Global modes of sea surface temperature variability in relation to regional climate indices

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 16, 2011, Pages 4314-4331

  Messié, Monique ^a   Chavez, Francisco ^a  

^a MONTEREY BAY AQUARIUM RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Empirical orthogonal functions; Oscillations; Pacific Ocean; Principal component analysis; Regional effects; Sea surface temperature

Indexed keywords

EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION; OSCILLATIONS; PACIFIC OCEAN; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS; REGIONAL EFFECTS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; FOURIER ANALYSIS; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; SURFACE PROPERTIES; TIME SERIES;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GYRE; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 80052621548     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI3941.1     Document Type: Article

References (108)

1. Alexander, M. A., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N. C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 2205-2231.
2. Alexander, M. A., D. J. Vimont, P. Chang, and J. D. Scott, 2010: The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on ENSO: Testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism using coupled model experiments. J. Climate, 23, 2885-2901.
3. Allan, R., and T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004. J. Climate, 19, 5816-5842.
4. An, S. I., and B. Wang, 2000: Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency. J. Climate, 13, 2044-2055.
5. An, S. I., and B. Wang, 2005: The forced and intrinsic low-frequency modes in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 18, 876-885.
6. An, S. I., J. S. Kug, A. Timmermann, I. S. Kang, and O. Timm, 2007: The influence of ENSO on the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 667-680.
7. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
8. Bakun, A., 2005: Regime shifts. The Sea, A. R. Robinson and K. Brink, Eds., The Global Coastal Ocean: Multiscale Interdisciplinary Processes, Vol. 13, Harvard University Press, 971-1018.
9. Barber, R. T., and F. P. Chavez, 1983: Biological consequences of El Niño. Science, 222, 1203-1210.
10. Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, and R. Saravanan, 1999a: Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615-618.
11. Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, R. Saravanan, N. Schneider, D. Dommenget, and M. Latif, 1999b: Origins of the midlatitude Pacific decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1453-1456.
12. Bejarano, L., and F.-F. Jin, 2008: Coexistence of equatorial coupled modes of ENSO. J. Climate, 21, 3051-3067.
13. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172.
14. Bond, N. A., J. E. Overland, M. Spillane, and P. Stabeno, 2003: Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2183, doi:10.1029/2003GL018597.
15. Breaker, L. C., 2007:Acloser look at regime shifts based on coastal observations along the eastern boundary of the North Pacific. Cont. Shelf Res., 27, 2250-2277.
16. Ceballos, L. I., E. Di Lorenzo, C. D. Hoyos, N. Schneider, and B. Taguchi, 2009: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation synchronizes climate fluctuations in the eastern and western boundary systems. J. Climate, 22, 5163-5174.
17. Chang, P., and Coauthors, 2006: Climate fluctuations of tropical coupled systems-The role of ocean dynamics. J. Climate, 19, 5122-5174.
18. Chavez, F. P., 2005: Biological consequences of interannual to multidecadal variability. The Sea,A. R.Robinson andK.Brink, Eds., The Global Coastal Ocean: Multiscale Interdisciplinary Processes, Vol. 13, Harvard University Press, 643-680.
19. Chavez, F. P., and M. Messié, 2009: A comparison of eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems. Prog. Oceanogr., 83, 80-96.
20. Chavez, F. P., and Coauthors, 2002: Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997-1998 El Niño in central California waters. Prog. Oceanogr., 54, 205-232.
21. Chavez, F. P., J. P. Ryan, S. E. Lluch-Cota, and C. M. Ñiquen, 2003: From anchovies to sardines and back: Multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science, 299, 217-221.
22. Chavez, F. P., M. Messié, and J. T. Pennington, 2011: Marine primary production in relation to climate variability and change. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 3, 227-260.
23. Chen, G., and C.-Y. Tam, 2010: Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01803, doi:10.1029/2009GL041708.
24. Cheng, X., G. Nitsche, and J. M. Wallace, 1995: Robustness of lowfrequency circulation patterns derived from EOF and rotated EOF analyses. J. Climate, 8, 1709-1720.
25. Chhak, K. C., E. Di Lorenzo, N. Schneider, and P. F. Cummins, 2009: Forcing of low-frequency ocean variability in the northeast Pacific. J. Climate, 22, 1255-1276.
26. Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: On the relationship between tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations. J. Climate, 8, 1677-1680.
27. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1999: Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, 12, 1697-1706.
28. Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124.
29. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S. P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115-143.
30. deYoung, B., R. Harris, J. Alheit, G. Beaugrand, N. Mantua, and L. Shannon, 2004: Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations. Prog. Oceanogr., 60, 143-164.
31. Di Lorenzo, E., and Coauthors, 2008: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08607, doi:10.1029/2007GL032838.
32. Di Lorenzo, E., and Coauthors, 2009: Nutrient and salinity decadal variations in the central and eastern North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14601, doi:10.1029/2009GL038261.
33. Di Lorenzo, E., K. M. Cobb, J. C. Furtado, N. Schneider, B. Anderson, A. Bracco, M. A. Alexander, and D. Vimont, 2010: Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean. Nat. Geosci., 3, 762-765.
34. Enfield, D. B., and A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, 1999: Multiscale variabilities in global sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropospheric climate patterns. J. Climate, 12, 2719-2733.
35. Enfield, D. B., and A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, 2000: Global modes of ENSO and non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability and their association with climate. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 89-112.
36. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080.
37. Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2000: Is El Niño changing? Science, 288, 1997-2002.
38. Francis, R. C., S. R. Hare, A. B. Hollowed, and W. S.Wooster, 1998: Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Fish. Oceanogr., 7, 1-21.
39. Grinsted, A., J. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2004: Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 11, 561-566.
40. Guan, B., and S. Nigam, 2008: Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century: An evolution-centric analysis of variability and trend. J. Climate, 21, 2790-2809.
41. Guan, B., and S. Nigam, 2009: Analysis of Atlantic SST variability factoring interbasin links and the secular trend: Clarified structure of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J. Climate, 22, 4228-4240.
42. Hare, S. R., and N. J. Mantua, 2000: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog. Oceanogr., 47, 103-145.
43. Kao, H.-Y., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 615-632.
44. Kawamura, R., 1994: A rotated EOF analysis of global sea surface temperature variability with interannual and interdecadal scales. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 707-715.
45. Kerr, R. A., 2000: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science, 288, 1984-1985.
46. Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, and S.-I. An, 2009: Two types of El Niño events: Cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 1499-1515.
47. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño. Science, 314, 115-119.
48. Kwon, Y.-O., M. A. Alexander, N. A. Bond, C. Frankignoul, H. Nakamura, B. Qiu, and L. Thompson, 2010: Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction: A review. J. Climate, 23, 3249-3281.
49. Lagerloef, G. S. E., 1995: Interdecadal variations in the Alaska gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 2242-2258.
50. Larkin, N. K., and D. E. Harrison, 2005: Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022860.
51. Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634-637.
52. Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1996: Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability. J. Climate, 9, 2407-2423.
53. Lee, T., and M. J. McPhaden, 2010: Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14603, doi:10.1029/2010GL044007.
54. Lee, T., and Coauthors, 2010: Record warming in the South Pacific and western Antarctica associated with the strong central-Pacific El Niño in 2009-10. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044865.
55. Lees, K., S. Pitois, C. Scott, C. Frid, and S. Mackinson, 2006: Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment. Fish Fish., 7, 104-127.
56. Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare, 2002: The Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr., 58, 35-44.
57. Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079.
58. Martinez, E., D. Antoine, F. d'Ortenzio, and B. Gentili, 2009: Climate-driven basin-scale decadal oscillations of oceanic phytoplankton. Science, 326, 1253-1256.
59. McPhaden, M. J., 2002: El Niño and La Niña: Causes and global consequences. The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change,M. C.MacCracken and J. S. Perry, Eds., Vol. 1, Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons, 353-370.
60. McPhaden, M. J., and D. Zhang, 2002: Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean. Nature, 415, 603-608.
61. McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, 2006: ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science. Science, 314, 1740.
62. Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., and D. B. Enfield, 1999: Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability. J. Climate, 12, 2734-2746.
63. Miller, A. J., and N. Schneider, 2000: Interdecadal climate regime dynamics in the North Pacific Ocean: Theories, observations and ecosystem impacts. Prog. Oceanogr., 47, 355-379.
64. Miller, A. J., D. R. Cayan, T. P. Barnett, N. E. Graham, and J. M. Oberhuber, 1994: The 1976-77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean. Oceanography, 7, 21-26.
65. Miller, A. J., D. R. Cayan, and W. B. White, 1998: A westward-intensified decadal change in the North Pacific thermocline and gyre-scale circulation. J. Climate, 11, 3112-3127.
66. Miller, A. J., F. Chai, S. Chiba, J. R. Moisan, and D. J. Neilson, 2004: Decadal-scale climate and ecosystem interactions in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Oceanogr., 60, 163-188.
67. Nakamura, H., G. Lin, and T. Yamagata, 1997: Decadal climate variability in the North Pacific during the recent decades. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2215-2225.
68. Neelin, J. D., D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F.-F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. E. Zebiak, 1998: ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 261-14 290.
69. Newman, M., G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander, 2003: ENSOforced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Climate, 16, 3853-3857.
70. North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699-706.
71. Overland, J., S. Rodionov, S. Minobe, and N. Bond, 2008: North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions. Prog. Oceanogr., 77, 92-102.
72. Peterson, W. T., and F. B. Schwing, 2003: A new climate regime in northeast Pacific ecosystems. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1896, doi:10.1029/2003GL017528.
73. Philander, S. G. H., 1986: Unusual conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean in 1984. Nature, 322, 236-238.
74. Philander, S. G. H., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 289 pp.
75. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, and M. Latif, 2000: Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal timescales. J. Climate, 13, 1173-1194.
76. Qiu, B., 2003: Kuroshio Extension variability and forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillations: Responses and potential feedback. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 2465-2483.
77. Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2010: Eddy-mean flow interaction in the decadally modulating Kuroshio Extension system. Deep-Sea Res. II, 57, 1098-1110.
78. Rodionov, S. N., J. E. Overland, and N. A. Bond, 2005: The Aleutian low and winter climatic conditions in the Bering Sea. Part I: Classification. J. Climate, 18, 160-177.
79. Ruiz-Barradas, A., J. A. Carton, and S. Nigam, 2000: Structure of interannual-to-decadal climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector. J. Climate, 13, 3285-3297.
80. Schneider, N., and B. D. Cornuelle, 2005: The forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Climate, 18, 4355-4373.
81. Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, and D. W. Pierce, 2002: Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability. J. Climate, 15, 586-605.
82. Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, N. H. Naik, M. A. Cane, and J. Miller, 2001: Wind-driven shifts in the latitude of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension and generation of SST anomalies on decadal timescales. J. Climate, 14, 4249-4265.
83. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman, 2009: Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040313.
84. Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510.
85. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
86. Sverdrup, H. U., M. W. Johnson, and R. H. Fleming, 1942: The Oceans, Their Physics, Chemistry, and General Biology. Prentice-Hall, 1087 pp.
87. Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
88. Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78.
89. Torrence, C., and P. J. Webster, 1999: Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. J. Climate, 12, 2679-2690.
90. Tourre, Y. M., and W. B. White, 1995: ENSO signals in global upper-ocean temperature. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 1317-1332.
91. Trenberth, K. E., 1976: Spatial and temporal variations of the SouthernOscillation. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 102, 639-653.
92. Vimont, D. J., 2005: The contribution of the interannual ENSO cycle to the spatial pattern of decadal ENSO-like variability. J. Climate, 18, 2080-2092.
93. Vimont, D. J., D. S. Battisti, and A. C. Hirst, 2001: Footprinting: A seasonal connection between the tropics and mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3923-3926.
94. Vimont, D. J., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 2003: The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO. J. Climate, 16, 2668-2675.
95. Walker, G. T., and E. W. Bliss, 1932: World weather V. Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 4, 53-84.
96. Wang, B., and Y. Wang, 1996: Temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation as revealed by waveform and wavelet analysis. J. Climate, 9, 1586-1598.
97. Wang, C., and S. Dong, 2010: Is the basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08707, doi:10.1029/2010GL042743.
98. Wang, X., D. Wang, and W. Zhou, 2009: Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Niño and La Niña occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11701, doi:10.1029/2009GL037929.
99. Weare, B. C., A. R. Navato, and R. E. Newell, 1976: Empirical orthogonal analysis of Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 6, 671-678.
100. Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 1993: Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC and Cosponsors, 52-57.
101. Xie, S. P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966-986.
102. Yasunaka, S., and K. Hanawa, 2005: Regime shift in the global seasurface temperatures: Its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and dominant variation modes. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 913-930.
103. Yeh, S.-W., and B. Kirtman, 2005: Pacific decadal variability and decadal ENSO amplitude modulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05703, doi:10.1029/2004GL021731.
104. Yeh, S.-W., J. S. Kug, B. Dewitte, M.H. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman, and F. F. Jin, 2009: El Niño in a changing climate. Nature, 461, 511-514.
105. Yu, J.-Y., and S. T. Kim, 2011: Relationships between extratropical sea level pressure variations and the central Pacific and eastern Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 708-720.
106. Yu, J.-Y., H.-Y. Kao, and T. Lee, 2010: Subtropics-related interannual sea surface temperature variability in the central equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 23, 2869-2884.
107. Zebiak, S. E., 1993: Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J. Climate, 6, 1567-1586.
108. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.