The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 83, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 73-83

  Zhu, Yuejian ^a   Toth, Zoltan ^a   Wobus, Richard ^a   Richardson, David ^a   Mylne, Kenneth ^a  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; COST EFFECTIVENESS; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING; METEOROLOGY; PROBABILITY;

ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS; ATMOSPHERIC MODELS; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0036237584     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0073:TEVOEB>2.3.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. The skill of ensemble prediction systems
2. Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
3. Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system
4. Changes to the 1998 NCEP operational MRF model analysis-forecast system
5. Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality and accuracy
6. The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behaviour
7. Methods for ensemble prediction
8. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction
9. Operation of medium range ensemble prediction system
10. Dynamical one-month forecasting at JMA
11. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
12. A model for the assessment of weather forecasts
13. The ECMWF ensemble system: Methodology and validation
14. A note on the utility of probabilistic predictions and the probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation
15. The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation
16. Hedging and the mode of expression of weather forecasts
17. Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation
18. Comparative evaluation of categorical and probabilistic forecasts: Two alternatives to the traditional approach
19. The use of forecast value calculations for optimal decision making using probability forecasts
20. Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value
21. Who decides? Forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River floods
22. The ensemble forecast system (EFS)
23. Skill and economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
24. Applications of cost-loss models
25. Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
26. End to end ensemble forecasting: Towards evaluating the economic value of the ensemble prediction system
27. Survey of common verification methods in meteorology
28. Forecast value: Descriptive decision studies
29. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems
30. Ensemble forecasting at the NMC: The generation of perturbations
31. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
32. Verification of the NCEP global ensemble forecasts
33. On the ability of ensembles to distinguish between forecasts with small and large uncertainty
34. A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts
35. Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system
36. Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble