-
1
-
-
0141682983
-
Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration
-
Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523.
-
(2003)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.131
, pp. 1509-1523
-
-
Atger, F.1
-
2
-
-
1642284383
-
Estimation of the reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts
-
Atger, F., 2004: Estimation of the reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 627-646.
-
(2004)
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc
, vol.130
, pp. 627-646
-
-
Atger, F.1
-
3
-
-
0742269293
-
Increased automation and use of multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at the IRI
-
Barnston, A. G., S. Mason, L. Goddard, D. G. DeWitt, and S. E. Zebiak, 2003: Increased automation and use of multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at the IRI. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1783-1796.
-
(2003)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.84
, pp. 1783-1796
-
-
Barnston, A.G.1
Mason, S.2
Goddard, L.3
DeWitt, D.G.4
Zebiak, S.E.5
-
4
-
-
22144447492
-
An evolving seasonal forecasting system using Bayes' theorem
-
Boer, G. J., 2005: An evolving seasonal forecasting system using Bayes' theorem. Atmos.-Ocean, 43, 129-143.
-
(2005)
Atmos.-Ocean
, vol.43
, pp. 129-143
-
-
Boer, G.J.1
-
5
-
-
0003010182
-
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
-
Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
-
(1950)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.78
, pp. 1-3
-
-
Brier, G.W.1
-
6
-
-
0035562396
-
Seasonal predictions based on two dynamic models
-
Derome, J., and Coauthors, 2001: Seasonal predictions based on two dynamic models. Atmos.-Ocean, 39, 485-501.
-
(2001)
Atmos.-Ocean
, vol.39
, pp. 485-501
-
-
Derome, J.1
-
7
-
-
0033844059
-
Multimodel spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST
-
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Déqué, and J.-P. Piedeliérem, 2000: Multimodel spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2069-2088.
-
(2000)
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc
, vol.126
, pp. 2069-2088
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
Déqué, M.2
Piedeliérem, J.-P.3
-
8
-
-
18544362809
-
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination
-
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination. Tellus, 57A, 234-252.
-
(2005)
Tellus
, vol.57 A
, pp. 234-252
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
Hagedorn, R.2
Palmer, T.N.3
-
9
-
-
0034292455
-
Model consensus
-
Fritsch, J. M., J. Hilliker, J. Ross, and R. L. Vislocky, 2000: Model consensus. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 571-582.
-
(2000)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.15
, pp. 571-582
-
-
Fritsch, J.M.1
Hilliker, J.2
Ross, J.3
Vislocky, R.L.4
-
10
-
-
18544371178
-
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
-
Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept. Tellus, 57A, 219-233.
-
(2005)
Tellus
, vol.57 A
, pp. 219-233
-
-
Hagedorn, R.1
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
Palmer, T.N.3
-
12
-
-
0036872437
-
NCEP-DOC AMIP-II re-analysis
-
Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S. K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fkorino, and G. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOC AMIP-II re-analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643.
-
(2002)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.83
, pp. 1631-1643
-
-
Kanamitsu, M.1
Ebisuzaki, W.2
Woollen, J.3
Yang, S.K.4
Hnilo, J.J.5
Fkorino, M.6
Potter, G.7
-
13
-
-
0000161667
-
Skill as function of time scale in ensemble of seasonal hindcast
-
Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2001: Skill as function of time scale in ensemble of seasonal hindcast. Climate Dyn., 17, 127-141.
-
(2001)
Climate Dyn
, vol.17
, pp. 127-141
-
-
Kharin, V.V.1
Zwiers, F.W.2
-
14
-
-
0036539312
-
Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles
-
Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2002: Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles. J. Climate, 15, 793-799.
-
(2002)
J. Climate
, vol.15
, pp. 793-799
-
-
Kharin, V.V.1
Zwiers, F.W.2
-
15
-
-
0038684066
-
Improved seasonal probability forecast
-
Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2003: Improved seasonal probability forecast. J. Climate, 16, 1684-1701.
-
(2003)
J. Climate
, vol.16
, pp. 1684-1701
-
-
Kharin, V.V.1
Zwiers, F.W.2
-
16
-
-
0020971827
-
Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes theorem
-
Krzysztofowicz, R., 1983: Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes theorem. Water Resour. Res., 19, 327-336.
-
(1983)
Water Resour. Res
, vol.19
, pp. 327-336
-
-
Krzysztofowicz, R.1
-
17
-
-
0001138910
-
The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means
-
Leith, C. E., 1973: The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1066-1069.
-
(1973)
J. Appl. Meteor
, vol.12
, pp. 1066-1069
-
-
Leith, C.E.1
-
18
-
-
0020344505
-
A model for assessment of weather forecasts
-
Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-303.
-
(1982)
Aust. Meteor. Mag
, vol.30
, pp. 291-303
-
-
Mason, I.1
-
19
-
-
0033208324
-
Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels
-
Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham, 1999: Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 713-725.
-
(1999)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.14
, pp. 713-725
-
-
Mason, S.J.1
Graham, N.E.2
-
20
-
-
0042636795
-
The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño event
-
Mason, S. J., L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P. A. Arkin, 1999: The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1853-1873.
-
(1999)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.80
, pp. 1853-1873
-
-
Mason, S.J.1
Goddard, L.2
Graham, N.E.3
Yulaeva, E.4
Sun, L.5
Arkin, P.A.6
-
21
-
-
0000918735
-
A new vector partition of the probability score
-
Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
-
(1973)
J. Appl. Meteor
, vol.12
, pp. 595-600
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
-
22
-
-
0000800652
-
The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation
-
Murphy, A. H., 1977: The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 803-816.
-
(1977)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.105
, pp. 803-816
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
-
23
-
-
0002566236
-
Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature
-
Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1977: Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Appl. Stat., 26, 61-78.
-
(1977)
Appl. Stat
, vol.26
, pp. 61-78
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
24
-
-
0023486961
-
A general framework for forecast verification
-
Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
-
(1987)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.115
, pp. 1330-1338
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
25
-
-
0033843381
-
A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
-
Palmer, T. N., C. Brankovic, and D. S. Richardson, 2000: A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2013-2034.
-
(2000)
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc
, vol.126
, pp. 2013-2034
-
-
Palmer, T.N.1
Brankovic, C.2
Richardson, D.S.3
-
26
-
-
3543083343
-
Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual prediction (DEMETER)
-
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
-
(2004)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.85
, pp. 853-872
-
-
Palmer, T.N.1
-
27
-
-
0034300094
-
Simulation skills of the SST-forced global climate variability of the NCEP-MRF9 and Scripps-MPI ECHAM3 models
-
Peng, P., A. Kumar, A. G. Barnston, and L. Goddard, 2000: Simulation skills of the SST-forced global climate variability of the NCEP-MRF9 and Scripps-MPI ECHAM3 models. J. Climate, 13, 3657-3679.
-
(2000)
J. Climate
, vol.13
, pp. 3657-3679
-
-
Peng, P.1
Kumar, A.2
Barnston, A.G.3
Goddard, L.4
-
28
-
-
85080838118
-
An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies
-
doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002712
-
Peng, P., A. Kumar, A. H. Van den Dool, and A. G. Barnston, 2002: An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4710, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002712.
-
(2002)
J. Geophys. Res
, vol.107
, pp. 4710
-
-
Peng, P.1
Kumar, A.2
Van den Dool, A.H.3
Barnston, A.G.4
-
29
-
-
11844296090
-
Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction
-
Robertson, A. W., U. Lall, S. E. Zebiak, and L. Goddard, 2004: Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2732-2744.
-
(2004)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.132
, pp. 2732-2744
-
-
Robertson, A.W.1
Lall, U.2
Zebiak, S.E.3
Goddard, L.4
-
31
-
-
84950622021
-
EDF statistics for goodness of fit and some comparisons
-
Stephens, M. A., 1974: EDF statistics for goodness of fit and some comparisons. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 69, 730-737.
-
(1974)
J. Amer. Stat. Assoc
, vol.69
, pp. 730-737
-
-
Stephens, M.A.1
-
32
-
-
0034098639
-
Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts
-
Stephenson, D. B., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2000: Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts. Tellus, 52A, 300-322.
-
(2000)
Tellus
, vol.52 A
, pp. 300-322
-
-
Stephenson, D.B.1
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
-
33
-
-
0015731803
-
The relative operating characteristic in psychology
-
Swets, J. A., 1973: The relative operating characteristic in psychology. Science, 182, 990-1000.
-
(1973)
Science
, vol.182
, pp. 990-1000
-
-
Swets, J.A.1
-
35
-
-
0042197704
-
Economic gains from scientific advances and operational improvement sin meteorological prediction
-
Thompson, J. C., 1962: Economic gains from scientific advances and operational improvement sin meteorological prediction. J. Appl. Meteor., 1, 13-17.
-
(1962)
J. Appl. Meteor
, vol.1
, pp. 13-17
-
-
Thompson, J.C.1
-
36
-
-
0027705108
-
Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
-
Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
-
(1993)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.8
, pp. 379-398
-
-
Tracton, M.S.1
Kalnay, E.2
-
37
-
-
0001907318
-
Why do forecasts for "near normal" often fail?
-
Van den Dool, H., and Z. Toth, 1991: Why do forecasts for "near normal" often fail? Wea. Forecasting, 6, 76-85.
-
(1991)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.6
, pp. 76-85
-
-
Van den Dool, H.1
Toth, Z.2
-
38
-
-
0029510470
-
Improved model output statistics forecasts through model consensus
-
Vislocky, R. L., and J. M. Fritsch, 1995: Improved model output statistics forecasts through model consensus. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1157-1164.
-
(1995)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.76
, pp. 1157-1164
-
-
Vislocky, R.L.1
Fritsch, J.M.2
-
39
-
-
41949124639
-
Can multimodel combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?
-
Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Can multimodel combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 241-260.
-
(2008)
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc
, vol.134
, pp. 241-260
-
-
Weigel, A.P.1
Liniger, M.A.2
Appenzeller, C.3
-
41
-
-
78651268189
-
Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF)
-
WMO, WMO, 24 pp
-
WMO, 2002: Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPS. Vol. 1. WMO-No. 485, 24 pp.
-
(2002)
New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPS
, vol.1
, Issue.485
-
-
-
44
-
-
0031403103
-
Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observation, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs
-
Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observation, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558.
-
(1997)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.78
, pp. 2539-2558
-
-
Xie, P.1
Arkin, P.A.2
-
45
-
-
0030368832
-
Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2
-
Zwiers, F. W., 1996: Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Climate Dyn., 12, 825-848.
-
(1996)
Climate Dyn
, vol.12
, pp. 825-848
-
-
Zwiers, F.W.1
|