Global warming: A review of this mostly settled issue

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Volumn 23, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 643-676

  Keller, Charles F ^a,b  

^a Los Alamos National Laboratory   (United States)

^b LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Atmosphere; Carbon dioxide; Climate; Climate change; Climate modeling; Ecosystems; Environment; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Ocean; Solar activity

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE; CLIMATE MODELING; ENVIRONMENT; OCEAN; SOLAR ACTIVITY;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATOLOGY; GREENHOUSE GASES; GREENHOUSES; OCEAN ENGINEERING; OCEANOGRAPHY; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR RADIATION;

GLOBAL WARMING;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS;

EID: 67349091144     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-008-0253-3     Document Type: Review

References (136)

1. Bard E, Raisbeck GM, Yiou F, Jouzel J (1997) Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: Camparison between 14 C and 10 Be records, Earth Planet. Sci Lett 150:453-462
2. Bard E, Raisbeck G, Yiou F, Jouzel J (2000) Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides. Tellus B 52:985-991
3. Barnett T, Hasselmann K, Chelliah M, delworth T, Hegerl G, Jones P, Rasmusson E, Roeckner E, Ropelewski C, santer B, Tett S (1999) Detection and attribution of recent climate change: A status report. Bull Am Meterol Soc 80:2631-2659
4. Barnett T, Pierce D, Schnur R (2001) Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans. Science 292:271-274
5. Beer J, Vonmoos M, Muscheler R (2006) Solar variability over the past several millennia. Space Science Rev 125(1-4):67-79
6. Bony S et al (2006) How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes? J Clim 19:3445-3482
7. Bowen M (2005) Thin ice: Unlocking the secrets of climate in the world's highest mountains". ISBN-13:9788-0-800-643-8, ISBN-10: 0-8050-6443-5.
8. Bradley R (2000) Past global changes and their significance for the future. Quat Sci Rev 19:391-402
9. Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Diaz HF (2003) Climate in medieval time. Science 302:404-405
10. Breon FM (2006) Perspectives: How do aerosols affect cloudiness and climate? Science 313:623-624
11. Camp CD, Tung KK (2007) Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection. Geophys Res Lett 34:LA4703. doi: 10.1029/2007GL030207
12. Cane MA, Braconnot P, Clement A, Gildor H, Joussaume S, Kageyama M, Khodri M, Paillard D, Tett S, Zorita E (2006) Progress in paleoclimate modeling. J Clim 19:5031-5057. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3899.1
13. Cazenave A, Nerem RS (2004) Present-day sea level change: Observations and causes. Rev Geophys 42:RG3001. doi: 10.1029/2003RG000139
14. Christy JR, Spencer RW, Lobl E (1998) Analysis of the merging procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series. J Clim 11:2016-2041
15. Christy JR, Spencer RW, Norris WB, Braswell WD, Parker DE (2003) J Atmos Ocean Tech 20:613
16. Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of N. Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim 19:2036-2045
17. Church JA, White NJ (2006) A 20th century global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01602
18. Coleman RA (2003) A comparison of climate feedbacks in general circulation model. Clim Dyn 20:865-873
19. Covey C, Sloan LC, Hoffert M (1996) Paleoclimate data constraints on climate sensitivity: The paleocalibration method. Clim Change 32:165-184
20. Crowley T, Lowery T (2000) How warm was the medieval warm period. Ambio 29:51-54
21. Cuffey KM, Alley RB, Grootes PM, Bolzan JF, Anandakrishnan S (1994) Calibration of the d18O isotopic paleothermometer for central Greenland, using borehole temperatures. J Glaciol 40(135):341-349
22. Dahl-Jensen D, Mosegaard K, Gundestrup N, Clow GD, Johnsen SG, Hansen AW, Balling N (1998) Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 282:268-271
23. Damon PE, Laut P (2004) Pattern of strange errors platues solar activity and terrestrial climate data. Eos 85:370-374
24. D'Arrigo R, Jacoby G, Frank D, Pederson N, Cook E, Buckley B, Nachin B, Mijiddorj R, Dugarjav C (2001) 1738 Years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree-ring width chronology of Siberian Pine. Geophys Res Lett 28:543-546
25. Davis CH et al (2005) Snowfall-driven growth in East Antarctic ice sheet mitigates recent sea-level rise. Science 308:1898-1901. doi: 10.1126/ science.1110662
26. Esper J, Cook R, Schweingruber FH (2002) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:2250-2253
27. Folland C, Rayner N, Basnett T, Parker D, Horton B (2000) Uncertainties in climate data sets - a challenge for WMO. WMO Bull 49:59-68
28. Folland CK, Rayner N, Brown S, Smith T, Shen S, Parker D et al (2001) Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys Res Lett 28:2621-2624
29. Friss-Christensen E, Lassen K (1991) Length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254:698-700
30. Frohlich C, Lean J (2004) Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and mechanisms. Astron Astrophys Rev, 48 p
31. Fu Q, Johanson M (2004) Stratospheric influences on MSU-derived tropospheric temperature trends: A direct error analysis. J Clim 17:4636-4640
32. Fu Q, Johanson M, Warren SF, Seidel DJ (2004) Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 429:55-58
33. Fu Q, Johanson CM (2005) Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Geophys Res Lett 32:L10703
34. Gillett NP, Santer BD, Weaver AJ (2004) Stratospheric cooling and the troposphere. Nature, published online (brief communications arising) 2December 2004, (10.1038/nature 03208) 1-2
35. Haigh J (1999) A GCM study of climate change in response to the 11-year solar cycle. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:871-892
36. Haigh JD, Blackburn M (2007) Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. Space Sci Rev 125:331
37. Hansen J (2001) Statement of Dr. James E. Hansen, Head, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies before the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation United States Senate, and private communication
38. Hegerl GC, Crowley TJ, Hyde WT, Frame DJ (2006) Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440:1029-1032. doi: 10.1038/nature04679
39. Hoyt DV, Schatten KH (1993) A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations 1700-1992. J Geophys Res 98:18,895-18,906
40. Huang S, Pollack HN, Shen Po-Yu (2000) Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403:756-758
41. Hughes MK, Diaz H (1994) Was there a "Medieval Warming Period", and if so, where and when? Clim Change 26:109-142
42. IPCC (2007) Fourth assessment review
43. Jones PT, Osborn T, Briffa KR (1997) Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J Clim 10:2548-2568
44. Jones P, Groisman P, Coughlan M, Plummer N, Wang WC, Karl TR (1990) Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperatures over land. Nature 347:169-172
45. Karl TR, Hassol SJ, Miller CD, Murray WL (eds) (2006) Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences. Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the subcommittee on Global Change Research, 164 p. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/ sap1-1-final-all.pdf
46. Karoly D, Braganza K (2001a) Identifying global climate change using simple indices. Geophys Rev Lett 28:2205-2208
47. Kaufman JJ, Koren I (2006) Smoke and pollution: Aerosol effect on cloud cover. Science 313:655-658
48. Keigwin LD (1996) A little ice age and medieval warm period in the Sargasso Sea. Science 274:1504-1508
49. Keller CF (2003) Global warming: The balance of evidence and its policy implications. Sci World J 3:357-411. http://www.thescientificworld.com/ SCIENTIFICWORLDJOURNAL/toc/TSWJ_ArticleLanding.asp?jid= 141&ArticleId=1240
50. Keller CF (2004) 1000 Years of climate change. Adv Space Res 24:315-322
51. Keller CF (2007) Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: The balance of evidence and its policy implications. Sci World J 7:381-399. http://www.thescientificworld.com/SCIENTIFICWORLDJOURNAL/toc/ TSWJ_ArticleLanding.asp?jid=141&FromPage=Main&ArticleId= 2516&navFrom=Main&From=Result
52. Kennedy D (2003) The policy drought on climate change. Science 299:309
53. Kerr R (2001) Greenhouse warming passes one more test. Science 292:193
54. 2 began to rise. Science 312:1854
55. Kerr R (2007) Is a thinning haze unveiling the real global warming? Science 315:1480
56. Karoly D, Braganza K (2001b) Identifying global climate change using simple indices. Geophys Rev Lett 28:2205-2208
57. Kiehl J, Trenberth K (1997) Earth's annual global mean energy budget. Bull Am Met Soc 78:197-208
58. Kristjansson JE, Kristiansen J (2000) Is there a cosmic ray signal in recent variation in global cloudiness and cloud radiative forcing? J Geophys Res 105:11,851-11863
59. Lassen K, Friis-Christensen E (1995) Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate. J Atm Terr Phys 57:825-845
60. Laut P (2003) Solar activity and terrestrial climate: An analysis of some purported correlations. J Atm Solar Terr Phys 801:812
61. Lean JL, Rind DH (2008) Separating natural and anthropogenic influences on surface temperatures in historical instrumental records. GRL (in press)
62. Lean J, Beer J, Bradley R (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 22:3195-3198
63. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Wang J, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Broccoli AJ (2001) Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system. Science 292:267-270
64. Luckman BH, Wilson RHS (2005) Summer temperatures in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium: A revised record. Clim Dyn 24:131-144
65. Leuliette EW, Nerem RS, Mitchum GT (2004) Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter data to construct a continuous record of mean sea level change. Mar Geod 27(1-2):79-94
66. Mann ME, Jones PD (2003) Global surface temperatures over the last two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30:1820
67. Mann ME, Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Clement A (2005) Volcanic and solar forcing of the Tropical pacific over the past 1000 years. J Clim 18:447-456
68. Marsh N, Svensmark H (2000) Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays. Phys Rev Lett 85:5004-5007
69. Marsh N, Svensmark H (2003) Galactic cosmic ray and El NiÑo-Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties. J Geophys Res 108(D6)4195
70. Marsh N, Svensmark H (2004) Long-term stability of ISCCP-D2 IR cloud data: A possible artifact. J Geophys Res Atmos 108
71. deMenocal P, Ortiz J, Guilderson T, Sarnthein M (2000) Coherernt high- and low-latitude climate variability during the holocene warm period. Science 288:2198-2202
72. Mears CQ, Schabel MC, Wentz FJ (2003) A Reanalysis of the MSU? Channel 2 Tropospheric/Temperature/Record. J Clim 16:3650
73. Mears CA, Wentz FJ (2005) The effect of diurnal correction on Satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. Science 309:1548-1551
74. Mishchenko MI, Geogdzhayev IV, Rossow WB, Cairns B, Carlson BE, Lacis AA, Liu L, Travis LD (2007) Long-term satellite record reveals likely recent aerosol trend. Science 315:1543
75. Moberg A, Sonechkin dM, Holmgren K, Datsenki NM, Karlen W (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and-high resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613-617
76. Norris JR (2000) What can cloud observations tell us about climate variability? Space Sci Rev 94:375-380
77. Norris, J.R. (2007) Observed interdecdadal changes in cloudiness: Real or spurious http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/reprints/ NorrisGwattRevised.pdf
78. North GR (2006) "Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years." NRC Statement to Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Energy and Commerce, US House of Representatives, http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ocga/testimony/ Surface_Temperature_Reconstructions.asp
79. Oerlemans J (2005) Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308(5722):675-677
80. Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2006) The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311:841-844
81. Overland J, Wang M (2007) Could mother nature give the warming arctic a reprieve? Science 315:36
82. Parker DE (2006) A demonstration that large scale warming is not urban. J Clim 19(12):2882-2895. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3730.1
83. Penner JE (2000) Aerosols, effects on the climate, encyclopedia of global environmental change. In: MacCracken MC, Perry JS (eds) The Earth system: Physical and chemical dimensions of global environmental change, vol 1. Wiley, Chichester
84. Peterson T, Gallo K, Lawrimore J, Owen T, Huang A, McKittrick D (1999) Global rural temperature trends. Geophys Res Lett 26:329-332
85. Pielke R Jr, Sarewitz D (2003) Wanted: Scientific leadership on climate. Issues Sci Technol Winter 2002-2003:27-30
86. Ramanathan V, Cess R, Harrison E, Minnis P, Barkstrom B, Ahmad E, Hartmann D (1989) C, loud-radiative forcing and climate: Results from the earth radiation budget experiment. Science 243:57-63
87. Ramanathan V, Crutzen P et al (2001) The Indian Ocean experiment: An integrated analysis of the climate forcing and effects of the Great Indo-Asian Haze. J Geophys Res (in press)
88. Ramanathan V, Chung C, Kim D, Betige T et al. (2005) Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Academy of Sciences
89. Rahmstorf S, Cazenave, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316:709
90. Randel WJ, Wu F (2006) Biases in stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trends derived from historical radiosonde data. J Clim 19:2094-2104
91. Real Climate (2006) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/ 10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin svensmark rebuttal graph comparing cosmic ray flux to surface temp 1950-2006
92. 2 during the past decades. Tellus IX:19-20
93. Rietti-Shati M, Shemesh A, Karlen W (1998) A 3000-year climatic record from biogenic silica oxygen isotopes in an equatorial high-altitude lake. Science 281:980-982
94. Roe GH, Baker MB (2007) Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 318:629-631
95. Romanou A, Liepert B, Schmidt WB et al (2007) 20th century changes in surface solar irradiance in simulations and observations. Geophys Res Lett 34:L05713
96. Santer BD, Wehner MF, Wigley TML, Sausen r, Meehl GA et al (2003) Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science 301:479-483
97. Santer BD et al (2004) Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis. J Geophys Res 109. doi: 10.1029/ 2003JD005075.
98. Santer B, Wigley TML, Mears FJ et al (2005) Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309:1551-1556
99. Santer BD, Mears C, Wentz FJ, Taylor KE, Gleckler PJ, Wigley TM, Barnett TP, Boyle JS et al (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. PNAS 104:15248-15253
100. Schaefer JM, Denton GHJ, Barrell DJA, Ivy-Ochs S et al (2006) Near-synchronous Interhemisheric termination of the last glacial maximum in mid-latitudes. Science 312:1510-1513
101. Schrag DP, Alley RB (2004) Ancient lessons for our future climate. Science 306:821-822
102. Schmidt GA (2007) Further comment on "A perspective on global warming, dimming and brightening". Eos 88:473
103. Schoof C (2007) Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability and hysteresis. J Geophys Res 112:F03S28
104. Sherwood SC, Lazante JR, Meyer CL (2005) Radiosonde daytime biases and late-20th century warming. Science 309:1556-1559
105. Shindell DT, Faluvegi G, Miller RL, Schmidt GA, Hansen JE, Sun S (2006) Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys Res Lett 33:L24706. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027468
106. Shindell D (2007) Private communication
107. Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796-799
108. Soden BJ, Held IM (2006) An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J Climate 19:3354
109. Soden BJ, Jackson DL, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, Huang X (2005) The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening. Science 310:841-844
110. Soon W, Baliunas S, Posmentier E, Okeke P (2000) Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: Astronomical forcings of change in earth's climate? New Astron 4:563-579
111. Special Issue of Science (2006) Climate change - breaking the ice. Science 311(5768):24
112. Stanhill G, Cohen S (2001) Global dimming: A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences. Agric Forest Meteorol 107:255-278
113. Stern N (2007) The economics of climate change: The Stern review. ISBN-13: 9780521700801 or http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/ pressoffice/stern/
114. von Storch H et al (2004) Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306:697
115. von Storch H et al. (2006) Response to comment on "Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 512:529
116. Stott P, Tett S, Jones G, Allen M, Ingram W, Mitchell J (2001) Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes. Clim Dyn 17:1-21
117. Stuiver M, Braziunas TF (1987) Secular solar and geomagnetic variations in the last 10,000 years. Stephenson FR, Wolfendale AW (eds), pp 315-328
118. Stuiver M, Braziunas TF (1993) Modeling atmospheric C-14 influences and C-14 ages of marine samples to 10, 000 BC. Radiocarbon 35:137-189
119. Thompson L, Davis M, Mosley-Thompson E, Sowers T, Henderson KA, Zagorodnov V, Lin P, Mikhalenko V, Campen R, Bolzan J, Cole-Dai J, Francou B (1998) A 25, 000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores. Science 262:1858-1864
120. Thompson LG, Mosley-Thompson E, Brecher H, Davis ME, Leon B, Les D, Mashiotta TA, Lin P-N, Mountain K (2006) Evidence of abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(28):10536-10543. http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/Icecore/ Abstracts/Publications.html
121. Tinsley B (2000) Influence of solar wind on the global electric circuit, and inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere. Space Sci Rev 94:231-258
122. Van Loon H, Labitzke K (1999) The signal of the 11 year solar cycle in the global stratosphere. J Atm Sol Terr Phys 61:53-61
123. Vaughn DG (2007) West Antarctic links to sea level estimation. Eos 88:485-486
124. Vinnikov KY, Grody NC (2003) Global warming trend of mean tropospheric temperature observed by satellites. Science 302:269-272
125. Wagner G, Livingstone D, Masaric J, Muscheler R, Beer J (2001) Some results relevant to the discussion of a possible link between cosmic rays and the Earth's climate. J Geophys Res 106:3381-3387
126. Wang YM, Lean JL, Sheeley NR Jr (2005) Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713. Astrophysical J 625:522-538
127. Wentz FJ, Schabel M (2000) Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets. Nature 403:414-416
128. 14C wiggles and variations in solar irradiance. Phil Trans R Soc Lond 330:547-560
129. Wild M, Gilgen H, Roesch A et al (2005) From dimming to brightening: decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth's surface. Science 308:847-850
130. Winton M (2006) Surface albedo feedback estimates for the AR4 climate models. J Climate 19:359-365
131. Zhang GJ, Mu M (2005) Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the NCAR CCM3 using a revised Zhang-McFarlane convection parameterization scheme. J Clim 18:4046-4064
132. Zhang GJ, Wang H (2006) Toward mitigating the double ITCZ problem in the NCAR CCSM3. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06709. doi: 1029/2005GL025229
133. Zhang YC, Rossow WB, Lacis AA, Oinas V, Mishchenko MI (2004) Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to the top of the atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: Refinements of the radiative transfer model and the input data. J Geophys Res 109:D19105
134. Zhang T et al (2003) Distribution of seasonally and perennially frozen ground in the Northern Hemisphere. In: Phillips M, Springman SM, Arenson LU (eds) Proceedings of the 8th international conference on Permafrost, 21-25 July 2003, Zurich, Switzerland. A.A. Balkema, Lisse, the Netherlands, pp 1289-1294
135. Zillman J (1997) Atmospheric science and public policy. Science 276:1084-1086
136. Zwally HJ et al (2006) Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea level rise: 1992-2002. J Glaciol 51:509-552