-303.
36. Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham (1999), Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating level, Weather Forecast., 14, 713-725, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1999)0140713:CPROCA2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 30065843)
37. McBride, J. L., and N. Nicholls (1983), Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1998-2004, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)1111998:SRBARA2.0.CO;2.
38. Min, H. J., and J. G. Jhun (2010), The change in the East Asian summer monsoon simulated by the MIROC3.2 high-resolution coupled model under global warming scenarios, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 73-88, doi:10.1007/s13143-010- 0008-1.
39. Min, Y. M., V. N. Kryjov, and C. K. Park (2009), A probabilistic multimo-del ensemble approach to seasonal prediction, Weather Forecast., 24, 812-828, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222140.1.
40. Murphy, A. H. (1973), A new vector partition of the probability score, J. Appl. Meteorol., 12, 595-600, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)0120595: ANVPOT2.0.CO;2.
41. Murphy, A. H. (1977), The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ration situation, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 803-816, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1977)1050803:TVOCCA2.0.CO;2.
42. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler (1977), Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperatures, Appl. Stat., 26, 41-47, doi:10.2307/2346866.
43. Nicholls, N. (1984), The stability of empirical long range forecast techniques: A case study, J. Appl. Meteorol., 23, 143-147, doi:10.1175/1520- 0450(1984)0230143:TSOELR2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 14564497)
44. Palmer, T. N., C. Brankovic, and D. S. Richardson (2000), A probability and decision-model analysis of PROBOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2013-2033, doi:10.1256/smsqj.56702. (Pubitemid 30667273)
45. Palmer, T. N., et al. (2004), Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 853-872, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
46. Rajeevan, M., D. S. Pai, R. Anil Kumar, and B. Lal (2007), New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, Clim. Dyn., 28, 813-828, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0197-6. (Pubitemid 46672591)
47. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang (2002), An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate, J. Clim., 15, 1609-1625, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0151609:AIISAS2.0.CO;2.
48. Richardson, D. S. (2000), Skill and economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 649-667, doi:10.1002/qj. 49712656313. (Pubitemid 30233810)
49. Richardson, D. S. (2006), Predictability and economic value, in Predictability of Weather and Climate, edited by T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, pp. 628-644, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., doi:10.1017/CBO9780511617652. 026.
50. Saha, S., et al. (2006), The NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Clim., 19, 3483-3517, doi:10.1175/JCLI3812.1. (Pubitemid 44323306)
51. Shukla, J., et al. (2000), Dynamical seasonal prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2593-2606, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)0812593:DSP2.3. CO;2.
52. Sikka, D. R. (2003), Evaluation of monitoring and forecasting of summer monsoon over India and a review of monsoon drought of 2002, Proc. Indian Natl. Sci. Acad., Part A, 69, 474-504.
53. Slingo, J. M., and H. Annamalai (2000), 1997: The El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon, Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1778-1797, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)1281778:TENOOT2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 30464417)
54. Sohn, S. J., C. Y. Tam, K. Ashok, and J. B. Ahn (2012), Quantifying the reliability of precipitation datasets for monitoring large-scale East Asian precipitation variations, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2380, in press.
55. Stanski, H., L. Wilson, and W. Burrows (1989), Survey of common verification methods in meteorology, Tech. Rep. WMO/TD 358, World Meteorol. Org., Geneva, Switzerland.
56. Stephenson, D. B., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2000), Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts, Tellus, Ser. A, 52, 300-322. (Pubitemid 30259864)
57. Swets, J. A. (1973), The relative operating characteristics in psychology, Science, 182, 990-1000, doi:10.1126/science.182.4116.990.
58. van Oldenborgh, G. J., M. A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T. N. Stockdale, and D. L. T. Anderson (2005), Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years?, J. Clim., 18, 3240-3249, doi:10.1175/JCLI3420.1. (Pubitemid 41461354)
59. Wang, B., I. S. Kang, and J. Y. Lee (2004), Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs, J. Clim., 17, 803-818, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)0170803:ESOAMV2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 38454135)
60. Wang, B., J. Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, J. Shukla, N. H. Saji, and C. K. Park (2007), Coupled predictability of seasonal tropical precipitation, CLIVAR Exch., 12, 17-18.
61. Wang, B., et al. (2008), How accurately do coupled climate models predict the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?, Clim. Dyn., 30, 605-619, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5.
62. Wang, B., et al. (2009), Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004), Clim. Dyn., 33, 93-117, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
63. Wilks, D. S. (1995), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, Academic, San Diego, Calif.
64. World Meteorological Organization (2002), Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF): New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPS, Vol. 1., WMO 485, 24 pp., Geneva, Switzerland.
65. Wu, Z., B. Wang, J. Li, and F. F. Jin (2009), An empirical seasonal prediction model of the east Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18120, doi:10.1029/2009JD011733.
66. Yu, J. Y., and H. K. Kao (2007), Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices: 1958-2001, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D13106, doi:10.1029/2006JD007654. (Pubitemid 47408355)
67. Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne (2002), The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73-83, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)0830073:TEVOEB2.3. CO;2. (Pubitemid 34433974)