Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques - A review

Atmospheric Research

Volumn 104-105, Issue , 2012, Pages 40-69

  Roy, Chandan ^a   Kovordányi, Rita ^a  

^a LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Artificial neural networks; Cyclone forecasting models; Cyclone forecasting techniques; Cyclone track forecasting; Hurricane; Typhoon

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; CYCLONE FORECASTING; CYCLONE TRACKS; ECONOMIC LOSS; FORECAST ACCURACY; FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; HUMAN LIVES; LIMITED CAPACITY; OCEAN BASINS; RELIABLE PERFORMANCE; SATELLITE IMAGES; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TYPHOON; WEATHER CONDITIONS; WIND PRESSURES;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; HURRICANES; LOSSES; OCEAN CURRENTS; STORMS; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND EFFECTS;

NEURAL NETWORKS;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CORIOLIS FORCE; HURRICANE; OCEANIC CURRENT; SATELLITE IMAGERY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84655168035     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.09.012     Document Type: Review

References (203)

1. Aldinger W.T., Stapler W. 1998 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report 1998, JTWC, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
2. Ali M.M., Kishtawal C.M., Jain S. Predicting cyclone tracks in the North Indian Ocean: an artificial neural network approach. Geophys. Res. Lett 2007, 34(4).
3. Annette P. Cyclogue: analogic prediction of the course of tropical cyclones by national meteorological analysis center. Tech. Rep. No. 28 1978, Australia Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne.
4. Anthes R.A. Tropical Cyclones: Their Evolution, Structure and Effects 1982, American Meteor. Soc., Boston, Mass.
5. Arakawa H. Studies of statistical prediction of typhoons. National Hurricane Research Project Report No. 61 1963, Weather Bureau, USDC.
6. Arnault J., Roux F. Characteristics of African easterly waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Cape Verde Islands region in July-August-September of 2004-2008. Atmos. Res. 2011, 100(1):61-82.
7. Bayler G., Lewit H. The navy operational global and regional atmospheric prediction systems at the fleet numerical oceanography center. Wea. Forecast. 1992, 7(2):273-279.
8. Beer T., Giannini L. Tropical cyclone cloudbands. J. Atmos. Sci. 1980, 37:1511-1520.
9. Bell G.J. Predicting the movement of tropical cyclones in the region of the China Sea. International Seminar on Tropical Cyclones, 18-31 January 1962, Tokyo, Japan 1962, 195-198.
10. Bender M.A., Ross R.J., Tuleya R.E., Kurihara Y. Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1993, 121(7):2046-2061.
11. Bender M.A., Ginis I., Tuleya R., Thomas B., Marchok T. The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2007, 135(12):3965-3989.
12. Black T.L. The new NMC mesoscale eta model: description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecast. 1994, 9(2):265-278.
13. Bonner W.D. Recent progress and future plans for numerical weather prediction at NMC. Eighth Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Baltimore, Maryland, February 22-26 1988.
14. Bonner W.D. NMC overview: recent progress and future plans. Wea. Forecast. 1989, 4(3):275-285.
15. Bonner W.D., White G.H., Tracton M.S., Kousky V.E., Cressman G.P. Global analysis and prediction at NMC Washington. Second International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Wellington, New Zealand, December 1-5 1986.
16. Brand S., Buenafe C.A., Hamilton H.D. Comparison of tropical cyclone motion and environmental steering. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1981, 109:908.
17. Briegel L.M., Frank W.M. Large-scale influences on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1997, 125:1397-1413.
18. Bril G. Forecasting hurricane tracks using the Kalman filter. Environmetrics 1995, 6(1):7-16.
19. Carr L.E., Elsberry R.L. Systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting part 1. Approach overview and description of meteorological basis. Tech. Rep. No. NPS-MR-94-002 1994, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, (93943-5114, 273 pp.).
20. Carr L.E., Elsberry R.L., Peak J.E. Beta test of the systematic approach expert system prototype as a tropical cyclone track forecasting aid. Wea. Forecast. 2001, 16(3):355-368.
21. Chan J.C.L. The physics of tropical cyclone motion. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. 2005, 37(1):99-128.
22. Chan J.C.L., Gray W.M. Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1982, 110(10):1354-1374.
23. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation 2010, 55-91. World Scientific. J.C.L. Chan, J.D. Kepert (Eds.).
24. Chan J.C.L., Li K.K. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part III: combining perturbations of the environment and the vortex. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2005, 90(1):109-126.
25. Chan J.C.L., Williams R.T. Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. I: zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 1987, 44(9):1257-1265.
26. Chen Y., Snyder C. Assimilating vortex position with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2007, 135(5):1828-1845.
27. Chen J.M., Elsberry R.L., Boothe M.A., Carr L.E. A simple statistical-synoptic track prediction technique for western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1999, 127(1):89-102.
28. Cheung K.K.W., Chan J.C.L. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part II: perturbations of the vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1999, 127(11):2617-2640.
29. Cheung K.K.W., Chan J.C.L. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part I: perturbations of the environment. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1999, 127(6):1229-1243.
30. Chin P.C. A climatological study of tropical cyclones over the China seas. Proceedings of the Ninth Pacific Science Congress. Bangkok, Thailand 1957, 92-98.
31. Chin P.C. Survey of objective methods used in Hong Kong for predicting typhoon movement 1965, 1-14. Inter-regional Seminar on Advanced Tropical Meteorology, Manila, Philippines.
32. Chu J.H.E. Multi-basin tropical cyclone forecasting procedures (Accessed, June 25, 2010, from). http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/port_studies/Forecaster_Handbooks.BAK.23DEC09/_notes/TC_Forecasters_Guide/chap1/se103.htm.
33. Chu J.H.E. Numerical track forecast guidance (Accessed, June 28, 2010, from). http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap5/se000.htm.
34. Côté J., Desmarais J.G., Gravel S., Méthot A., Patoine A., Roch M., Staniforth A. The operational CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part II: results. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(6):1397-1418.
35. Côté J., Gravel S., Méthot A., Patoine A., Roch M., Staniforth A. The operational CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(6):1373-1395.
36. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) Disaster profiles (Accessed, May 20, 2010, from). http://www.emdat.be/result-disaster-profiles?disgroup=natural&period=1900%242010&dis_type=Storm&Submit=Display+Disaster+Profile.
37. Debsarma S.K. Cyclone and Its Warning System in Bangladesh 2001, National Disaster Reduction Day, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
38. Debsarma S.K. Simulations of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Mar. Geod. 2009, 32(2):178-198.
39. DeMaria M. Tropical cyclone motion in a nondivergent barotropic model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1985, 113(7):1199-1210.
40. Demaria M., Aberson S.D., Ooyama K.V., Lord S.J. A nested spectral model for hurricane track forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1992, 120(8):1628-1643.
41. DeMaria M., Knaff J.A., Connell B.H. A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecast. 2001, 16(2):219-233.
42. Dillon C.P., Andrews M.J. 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report 1997, JTWC, Pearl Hearbour, Hawaii.
43. Dong K., Neumann C.J. The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1986, 114(1):115-122.
44. Dvorak V.F. A technique for analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclone intensities from satellite image. NOAA Tech. Rep. No. NESS 1972, 36. (15 pp.).
45. Dvorak V.F. Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1975, 103(5):420-430.
46. Dvorak V.F. Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Tech. Rep. No. NESDIS 1984, 11. (47 pp.).
47. Elsberry R.L. Recent advancements in dynamical tropical cyclone track predictions. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1995, 56(1-2):81-99.
48. Elsberry R.L., Boothe M.A., Ulses G.A., Harr P.A. Statistical postprocessing of NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1999, 127(8):1912-1919.
49. Elsner J.B., Kara A.B. Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society 1999, Oxford University Press.
50. Elsner J.B., Niu X., Jagger T.H. Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. J. Climate 2004, 17(13):2652-2666.
51. Emanuel K.A. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part 1: steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci. 1986, 43(6):585-604.
52. Emanuel K.A. The theory of hurricanes. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. 1991, 23(1):179-196.
53. Emanuel K. Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J. Climate 2007, 20(22):5497-5509.
54. Englebretson R.E. Final report for the joint typhoon warning center JTWC92 model. Tech. Rep. No. A646852 1992, Science Applications International Corporation, Monterey, CA, (98 pp.).
55. Environmental Modeling Center The GFS Atmospheric Model 2003, 14. EMC, Camp Springs, Maryland.
56. Feng B., Liu J.N.K. SEMO-MAMO, a 3-phase module to compare tropical cyclone satellite images using a modified Hausdorff distance. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Shanghai, China 2004, 3808-3813.
57. Fett R.W., Brand S. Tropical cyclone movement forecasts based on observations from satellites. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1975, 14(4):452-465.
58. Fiorino M., Elsberry R.L. Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci. 1989, 46(7):975-990.
59. Fiorino M., Harrison E.J., Marks D.G. A comparison of the performance of two operational dynamic tropical cyclone models. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1982, 110:651.
60. Fiorino M., Goerss J.S., Jensen J.J., Harrison E.J. An Evaluation of the Real-time Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the Western North Pacific (No. JA 431:006:92) 1993, 22. NRL, Monterey, CA.
61. Fitzpatrick P.J. Hurricanes: a Reference Handbook 2006, ABC-CLIO.
62. Fraedrich K., Rückert B. Metric adaption for analog forecasting. Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl. 1998, 253(1-4):379-393.
63. Fraedrich K., Raible C.C., Sielmann F. Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region. Wea. Forecast. 2003, 11(1):3-11.
64. Fulton S.R. A comparison of multilevel adaptive methods for hurricane track prediction. Electron. Trans. Numer. Anal. 1997, 6:120-132.
65. Fulton S.R. An adaptive multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2001, 129(1):138-151.
66. Gates W.L., Pocinki L.S., Jenkins C.F. Results of numerical forecasting with the barotropic and thermotropic atmospheric models. Geophysical Research Paper No. AD0101943 1955, Airforce Cambridge Research Labs, Bedford MA.
67. Gentry R.C. Forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones, a survey. Symposium on Tropical Meteorology, Rotorua, New Zealand 1963.
68. George J.E., Gray W.M. Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1976, 15(12):1252-1264.
69. Goerss J. Impact of satellite observations on the tropical cyclone track forecasts of the navy operational global atmospheric prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2008, 137(1):41-50.
70. Goerss J.S., Hogan T.F. Impact of Satellite Observations and Forecast Model Improvements on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts 2006, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA.
71. Goerss J.S., Velden C.S., Hawkins J.D. The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995. Part II: NOGAPS forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(5):1219-1227.
72. Gray W.M. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1968, 96(10):669-700.
73. Gray W.M. Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 1979, 155-218.
74. Gray W.M. Environmental influences on tropical cyclones. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 1988, 36(3):127-139.
75. Gray W.M. The formation of tropical cyclones. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1998, 67(1-4):37-69.
76. Gross J.M. 2001 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification 2004, 24. National Weather Service, Maryland.
77. Guard C.P. 1992 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report 1992, JWTC, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
78. Haltiner G.J., Williams R.T. Numerical Prediction and Dynamic Meteorology 1980, Wiley, New York. second ed.
79. Hodur R.M. Description and evaluation of NORAPS: the navy operational regional atmospheric prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1982, 110(11):1591-1602.
80. Hodur R.M., Buurk S.D. The fleet numerical weather central tropical cyclone model: comparison of cyclic and one-way interactive boundary conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1978, 106(12):1665-1671.
81. Holland G.J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1980, 108(8):1212-1218.
82. Holland G.J. Tropical cyclone motion: environmental interaction plus a beta effect. J. Atmos. Sci. 1983, 40(2):328-342.
83. Holland G.J. Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting 2009, Bureau of meteorology research center, Melbourne, Australia, (Accessed, April 18, 2011, from). http://cawcr.gov.au/publications/BMRC_archive/tcguide/globa_guide_intro.htm.
84. Hope J.R., Neumann C.J. An operational technique for relating the movement of existing tropical cyclones to past tracks. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1970, 98(12):925-933.
85. Hope J.R., Neumann C.J. A survey of worldwide tropical cyclone prediction models. Volume of Conference Papers, 11th Technical Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Metreorology, December 13-16, Published by Amer. Meteorl. Soc., Boston 1977, 375-380.
86. Horsfall F., DeMaria M., Gross J.M. Optimal use of large-scale boundary and initial fields for limited-area hurricane forecast models. 22nd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Collins, CO, Amer. Meteorl. Soc 1997, 571-572.
87. Hovermale J.B., Livezey R.E. Three-year Performance Characteristics of the NMC Hurricane Model. Miami, FL 1977, 122-125.
88. Hubert W.E. Hurricane trajectory forecasts from a non-divergent, non-geostrophic, barotropic model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1957, 85(3):83-87.
89. Isaksen L., Stoffelen A. ERS scatterometer wind data impact on ECMWF's tropical cyclone forecasts. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 2000, 38(4 II):1885-1892.
90. Jarrell J.D., Somervell W.L. A computer technique for using typhoon analogs as a forecast aid. Tech. Rep. No. A068800 1970, Navy Weather Research Facility, Norfolk, VA.
91. Jeffries R.A., Miller R.J. Tropical cyclone forecasters reference guide 3. Tropical cyclone formation. Tech. Rep. No. NRL/PU/7515--93-0007 1993, NRL, Monterey, CA, (93943-5006).
92. Jeffries R.A., Sampson C.R., Carr L.E., Chu J.H. Tropical cyclone forecasters reference guide. 5. Numerical track forecast guidance. Tech. Rep. No. NRL/PU/7515--93-0011 1993, NRL, Monterey, CA, (20363-5100).
93. Johnson G.P., Lin F.C. Hurricane tracking via backpropagation neural network. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, Perth, WA, Australia 1995, 1103-1106.
94. Kalman R.E. A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Trans. ASME J. Basic Eng. 1960, 82(1):35-45.
95. Kanamitsu M. Description of the NMC global data assimilation and forecast system. Wea. Forecast. 1989, 4(3):335-342.
96. Kasahara A., Platzman G.W. Interaction of a hurricane with the steering flow and its effect upon the hurricane trajectory. Tellus 1963, 15(4):321-335.
97. Keenan T.D. A diagnostic study of tropical cyclone forecasting in Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 1982, 30(1):69-80.
98. Keenan T.D. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone movement in the Australian region. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 1985, 111(468):603-615.
99. Kerlin J. Performance Test of the Movable-area Fine-mesh Model in the Western Pacific 1979.
100. Kidder S.Q., Goldberg M.D., Zehr R.M., DeMaria M., Purdom J.F.W., Velden C.S. Satellite analysis of tropical cyclones using the advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2000, 81(6):1241-1259.
101. Kokhanovsky A.A., Hoyningen-Huene W.V. Optical properties of a hurricane. Atmos. Res. 2004, 69(3-4):165-183.
102. Kovordányi R., Roy C. Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens. 2009, 64(6):513-521.
103. Kurihara Y., Tuleya R.E., Bender M.A. The GFDL hurricane prediction system and its performance in the 1995 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(5):1306-1322.
104. Lajoie F.A. On the direction of movement of tropical cyclones. Aust. Meteor. Mag. 1976, 24:95-104.
105. Lajoie F.A., Nicholls N. A relationship between the direction and movement of tropical cyclones and the structure of their cloud systems. Bureau of Meteorology Tech. Rep. No. 11. Melbourne, Australia 1974, (22 pp.).
106. Landsea C., Delgado S. Number of storms by basin (Accessed, September 5, 2011, from). http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E10.html.
107. Langland R.H., Velden C., Pauley P.M., Berger H. Impact of satellite-derived rapid-scan wind observations on numerical model forecasts of Hurricane Katrina. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2009, 137(5):1615-1622.
108. Le M.J.F., Smith W.L., Callan G.M. Hurricane Debby - an illustration of the complementary nature of VAS soundings and cloud and water vapor motion winds. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1985, 66(3):258-263.
109. Le M.J.F., Leslie L.M., Bennett A.F. Tropical cyclone Beti-an example of the benefits of assimilating hourly satellite wind data. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 1996, 45(4):275-279.
110. Le M.J.F., Leslie L.M., Spinoso C. The impact of spatial and temporal distribution of satellite observations on tropical cyclone data assimilation: preliminary results. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1996, 60(1-3):157-163.
111. Le M.J., Leslie L.M., Pescod N., Spinoso C., Morison R. The importance of direct readout satellite data in sub-synoptic scale data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Adv. Space Res. 1997, 19(3):413-422.
112. Lean H.W., Clark P.A., Dixon M., Roberts N.M., Fitch A., Forbes R., Halliwell C. Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2008, 136(9):3408-3424.
113. Lee R.S.T., Liu J.N.K. An automatic satellite interpretation of tropical cyclone patterns using elastic graph dynamic link model. Int. J. Pattern Recognit. Artif. Intell. 1999, 13(8):1251-1270.
114. Lee R.S.T., Liu J.N.K. Tropical cyclone identification and tracking system using integrated neural oscillatory elastic graph matching and hybrid RBF network track mining techniques. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 2000, 11(3):680-689.
115. Lee R.S.T., Liu J.N.K. An automatic tropical cyclone pattern recognition and classification system using composite neural oscillatory-based EGDLM. J. Fuzzy Syst. 2002, 4(1):616-625.
116. Lee R., Liu J. iJADE WeatherMAN: a weather forecasting system using intelligent multiagent-based fuzzy neuro network. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. C Appl. Rev. 2004, 34(3):369-377.
117. Leslie L.M., Holland G.J. On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: a comparison of vortex profiles. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1995, 56(1):101-110.
118. Leslie L.M., Hess G.D., Holland G.J., Morison R.P., Fraedrich K. Predicting changes in intensity of tropical cyclones using a Markov chain technique. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 1992, 40(1):41-46.
119. Leslie L.M., LeMarshall J.F., Morison R.P., Spinoso C., Purser R.J., Pescod N., Seecamp R. Improved hurricane track forecasting from the continuous assimilation of high quality satellite wind data. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(5):1248-1258.
120. Li, S.W., Ng, P.W., 2007. The tropical cyclone information processing system (TIPS) of the Hong Kong observatory. Unpublished manuscript.
121. Lorenc A.C., Ballard S.P., Bell R.S., Ingleby N.B., Andrews P.L.F., Barker D.M., Bray J.R., Clayton A.M., Dalby T., Li D., Payne T.J., Saunders F.W. The Met. Office global three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 2000, 126(570):2991-3012.
122. Lourensz R.S. Tropical Cyclone in the Australian Region July 1909 to June 1980 1981, Bureau of Meteorology, P. O. Box 1289K, Melbourne, Australia, (94 pp.).
123. Lu K.-C. Typhoon forecast and warning system in Taiwan. Proceedings 2nd International Conference on Urban Disaster Reduction. Taipei, Taiwan 2007.
124. Ma L.-M., Tan Z.-M. Improving the behavior of the cumulus parameterization for tropical cyclone prediction: convection trigger. Atmos. Res. 2009, 92(2):190-211.
125. Majumdar S.J., Aberson S.D., Bishop C.H., Buizza R., Peng M.S., Reynolds C.A. A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2006, 134(9):2354-2372.
126. Marks D.G. The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo 1992, NWS NMC 70, Camp Springs, Maryland, (89 pp.).
127. Marshall J.L. Cloud and water vapour motion vectors in tropical cyclone track forecasting - a review. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1998, 65(3):141-151.
128. Mathur M.B. Development of the NMC's high resolution hurricane model. American Meteorological Society, 17th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, Florida 1988, 60-63.
129. Mathur M.B. The national meteorological center's quasi-Lagrangian model for hurricane prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1991, 119(6):1419-1447.
130. Matsumoto, C.R., 1984. A statistical method for one- to three-day tropical cyclone track prediction (doctoral thesis). Access no., ADA151605, Air Force Inst. of Tech., Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH.
131. McBride J.L., Holland G.J. Tropical-cyclone forecasting: a worldwide summary of techniques and verification statistics. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1987, 68(10):1230-1238.
132. Mecikalski J.R., Watts P.D., Koenig M. Use of Meteosat Second Generation optimal cloud analysis fields for understanding physical attributes of growing cumulus clouds. Atmos. Res. 2011, 102(1-2):175-190.
133. Mesinger F., Janjic Z.I. Noise Due to Time-dependent Boundary Conditions in Limited Area Models. Rep. No. 4 1974, WMO, Geneva.
134. Miglietta M.M., Moscatello A., Conte D., Mannarini G., Lacorata G., Rotunno R. Numerical analysis of a Mediterranean 'hurricane' over south-eastern Italy: sensitivity experiments to sea surface temperature. Atmos. Res. 2011, 101(1-2):412-426.
135. Miller R.G. Statistics and predictability of weather in "Studies in Statistical Weather Prediction". Final Rep., Contract AF 19(604)-1590 1958, Travelers Weather Research Center.
136. Miller B.I., Chase P.P. Prediction of Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods 1966, 94(6):399-406. National Hurricane Research Laboratory, Environmental Science Service Administration, Miami, FL.
137. Miller B.I., Moore P.L. A comparison of hurricane steering levels. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1960, 41:59-63.
138. Miller B.I., Hill E.C., Chase P.P. A revised technique for forecasting hurricane movement by statistical methods. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1968, 96(8):540-548.
139. Miller R., Schrader A., Sampson C., Tsui T. The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF). Wea. Forecast. 1990, 5:653-660.
140. Mino H., Nagata M. Outline of the New Typhoon Prediction Models at JMA (Technical Review) 2001, 13. Japan Meteorological Agency.
141. NCEP The North American mesoscale forecast system (Accessed, September 5, 2010, from). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/?branch=NAM.
142. Neumann C.J. An alternative to the HURRAN (hurricane analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-62 1972, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida, (24 pp.).
143. Neumann C.J. A guide to Atlantic and eastern Pacific models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS No. 932 1979, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida, (26 pp.).
144. Neumann C.J. On the use of deep-layer-mean geopotential height fields in statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion. 6th Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences 1979, 32-38. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Boston.
145. Neumann C.J. The role of statistical models in the prediction of tropical cyclone motion. Am. Stat. 1985, 39(4):347-357.
146. Neumann C.J. The national hurricane center NHC83 model. Tech. Rep. No. NWS NHC 41 1988, National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, FL, (47 pp.).
147. Neumann C.J., Lawrence M.B. An operational experiment in the statistical-dynamical prediction of tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1975, 103(8):665-673.
148. Neumann C.J., Mandal G.S. Statistical prediction of tropical storm motion over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Indian J. Meteorol. Hydrol. Geophys. 1978, 29:487-500.
149. Neumann C.J., McAdie C.J. A revised national hurricane center NHC83 model (NHC90). Tech. Rep. No. NWS NHC 44 1991, National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, FL, (37 pp.).
150. Neumann C.J., Pelissier J.M. Models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the North Atlantic: an operational evaluation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1981, 109(3):522-538.
151. NWS (National Weather Service) Tropical Cyclone Formation Regions (Accessed, September 5, 2011, from). http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc_basins.htm.
152. Palmen E. On the formation and structure of tropical hurricanes. Geophysica 1948, 3:26-38.
153. Pedro S.J., Burstein F., Sharp A. A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 2005, 160(2):308-324.
154. Pickle J. Forecasting short-term movement and intensification of tropical cyclones using pattern-recognition techniques. Environmental Research Paper No. ADA256705 1991, Phillips Lab Hanscom AFB, MA.
155. Prasad K., Rama Rao Y.V. Cyclone track prediction by a quasi-Lagrangian limited area model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2003, 83(3-4):173-185.
156. Radford A.M. Forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones at the Met Office. Meteorol. Appl. 1994, 1:355-363.
157. Renard R.J., Colgan S.G., Daley M.J., Rinard S.K. Forecasting the motion of north Atlantic tropical cyclones by the objective MOHATT scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1973, 101(3):206-214.
158. Riehl H., Shafer R.J. The recurvature of tropical storms. J. Atmos. Sci. 1944, 1(1):42-54.
159. Roeckner E., Arpe K., Bengtsson L., Christoph M., Dumenil L., Esch M., Giorgetta M., Schulzweida U., Claussen M., Schlese U. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4. Model Description and Simulation of Present-day Climate (No. MPI-Report 218) 1996, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
160. Rote G. Computing the minimum Hausdorff distance between two point sets on a line under translation. Inf. Process Lett. 1991, 38(3):123-127.
161. Rotunno R., Emanuel K.A. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci. 1987, 44(3):542-561.
162. Sall S.M., Sauvageot H., Gaye A.T., Viltard A., de Felice P. A cyclogenesis index for tropical Atlantic off the African coasts. Atmos. Res. 2006, 79(2):123-147.
163. Sampson C.R., Schrader A.J. The automated tropical cyclone forecasting system (version 3.2). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2000, 81(6):1231-1240.
164. Sandeep S., Chandrasekar A., Singh D. The impact of assimilation of AMSU data for the prediction of a tropical cyclone over India using a mesoscale model. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2006, 27(20):4621-4653.
165. Sanders F., Burpee R.W. Experiments in barotropic hurricane track forecasting. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1968, 7(3):313-323.
166. Sanders F., Pike A.C., Gaertner J.P. A barotropic model for operational prediction of tracks of tropical storms. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1975, 14(3):265-280.
167. Sauer T., Yorke J.A., Casdagli M. Embedology. J. Stat. Phys. 1991, 65(3):579-616.
168. Sela J.G. Spectral modeling at the National Meteorological Center. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1980, 108:1279-1292.
169. Sharkov E.A. Global Tropical Cyclogenesis 2000, Springer.
170. Sheets R.C. The National Hurricane Center-past, present, and future. Wea. Forecast. 1990, 5:185-232.
171. Shuman F.G., Hovermale J.B. An operational six-layer primitive equation model. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1968, 7(4):525-547.
172. Sievers O., Fraedrich K., Raible C.C. Self-adapting analog ensemble predictions of tropical cyclone tracks. Wea. Forecast. 2000, 15(5):623-629.
173. Simpson R.H. The decision process in hurricane forecasting (technical no. NWS SR-63). NOAA Technical Memorandum 1971, 35.
174. Simpson R.H. Hurricane!: Coping with Disaster: Progress and Challenges since Galveston, 1900 2003, American Geophysical Union.
175. Smith R.K., Ulrich W. A numerical study of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. I: the role of vortex asymmetries. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 1990, 116(492):337-362.
176. Takeuchi K. Application of the Kalman filter to cyclone forecasting: 1. methodology, 2. typhoon forecasting. Rep. No. RM-76-9 1976, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
177. Takeuchi K. Application of the Kalman filter to cyclone forecasting: 3. hurricane forecasting, 4. additional typhoon forecasting. Rep. No. RM-76-62 1976, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
178. Tomassini M., Lemeur D., Saunders R.W. Near-surface satellite wind observations of hurricanes and their impact on ECMWF model analyses and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(5):1274-1286.
179. Tse S.Y.W. A new method for the prediction of typhoon movement using the 700mb chart. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 1966, 92(392):239-253.
180. Tse S.Y.W. Typhoon movement. The regional training seminar, Singapore. Synoptic Analysis and Forecasting in the Tropics of Asia and the Southwest Pacific 1970, 158-171.
181. Ulrich W., Smith R.K. A numerical study of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. II: motion in spatially-varying large-scale flows. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. 1991, 117(497):107-124.
182. Vanderman L.W. An improved NWP model for forecasting the paths of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1962, 90(1):19-22.
183. Veigas K.W. The development of a statistical-physical hurricane prediction model. Final Report, U.S.W.B. Contract Cwb 10966 1966, Travellers Weather Research Center, Hartford, CT, (19 pp.).
184. Veigas K.W., Miller R.G., Howe G.M. Probabilistic prediction of hurricane movements by synoptic climatology. Occasional Papers in Meteorology 1959, 2:54. The Travelers Weather Research Center, Inc., Hartford, Conn.
185. Velden C.S., Hayden C.M., Paul M.W., Franklin J.L., Lynch J.S. The impact of satellite-derived winds on numerical hurricane track forecasting. Wea. Forecast. 1992, 7(1):107-118.
186. Velden C.S., Olander T.L., Wanzong S. The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995. Part I: dataset methodology, description, and case analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1998, 126(5):1202-1218.
187. Vigh J., Fulton S.R., DeMaria M., Schubert W.H. Evaluation of a multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2003, 131(8):1629-1636.
188. Villmann T., Merényi E., Hammer B. Neural maps in remote sensing image analysis. Neural Netw. 2003, 16(3-4):389-403.
189. Wang Y. On the bogusing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: the influence of vertical structure. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1998, 65(3-4):153-170.
190. Wang Y., Holland G.J. The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part I: adiabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci. 1996, 53(3):411-427.
191. Wang Y., Holland G.J. The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part II: diabatic vortices. J Atmos. Sci. 1996, 53(24):3737-3756.
192. Wang Y., Holland G.J. Tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear. J. Atmos. Sci. 1996, 53(22):3313-3332.
193. Wang D., Liang X., Duan Y., Chan J.C.L. Impact of four-dimensional variational data assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors on tropical cyclone track forecasts. Wea. Forecast. 2006, 21(4):663-669.
194. Wei K., Jing Z.-L. Spiral band model optimization by chaos immune evolutionary algorithm for locating tropical cyclones. Atmos. Res. 2010, 97(1-2):266-277.
195. Weir R.C. Predicting the acceleration of northward-moving tropical cyclones using upper-tropospheric winds. Tech. Rep. No. ADA127446 1982, Naval Ocenography Command Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, San Francisco.
196. Wiederanders C.J. Typhoon forecasting techniques. Presented at the U.S. Asian Weather Symp 1961, John Hay Air Base, Philippine Is.
197. WMO Annual Joint WMO Technical Progress Report on the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Including Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Research Activities: India (Technical) 2010, 29.
198. Xiao Q., Zou X., Pondeca M., Shapiro M.A., Velden C. Impact of GMS-5 and GOES-9 satellite-derived winds on the prediction of a NORPEX extratropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2002, 130(3):507-528.
199. Xu J., Gray W.M. Environmental circulations associated with tropical cyclones experiencing fast, slow, and looping motion. Atmos. Sci. paper No. 346 1982, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, (110 pp.).
200. Xu Y., Neumann C.J. A statistical model for the prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 1985, 28. (30 pp.).
201. Yang Y., Wang J. An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm. Sci. China D Earth Sci. 2005, 48(3):429-440.
202. Yeh K.S., Côté J., Gravel S., Méthot A., Patoine A., Roch M., Staniforth A. The CMC-MRB global environmental multiscale (GEM) model. Part III: nonhydrostatic formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2002, 130(2):339-356.
203. Zehr R.M. Tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. NOAA Technical Memorandum 1992, 181. U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.