Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Volumn 109, Issue 21, 2004, Pages

  Santer, Benjamin D ^a   Wigley, Tom M L ^b   Simmons, Adrian J ^c   Kållberg, Per W ^c   Kelly, Graeme A ^c   Uppala, Sakari M ^c   Ammann, Caspar ^b   Boyle, James S ^a   Brüggemann, Wolfgang ^d   Doutriaux, Charles ^a   Fiorino, Mike ^a   Mears, Carl ^e   Meehl, Gerald A ^b   Sausen, Robert ^f   Taylor, Karl E ^a   Washington, Warren M ^b   Wehner, Michael F ^g   Wentz, Frank J ^e  

^a LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^e REMOTE SENSING SYSTEMS   (United States)

^f GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^g LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Detection; Reanalysis

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; DETECTION METHOD; SATELLITE DATA; TROPOPAUSE; WARMING;

EID: 19944433169     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2004JD005075     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. AchutaRao, K., and K. R. Sperber (2002), Simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation: Results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Clim. Dyn., 19, 191-209.
2. Allen, M. R., and S. F. B. Tett (1999), Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting, Clim. Dyn., 15, 419-434.
3. Ammann, C., G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and C. S. Zender (2003), A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing data set in simulations of 20th century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1657, doi:10.1029/2003GL016875.
4. Andersson, E., et al. (1998), The ECMWF implementation of three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var). Part III: Experimental results, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1831-1860.
5. Andrae, U., N. Sokka, and K. Onogi (2004), ERA-40 Project report series. 15. The radiosonde temperature bias corrections used in ERA-40, 37 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
6. Annamalai, H., J. M. Slingo, K. R. Sperber, and K. Hodges (1999), The mean evolution and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 1157-1186.
7. Barnett, T. P., and M. E. Schlesinger (1987), Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14,772-14,780.
8. Basist, A. N., and M. Chelliah (1997), Comparison of tropospheric temperatures derived from the NCEP/NCAR reananlysis, NCEP operational analysis, and the Microwave Sounding Unit, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 7, 1431-1447.
9. Bengtsson, L., and J. Shukla (1988), Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69, 1130-1143.
10. Bengtsson, L., E. Roeckner, and M. Stendel (1999), Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?, J. Geophys. Res., 104 3865-3876.
11. Bengtsson, L., S. Hagemann, and K. I. Hodges (2004), Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D11111, doi:10.1029/2004JD004536.
12. Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, W. B. Norris, and W. D. Braswell (2003), Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 20, 613-629.
13. Dai, A., T. M. L. Wigley, B. A. Boville, J. T. Kiehl, and L. E. Buja (2001), Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR climate system model, J. Clim., 14, 486-519.
14. Dethof, A., and E. Hólm (2002), Ozone in ERA-40: 1991-1996, Tech. Memo. 377, 37 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
15. Duffy, P. B., C. Doutriaux, I. K. Fodor, and B. D. Santer (2001), Effect of missing data on estimates of near-surface temperature change since 1900, J. Clim., 14, 2809-2814.
16. Fu Q., C. M. Johanson, S. G. Warren, and D. J. Seidel (2004), Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends, Nature, 429, 55-58.
17. Gibson, K., et al. (1997), ECMWF Reanalysis Project report series. 1. ERA description, 66 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
18. Gillett, N. P., F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Weaver, and P. A. Stott (2003), Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure, Nature, 422, 292-294.
19. Hansen, J., et al. (1984), Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms, in Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 29, edited by J. Hansen and T. Takahasi, pp. 130-163, AGU, Washington, D. C.
20. Hansen, J., et al. (2002), Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D18), 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
21. Harris, B. A., and G. A. Kelly (2001), A satellite radiance bias correction scheme for data assimilation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127 1453-1468.
22. Hasselmann, K. (1979), On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies, in Meteorology of Tropical Oceans, edited by D. B. Shaw, pp. 251-259, R. Meteorol. Soc., London.
23. Hegerl, G. C., H. Storch, K. Hasselmann, B. D. Santer, U. Cubasch, and P. D. Jones (1996), Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method, J. Clim., 9, 2281-2306.
24. Highwood, E. J., and B. J. Hoskins (1998), The tropical tropopause, Q. J R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1579-1604.
25. Highwood, E. J., B. J. Hoskins, and P. Berrisford (2000), Properties of the Arctic tropopause, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1515-1532.
26. Hoyt, D. V., and K. H. Schatten (1993), A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 18,895-18,906.
27. Kållberg, P. (1997), ECMWF Reanalysis Project report series. 2. Aspects of the reanalysed climate, 89 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
28. Kållberg, P., A. Simmons, S. Uppala, and M. Fuentes (2004), ERA-40 Project report series. 17. The ERA-40 archive, 35 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
29. Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471.
30. Kelly, G., E. Andersson, A. Hollingsworth, P. Lönnberg, J. Pailleux, and Z. Zhang (1991), Quality control of operational physical retrievals of satellite sounding data, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1866-1880.
31. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers (2000), Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, J. Clim., 13, 3760-3788.
32. Kiehl, J. T., T. L. Schneider, R. W. Portmann, and S. Solomon (1999), Climate forcing due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 31,239-31,254.
33. Kistler, E., et al. (2001), The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247-267.
34. Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald (1987), Large scale changes of soil wetness induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1211-1235.
35. McNally, A. P., J. C. Derber, W. Wu, and B. B. Katz (2000), The use of TOVS level-1b radiances in the NCEP SSI analysis system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 689-724.
36. Mears, C. A., M. C. Schabel, and F. W. Wentz (2003), A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record, J. Clim., 16, 3650-3664.
37. Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, T. W. Bettge, and W. G. Strand Jr. (2000), Anthropogenic forcing and decadal climate variability in sensitivity experiments of twentieth- and twenty-first century climate, J. Clim., 13, 3728-3744.
38. Meehl, G. A., P. R. Gent, J. M. Arblaster, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, and A. Craig (2001), Factors that affect the amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models, Clim. Dyn., 17, 515-526.
39. Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, T. M. L. Wigley, J. M. Arblaster, and A. Dai (2003), Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the 20th century, J. Clim., 16, 426-444.
40. Mo, K., X. L. Wang, R. Kistler, M. Kanamitsu, and E. Kalnay (1995), Impact of satellite data on the CDAS-reanalysis system, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 124-139.
41. Pawson, S., and M. Fiorino (1998), A comparison of reanalyses in the tropical stratosphere. Part 1: Thermal structure and the annual cycle, Clim. Dyn., 14, 631-644.
42. Pawson, S., and M. Fiorino (1999), A comparison of reanalyses in the tropical stratosphere. Part 3: Inclusion of the presatellite data era, Clim. Dyn., 15, 241-250.
43. Pielke, R. A., Sr., and T. N. Chase (2004), Comment on " Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes", Science, 303, 1771b.
44. Ramaswamy, V., M. D. Schwarzkopf, and W. J. Randel (1996), Fingerprint of ozone depletion in the spatial and temporal pattern of recent lower-stratospheric cooling, Nature, 382, 616-618.
45. Ramaswamy, V., et al. (2001), Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model simulations, Rev. Geophys., 39, 71-122.
46. Randel, W. J., F. Wu, and D. Gaffen (2000), Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause derived from radiosonde data and NCEP reanalyses, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 15,509-15,523.
47. Reichler, T., M. Dameris, and R. Sausen (2003), Determining the tropopause height from gridded data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(20), 2042, doi:10.1029/2003GL018240.
48. Roeckner, E., L. Bengtsson, J. Feichter, J. Lelieveld, and H. Rodhe (1999), Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle, J. Clim., 12, 3004-3032.
49. Santer, B. D., et al. (1995), Ocean variability and its influence on the detectability of greenhouse warming signals, J. Geophys. Res., 100 10,693-10,725.
50. Santer, B. D., et al. (1999), Uncertainties in observationally based estimates of temperature change in the free atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 6305-6333.
51. Santer, B. D., et al. (2000a), Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere, Science, 287, 1227-1232.
52. Santer, B. D., et al. (2000b), Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7337-7356.
53. Santer, B. D., et al. (2003a), Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes, Science, 301, 479-483.
54. Santer, B. D., et al. (2003b), Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 4002, doi:10.1029 /2002JD002258.
55. Santer, B. D., et al. (2003c), Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change, Science, 300 1280-1284.
56. Santer, B. D., et al. (2004), Response to Comment on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes", Science, 303, 1771c.
57. Sausen, R., and B. D. Santer (2003), Use of changes in tropopause height to detect human influences on climate, Meteorol. Z., 12, 131-136.
58. Seidel, D. J., R. J. Ross, J. K. Angell, and G. C. Reid (2001), Climatological characteristics of the tropical tropopause as revealed by radiosondes, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7857-7878.
59. Seidel, D. J., et al. (2004), Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature data sets, J. Clim., 17, 2225-2240.
60. Simmons, A. J., and J. K. Gibson (2000), ERA-40 Project report series. 1. The ERA-40 project plan, 62 pp., Eur. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
61. Simmons, A. J., and A. Hollingsworth (2002), Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 647-677.
62. Smith, C. A., and P. Sardeshmukh (2000), The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperature in winter, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1543-1557.
63. Sperber, K. R. (2003), Propagation and vertical structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 3018-3037.
64. Stott, P. A., et al. (2000), External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings, Science, 290, 2133-2137.
65. Stott, P. A., G. S. Jones, and J. F. B. Mitchell (2003), Do models under-estimate the solar contribution to recent climate change?, J. Clim., 16, 4079-4093.
66. Trenberth, K. E., and J. G. Olson (1988), An evaluation and intercomparison of global analyses from NMC and ECMWF, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 69, 1047-1057.
67. Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, J. W. Hurrell, and M. Fiorino (2001), Quality of reanalyses in the tropics, J. Clim., 14, 1499-1510.
68. Washington, W. M., et al. (2000), Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations, Clim. Dyn., 16, 755-774.
69. Wigley, T. M. L. (2000), ENSO, volcanoes, and record-breaking temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 4101-4104.
70. Wigley, T. M. L., P. J. Jaumann, B. D. Sauter, and K. E. Taylor (1998), Relative detectability of greenhouse-gas and aerosol climate change signals, Clim. Dyn., 14, 781-790.
71. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (1957), Meteorology-A-three-dimensional science: Second session of the commission for aerology, WMO Bull., IV(4), 134-138.