메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 36, Issue 5-6, 2011, Pages 1173-1188

Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

Author keywords

Climate Forecast System; East Asian summer monsoon index; Long lead coupled climate prediction; Multi model ensemble; Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia; Statistical postprocessing; Western North Pacific summer monsoon index; Western North Pacific East Asian monsoon

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 79952251144     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0832-0     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (81)

References (38)
  • 1
    • 0028813026 scopus 로고
    • A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies
    • Alexander MA, Deser C (1995) A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies. J Phys Oceanogr 25: 122-137.
    • (1995) J Phys Oceanogr , vol.25 , pp. 122-137
    • Alexander, M.A.1    Deser, C.2
  • 2
    • 0033172608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean
    • Alexander MA, Deser C, Timlin MS (1999) The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J Climate 12: 2419-2433.
    • (1999) J Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2419-2433
    • Alexander, M.A.1    Deser, C.2    Timlin, M.S.3
  • 4
    • 38549126116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection
    • doi:10.1029/2006JC003798
    • Ashok K, Behera S, Rao AS, Weng HY, Yamagata T (2007) El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112: C11007. doi: 10. 1029/2006JC003798.
    • (2007) J Geophys Res , vol.112
    • Ashok, K.1    Behera, S.2    Rao, A.S.3    Weng, H.Y.4    Yamagata, T.5
  • 5
    • 0032711981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal prediction
    • Feddersen H, Navarra A, Ward MN (1999) Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal prediction. J Climate 12: 1974-1989.
    • (1999) J Climate , vol.12 , pp. 1974-1989
    • Feddersen, H.1    Navarra, A.2    Ward, M.N.3
  • 6
    • 0032446369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs
    • Gadjil S, Sajani S (1998) Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs. Clim Dyn 14: 659-689.
    • (1998) Clim Dyn , vol.14 , pp. 659-689
    • Gadjil, S.1    Sajani, S.2
  • 7
    • 13644262630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On interannual characteristics of climate prediction center merged analysis precipitation over the Korean Peninsula during the summer monsoon season
    • Ha KJ, Park SK, Kim KY (2005) On interannual characteristics of climate prediction center merged analysis precipitation over the Korean Peninsula during the summer monsoon season. Int J Climatol 25: 99-116.
    • (2005) Int J Climatol , vol.25 , pp. 99-116
    • Ha, K.J.1    Park, S.K.2    Kim, K.Y.3
  • 8
    • 0442281808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An index measuring the interannual variation of the East Asian summer monsoon-the EAP index
    • Huang G (2003) An index measuring the interannual variation of the East Asian summer monsoon-the EAP index. Adv Atmos Sci 21: 41-52.
    • (2003) Adv Atmos Sci , vol.21 , pp. 41-52
    • Huang, G.1
  • 9
    • 34248660262 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of coastal SST variability on the East Asian summer monsoon
    • Huang A, Zhang Y, Gao X (2007) Impacts of coastal SST variability on the East Asian summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 24: 259-270.
    • (2007) Adv Atmos Sci , vol.24 , pp. 259-270
    • Huang, A.1    Zhang, Y.2    Gao, X.3
  • 10
    • 0029768948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project
    • Kalnay E, Coauthors (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77: 437-471.
    • (1996) Bull Am Meteor Soc , vol.77 , pp. 437-471
    • Coauthors, K.E.1
  • 11
    • 0036690690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs
    • Kang IS et al (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19: 383-395.
    • (2002) Clim Dyn , vol.19 , pp. 383-395
    • Kang, I.S.1
  • 13
    • 1842481194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction
    • Kang IS, Lee JY, Park CK (2004) Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J Clim 17: 834-844.
    • (2004) J Clim , vol.17 , pp. 834-844
    • Kang, I.S.1    Lee, J.Y.2    Park, C.K.3
  • 14
    • 0038607917 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction
    • Koster RD, Suarez MJ (2003) Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction. J Hydrometeor 4: 408-423.
    • (2003) J Hydrometeor , vol.4 , pp. 408-423
    • Koster, R.D.1    Suarez, M.J.2
  • 15
    • 0029500117 scopus 로고
    • Prospects and limitations of atmospheric GCM climate predictions
    • Kumar A, Hoerling MP (1995) Prospects and limitations of atmospheric GCM climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 76: 335-345.
    • (1995) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.76 , pp. 335-345
    • Kumar, A.1    Hoerling, M.P.2
  • 16
    • 34548129205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methodology for estimating the unpredictable component of seasonal atmospheric variability
    • Kumar A, Jha B, Zhang Q, Bounoua L (2007) Methodology for estimating the unpredictable component of seasonal atmospheric variability. J Climate 20: 3888-3901.
    • (2007) J Climate , vol.20 , pp. 3888-3901
    • Kumar, A.1    Jha, B.2    Zhang, Q.3    Bounoua, L.4
  • 17
    • 0034233180 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon
    • Lau KM, Kim KM, Yang S (2000) Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 13: 2461-2482.
    • (2000) J Clim , vol.13 , pp. 2461-2482
    • Lau, K.M.1    Kim, K.M.2    Yang, S.3
  • 18
    • 77954952964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?
    • doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0857-4
    • Lee JY, Wang B, Kang IS, Shukla J et al (2010) How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle? Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0857-4.
    • (2010) Clim Dyn
    • Lee, J.Y.1    Wang, B.2    Kang, I.S.3    Shukla, J.4
  • 19
    • 67349143083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS
    • Liang J, Yang S, Hu ZZ, Huang B, Kumar A, Zhang Z (2009) Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS. Clim Dyn 32: 989-1001.
    • (2009) Clim Dyn , vol.32 , pp. 989-1001
    • Liang, J.1    Yang, S.2    Hu, Z.Z.3    Huang, B.4    Kumar, A.5    Zhang, Z.6
  • 21
    • 0003686569 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NOAA/GFDL.,Available online at
    • Pacanowski RC, Griffies SM (1998) MOM 3. 0 manual. NOAA/GFDL. Available online at http://www. gfdl. noaa. gov/~smg/MOM/web/guide_parent/guide_parent. html.
    • (1998) MOM 3. 0 manual
    • Pacanowski, R.C.1    Griffies, S.M.2
  • 22
    • 0742305193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global analyses of SST, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
    • doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
    • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP (2003) Global analyses of SST, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108: 4407. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002670.
    • (2003) J Geophys Res , vol.108 , pp. 4407
    • Rayner, N.A.1    Parker, D.E.2    Horton, E.B.3    Folland, C.K.4    Alexander, L.V.5    Rowell, D.P.6
  • 23
    • 0032004271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations
    • Rowell DP (1998) Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. J Clim 11: 109-120.
    • (1998) J Clim , vol.11 , pp. 109-120
    • Rowell, D.P.1
  • 24
    • 33645633207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP climate forecast system
    • Saha S et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19: 3483-3517.
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 3483-3517
    • Saha, S.1
  • 25
    • 0030405689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
    • Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J Climate 9: 2727-2750.
    • (1996) J Climate , vol.9 , pp. 2727-2750
    • Sperber, K.R.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 26
    • 0033811633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon
    • Sperber KR, Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126: 2545-2574.
    • (2000) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.126 , pp. 2545-2574
    • Sperber, K.R.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Annamalai, H.3
  • 27
    • 0000904006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices
    • Wang B, Fan Z (1999) Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull Am Meteor Soc 80: 629-638.
    • (1999) Bull Am Meteor Soc , vol.80 , pp. 629-638
    • Wang, B.1    Fan, Z.2
  • 28
    • 0034044074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?
    • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13: 1517-1536.
    • (2000) J Clim , vol.13 , pp. 1517-1536
    • Wang, B.1    Wu, R.2    Fu, X.3
  • 29
    • 0035888511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons
    • Wang B, Wu R, Lau KM (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons. J Clim 15: 4073-4090.
    • (2001) J Clim , vol.15 , pp. 4073-4090
    • Wang, B.1    Wu, R.2    Lau, K.M.3
  • 30
    • 1842481261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs
    • Wang B, Kang IS, Lee JY (2004) Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J Clim 17: 803-818.
    • (2004) J Clim , vol.17 , pp. 803-818
    • Wang, B.1    Kang, I.S.2    Lee, J.Y.3
  • 32
    • 41449088188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How accurately do coupled climate models predict the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?
    • Wang B, Lee JY, Kang IS, Shukla J et al (2008a) How accurately do coupled climate models predict the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability? Clim Dyn 30: 605-619.
    • (2008) Clim Dyn , vol.30 , pp. 605-619
    • Wang, B.1    Lee, J.Y.2    Kang, I.S.3    Shukla, J.4
  • 34
    • 67349238245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)
    • Wang B, Lee JY, Kang IS, Shukla J et al (2009) Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Clim Dyn 33: 93-117.
    • (2009) Clim Dyn , vol.33 , pp. 93-117
    • Wang, B.1    Lee, J.Y.2    Kang, I.S.3    Shukla, J.4
  • 35
    • 0027065333 scopus 로고
    • Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems
    • Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q J R Meteorol Soc 118: 877-926.
    • (1992) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.118 , pp. 877-926
    • Webster, P.J.1    Yang, S.2
  • 36
    • 34250023448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of recent El Nino Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer
    • Weng H, Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Yamagata T (2007) Impacts of recent El Nino Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. Clim Dyn 29: 113-129.
    • (2007) Clim Dyn , vol.29 , pp. 113-129
    • Weng, H.1    Ashok, K.2    Behera, S.K.3    Rao, S.A.4    Yamagata, T.5
  • 37
    • 0031403103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs
    • Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78: 2539-2558.
    • (1997) Bull Am Meteor Soc , vol.78 , pp. 2539-2558
    • Xie, P.1    Arkin, P.2
  • 38
    • 53649102244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
    • Yang S, Zhang Z, Kousky VE, Higgins RW, Yoo SH, Liang J, Fan Y (2008) Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Climate 21: 3755-3775.
    • (2008) J Climate , vol.21 , pp. 3755-3775
    • Yang, S.1    Zhang, Z.2    Kousky, V.E.3    Higgins, R.W.4    Yoo, S.H.5    Liang, J.6    Fan, Y.7


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.