Why NATO enlargement does not spread democracy

International Security

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2001, Pages 41-67

  Reiter, Dan ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0035610916     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/01622880151091899     Document Type: Article

References (176)

1. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
2. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
3. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
4. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
5. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
6. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
7. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
8. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
9. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
10. For discussions of NATO enlargement, see Karl Kaiser, "Reforming NATO," Foreign Policy, No. 103 (Summer 1996), pp. 128-143; Michael E. Brown, "Minimalist NATO: A Wise Alliance Knows When to Retrench," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 3 (May/June 1999), pp. 204-218; "The Debate over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions," Arms Control Today, Vol. 27, No. 7 (September 1997), pp. 3-10; Michael Mandelbaum, The Dawn of Peace in Europe (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996); Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999); Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Plan for Europe," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (January/February 1995), pp. 26-42; Kenneth W. Thompson, ed., NATO Expansion (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1998); Piotr Dutkiewicz and Robert J. Jackson, eds., NATO Looks East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998); Anton A. Bebler, ed., The Challenge of NATO Enlargement (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999); and Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1998).
11. Quoted in U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 105th Cong., 1st sess., October-November 1997, p. 49.
12. Sir Nicholas Henderson, The Birth of NATO (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1983).
13. Quoted in James M. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When: The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999), p. 57. See also Warren Christopher, In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1998); and Carter and Perry, Preventive Defense, pp. 21-64.
14. Quoted in James M. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When: The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999), p. 57. See also Warren Christopher, In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1998); and Carter and Perry, Preventive Defense, pp. 21-64.
15. Quoted in James M. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When: The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1999), p. 57. See also Warren Christopher, In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1998); and Carter and Perry, Preventive Defense, pp. 21-64.
16. Steven Woehrel, Julie Kim, and Carl Ek, NATO Applicant States: A Status Report (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2000), p. 1; and William Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," Washington Post, May 20, 2000, p. A16.
17. Steven Woehrel, Julie Kim, and Carl Ek, NATO Applicant States: A Status Report (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2000), p. 1; and William Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," Washington Post, May 20, 2000, p. A16.
18. Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November/December 1998), p. 53. As President Clinton declared in 1994, "Ultimately, the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don't attack each other, they make better trading partners and partners in diplomacy." The address is available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/states/docs/sou94.htm. See also Strobe Talbott, "Democracy and the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 6 (November/December 1996), pp. 47-63. For theoretical and empirical development of the liberal model, see Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
19. Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November/December 1998), p. 53. As President Clinton declared in 1994, "Ultimately, the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don't attack each other, they make better trading partners and partners in diplomacy." The address is available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/states/docs/sou94.htm. See also Strobe Talbott, "Democracy and the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 6 (November/December 1996), pp. 47-63. For theoretical and empirical development of the liberal model, see Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
20. Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November/December 1998), p. 53. As President Clinton declared in 1994, "Ultimately, the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don't attack each other, they make better trading partners and partners in diplomacy." The address is available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/states/docs/sou94.htm. See also Strobe Talbott, "Democracy and the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 6 (November/December 1996), pp. 47-63. For theoretical and empirical development of the liberal model, see Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
21. Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 6 (November/December 1998), p. 53. As President Clinton declared in 1994, "Ultimately, the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don't attack each other, they make better trading partners and partners in diplomacy." The address is available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/states/docs/sou94.htm. See also Strobe Talbott, "Democracy and the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 6 (November/December 1996), pp. 47-63. For theoretical and empirical development of the liberal model, see Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
22. David S. Yost, NATO Transformed: The Alliance's New Roles in International Security (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1998), p. 164.
23. Christopher, In the Stream of History, p. 129.
24. Quoted in Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, p. 55.
25. Christopher, In the Stream of History, p. 235.
26. Study on NATO Enlargement (Brussels: NATO, 1995). On the Perry principles, see William J. Perry, "The Enduring Dynamic Relationship That Is NATO," Defense Viewpoint, Vol. 10, No. 9 (1995), http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/1995/s19950205-perry.html. See also Strobe Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," New York Review of Books, August 10, 1995, p. 27; and Richard Holbrooke, "America, a European Power," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (March/April 1995), pp. 38-51.
27. Study on NATO Enlargement (Brussels: NATO, 1995). On the Perry principles, see William J. Perry, "The Enduring Dynamic Relationship That Is NATO," Defense Viewpoint, Vol. 10, No. 9 (1995), http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/1995/s19950205-perry.html. See also Strobe Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," New York Review of Books, August 10, 1995, p. 27; and Richard Holbrooke, "America, a European Power," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (March/April 1995), pp. 38-51.
28. Study on NATO Enlargement (Brussels: NATO, 1995). On the Perry principles, see William J. Perry, "The Enduring Dynamic Relationship That Is NATO," Defense Viewpoint, Vol. 10, No. 9 (1995), http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/1995/s19950205-perry.html. See also Strobe Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," New York Review of Books, August 10, 1995, p. 27; and Richard Holbrooke, "America, a European Power," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (March/April 1995), pp. 38-51.
29. Study on NATO Enlargement (Brussels: NATO, 1995). On the Perry principles, see William J. Perry, "The Enduring Dynamic Relationship That Is NATO," Defense Viewpoint, Vol. 10, No. 9 (1995), http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/1995/s19950205-perry.html. See also Strobe Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," New York Review of Books, August 10, 1995, p. 27; and Richard Holbrooke, "America, a European Power," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (March/April 1995), pp. 38-51.
30. The Madrid Declaration is available at http://www.nato.int./docu/pr/1997/p97-081e.htm.
31. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
32. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
33. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
34. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
35. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
36. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
37. Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement, pp. 95-98. See also Christopher L. Ball, "Nattering NATO Negativism? Reasons Why Expansion May Be a Good Thing," Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (January 1998), p. 60. For criticism of the democratization argument, see U.S. Congress, "The Debate on NATO Enlargement," p. 84; Michael Mandelbaum, "Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995), pp. 9-13; Stanley Kober, "James Madison vs. Madeleine Albright: The Debate over Collective Security," in Carpenter and Conry, NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality; Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000), p. 348; and Brown, "Minimalist NATO."
38. Volker Ruhe, "Shaping Euro-Atlantic Policies: A Grand Strategy for a New Era," Survival, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Summer 1993), pp. 129-137; and Yost, NATO Transformed, pp. 110, 131.
39. Volker Ruhe, "Shaping Euro-Atlantic Policies: A Grand Strategy for a New Era," Survival, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Summer 1993), pp. 129-137; and Yost, NATO Transformed, pp. 110, 131.
40. Vaclav Havel, "NATO's Quality of Life," New York Times, May 13, 1997, p. A21.
41. The democratic peace literature is enormous. Important empirical works include Russett and Oneal, Triangulating on Peace; David L. Rousseau, Christopher Gelpi, Dan Reiter, and Paul K. Huth, "Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918-1988," American Political Science Review, Vol. 90, No. 3 (September 1996), pp. 512-533; and John M. Owen IV, Liberal Peace, Liberal War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1997).
42. The democratic peace literature is enormous. Important empirical works include Russett and Oneal, Triangulating on Peace; David L. Rousseau, Christopher Gelpi, Dan Reiter, and Paul K. Huth, "Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918-1988," American Political Science Review, Vol. 90, No. 3 (September 1996), pp. 512-533; and John M. Owen IV, Liberal Peace, Liberal War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1997).
43. The democratic peace literature is enormous. Important empirical works include Russett and Oneal, Triangulating on Peace; David L. Rousseau, Christopher Gelpi, Dan Reiter, and Paul K. Huth, "Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918-1988," American Political Science Review, Vol. 90, No. 3 (September 1996), pp. 512-533; and John M. Owen IV, Liberal Peace, Liberal War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1997).
44. James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Tressa E. Tabares, "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907-1990," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 3 (September 1998), pp. 649-661; R.J. Rummel, Power Kills (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1997); Amartya Kumar Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999); and Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace.
45. James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Tressa E. Tabares, "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907-1990," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 3 (September 1998), pp. 649-661; R.J. Rummel, Power Kills (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1997); Amartya Kumar Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999); and Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace.
46. James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Tressa E. Tabares, "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907-1990," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 3 (September 1998), pp. 649-661; R.J. Rummel, Power Kills (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1997); Amartya Kumar Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999); and Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace.
47. James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Tressa E. Tabares, "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907-1990," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 3 (September 1998), pp. 649-661; R.J. Rummel, Power Kills (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1997); Amartya Kumar Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999); and Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace.
48. Russian belligerence has been against nations that have not applied for NATO membership (i.e., in Bosnia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Chechnya, Kosovo, and Ukraine).
49. Russians generally have accepted the basic democratic norms of free elections and expression. Paula J. Dobriansky, "Russian Foreign Policy: Promise or Peril?" Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 136-137; and Michael McFaul, "Getting Russia Right," Foreign Policy, No. 117 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 58-71. See also Robert Legvold, "The Three Russias: Decline, Revolution, and Reconstruction," in Robert Pastor, ed., A Century's Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 139-190.
50. Russians generally have accepted the basic democratic norms of free elections and expression. Paula J. Dobriansky, "Russian Foreign Policy: Promise or Peril?" Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 136-137; and Michael McFaul, "Getting Russia Right," Foreign Policy, No. 117 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 58-71. See also Robert Legvold, "The Three Russias: Decline, Revolution, and Reconstruction," in Robert Pastor, ed., A Century's Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 139-190.
51. Russians generally have accepted the basic democratic norms of free elections and expression. Paula J. Dobriansky, "Russian Foreign Policy: Promise or Peril?" Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 136-137; and Michael McFaul, "Getting Russia Right," Foreign Policy, No. 117 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 58-71. See also Robert Legvold, "The Three Russias: Decline, Revolution, and Reconstruction," in Robert Pastor, ed., A Century's Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 139-190.
52. World Factbook, 2000 (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 2000).
53. See, for example, Anatol Lieven, "Nightmare in the Caucasus," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 145-159; Gail W. Lapidus, "Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 5-49; and Michael Wines, "Putin Cuts Forces by 600,000, Promising Military Overhaul," New York Times, November 10, 2000, p. A14.
54. See, for example, Anatol Lieven, "Nightmare in the Caucasus," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 145-159; Gail W. Lapidus, "Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 5-49; and Michael Wines, "Putin Cuts Forces by 600,000, Promising Military Overhaul," New York Times, November 10, 2000, p. A14.
55. See, for example, Anatol Lieven, "Nightmare in the Caucasus," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter 2000), pp. 145-159; Gail W. Lapidus, "Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 5-49; and Michael Wines, "Putin Cuts Forces by 600,000, Promising Military Overhaul," New York Times, November 10, 2000, p. A14.
56. Quoted in Legvold, "The Three Russias," p. 172.
57. John E. Reilly, American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, 1999 (Chicago: Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999).
58. George F. Kennan, "A Fateful Error," New York Times, February 5, 1997, p. A19; and John Lewis Gaddis, "History, Grand Strategy, and NATO Enlargement," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Spring 1998), p. 145 (emphasis in original). See also Bruce Russett and Allan C. Stam, "Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 361-382.
59. George F. Kennan, "A Fateful Error," New York Times, February 5, 1997, p. A19; and John Lewis Gaddis, "History, Grand Strategy, and NATO Enlargement," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Spring 1998), p. 145 (emphasis in original). See also Bruce Russett and Allan C. Stam, "Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 361-382.
60. George F. Kennan, "A Fateful Error," New York Times, February 5, 1997, p. A19; and John Lewis Gaddis, "History, Grand Strategy, and NATO Enlargement," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Spring 1998), p. 145 (emphasis in original). See also Bruce Russett and Allan C. Stam, "Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 361-382.
61. For concerns about Russian reactions, see Thomas L. Friedman, "The Grand Bargain," New York Times, January 22, 1999, p. 25; and Doug Clarke, "Russia May Suspend CFE Cuts If NATO Expands," OMRI Daily Digest, April 4, 1995.
62. For concerns about Russian reactions, see Thomas L. Friedman, "The Grand Bargain," New York Times, January 22, 1999, p. 25; and Doug Clarke, "Russia May Suspend CFE Cuts If NATO Expands," OMRI Daily Digest, April 4, 1995.
63. Celeste A. Wallander, "Wary of the West: Russian Security Policy at the Millennium," Arms Control Today, Vol. 30, No. 3 (March 2000), pp. 7-12; Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," p. A16; and International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 107-108. See also Paul Kubicek, "Russian Foreign Policy and the West," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 4 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 547-568. Regarding the issue of an alliance bordering Russia, NATO already borders Russia along the Poland-Kaliningrad frontier.
64. Celeste A. Wallander, "Wary of the West: Russian Security Policy at the Millennium," Arms Control Today, Vol. 30, No. 3 (March 2000), pp. 7-12; Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," p. A16; and International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 107-108. See also Paul Kubicek, "Russian Foreign Policy and the West," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 4 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 547-568. Regarding the issue of an alliance bordering Russia, NATO already borders Russia along the Poland-Kaliningrad frontier.
65. Celeste A. Wallander, "Wary of the West: Russian Security Policy at the Millennium," Arms Control Today, Vol. 30, No. 3 (March 2000), pp. 7-12; Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," p. A16; and International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 107-108. See also Paul Kubicek, "Russian Foreign Policy and the West," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 4 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 547-568. Regarding the issue of an alliance bordering Russia, NATO already borders Russia along the Poland-Kaliningrad frontier.
66. Celeste A. Wallander, "Wary of the West: Russian Security Policy at the Millennium," Arms Control Today, Vol. 30, No. 3 (March 2000), pp. 7-12; Drozdiak, "Nine Nations United in Bid to Join NATO," p. A16; and International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 107-108. See also Paul Kubicek, "Russian Foreign Policy and the West," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 4 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 547-568. Regarding the issue of an alliance bordering Russia, NATO already borders Russia along the Poland-Kaliningrad frontier.
67. For crises through 1994, see Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, A Study of Crisis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997).
68. Ronald H. Linden, "Putting on Their Sunday Best: Romania, Hungary, and the Puzzle of Peace," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 121-145, especially p. 141; and Michael Shafir and Dan Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania," in The OMRI Annual Survey of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: 1996 - Forging Ahead, Falling Behind (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1997), pp. 160-161.
69. Ronald H. Linden, "Putting on Their Sunday Best: Romania, Hungary, and the Puzzle of Peace," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 121-145, especially p. 141; and Michael Shafir and Dan Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania," in The OMRI Annual Survey of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: 1996 - Forging Ahead, Falling Behind (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1997), pp. 160-161.
70. Ronald R. Krebs argued that NATO membership actually exacerbated conflict between these two states. Krebs, "Perverse Institutionalism: NATO and the Greco-Turkish Conflict," International Organization, Vol. 53, No. 2 (Spring 1999), pp. 343-377.
71. Charles L. Glaser, "Why NATO Is Still Best," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Summer 1993), pp. 26-33; John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 26-37; and Robert J. Art, "Creating a Disaster: NATO's Open Door Policy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 383-403. For supporting quantitative evidence, see Edward D. Mansfield and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 794-796.
72. Charles L. Glaser, "Why NATO Is Still Best," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Summer 1993), pp. 26-33; John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 26-37; and Robert J. Art, "Creating a Disaster: NATO's Open Door Policy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 383-403. For supporting quantitative evidence, see Edward D. Mansfield and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 794-796.
73. Charles L. Glaser, "Why NATO Is Still Best," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Summer 1993), pp. 26-33; John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 26-37; and Robert J. Art, "Creating a Disaster: NATO's Open Door Policy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 383-403. For supporting quantitative evidence, see Edward D. Mansfield and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 794-796.
74. Charles L. Glaser, "Why NATO Is Still Best," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Summer 1993), pp. 26-33; John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 26-37; and Robert J. Art, "Creating a Disaster: NATO's Open Door Policy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 113, No. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 383-403. For supporting quantitative evidence, see Edward D. Mansfield and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 794-796.
75. The PfP, created in 1994 to develop intermilitary cooperation with several Eurasian states, already attempts to do this in several former communist states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. On the contributions of PfP members in Bosnia, see Art Pin, "NATO Program for Ex-Foes Has Early Payoff," Los Angeles Times, December 3, 1995, p. A1. Hungary's location gives NATO the needed proximity to conduct ground and air operations against Yugoslavia, the region's only serious threat. Hungary contributed to the 1999 air campaign against Serbia, as NATO aircraft flew missions from Hungarian bases, and Hungarian territory would probably have been a launching point for a ground assault. Susan Milligan, "Hungarians' Plan: Dump Milosevic, Boston Globe, June 4, 1999, p. A21; and Michael J. Jordan, "NATO Enlists a Reluctant Hungary into Kosovo War," Christian Science Monitor, June 2, 1999, p. 5. Even one observer who found that the new NATO members made important (though limited) contributions during the Kosovo operation argued against further enlargement. Ryan C. Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies: The First Test in Kosovo," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (June 2000), pp. 25-38, especially p. 35.
76. The PfP, created in 1994 to develop intermilitary cooperation with several Eurasian states, already attempts to do this in several former communist states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. On the contributions of PfP members in Bosnia, see Art Pin, "NATO Program for Ex-Foes Has Early Payoff," Los Angeles Times, December 3, 1995, p. A1. Hungary's location gives NATO the needed proximity to conduct ground and air operations against Yugoslavia, the region's only serious threat. Hungary contributed to the 1999 air campaign against Serbia, as NATO aircraft flew missions from Hungarian bases, and Hungarian territory would probably have been a launching point for a ground assault. Susan Milligan, "Hungarians' Plan: Dump Milosevic, Boston Globe, June 4, 1999, p. A21; and Michael J. Jordan, "NATO Enlists a Reluctant Hungary into Kosovo War," Christian Science Monitor, June 2, 1999, p. 5. Even one observer who found that the new NATO members made important (though limited) contributions during the Kosovo operation argued against further enlargement. Ryan C. Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies: The First Test in Kosovo," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (June 2000), pp. 25-38, especially p. 35.
77. The PfP, created in 1994 to develop intermilitary cooperation with several Eurasian states, already attempts to do this in several former communist states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. On the contributions of PfP members in Bosnia, see Art Pin, "NATO Program for Ex-Foes Has Early Payoff," Los Angeles Times, December 3, 1995, p. A1. Hungary's location gives NATO the needed proximity to conduct ground and air operations against Yugoslavia, the region's only serious threat. Hungary contributed to the 1999 air campaign against Serbia, as NATO aircraft flew missions from Hungarian bases, and Hungarian territory would probably have been a launching point for a ground assault. Susan Milligan, "Hungarians' Plan: Dump Milosevic, Boston Globe, June 4, 1999, p. A21; and Michael J. Jordan, "NATO Enlists a Reluctant Hungary into Kosovo War," Christian Science Monitor, June 2, 1999, p. 5. Even one observer who found that the new NATO members made important (though limited) contributions during the Kosovo operation argued against further enlargement. Ryan C. Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies: The First Test in Kosovo," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (June 2000), pp. 25-38, especially p. 35.
78. The PfP, created in 1994 to develop intermilitary cooperation with several Eurasian states, already attempts to do this in several former communist states in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. On the contributions of PfP members in Bosnia, see Art Pin, "NATO Program for Ex-Foes Has Early Payoff," Los Angeles Times, December 3, 1995, p. A1. Hungary's location gives NATO the needed proximity to conduct ground and air operations against Yugoslavia, the region's only serious threat. Hungary contributed to the 1999 air campaign against Serbia, as NATO aircraft flew missions from Hungarian bases, and Hungarian territory would probably have been a launching point for a ground assault. Susan Milligan, "Hungarians' Plan: Dump Milosevic, Boston Globe, June 4, 1999, p. A21; and Michael J. Jordan, "NATO Enlists a Reluctant Hungary into Kosovo War," Christian Science Monitor, June 2, 1999, p. 5. Even one observer who found that the new NATO members made important (though limited) contributions during the Kosovo operation argued against further enlargement. Ryan C. Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies: The First Test in Kosovo," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (June 2000), pp. 25-38, especially p. 35.
79. Amos Perlmutter and Ted Galen Carpenter, "NATO's Expensive Trip East: The Folly of Enlargement," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 1 (January/February 1998), pp. 2-6.
80. Author's interview with Pavel Telicka, deputy minister of foreign affairs of the Czech Republic, Prague, May 19, 2000.
81. Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
82. Art, "Creating a Disaster," p. 396; and Joseph Lepgold, "NATO's Post-Cold War Collective Action Problem," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 78-106. On the Czech Republic, see Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies," p. 35.
83. Art, "Creating a Disaster," p. 396; and Joseph Lepgold, "NATO's Post-Cold War Collective Action Problem," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 78-106. On the Czech Republic, see Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies," p. 35.
84. Art, "Creating a Disaster," p. 396; and Joseph Lepgold, "NATO's Post-Cold War Collective Action Problem," International Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Summer 1998), pp. 78-106. On the Czech Republic, see Hendrickson, "NATO's Visegrad Allies," p. 35.
85. Another argument might be that alliances spread democracy by preventing democratic members from being attacked or threatened; see Daniel N. Nelson, "Post-Communist Insecurity," Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 47, No. 5 (September/October 2000), pp. 31-37; Jacques Rupnik, "Eastern Europe: The International Context," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 11, No. 2 (April 2000), pp. 121-123. The empirical evidence shows, however, that neither war nor international threats undermine democracy. Dan Reiter, "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?" Journal of Politics, Vol. 63 (forthcoming). Democracies tend to win wars with or without allies, raising confidence that even unallied democracies can defend themselves. Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam III, "Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 2 (June 1998), pp. 377-389.
86. Another argument might be that alliances spread democracy by preventing democratic members from being attacked or threatened; see Daniel N. Nelson, "Post-Communist Insecurity," Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 47, No. 5 (September/October 2000), pp. 31-37; Jacques Rupnik, "Eastern Europe: The International Context," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 11, No. 2 (April 2000), pp. 121-123. The empirical evidence shows, however, that neither war nor international threats undermine democracy. Dan Reiter, "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?" Journal of Politics, Vol. 63 (forthcoming). Democracies tend to win wars with or without allies, raising confidence that even unallied democracies can defend themselves. Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam III, "Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 2 (June 1998), pp. 377-389.
87. Another argument might be that alliances spread democracy by preventing democratic members from being attacked or threatened; see Daniel N. Nelson, "Post-Communist Insecurity," Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 47, No. 5 (September/October 2000), pp. 31-37; Jacques Rupnik, "Eastern Europe: The International Context," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 11, No. 2 (April 2000), pp. 121-123. The empirical evidence shows, however, that neither war nor international threats undermine democracy. Dan Reiter, "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?" Journal of Politics, Vol. 63 (forthcoming). Democracies tend to win wars with or without allies, raising confidence that even unallied democracies can defend themselves. Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam III, "Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 2 (June 1998), pp. 377-389.
88. Another argument might be that alliances spread democracy by preventing democratic members from being attacked or threatened; see Daniel N. Nelson, "Post-Communist Insecurity," Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 47, No. 5 (September/October 2000), pp. 31-37; Jacques Rupnik, "Eastern Europe: The International Context," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 11, No. 2 (April 2000), pp. 121-123. The empirical evidence shows, however, that neither war nor international threats undermine democracy. Dan Reiter, "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?" Journal of Politics, Vol. 63 (forthcoming). Democracies tend to win wars with or without allies, raising confidence that even unallied democracies can defend themselves. Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam III, "Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory," American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 2 (June 1998), pp. 377-389.
89. See Mary Kaldor and Ivan Vejvoda, "Democratization in Central and East European Countries: An Overview," in Kaldor and Vejvoda, eds., Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe (London: Pinter, 1999), pp. 1-24.
90. A hypothetical lesser sanction would be exclusion from certain functions or bodies. No such sanction has ever been imposed, though some states have voluntarily withdrawn from NATO's military command. This kind of lesser sanction would carry significantly less weight because the Article 5 commitment would remain intact, and because new NATO members would likely have little interest in participating in NATO activities beyond the defense of their own borders. Also, expulsion of a state from NATO's military command would reduce NATO's ability to encourage civilian control of the military in that state.
91. The North Atlantic Treaty can be found in Henderson, The Birth of NATO, pp. 119-124. The OAS charter is available at http://www.oas.org/. On the Mercosur treaty, see Calvin Sims, "Chile Will Enter a Big South American Free-Trade Bloc," New York Times, June 26, 1996, p. D2.
92. The North Atlantic Treaty can be found in Henderson, The Birth of NATO, pp. 119-124. The OAS charter is available at http://www.oas.org/. On the Mercosur treaty, see Calvin Sims, "Chile Will Enter a Big South American Free-Trade Bloc," New York Times, June 26, 1996, p. D2.
93. The North Atlantic Treaty can be found in Henderson, The Birth of NATO, pp. 119-124. The OAS charter is available at http://www.oas.org/. On the Mercosur treaty, see Calvin Sims, "Chile Will Enter a Big South American Free-Trade Bloc," New York Times, June 26, 1996, p. D2. On the EU, see Articles 6 and 7 of the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, available at http://www.europa.eu.int/ eur-lex/en/treaties/dat/eu_cons_treaty_en.pdf.
94. The North Atlantic Treaty can be found in Henderson, The Birth of NATO, pp. 119-124. The OAS charter is available at http://www.oas.org/. On the Mercosur treaty, see Calvin Sims, "Chile Will Enter a Big South American Free-Trade Bloc," New York Times, June 26, 1996, p. D2. On the EU, see Articles 6 and 7 of the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, available at http://www.europa.eu.int/ eur-lex/en/treaties/dat/eu_cons_treaty_en.pdf.
95. Paul Landais-Stamp and Paul Rogers, Rocking the Boat: New Zealand, the United States, and the Nuclear-free Zone Controversy in the 1980s (Oxford: Berg, 1989).
96. Both France and Italy pushed for the inclusion of Romania and Slovenia in the first round of expansion in Eastern Europe. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, pp. 120-121; Karl-Heinz Kamp, "NATO Entrapped: Debating the Next Enlargement Round," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 170-186; and Jonathan Peterson and Norman Kempster, "NATO Formally Invites Three Nations to Join Fold," Los Angeles Times, July 9, 1997, p. A1. Turkey favors Bulgarian and Romanian NATO membership. Ali L. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds., Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994), pp. 214-215.
97. Both France and Italy pushed for the inclusion of Romania and Slovenia in the first round of expansion in Eastern Europe. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, pp. 120-121; Karl-Heinz Kamp, "NATO Entrapped: Debating the Next Enlargement Round," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 170-186; and Jonathan Peterson and Norman Kempster, "NATO Formally Invites Three Nations to Join Fold," Los Angeles Times, July 9, 1997, p. A1. Turkey favors Bulgarian and Romanian NATO membership. Ali L. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds., Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994), pp. 214-215.
98. Both France and Italy pushed for the inclusion of Romania and Slovenia in the first round of expansion in Eastern Europe. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, pp. 120-121; Karl-Heinz Kamp, "NATO Entrapped: Debating the Next Enlargement Round," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 170-186; and Jonathan Peterson and Norman Kempster, "NATO Formally Invites Three Nations to Join Fold," Los Angeles Times, July 9, 1997, p. A1. Turkey favors Bulgarian and Romanian NATO membership. Ali L. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds., Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994), pp. 214-215.
99. Both France and Italy pushed for the inclusion of Romania and Slovenia in the first round of expansion in Eastern Europe. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, pp. 120-121; Karl-Heinz Kamp, "NATO Entrapped: Debating the Next Enlargement Round," Survival, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 170-186; and Jonathan Peterson and Norman Kempster, "NATO Formally Invites Three Nations to Join Fold," Los Angeles Times, July 9, 1997, p. A1. Turkey favors Bulgarian and Romanian NATO membership. Ali L. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds., Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994), pp. 214-215.
100. This is similar to the objective control model of civil-military
101. Ben Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1 (March 1999), p. 15.
102. Madeleine Albright, "Why Bigger Is Better," Economist, February 15, 1997, p. 21.
103. Robert O. Keohane, "Conclusion: Structure, Strategy, and International Roles," in Keohane, Joseph Nye, and Stanley Hoffman, eds., After the Cold War: State Strategies and International Institutions in Europe, 1989-91 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993), pp. 381-406; Martha Finnemore, National Interests in International Society (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996); and Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures, and International Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
104. Robert O. Keohane, "Conclusion: Structure, Strategy, and International Roles," in Keohane, Joseph Nye, and Stanley Hoffman, eds., After the Cold War: State Strategies and International Institutions in Europe, 1989-91 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993), pp. 381-406; Martha Finnemore, National Interests in International Society (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996); and Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures, and International Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
105. Robert O. Keohane, "Conclusion: Structure, Strategy, and International Roles," in Keohane, Joseph Nye, and Stanley Hoffman, eds., After the Cold War: State Strategies and International Institutions in Europe, 1989-91 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993), pp. 381-406; Martha Finnemore, National Interests in International Society (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996); and Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures, and International Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
106. Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," p. 27.
107. Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development, p. 273; Yi Feng and Paul J. Zak, "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 2 (April 1999), pp. 162-177; John B. Londregan and Keith Poole, "Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power," World Politics, Vol. 42, No. 2 (January 1990), pp. 151-193; and Michael C. Desch, Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999).
108. Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development, p. 273; Yi Feng and Paul J. Zak, "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 2 (April 1999), pp. 162-177; John B. Londregan and Keith Poole, "Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power," World Politics, Vol. 42, No. 2 (January 1990), pp. 151-193; and Michael C. Desch, Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999).
109. Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development, p. 273; Yi Feng and Paul J. Zak, "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 2 (April 1999), pp. 162-177; John B. Londregan and Keith Poole, "Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power," World Politics, Vol. 42, No. 2 (January 1990), pp. 151-193; and Michael C. Desch, Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999).
110. Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development, p. 273; Yi Feng and Paul J. Zak, "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 2 (April 1999), pp. 162-177; John B. Londregan and Keith Poole, "Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power," World Politics, Vol. 42, No. 2 (January 1990), pp. 151-193; and Michael C. Desch, Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999).
111. Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," p. 28; and Albright, "Why Bigger Is Better."
112. Talbott, "Why NATO Should Grow," p. 28; and Albright, "Why Bigger Is Better."
113. George S. Harris, Troubled Alliance: Turkish-American Problems in Historical Perspective, 1945-1971 (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1972), pp. 83, 86-87; and Keesing's Record of World Events, June 1997, p. 41702.
114. George S. Harris, Troubled Alliance: Turkish-American Problems in Historical Perspective, 1945-1971 (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1972), pp. 83, 86-87; and Keesing's Record of World Events, June 1997, p. 41702.
115. Ihsan D. Dagi, "Democratic Transition in Turkey, 1980-83: The Impact of European Diplomacy," in Sylvia Kedourie, ed., Turkey: Identity, Democracy, Politics (London: Frank Cass, 1996), p. 127; and Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," pp. 128-131.
116. Ihsan D. Dagi, "Democratic Transition in Turkey, 1980-83: The Impact of European Diplomacy," in Sylvia Kedourie, ed., Turkey: Identity, Democracy, Politics (London: Frank Cass, 1996), p. 127; and Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," pp. 128-131.
117. Howard J. Wiarda, The Transition to Democracy in Spain and Portugal (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1989), p. 193; Felipe Aguero, Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995), pp. 308, n. 46; and Victor Alba, "Spain's Entry into NATO," in Lawrence S. Kaplan, Robert W. Clawson, and Raimondo Luraghi, eds., NATO and the Mediterranean (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources, 1985), p. 101.
118. Howard J. Wiarda, The Transition to Democracy in Spain and Portugal (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1989), p. 193; Felipe Aguero, Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995), pp. 308, n. 46; and Victor Alba, "Spain's Entry into NATO," in Lawrence S. Kaplan, Robert W. Clawson, and Raimondo Luraghi, eds., NATO and the Mediterranean (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources, 1985), p. 101.
119. Howard J. Wiarda, The Transition to Democracy in Spain and Portugal (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1989), p. 193; Felipe Aguero, Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995), pp. 308, n. 46; and Victor Alba, "Spain's Entry into NATO," in Lawrence S. Kaplan, Robert W. Clawson, and Raimondo Luraghi, eds., NATO and the Mediterranean (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources, 1985), p. 101.
120. Aguero, Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy, especially pp. 205-206.
121. Alba, "Spain's Entry into NATO," p. 101.
122. Rainer Eisfeld, "The Ambiguity of Portugal's Foreign Policy in the World," in Kenneth Maxwell and Michael H. Haltzel, eds., Portugal: Ancient Country, Young Democracy (Washington, D.C.: Wilson Center Press, 1990), p. 84. See also Albano Noguiera, "Portugal's Special Relationship: The Azores, the British Connection, and NATO," in Kaplan, Clawson, and Luraghi, NATO and the Mediterranean, p. 90.
123. Rainer Eisfeld, "The Ambiguity of Portugal's Foreign Policy in the World," in Kenneth Maxwell and Michael H. Haltzel, eds., Portugal: Ancient Country, Young Democracy (Washington, D.C.: Wilson Center Press, 1990), p. 84. See also Albano Noguiera, "Portugal's Special Relationship: The Azores, the British Connection, and NATO," in Kaplan, Clawson, and Luraghi, NATO and the Mediterranean, p. 90.
124. Douglas Porch, The Portuguese Armed Forces and the Revolution (London: Croom Helm, 1977), p. 147.
125. Eisfeld, "The Ambiguity of Portugal's Foreign Policy in the World," p. 86.
126. Richard Clogg, A Short History of Modern Greece (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986); and Constantine P. Danopoulos, Warriors and Politicians in Modern Greece (Chapel Hill, N.C.: Documentary Publications, 1984).
127. Richard Clogg, A Short History of Modern Greece (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986); and Constantine P. Danopoulos, Warriors and Politicians in Modern Greece (Chapel Hill, N.C.: Documentary Publications, 1984).
128. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," p. 126. For a more negative appraisal, see Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," p. 17.
129. Karaosmanoglu, "The Limits of International Influence for Democratization," p. 126. For a more negative appraisal, see Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," p. 17.
130. Nicole and Hugh Pope, Turkey Unveiled: A History of Modern Turkey (Woodstock, N.Y.: Overlook, 1997), p. 91.
131. Phillipe C. Schmitter, "The International Context of Contemporary Democratization," Stanford Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Fall/Winter 1993), pp. 26-27.
132. Reiter, "Does Peace Nurture Democracy?"
133. Quoted in Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, p. 57.
134. In 1990 each had zero autocracy and at least eight democracy scores from the Polity data set.
135. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When.
136. In Prague, interviews with Pavel Telicka, first deputy minister and state secretary for European Affairs; and Brigita Chrastilova, director of law and legislature for the office of the president. In Hungary, interview with Oscar Nikowitz, senior NATO adviser to the minister of foreign affairs. All interviews with the author, in Budapest, May 2000.
137. Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," pp. 28-29. For other views on the PfP, see Dana Priest, "U.S. Military Builds Alliances across Europe: Effort to Expand Influence and Security Called Risky," Washington Post, December 14, 1998, p. A1; Daniel N. Nelson, "Civil Armies, Civil Societies, and NATO's Enlargement," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Fall 1998), pp. 137-159; and John Ibbitson, "Reshaping Warsaw Pact Armies: Canadian Military School Teaching English to Former Communist Officers," Gazette (Montreal), June 6, 1997, p. A10.
138. Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," pp. 28-29. For other views on the PfP, see Dana Priest, "U.S. Military Builds Alliances across Europe: Effort to Expand Influence and Security Called Risky," Washington Post, December 14, 1998, p. A1; Daniel N. Nelson, "Civil Armies, Civil Societies, and NATO's Enlargement," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Fall 1998), pp. 137-159; and John Ibbitson, "Reshaping Warsaw Pact Armies: Canadian Military School Teaching English to Former Communist Officers," Gazette (Montreal), June 6, 1997, p. A10.
139. Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," pp. 28-29. For other views on the PfP, see Dana Priest, "U.S. Military Builds Alliances across Europe: Effort to Expand Influence and Security Called Risky," Washington Post, December 14, 1998, p. A1; Daniel N. Nelson, "Civil Armies, Civil Societies, and NATO's Enlargement," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Fall 1998), pp. 137-159; and John Ibbitson, "Reshaping Warsaw Pact Armies: Canadian Military School Teaching English to Former Communist Officers," Gazette (Montreal), June 6, 1997, p. A10.
140. Lombardi, "An Overview of Civil-Military Relations in Central and Eastern Europe," pp. 28-29. For other views on the PfP, see Dana Priest, "U.S. Military Builds Alliances across Europe: Effort to Expand Influence and Security Called Risky," Washington Post, December 14, 1998, p. A1; Daniel N. Nelson, "Civil Armies, Civil Societies, and NATO's Enlargement," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Fall 1998), pp. 137-159; and John Ibbitson, "Reshaping Warsaw Pact Armies: Canadian Military School Teaching English to Former Communist Officers," Gazette (Montreal), June 6, 1997, p. A10.
141. On Poland, for example, see Elizabeth P. Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland: Establishing Democratic Civilian Control," in Constantine P. Danopoulos and Daniel Zirker, eds., The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1999), pp. 115-136.
142. See also Jeffrey Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," Strategic Forum, No. 22 (March 1995); Dale R. Herspring, "Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist Poland: Problems in the Transition to a Democratic Polity," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 89-94; Janusz Onyszkiewicz, "Poland's Road to Civilian Control," in Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), pp. 99-109; and Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland."
143. See also Jeffrey Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," Strategic Forum, No. 22 (March 1995); Dale R. Herspring, "Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist Poland: Problems in the Transition to a Democratic Polity," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 89-94; Janusz Onyszkiewicz, "Poland's Road to Civilian Control," in Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), pp. 99-109; and Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland."
144. See also Jeffrey Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," Strategic Forum, No. 22 (March 1995); Dale R. Herspring, "Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist Poland: Problems in the Transition to a Democratic Polity," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 89-94; Janusz Onyszkiewicz, "Poland's Road to Civilian Control," in Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), pp. 99-109; and Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland."
145. See also Jeffrey Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," Strategic Forum, No. 22 (March 1995); Dale R. Herspring, "Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist Poland: Problems in the Transition to a Democratic Polity," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1 (March 2000), pp. 89-94; Janusz Onyszkiewicz, "Poland's Road to Civilian Control," in Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), pp. 99-109; and Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland."
146. Quoted in Jerzy J. Wiatr, "Military Politics and Society in Poland during the Democratic Transition," in Anton A. Bebler, ed., Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist States: Central and Eastern Europe in Transition (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1997), p. 84. Elizabeth Coughlan also remarked that "there is no evidence that the military has contested the principle of civilian control [in Poland]." Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland," especially p. 133.
147. Quoted in Jerzy J. Wiatr, "Military Politics and Society in Poland during the Democratic Transition," in Anton A. Bebler, ed., Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist States: Central and Eastern Europe in Transition (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1997), p. 84. Elizabeth Coughlan also remarked that "there is no evidence that the military has contested the principle of civilian control [in Poland]." Coughlan, "Democratization and the Military in Poland," especially p. 133.
148. Zoltan Barany and Peter Deak, "The Civil-Military Nexus in Postcommunist Hungary," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 31-49; Patrick H. O'Neil, "Hungary: Political Transition and Executive Conflict: The Balance or Fragmentation of Power?" in Ray Taras, ed., Postcommunist Presidents (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 195-224; and Jeff Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," in Bebler, Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist States, pp. 120-122.
149. Zoltan Barany and Peter Deak, "The Civil-Military Nexus in Postcommunist Hungary," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 31-49; Patrick H. O'Neil, "Hungary: Political Transition and Executive Conflict: The Balance or Fragmentation of Power?" in Ray Taras, ed., Postcommunist Presidents (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 195-224; and Jeff Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," in Bebler, Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist States, pp. 120-122.
150. Zoltan Barany and Peter Deak, "The Civil-Military Nexus in Postcommunist Hungary," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 31-49; Patrick H. O'Neil, "Hungary: Political Transition and Executive Conflict: The Balance or Fragmentation of Power?" in Ray Taras, ed., Postcommunist Presidents (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 195-224; and Jeff Simon, "Central European Civil-Military Relations and NATO Expansion," in Bebler, Civil-Military Relations in Post-Communist States, pp. 120-122.
151. Marybeth Peterson Ulrich, "The Democratization of Civil-Military Relations in the Czech Republic," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 51-75; Carol Skalnik Leff, The Czech and Slovak Republics: Nation versus State (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1997) pp 233-234; Zdenek Kavan and Martin Palous, "Democracy in the Czech Republic," in Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, pp. 78-92; and Constitution of the Czech Republic of 16 December 1992, English translation (Prague, 1992).
152. Marybeth Peterson Ulrich, "The Democratization of Civil-Military Relations in the Czech Republic," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 51-75; Carol Skalnik Leff, The Czech and Slovak Republics: Nation versus State (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1997) pp 233-234; Zdenek Kavan and Martin Palous, "Democracy in the Czech Republic," in Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, pp. 78-92; and Constitution of the Czech Republic of 16 December 1992, English translation (Prague, 1992).
153. Marybeth Peterson Ulrich, "The Democratization of Civil-Military Relations in the Czech Republic," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 51-75; Carol Skalnik Leff, The Czech and Slovak Republics: Nation versus State (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1997) pp 233-234; Zdenek Kavan and Martin Palous, "Democracy in the Czech Republic," in Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, pp. 78-92; and Constitution of the Czech Republic of 16 December 1992, English translation (Prague, 1992).
154. Marybeth Peterson Ulrich, "The Democratization of Civil-Military Relations in the Czech Republic," in Danopoulos and Zirker, The Military and Society in the Former Eastern Bloc, pp. 51-75; Carol Skalnik Leff, The Czech and Slovak Republics: Nation versus State (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1997) pp 233-234; Zdenek Kavan and Martin Palous, "Democracy in the Czech Republic," in Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, pp. 78-92; and Constitution of the Czech Republic of 16 December 1992, English translation (Prague, 1992).
155. Martin Budora, "The Present State of Democracy in Slovakia," in Kaldor and Vajvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, pp. 93-104.
156. Jacques Rupnik remarked that "Slovakia is certainly the clearest case so far of the effectiveness of EU democratic conditionality." Rupnik, "Eastern Europe," p. 126.
157. Eduard Kukan, "Slovakia and NATO," in Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement pp. 165-166; and "Slovakia: Poll: 70 Percent Support EU, 48 Percent NATO Accession," Foreign Broadcast Information Service-Eastern Europe, 98-334, November 30, 1998.
158. Eduard Kukan, "Slovakia and NATO," in Bebler, The Challenge of NATO Enlargement pp. 165-166; and "Slovakia: Poll: 70 Percent Support EU, 48 Percent NATO Accession," Foreign Broadcast Information Service-Eastern Europe, 98-334, November 30, 1998.
159. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States," p. 28; Virginia Marsh, "The End of the Beginning," Financial Times, November 19, 1996, p. 21; Jane Perlez, "Man in the News: Romania's Anti-Communist Revolutionary," New York Times, November 19, 2000, p. A3; Christine Spolar, "New Leader Vows Results for Romania," Washington Post, November 18, 1996, p. A16; and Shafir and Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania."
160. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States," p. 28; Virginia Marsh, "The End of the Beginning," Financial Times, November 19, 1996, p. 21; Jane Perlez, "Man in the News: Romania's Anti-Communist Revolutionary," New York Times, November 19, 2000, p. A3; Christine Spolar, "New Leader Vows Results for Romania," Washington Post, November 18, 1996, p. A16; and Shafir and Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania."
161. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States," p. 28; Virginia Marsh, "The End of the Beginning," Financial Times, November 19, 1996, p. 21; Jane Perlez, "Man in the News: Romania's Anti-Communist Revolutionary," New York Times, November 19, 2000, p. A3; Christine Spolar, "New Leader Vows Results for Romania," Washington Post, November 18, 1996, p. A16; and Shafir and Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania."
162. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States," p. 28; Virginia Marsh, "The End of the Beginning," Financial Times, November 19, 1996, p. 21; Jane Perlez, "Man in the News: Romania's Anti-Communist Revolutionary," New York Times, November 19, 2000, p. A3; Christine Spolar, "New Leader Vows Results for Romania," Washington Post, November 18, 1996, p. A16; and Shafir and Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania."
163. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States," p. 28; Virginia Marsh, "The End of the Beginning," Financial Times, November 19, 1996, p. 21; Jane Perlez, "Man in the News: Romania's Anti-Communist Revolutionary," New York Times, November 19, 2000, p. A3; Christine Spolar, "New Leader Vows Results for Romania," Washington Post, November 18, 1996, p. A16; and Shafir and Ionescu, "Radical Political Change in Romania."
164. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States"; and Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe.
165. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States"; and Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe.
166. Woehrel, Kim, and Ek, "NATO Applicant States"; and Kaldor and Vejvoda, Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe.
167. Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, p. 118.
168. John Pinder, "The European Community and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe," in Geoffrey Pridham, Eric Herring, and George Sanford, eds., Building Democracy: The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1994), pp. 119-143; Heather Grabbe and Kirsty Hughes, Enlarging the EU Eastwards (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 43-46; Susan Senior Nello and Karen E. Smith, The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe: The Implications of Enlargement in Stages (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 1998), pp. 19-24; and Rupnik, "Eastern Europe."
169. John Pinder, "The European Community and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe," in Geoffrey Pridham, Eric Herring, and George Sanford, eds., Building Democracy: The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1994), pp. 119-143; Heather Grabbe and Kirsty Hughes, Enlarging the EU Eastwards (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 43-46; Susan Senior Nello and Karen E. Smith, The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe: The Implications of Enlargement in Stages (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 1998), pp. 19-24; and Rupnik, "Eastern Europe."
170. John Pinder, "The European Community and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe," in Geoffrey Pridham, Eric Herring, and George Sanford, eds., Building Democracy: The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1994), pp. 119-143; Heather Grabbe and Kirsty Hughes, Enlarging the EU Eastwards (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 43-46; Susan Senior Nello and Karen E. Smith, The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe: The Implications of Enlargement in Stages (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 1998), pp. 19-24; and Rupnik, "Eastern Europe."
171. John Pinder, "The European Community and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe," in Geoffrey Pridham, Eric Herring, and George Sanford, eds., Building Democracy: The International Dimension of Democratisation in Eastern Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1994), pp. 119-143; Heather Grabbe and Kirsty Hughes, Enlarging the EU Eastwards (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 43-46; Susan Senior Nello and Karen E. Smith, The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe: The Implications of Enlargement in Stages (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 1998), pp. 19-24; and Rupnik, "Eastern Europe."
172. "Turkey's Parliament Selects Top Judge to Be Country's President," New York Times, May 6, 2000, p. A4.
173. Eric Schmitt, "House Backs Off on Condemning Turks' Killing of Armenians," New York Times, October 20, 2000, p. A11.
174. Roland Dannreuther, "Escaping the Enlargement Trap in NATO-Russian Relations," Survival, Vol. 41, No. 4 (Winter 1999-2000), pp. 145-164.
175. Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace; and Jon C. Pevehouse, "International Influences and Democratic Consolidation," paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Georgia, September 2-5, 1999.
176. Russett and Oneal, Triangulating Peace; and Jon C. Pevehouse, "International Influences and Democratic Consolidation," paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Georgia, September 2-5, 1999.