메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 116, Issue 6, 2011, Pages

Toward enhancement of prediction skills of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction: A climate filter concept

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; TROPICS;

EID: 79953249232     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014610     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (23)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 0742269293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI
    • doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1783
    • Barnston, A. G., S. J. Mason, L. Goddard, D. G. Dewitt, and S. E. Zebiak (2003), Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1783-1796, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1783.
    • (2003) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.84 , pp. 1783-1796
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Mason, S.J.2    Goddard, L.3    Dewitt, D.G.4    Zebiak, S.E.5
  • 2
    • 0032738634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field
    • Bretherton, C., M. Widmann, V. Dymnikov, J. Wallace, and I. Blade (1999), The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a timevarying field, J. Clim., 12, 1990-2009, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999) 0122.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 29532514)
    • (1999) Journal of Climate , vol.12 , Issue.7 , pp. 1990-2009
    • Bretherton, C.S.1    Widmann, M.2    Dymnikov, V.P.3    Wallace, J.M.4    Blade, I.5
  • 3
    • 0033844059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST
    • doi:10.1256/smsqj.56704
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Deque, and J.-P. Piedelievre (2000), Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2069-2088, doi:10.1256/smsqj.56704.
    • (2000) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.126 , pp. 2069-2088
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Deque, M.2    Piedelievre, J.-P.3
  • 4
    • 18544362809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00104.x
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer (2005), The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting: II. Calibration and combination, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 234-252. (Pubitemid 40659621)
    • (2005) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 234-252
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 5
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x
    • Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer (2005), The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting: I. Basic concept, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 219-233. (Pubitemid 40659620)
    • (2005) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 6
    • 79952248925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0763-9
    • Hudson, D., O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang (2011), The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1155-1171, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0763-9.
    • (2011) Clim. Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 1155-1171
    • Hudson, D.1    Alves, O.2    Hendon, H.H.3    Wang, G.4
  • 7
    • 0344035327 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of cumulus convection schemes on the ENSO-like phenomena simulated in a CGCM
    • DOI 10.2151/jmsj.81.805
    • Iizuka, S., K. Orito, T. Matsuura, and M. Chiba (2003), Influence of cumulus convection schemes on the ENSO-like phenomena simulated in a CGCM, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 81, 805-827, doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.805. (Pubitemid 37450497)
    • (2003) Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan , vol.81 , Issue.4 , pp. 805-827
    • Iizuka, S.1    Orito, K.2    Matsuura, T.3    Chiba, M.4
  • 9
    • 0036872437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
    • doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631 (2002)0832.3.CO;2
    • Kanamitsu, M., et al. (2002), NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1631-1643, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631 (2002)0832.3.CO;2.
    • (2002) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.83 , pp. 1631-1643
    • Kanamitsu, M.1
  • 10
    • 68249136907 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Korea using multimodel output variables as predictors
    • doi:10.1175/2008MWR2706.1
    • Kang, H., et al. (2009), Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Korea using multimodel output variables as predictors, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1928-1938, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2706.1.
    • (2009) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 1928-1938
    • Kang, H.1
  • 12
    • 0034351740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000) 0132.0.CO;2
    • Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, D. W. Shin, and C. E. Williford (2000), Multi-model superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate, J. Clim., 13, 4196-4216, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000) 0132.0.CO;2.
    • (2000) J. Clim. , vol.13 , pp. 4196-4216
    • Krishnamurti, T.N.1    Kishtawal, C.M.2    Shin, D.W.3    Williford, C.E.4
  • 13
    • 53649098906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Systematic error correction of dynamical seasonal prediction using a stepwise pattern projection method
    • doi:10.1175/ 2008MWR2272.1
    • Kug, J.-S., J.-Y. Lee, and I.-S. Kang (2008), Systematic error correction of dynamical seasonal prediction using a stepwise pattern projection method, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3501-3512, doi:10.1175/ 2008MWR2272.1.
    • (2008) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3501-3512
    • Kug, J.-S.1    Lee, J.-Y.2    Kang, I.-S.3
  • 14
    • 62149099517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of multicumulus convective ensemble on East Asian summer monsoon rainfall simulation
    • doi:10.1029/2008JD009847
    • Lee, D. Y., C.-Y. Tam, and C.-K. Park (2008), Effects of multicumulus convective ensemble on East Asian summer monsoon rainfall simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24111, doi:10.1029/2008JD009847.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.113
    • Lee, D.Y.1    Tam, C.-Y.2    Park, C.-K.3
  • 15
    • 77954952964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0857-4
    • Lee, J.-Y., et al. (2010), How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?, Clim. Dyn., 35, 267-283, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0857-4.
    • (2010) Clim. Dyn. , vol.35 , pp. 267-283
    • Lee, J.-Y.1
  • 16
    • 79953233417 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How predictable is the Northern Hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?
    • doi:10.1007/s00382- 010-0909-9, in press
    • Lee, J.-Y., et al. (2011), How predictable is the Northern Hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382- 010-0909-9, in press.
    • (2011) Clim. Dyn.
    • Lee, J.-Y.1
  • 17
    • 79952251144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0832-0
    • Lee, S.-S., J.-Y. Lee, K.-J. Ha, B. Wang, and J. K. E. Schemm (2011), Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1173-1188, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0832-0.
    • (2011) Clim. Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 1173-1188
    • Lee, S.-S.1    Lee, J.-Y.2    Ha, K.-J.3    Wang, B.4    Schemm, J.K.E.5
  • 18
    • 84905339147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Busan, Korea
    • Lee, W.-J., et al. (2009), APCC 2009 final report, APEC Clim. Cent., Busan, Korea. (Available at http://www.apcc21.net/activities/activities03-01. php).
    • (2009) APCC 2009 Final Report
    • Lee, W.-J.1
  • 19
    • 0001495043 scopus 로고
    • Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models
    • doi:10.1175/1520- 0450(1987)0262.0.CO;2
    • Michaelsen, J. (1987), Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 26, 1589-1600, doi:10.1175/1520- 0450(1987)0262.0.CO;2.
    • (1987) J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.26 , pp. 1589-1600
    • Michaelsen, J.1
  • 20
    • 69949157333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probabilistic multimodel ensemble approach to seasonal prediction
    • doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222140.1
    • Min, Y.-M., V. N. Kryjov, and C.-K. Park (2009), A probabilistic multimodel ensemble approach to seasonal prediction, Weather Forecast., 24, 812-828, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222140.1.
    • (2009) Weather Forecast. , vol.24 , pp. 812-828
    • Min, Y.-M.1    Kryjov, V.N.2    Park, C.-K.3
  • 21
    • 0033843381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
    • Palmer, T. N., C. Brankovic, and D. S. Richardson (2000), A probability and decision-model analysis of PROBOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2013-2033, doi:10.1256/smsqj.56702. (Pubitemid 30667273)
    • (2000) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , vol.126 , Issue.567 , pp. 2013-2033
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Brankovic, C.2    Richardson, D.S.3
  • 22
    • 3543083343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER)
    • doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853
    • Palmer, T. N., et al. (2004), Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 853-872, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
    • (2004) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 853-872
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 23
    • 0033843285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: Skill scores and dynamic features
    • Pavan, V., and J. Doblas-Reyes (2000), Multimodel seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: Skill scores and dynamic features, Clim. Dyn., 16, 611-625, doi:10.1007/s003820000063. (Pubitemid 30661462)
    • (2000) Climate Dynamics , vol.16 , Issue.8 , pp. 611-625
    • Pavan, V.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 24
    • 85080838118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies
    • DOI 10.1029/2002JD002712
    • Peng, P., A. Kumar, H. van den Dool, and A. G. Barnston (2002), An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D23), 4710, doi:10.1029/2002JD002712. (Pubitemid 43197264)
    • (2002) Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres , vol.107 , Issue.23 , pp. 181-1812
    • Peng, P.1    Kumar, A.2    Van Den Dool, H.3    Barnston, A.G.4
  • 25
    • 0000037820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical seasonal prediction
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)0812.3. CO;2
    • Shukla, J., et al. (2000), Dynamical seasonal prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2593-2606, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)0812.3. CO;2.
    • (2000) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.81 , pp. 2593-2606
    • Shukla, J.1
  • 28
    • 2042526025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00049.x
    • Tanaka, H. L., I. Noriko, and A. Kitoh (2004), Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere, Tellus, Ser. A, 56, 250-269. (Pubitemid 38536799)
    • (2004) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.56 , Issue.3 , pp. 250-269
    • Tanaka, H.L.1    Ishizaki, N.2    Kitoh, A.3
  • 29
    • 41449088188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5
    • Wang, B., et al. (2008), How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?, Clim. Dyn., 30, 605-619, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5.
    • (2008) Clim. Dyn. , vol.30 , pp. 605-619
    • Wang, B.1
  • 30
    • 67349238245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)
    • doi:10.1007/ s00382-008-0460-0
    • Wang, B., et al. (2009), Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004), Clim. Dyn., 33, 93-117, doi:10.1007/ s00382-008-0460-0.
    • (2009) Clim. Dyn. , vol.33 , pp. 93-117
    • Wang, B.1
  • 31
    • 0037082641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric circulation cells associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
    • Wang, C. (2002), Atmospheric circulation cells associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, J. Clim., 15, 399-419, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 34244131)
    • (2002) Journal of Climate , vol.15 , Issue.4 , pp. 399-419
    • Wang, C.1
  • 32
    • 0032853505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of spatial degrees of freedom of a climate field
    • Wang, X., and S. S. Shen (1999), Estimation of spatial degrees of freedom of a climate field, J. Clim., 12, 1280-1291, doi:10.1175/1520-0442 (1999)0122.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 29437722)
    • (1999) Journal of Climate , vol.12 , Issue.5 PART 1 , pp. 1280-1291
    • Wang, X.1    Shen, S.S.2
  • 34
    • 79953238284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF): New attachment II-8 to the manual on the GDPFS
    • World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
    • World Meteorological Organization (2006), Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF): New attachment II-8 to the manual on the GDPFS, WMO 485, vol. I, 83 pp., Geneva, Switzerland.
    • (2006) WMO 485 , vol.1 , pp. 83
  • 35
    • 0031403103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs
    • doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(1997) 0782.0.CO;2
    • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin (1997), Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(1997)0782.0.CO;2.
    • (1997) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.78 , pp. 2539-2558
    • Xie, P.1    Arkin, P.A.2
  • 36
    • 27744569360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Theoretical examination of a multi-model composite for seasonal prediction
    • DOI 10.1029/2005GL023513, L18707
    • Yoo, J. H., and I.-S. Kang (2005), Theoretical examination of a multimodel composite for seasonal prediction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18707, doi:10.1029/2005GL023513. (Pubitemid 41582591)
    • (2005) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.32 , Issue.18 , pp. 1-4
    • Yoo, J.H.1    Kang, I.-S.2
  • 37
    • 18544381247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Amulti-model superensemble algorithmfor seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts
    • Yun,W.-T., et al. (2005),Amulti-model superensemble algorithmfor seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 280-289.
    • (2005) Tellus, Ser. A , vol.57 , pp. 280-289
    • Yun, W.-T.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.