메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 21, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 389-410

Confirmation in the cognitive sciences: The problematic case of Bayesian models

Author keywords

Bayesian modeling; Levels of explanation; Methodology in cognitive science; Rationality

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN INFERENCE; BAYESIAN MODEL; BAYESIAN MODELING; COGNITIVE SCIENCE; EXPECTED UTILITY; EXPERIMENTAL CONFIRMATION; HUMAN LEARNING; LEVELS OF EXPLANATION; METHODOLOGY IN COGNITIVE SCIENCE; PROBABILITY MATCHING; RATIONALITY;

EID: 80053591763     PISSN: 09246495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11023-011-9241-3     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (47)

References (75)
  • 2
    • 34247372008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling cross-domain causal learning in preschoolers as Bayesian inference
    • R. Sun & N. Miyake (Eds.) Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
    • Bonawitz, E. B., Griffiths, T. L., & Schulz, L. E. (2006). Modeling cross-domain causal learning in preschoolers as Bayesian inference. In R. Sun & N. Miyake (Eds.), Proceedings of the 28th annual conference of the Cognitive Science Society. (pp. 89-94). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
    • (2006) Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society , pp. 89-94
    • Bonawitz, E.B.1    Griffiths, T.L.2    Schulz, L.E.3
  • 3
    • 0002683613 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rational analysis of mind and behavior
    • Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2000). The rational analysis of mind and behavior. Synthese, 122, 93-131.
    • (2000) Synthese , vol.122 , pp. 93-131
    • Chater, N.1    Oaksford, M.2
  • 6
    • 33746263998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic models of cognition: Conceptual foundations
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.007, PII S136466130600132X
    • Chater, N., Tenenbaum, J. B., & Yuille, A. (2006). Probabilistic models of cognition: Conceptual foundations. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 287-291. (Pubitemid 44094229)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 287-291
    • Chater, N.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2    Yuille, A.3
  • 7
    • 33746365099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian theories of conditioning in a changing world
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.004, PII S1364661306001288
    • Courville, A. C., Daw, N. D., & Touretzky, D. S. (2006). Bayesian theories of conditioning in a changing world. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 294-300. (Pubitemid 44109995)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 294-300
    • Courville, A.C.1    Daw, N.D.2    Touretzky, D.S.3
  • 8
    • 80053605731 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rational analyses, instrumentalism, and implementations
    • N. Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.) Oxford: Oxford University Press
    • Danks, D. (2008). Rational analyses, instrumentalism, and implementations. In N. Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for rational models of cognition (pp. 59-75). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    • (2008) The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Rational Models of Cognition , pp. 59-75
    • Danks, D.1
  • 9
    • 0001918661 scopus 로고
    • La prevision: Ses lois logiques, se sources subjectives
    • de Finetti, B. (1937). La prevision: Ses lois logiques, se sources subjectives. Annales De L'institut Henri Poincare, 7, 1-68.
    • (1937) Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincare , vol.7 , pp. 1-68
    • De Finetti, B.1
  • 10
    • 24244431934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference to the best explanation made coherent
    • Douven, I. (1999). Inference to the best explanation made coherent. Philosophy of Science, 66, S424-S435.
    • (1999) Philosophy of Science , vol.66
    • Douven, I.1
  • 12
    • 65649110869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does rational analysis stand up to rational analysis?
    • Evans, J. S. B. T. (2009). Does rational analysis stand up to rational analysis? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32(1), 88-89.
    • (2009) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.32 , Issue.1 , pp. 88-89
    • Evans, J.S.B.T.1
  • 13
    • 84980182354 scopus 로고
    • A note on probability matching and rational choice
    • Fiorina, M. P. (1971). A note on probability matching and rational choice. Behavioral Science, 16, 158-166.
    • (1971) Behavioral Science , vol.16 , pp. 158-166
    • Fiorina, M.P.1
  • 14
    • 0001279764 scopus 로고
    • Probabilities over rich languages, testing, and randomness
    • Gaifman, H., & Snir, M. (1982). Probabilities over rich languages, testing, and randomness. Journal of Symbolic Logic, 47, 495-548.
    • (1982) Journal of Symbolic Logic , vol.47 , pp. 495-548
    • Gaifman, H.1    Snir, M.2
  • 16
    • 28144442965 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structure and strength in causal induction
    • DOI 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2005.05.004, PII S0010028505000459
    • Griffiths, T. L., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2005). Structure and strength in causal induction. Cognitive Psychology, 51(4), 334-384. (Pubitemid 41693213)
    • (2005) Cognitive Psychology , vol.51 , Issue.4 , pp. 334-384
    • Griffiths, T.L.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2
  • 17
    • 0003333952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian analysis of some forms of inductive reasoning
    • M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.) New York: Oxford University Press
    • Heit, E. (1998). A Bayesian analysis of some forms of inductive reasoning. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Rational models of cognition (pp. 248-274). New York: Oxford University Press.
    • (1998) Rational Models of Cognition , pp. 248-274
    • Heit, E.1
  • 18
    • 0347575276 scopus 로고
    • Bayesianism and reliable scientific inquiry
    • Juhl, C. F. (1993). Bayesianism and reliable scientific inquiry. Philosophy of Science, 60, 302-319.
    • (1993) Philosophy of Science , vol.60 , pp. 302-319
    • Juhl, C.F.1
  • 19
    • 34249756167 scopus 로고
    • The computable testability of theories making uncomputable predictions
    • Kelly, K. T., & Schulte, O. (1995). The computable testability of theories making uncomputable predictions. Erkenntnis, 43, 29-66.
    • (1995) Erkenntnis , vol.43 , pp. 29-66
    • Kelly, K.T.1    Schulte, O.2
  • 20
    • 34247368422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning overhypotheses with hierarchical Bayesian models
    • Kemp, C., Perfors, A., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2007). Learning overhypotheses with hierarchical Bayesian models. Developmental Science, 10(3), 307-321.
    • (2007) Developmental Science , vol.10 , Issue.3 , pp. 307-321
    • Kemp, C.1    Perfors, A.2    Tenenbaum, J.B.3
  • 25
    • 33746260457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian decision theory in sensorimotor control
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.003, PII S1364661306001276
    • Körding, K. P., & Wolpert, D. M. (2006). Bayesian decision theory in sensorimotor control. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 319-326. (Pubitemid 44094227)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 319-326
    • Kording, K.P.1    Wolpert, D.M.2
  • 26
    • 0042565834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical Bayesian inference in the visual cortex
    • Lee, T. S., & Mumford, D. (2003). Hierarchical Bayesian inference in the visual cortex. Journal of the Optical Society of America A, 20(7), 1434-1448.
    • (2003) Journal of the Optical Society of America A , vol.20 , Issue.7 , pp. 1434-1448
    • Lee, T.S.1    Mumford, D.2
  • 27
    • 18644379277 scopus 로고
    • The demons of decision
    • Levi, I. (1988). The demons of decision. Monist, 70, 193-211.
    • (1988) Monist , vol.70 , pp. 193-211
    • Levi, I.1
  • 28
    • 65649085925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Money pumps and diachronic books
    • Levi, I. (2002). Money pumps and diachronic books. Philosophy of Science, 69, S235-S247.
    • (2002) Philosophy of Science , vol.69
    • Levi, I.1
  • 30
    • 0000603047 scopus 로고
    • The choice axiom after twenty years
    • Luce, R. D. (1977). The choice axiom after twenty years. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15(3), 215-233.
    • (1977) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.15 , Issue.3 , pp. 215-233
    • Luce, R.D.1
  • 31
    • 0347575320 scopus 로고
    • Diachronic rationality
    • Maher, P. (1992). Diachronic rationality. Philosophy of Science, 59, 120-141.
    • (1992) Philosophy of Science , vol.59 , pp. 120-141
    • Maher, P.1
  • 34
    • 0037399538 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • PAC-Bayesian stochastic model selection
    • McAllester, D. A. (2003). PAC-Bayesian stochastic model selection. Machine Learning, 51(1), 5-21.
    • (2003) Machine Learning , vol.51 , Issue.1 , pp. 5-21
    • McAllester, D.A.1
  • 35
    • 0002297105 scopus 로고
    • Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior
    • P. Zarembka (Ed.) New York: Academic Press
    • McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in econometrics (pp. 105-142). New York: Academic Press.
    • (1974) Frontiers in Econometrics , pp. 105-142
    • McFadden, D.1
  • 36
    • 11144290736 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framing effects in inference tasks - And why they are normatively defensible
    • McKenzie, C. R. M. (2004). Framing effects in inference tasks-and why they are normatively defensible. Memory & Cognition, 32(6), 874-885. (Pubitemid 40041467)
    • (2004) Memory and Cognition , vol.32 , Issue.6 , pp. 874-885
    • McKenzie, C.R.M.1
  • 37
    • 33845588124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian view of covariation assessment
    • DOI 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2006.04.004, PII S0010028506000260
    • McKenzie, C. R. M., & Mikkelsen, L. A. (2007). A Bayesian view of covariation assessment. Cognitive Psychology, 54(1), 33-61. (Pubitemid 44932853)
    • (2007) Cognitive Psychology , vol.54 , Issue.1 , pp. 33-61
    • McKenzie, C.R.M.1    Mikkelsen, L.A.2
  • 38
    • 84898980518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A rational analysis of cognitive control in a speeded discrimination task
    • T.Dietterich, S. Becker, & Z. Ghahramani (Eds.) Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press
    • Mozer, M. C., Colagrosso, M. D., & Huber, D. E. (2002). A rational analysis of cognitive control in a speeded discrimination task. In T.Dietterich, S. Becker, & Z. Ghahramani (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems 14 (pp. 51-57). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
    • (2002) Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , vol.14 , pp. 51-57
    • Mozer, M.C.1    Colagrosso, M.D.2    Huber, D.E.3
  • 40
    • 65649146846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Naive optimality: Subjects' heuristics can be better motivated than experiments' optimal models
    • Nelson, J. D. (2009). Naive optimality: Subjects' heuristics can be better motivated than experiments' optimal models. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32(1), 94-95.
    • (2009) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.32 , Issue.1 , pp. 94-95
    • Nelson, J.D.1
  • 43
    • 80053585340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Open peer commentary and authors' response
    • Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2009). Open peer commentary and authors' response. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32(1), 85-120.
    • (2009) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.32 , Issue.1 , pp. 85-120
    • Oaksford, M.1    Chater, N.2
  • 47
    • 79959810393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development
    • in press
    • Perfors, A., Tenenbaum, J., Griffiths, T. L., & Xu, F. (in press). A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development. Cognition.
    • Cognition
    • Perfors, A.1    Tenenbaum, J.2    Griffiths, T.L.3    Xu, F.4
  • 48
    • 0001776741 scopus 로고
    • Truth and probability
    • R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.) London: Harcourt, Brace & Co
    • Ramsey, F. P. (1931). Truth and probability. In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), The foundations of mathematics and other logical essays (pp. 156-198). London: Harcourt, Brace & Co.
    • (1931) The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays , pp. 156-198
    • Ramsey, F.P.1
  • 49
    • 27544474179 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian inference and attentional modulation in the visual cortex
    • DOI 10.1097/01.wnr.0000183900.92901.fc
    • Rao, R. P. N. (2005). Bayesian inference and attentional modulation in the visual cortex. Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuropsychology, 16(16), 1843-1848. (Pubitemid 41547059)
    • (2005) NeuroReport , vol.16 , Issue.16 , pp. 1843-1848
    • Rao, R.P.N.1
  • 52
    • 0035228889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian model for implicit effects in perceptual identification
    • Schooler, L. J., Shiffrin, R. M., & Raaijmakers, J. G. W. (2001). A Bayesian model for implicit effects in perceptual identification. Psychological Review, 108(1), 257-272. (Pubitemid 33604133)
    • (2001) Psychological Review , vol.108 , Issue.1 , pp. 257-272
    • Schooler, L.J.1    Shiffrin, R.M.2    Raaijmakers, J.G.W.3
  • 53
    • 0039308828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The logic of reliable and efficient inquiry
    • Schulte, O. (1999). The logic of reliable and efficient inquiry. Journal of Philosophical Logic, 28, 399-438.
    • (1999) Journal of Philosophical Logic , vol.28 , pp. 399-438
    • Schulte, O.1
  • 54
    • 34548816158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can being scared make your tummy ache? Naive theories, ambiguous evidence and preschoolers' causal inferences
    • Schulz, L. E., Bonawitz, E. B., & Griffiths, T. L. (2007). Can being scared make your tummy ache? Naive theories, ambiguous evidence and preschoolers' causal inferences. Developmental Psychology, 43(5), 1124-1139.
    • (2007) Developmental Psychology , vol.43 , Issue.5 , pp. 1124-1139
    • Schulz, L.E.1    Bonawitz, E.B.2    Griffiths, T.L.3
  • 55
    • 0041464774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • PAC-Bayesian generalisation error bounds for Gaussian process classification
    • Seeger, M. (2003). PAC-Bayesian generalisation error bounds for Gaussian process classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3, 233-269.
    • (2003) Journal of Machine Learning Research , vol.3 , pp. 233-269
    • Seeger, M.1
  • 56
    • 0013315245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Re-Examination of Probability Matching and Rational Choice
    • DOI 10.1002/bdm.413
    • Shanks, D. R., Tunney, R. J., & McCarthy, J. D. (2002). A re-examination of probability matching and rational choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15, 233-250. (Pubitemid 37282701)
    • (2002) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.15 , Issue.3 , pp. 233-250
    • Shanks, D.R.1    Tunney, R.J.2    McCarthy, J.D.3
  • 57
    • 0000803223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model for recognition memory: REM - Retrieving effectively from memory
    • Shiffrin, R. M., & Steyvers, M. (1997). A model for recognition memory: REM-Retrieving effectively from memory. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 4, 145-166. (Pubitemid 127459383)
    • (1997) Psychonomic Bulletin and Review , vol.4 , Issue.2 , pp. 145-166
    • Shiffrin, R.M.1    Steyvers, M.2
  • 58
    • 33745649255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of decision making in causal learning from interventions
    • Sobel, D. M., & Kushnir, T. (2006). The importance of decision making in causal learning from interventions. Memory & Cognition, 34(2), 411-419.
    • (2006) Memory & Cognition , vol.34 , Issue.2 , pp. 411-419
    • Sobel, D.M.1    Kushnir, T.2
  • 59
    • 2442704284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Children's causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers
    • DOI 10.1016/j.cogsci.2003.11.001, PII S0364021303001149
    • Sobel, D. M., Tenenbaum, J. B., & Gopnik, A. (2004). Children's causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers. Cognitive Science, 28, 303-333. (Pubitemid 38670702)
    • (2004) Cognitive Science , vol.28 , Issue.3 , pp. 303-333
    • Sobel, D.M.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2    Gopnik, A.3
  • 61
    • 79961241069 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rational analysis as a link between human memory and information retrieval
    • N. Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.) Oxford: Oxford University Press
    • Steyvers, M., & Griffiths, T. L. (2008). Rational analysis as a link between human memory and information retrieval. In N. Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 329-349). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    • (2008) The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science , pp. 329-349
    • Steyvers, M.1    Griffiths, T.L.2
  • 62
    • 33746264001 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic inference in human semantic memory
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.005, PII S136466130600129X
    • Steyvers, M., Griffiths, T. L., & Dennis, S. (2006). Probabilistic inference in human semantic memory. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 327-334. (Pubitemid 44094228)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 327-334
    • Steyvers, M.1    Griffiths, T.L.2    Dennis, S.3
  • 63
    • 0037564509 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferring causal networks from observations and interventions
    • DOI 10.1016/S0364-0213(03)00010-7, PII S0364021303000107
    • Steyvers, M., Tenenbaum, J. B., Wagenmakers, E., & Blum, B. (2003). Inferring causal networks from observations and interventions. Cognitive Science, 27, 453-489. (Pubitemid 36598417)
    • (2003) Cognitive Science , vol.27 , Issue.3 , pp. 453-489
    • Steyvers, M.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2    Wagenmakers, E.-J.3    Blum, B.4
  • 64
    • 0002293206 scopus 로고
    • Conditionalization and observation
    • Teller, P. (1973). Conditionalization and observation. Synthese, 26, 218-238.
    • (1973) Synthese , vol.26 , pp. 218-238
    • Teller, P.1
  • 67
    • 33746260413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.009, PII S1364661306001343
    • Tenenbaum, J. B., Griffiths, T. L., & Kemp, C. (2006). Theory-Based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 309-318. (Pubitemid 44094231)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 309-318
    • Tenenbaum, J.B.1    Griffiths, T.L.2    Kemp, C.3
  • 68
    • 34247338661 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intuitive theories as grammars for causal inference
    • A. Gopnik & L. E. Schulz (Eds.) Oxford: Oxford University Press
    • Tenenbaum, J. B., Griffiths, T. L., & Niyogi, S. (2007). Intuitive theories as grammars for causal inference. In A. Gopnik & L. E. Schulz (Eds.), Causal learning: Psychology, philosophy, and computation (pp. 301-322). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    • (2007) Causal Learning: Psychology, Philosophy, and Computation , pp. 301-322
    • Tenenbaum, J.B.1    Griffiths, T.L.2    Niyogi, S.3
  • 70
    • 0001631979 scopus 로고
    • Belief and the will
    • Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
    • Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. van Fraassen, B. C. (1984). Belief and the will. Journal of Philosophy, 81(5), 235-256.
    • (1984) Journal of Philosophy , vol.81 , Issue.5 , pp. 235-256
    • Van Fraassen, B.C.1
  • 71
    • 0034014181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An economist's perspective on probability matching
    • Vulkan, N. (2000). An economist's perspective on probability matching. Journal of Economic Surveys, 14, 101-118. (Pubitemid 30137408)
    • (2000) Journal of Economic Surveys , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 101-118
    • Vulkan, N.1
  • 72
    • 0037367755 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability
    • West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2003). Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability. Memory & Cognition, 31(2), 243-251. (Pubitemid 36523503)
    • (2003) Memory and Cognition , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 243-251
    • West, R.F.1    Stanovich, K.E.2
  • 74
    • 34247380281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity to sampling in Bayesian word learning
    • Xu, F., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2007). Sensitivity to sampling in Bayesian word learning. Developmental Science, 10(3), 288-297.
    • (2007) Developmental Science , vol.10 , Issue.3 , pp. 288-297
    • Xu, F.1    Tenenbaum, J.B.2
  • 75
    • 33746220445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vision as Bayesian inference: analysis by synthesis?
    • DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2006.05.002, PII S1364661306001264
    • Yuille, A., & Kersten, D. (2006). Vision as Bayesian inference: Analysis by synthesis? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 301-308. (Pubitemid 44094226)
    • (2006) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.10 , Issue.7 , pp. 301-308
    • Yuille, A.1    Kersten, D.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.