Modeling DVD preorder and sales: An optimal stopping approach

Marketing Science

Volumn 27, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 1097-1110

  Hui, Sam K ^a   Eliashberg, Jehoshua ^a   George, Edward I ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Motion picture; Online retailing; Optimal stopping; Timing model

Indexed keywords

EID: 60849132756     PISSN: 07322399     EISSN: 1526548X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1080.0370     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Allaart, P. 2004. Optimal stopping rules for correlated random walks with a discount. J. Appl. Probab. 41(2) 483-496.
2. Bakos, J. Y. 1997. Reducing buyer search costs: Implications for electronic marketplaces. Management Sci. 43(12) 1676-1692.
3. Chintagunta, P., T. Erdem, P. Rossi, M. Wedel. 2006. Structural modeling in marketing: Review and assessment. Marketing Sci. 25 604-616.
4. Chow, Y. S., H. Robbins, D. Siegmund. 1971. Great Expectations: The Theory of Optimal Stopping. Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston.
5. Clementi, F., M. Gallegati. 2005. Pareto's law of income distribution: Evidence for Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A. Chaterjee, S. Yarlagadda, B. K. Chakrabarti, eds. Econophysics of Wealth Distributions. Springer, Milan, 3-14.
6. Dubins, L. E., H. Teicher. 1967. Optimal stopping when the future is discounted. Ann. Math. Statist. 38(2) 601-605.
7. Einav, L. 2007. Seasonality in U.S. motion picture industry. RAND J. Econom. 38(1) 128-146.
8. Eliashberg, J., A. Elberse, M. A. A. M. Leenders. 2006. The motion picture industry: Critical issues in practice, current research, and new research directions. Marketing Sci. 25(6) 638-661.
9. Eliashberg, J., S. Hui, J. Zhang. 2007. From story line to box office: A new approach for green-lighting movie scripts. Management Sci. 53(6) 881-893.
10. Ferguson, T. S. 2000. Optimal stopping and applications, http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/Stopping/Contents.html.
11. Frederick, S., G. Loewenstein, T. O'Donoghue. 2002. Time discounting and time preference: A critical review. J. Econom. Literature 40(2) 351-101.
12. Hauser, J., G. J. Tellis, A. Griffin. 2006. Research on innovation: A review and agenda for marketing science. Marketing Sci. 25(6) 687-717.
13. Jaggia, S., S. Thosar. 1995. Contested tender offers: An estimate of the hazard function. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 13(1) 113-119.
14. Jedidi, K., R. E. Krider, C. B. Weinberg. 1998. Clustering at the movies. Marketing Lett. 9(4) 393-405.
15. Jones, J. M., C. J. Ritz. 1991. Incorporating distribution into new product diffusion models. Internat. J. Res. Marketing 8 91-112.
16. Lehmann, D. R., C. B. Weinberg. 2000. Sales through sequential distribution channels: An application to movies and videos. J. Marketing 64(July) 18-33.
17. Lowenstein, G. F. 1988. Frames of mind in intertemporal choice. Management Sci. 34(2) 200-214.
18. Lowenstein, G., D. Prelec. 1992. Anomalies in intertemporal choice: Evidence and an interpretation. Quart. J. Econom. 107(2) 573-597.
19. Luan, J. Y. 2005. Optimal inter-release timing for sequential releases. Working paper, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
20. Mas-Colell, A., M. D. Whinston, J. R. Green. 1995. Microeconomic Theory. Oxford University Press, New York.
21. Moe, W. W., P. S. Fader. 2002. Using advance purchase orders to forecast new product sales. Marketing Sci. 21(3) 347-364.
22. Moe, W. W., P. S. Fader. 2004. Dynamic conversion behavior at e-commerce sites. Management Sci. 50(3) 326-335.
23. Morrison, D. G., D. C. Schmittlein. 1980. Jobs, strikes and wars: Probability models for duration. Organ. Behav. Human Performance 25 224-251.
24. Morrison, D. G., D. C. Schmittlein. 1988. Generalizing the NBD model for customer purchase: What are the implications and is it worth the effort? (with discussion and rejoinder). J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 6(2) 145-166.
25. Motion Picture Association of American (MPAA). 2006. U. S. Entertainment Industry: Market Statistics, http://www.mpaa.org.
26. Muthen, B., K. Masyn. 2005. Discrete-time survival mixture analysis. J. Educ. Behavioral Statist. 30(1) 27-58.
27. Nair, H. 2007. Intertemporal price discrimination with forward-looking consumers. Application to the U.S. market console for video games. Quart. Marketing Econom. 5(3) 239-292.
28. Park, Y.-H., P. S. Fader. 2004. Modeling browsing behavior at multiple web sites. Marketing Sci. 23(3) 280-303.
29. Prasad, A., V. Mahajan, B. J. Bronnenberg. 2004. Product entry timing in dual distribution channels: The case of the movie industry. Rev. Marketing Sci. 2, Article 4.
30. Radas, S., S. M. Shugan. 1998. Seasonal marketing and timing new product introductions. J. Marketing Res. 35(3) 296-315.
31. Sawhney, M. S., J. Eliashberg. 1996. A parsimonious model for forecasting gross box-office revenues of motion pictures. Marketing Sci. 15(2) 113-131.
32. Schmittlein, D., V. Mahajan. 1982. Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing Sci. 1(1) 57-78.
33. Schwarz, G. 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Statist. 6(2) 461-464.
34. Song, I., P. K. Chintagunta. 2003. A micromodel of new product adoption with heterogeneous and forward-looking consumers: Application to the digital camera category. Quant. Marketing Econom. 1(4) 371-407.
35. Standard and Poor's. 2006. Industry Surveys: Movies and Home Entertainment. McGraw-Hill, New York.
36. Sun, B. 2006. Technology innovation and implications for customer relationship management. Marketing Sci. 25(6) 594-597.
37. Sun, B., S. A. Neslin, K. Srinivasan. 2003. Measuring the impact of promotions on brand switching when consumers are forwardlooking. J. Marketing Res. 40(November) 389-405.
38. Wei, L. 2006. Making sense of these million-dollar babies-Rationale behind superstar profit participation contracts. Marketing Sci. 25(6) 678-680.
39. Wold, H., P. Whittle. 1957. A model explaining the Pareto distribution of wealth. Econometrica 25 591-595.
40. Wu, D., G. Ray, X. Geng, A. Whinston. 2004. Implications for reduced search cost and free riding in e-commerce. Marketing Sci. 23(2) 255-262.
41. Zufryden, F. S. 1996. Linking advertising to box office performance of new film releases: A marketing planning model. J. Advertising Res. 36(4) 29-41.