Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part III: Combining perturbations of the environment and the vortex

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

Volumn 90, Issue 1-2, 2005, Pages 109-126

  Chan, Johnny C L ^a   Li, K K ^a  

^a CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAROTROPIC MOTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

EID: 25844479707     PISSN: 01777971     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-004-0092-9     Document Type: Article

References (14)

1. TW Barker 1991 The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended-range forecasts. J Climate 4 733-742 10.1175/ 1520-0442(1991)004<0733:TRBSAF>2.0.CO;2
2. C Brankovic TN Palmer F Molteni S Tibaldi U Cubasch 1990 Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 116 867-912 10.1256/smsqj.49404
3. Carr III, LE, Elsberry RL (1995) Systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting, Part I. Approach overview and description of meteorological basis. NPS Report. N:S-MR-94-002, Naval Postgrad. Sch., Monterey, CA, 273 pp
4. KKW Cheung JCL Chan 1999a Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using barotropic model. Part I: Perturbations of the environment. Mon Wea Rev 127 1229-1243 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1999)127<1229:EFOTCM>2.0.CO;2
5. KKW Cheung JCL Chan 1999b Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using barotropic model. Part II: Perturbations of the vortex. Mon Wea Rev 127 2617-2640 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1999)127<2617:EFOTCM>2.0.CO;2
6. M DeMaria 1987 Tropical cyclone track prediction with a barotropic spectral model. Mon Wea Rev 115 2346-2355 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1987)115<2346:TCTPWA>2.0.CO;2
7. RL Elsberry 1990 International experiments to study tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 71 1305-1316 10.1175/ 1520-0477(1990)071<1305:IETSTC>2.0.CO;2
8. TM Hamill SJ Colucci 1998 Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon Wea Rev 126 711-724 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1998)126<0711:EOEREP>2.0.CO;2
9. GJ Holland LM Leslie EA Ritchie GS Dietachmayer PE Powers M Klink 1991 An interactive analysis and forecast system for tropical cyclone motion. Wea Forecast 6 415-424 10.1175/ 1520-0434(1991)006<0415:AIAAFS>2.0.CO;2
10. E Kalnay A Dalcher 1987 Forecasting forecast skill. Mon Wea Rev 115 349-356 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<0349:FFS>2.0.CO;2
11. Y Kurihara MA Bender RJ Ross 1995 Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon Wea Rev 123 2791-2801 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1995)123<2791:IITGHP>2.0.CO;2
12. LM Leslie GJ Holland 1995 On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles. Meteorol Atmos Phys 56 101-110 10.1007/BF01022523
13. Rogeres E, Stephen SL, Deaven DG, DiMego GJ (1993) Data assimilation and forecasting for the tropical cyclone motion experiment at the National Meteorological Center. Preprints, 20th Conf. Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio, Amer Meteor Soc, pp 329-330
14. Z Toth E Kalnay 1993 Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 74 2317-2330 10.1175/ 1520-0477(1993)074<2317:EFANTG>2.0.CO;2