Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 3-11

  Fraedrich, Klaus ^a   Raible, Christoph C ^a,b   Sielmann, Frank ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; MODELS; STORMS;

CYCLONE TRACKS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; FORECAST ERRORS; OPTIMAL ENSEMBLE; REFERENCE MODELING; SELF ADAPTING; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

HURRICANES;

EID: 33645470581     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0003:AEFOTC>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Cheung, K. K. W. 2001: Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion: Comparison between regional bred modes and random perturbations. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 78, 23-34.
2. Elsberry, R. L., and L. E. Carr 2000: Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track forecasts-error versus spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4131-4138.
3. Fraedrich, K., and L. M. Leslie 1987: Combining predictive schemes in short-term forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1640-1644.
4. Fraedrich, K., and L. M. Leslie 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. Part I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115, 79-92.
5. Fraedrich, K., and C. Ziehmann-Schlumbohm 1994: Predictability experiments of persistence forecasts in a red noise atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 387-428.
6. Fraedrich, K., and B. Rueckert 1998: Metric adaption for analog forecasting. Physica A, 253, 379-393.
7. Fraedrich, K., R. Morison, and L. M. Leslie 2000: Improved tropical cyclone track predictions by error recycling. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 74, 51-56.
8. Goerss, J. 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
9. Hope, J. R., and C. J. Neumann 1970: An operational technique for relating the movement of existing tropical cyclones to past tracks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98, 925-933.
10. Leslie, L. M., and K. Fraedrich 1990: Reduction of tropical cyclone position errors using an optimal combination of independent forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 158-161.
11. Leslie, L. M., G. J. Holland, M. Glover, and F. Woodcock 1990: The skill of tropical cyclone position forecasting in the Australian region. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38, 87-92.
12. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
13. Neumann, C. J. 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN (Hurricane Analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 32 pp.
14. Neumann, C. J. 1981: Trends in forecasting the tracks of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 1473-1485.
15. Neumann, C. J., and J. M. Pelissier 1981a: An analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast errors, 1970-1979. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 1248-1266.
16. Neumann, C. J., and J. M. Pelissier 1981b: Models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the North Atlantic: An operational evaluation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 522-538.
17. Pike, A. C., and C. J. Neumann 1987: The variation of track forecast difficulty among tropical cyclone basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 237-241.
18. Sauer, T., J. A. Yorke, and M. Casdagli 1991: Embedology. J. Stat. Phys., 65, 579-615.
19. Sievers, O., K. Fraedrich, and C. C. Raible 2000: Self-adapting analog ensemble predictions of tropical cyclone tracks. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 623-629.
20. Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti 1997: Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2785-2795.