메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 2, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 1-18

A Commentary on Statistical Assessment of Violence Recidivism Risk

Author keywords

Actuarial risk assessment; Dangerousness; Evidence law; Forensic psychology; Prediction models; Risk intervals; Sentencing policy

Indexed keywords


EID: 85077712195     PISSN: None     EISSN: 2330443X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2015.1029338     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (50)
  • 1
    • 85077700851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3rd ed.), Committee on the Development of the Third Edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Washington: DC: National Academies Press, chapter 15,), (eds
    • Appelbaum, P., (2011), “Reference Guide on Mental Health Evidence,” in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3rd ed.), Committee on the Development of the Third Edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, (eds.) Washington, DC: National Academies Press,. chapter 15, pp. 815–896.
    • (2011) Reference Guide on Mental Health Evidence , pp. 815-896
    • Appelbaum, P.1
  • 4
    • 77955515778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Limitations of Diagnostic Precision and Predictive Utility in the Individual Case: A Challenge for Forensic Practice
    • Cooke, D. J., and Michie, C., (2010), Limitations of Diagnostic Precision and Predictive Utility in the Individual Case: A Challenge for Forensic Practice, Law and Human Behavior, 34, 269–274.
    • (2010) Law and Human Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 269-274
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2
  • 5
    • 84920934035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence Risk Assessment: Challenging the Illusion of Uncertainty
    • New York: Routledge, chapter 12, and,), eds
    • Cooke, D. J., and Michie, C., (2011), “Violence Risk Assessment: Challenging the Illusion of Uncertainty,” in Dangerous People: Policy, Prediction, and Practice, eds. B., McSherry, P., Keyzer, New York: Routledge, chapter 12, pp. 147–161.
    • (2011) Dangerous People: Policy, Prediction, and Practice , pp. 147-161
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2    McSherry, B.3    Keyzer, P.4
  • 6
    • 84914666362 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence Risk Assessment: From Prediction to Understanding or From What? to Why?
    • New York: Routledge, chapter 1, and,), eds., and
    • Cooke, D. J., and Michie, C., (2012), “Violence Risk Assessment: From Prediction to Understanding or From What? to Why?” in Managing Clinical Risk: A Guide to Effective Practice, eds. C., Logan, and L., Johnstone, New York: Routledge, chapter 1, pp. 3–26.
    • (2012) Managing Clinical Risk: A Guide to Effective Practice , pp. 3-26
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2    Logan, C.3    Johnstone, L.4
  • 7
    • 79957819630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Cogency of Risk Assessments
    • Coyle, I.R., (2011), The Cogency of Risk Assessments, Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, 18, 270–296.
    • (2011) Psychiatry, Psychology and Law , vol.18 , pp. 270-296
    • Coyle, I.R.1
  • 8
    • 85077721467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On Individual Risk
    • in review
    • Dawid, A.P., (2015), On Individual Risk,” in review, Synthèse. Available at arXiv, http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.5540.
    • (2015) Synthèse
    • Dawid, A.P.1
  • 9
    • 44049105256 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • “A Mathematical Proof and Example That Bayes’s Theorem is Fundamental to Actuarial Estimates of Sexual Recidivism Risk
    • Donaldson, T.,and Wollert, R., (2008), “A Mathematical Proof and Example That Bayes’s Theorem is Fundamental to Actuarial Estimates of Sexual Recidivism Risk, Sex Abuse, 20, 206–17.
    • (2008) Sex Abuse , vol.20 , pp. 206-217
    • Donaldson, T.1    Wollert, R.2
  • 10
    • 84864571331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of Risk Assessment Instruments to Predict Violence and Antisocial Behaviour in 73 Samples Involving 24 827 People: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
    • e4692
    • Fazel, S., Singh, S.P., Doll, H., Grann, M., (2012), Use of Risk Assessment Instruments to Predict Violence and Antisocial Behaviour in 73 Samples Involving 24 827 People: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, British Medical Journal, 345, e4692.
    • (2012) British Medical Journal , vol.345
    • Fazel, S.1    Singh, S.P.2    Doll, H.3    Grann, M.4
  • 13
    • 27844515992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: The Contribution of Paul E. Meehl
    • Grove, W.M., (2005), Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: The Contribution of Paul E. Meehl, Journal of Clinical Psychology, 61, 1233–1243.
    • (2005) Journal of Clinical Psychology , vol.61 , pp. 1233-1243
    • Grove, W.M.1
  • 15
    • 77955516045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations
    • Hanson, K.R., Howard, P.D., (2010), Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations, Law and Human Behavior, 34, 275–281.
    • (2010) Law and Human Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 275-281
    • Hanson, K.R.1    Howard, P.D.2
  • 19
    • 0030069896 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariable Prognostic Models: Issues in Developing Models, Evaluating Assumptions and Adequacy, and Measuring and Reducing Errors
    • Harrell, F.E., Lee, K.L., Mark, D.B., (1996), Multivariable Prognostic Models: Issues in Developing Models, Evaluating Assumptions and Adequacy, and Measuring and Reducing Errors, Statistics in Medicine, 15, 361–387.
    • (1996) Statistics in Medicine , vol.15 , pp. 361-387
    • Harrell, F.E.1    Lee, K.L.2    Mark, D.B.3
  • 20
    • 84923030215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence for Risk Estimate Precision: Implications for Individual Risk Communication
    • Harris, G.T., Lowenkamp, C.T., Hilton, N.Z., (2015), Evidence for Risk Estimate Precision: Implications for Individual Risk Communication, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 33, 111–27.
    • (2015) Behavioral Sciences and the Law , vol.33 , pp. 111-127
    • Harris, G.T.1    Lowenkamp, C.T.2    Hilton, N.Z.3
  • 21
    • 84874287266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes and Base Rates: What is an Informative Prior for Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment?
    • Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., (2013), Bayes and Base Rates: What is an Informative Prior for Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment? Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 103–124.
    • (2013) Behavioral Sciences and the Law , vol.31 , pp. 103-124
    • Harris, G.T.1    Rice, M.E.2
  • 23
    • 84874289020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Another Look at the (Im-)Precision of Individual Risk Estimates Made Using Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments
    • Hart, S.D., Cooke, D.J., (2013), Another Look at the (Im-)Precision of Individual Risk Estimates Made Using Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 81–102.
    • (2013) Behavioral Sciences and the Law , vol.31 , pp. 81-102
    • Hart, S.D.1    Cooke, D.J.2
  • 24
    • 34248149030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precision of Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments. Evaluating the ‘Margins of Error’ of Group v. Individual Predictions of Violence
    • Hart, S.D., Michie, C., Cooke, D.J., (2007a), Precision of Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments. Evaluating the ‘Margins of Error’ of Group v. Individual Predictions of Violence, British Journal of Psychiatry, 190, s60–s65.
    • (2007) British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.190 , pp. s60-s65
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 25
    • 37249073306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reply to Avoiding Errors about ‘Margins of Error,’ by Mossman and Sellke
    • Hart, S.D., Michie, C., Cooke, D.J., (2007b), Reply to “Avoiding Errors about ‘Margins of Error,’” by Mossman and Sellke, British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 561–562.
    • (2007) British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.191 , pp. 561-562
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 26
    • 39449101163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reply to “Shall Evidence-Based Risk Assessment be Abandoned?” by Harris, Rice, and Quinsey
    • 154
    • Hart, S.D., Michie, C., Cooke, D.J., (2008), Reply to “Shall Evidence-Based Risk Assessment be Abandoned?” by Harris, Rice, and Quinsey, British Journal of Psychiatry, 192, 154.
    • (2008) British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.192
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 27
    • 29544445940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual Survival Time Prediction Using Statistical Models
    • Henderson, R., Keiding, N., (2005), Individual Survival Time Prediction Using Statistical Models, Journal of Medical Ethics, 31, 703–706.
    • (2005) Journal of Medical Ethics , vol.31 , pp. 703-706
    • Henderson, R.1    Keiding, N.2
  • 28
    • 0003508724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sections 1.4 (pps. 17-21) and 3.1-3.4 (pps. 47-64)
    • New York: Wiley, and, in
    • Hosmer, D. W., and Lemeshow, S., (2000), Sections 1.4 (pps. 17-21) and 3.1-3.4 (pps. 47-64), in Applied Logistic Regression, New York: Wiley.
    • (2000) Applied Logistic Regression
    • Hosmer, D.W.1    Lemeshow, S.2
  • 29
    • 85077709509 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Part III. Overconfidence
    • Farrar, Straus, and Girtoux, New York:), in
    • Kahneman, D., (2011), “Part III. Overconfidence,” in Thinking, Fast and Slow, Farrar, Straus, and Girtoux, New York.
    • (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow
    • Kahneman, D.1
  • 32
    • 84924756938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From Group Data to Useful Probabilities: The Relevance of Actuarial Risk Assessment in Individual Instances
    • Mossman, D., (2015), From Group Data to Useful Probabilities: The Relevance of Actuarial Risk Assessment in Individual Instances Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 43, 93–102.
    • (2015) Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law , vol.43 , pp. 93-102
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 33
    • 37249017436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Letter to the Editor: “Avoiding Errors About ‘Margins of Error’,”
    • 561
    • Mossman, D., and Sellke, T., (2007), Letter to the Editor: “Avoiding Errors About ‘Margins of Error’,” British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 561.
    • (2007) British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.191
    • Mossman, D.1    Sellke, T.2
  • 38
    • 84867662261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian Approach to the Group Versus Individual Prediction Controversy in Actuarial Risk Assessment
    • Scurich, N., John, R.S., (2012), A Bayesian Approach to the Group Versus Individual Prediction Controversy in Actuarial Risk Assessment, Law and Human Behavior, 36, 237–246.
    • (2012) Law and Human Behavior , vol.36 , pp. 237-246
    • Scurich, N.1    John, R.S.2
  • 39
    • 84897355563 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Authorship Bias in Violence Risk Assessment? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
    • e72484
    • Singh, J. P., Grann, M., and Fazel, S., (2013), Authorship Bias in Violence Risk Assessment? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis PLoS One, 8, e72484.
    • (2013) PLoS One , vol.8
    • Singh, J.P.1    Grann, M.2    Fazel, S.3
  • 42
    • 84899868948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence-Based Sentencing and the Scientific Rationalization of Discrimination
    • Starr, S., (2014), Evidence-Based Sentencing and the Scientific Rationalization of Discrimination Stanford Law Review, 66,803–872
    • (2014) Stanford Law Review , vol.66 , pp. 803-872
    • Starr, S.1
  • 44
    • 85077716604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction Rules and Modeling
    • Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage:), (2), ed
    • Steyerberg, E.W., (2009b), “Prediction Rules and Modeling,” in Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making (vol. 2), ed. M. W., Kattan, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 893–897.
    • (2009) Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making , pp. 893-897
    • Steyerberg, E.W.1    Kattan, M.W.2
  • 45
    • 0345399126 scopus 로고
    • The Probable Error of a Mean
    • (1908), The Probable Error of a Mean, Biometrika, 6, 1–25.
    • (1908) Biometrika , vol.6 , pp. 1-25
  • 46
    • 67349157084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unpublished document, accessed April 26, 2015
    • Thornton, D. S., (2007), Scoring Guide For Risk Matrix 2000.9/SVC. Unpublished document, available at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/Documents/college-les/psych/RM2000scoringinstructions.pdf, accessed April 26, 2015.
    • (2007) Scoring Guide For Risk Matrix 2000.9/SVC
    • Thornton, D.S.1
  • 48
    • 84946650481 scopus 로고
    • Probable Inference, the Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference
    • Wilson, E.B., (1927), Probable Inference, the Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 22, 209–212.
    • (1927) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.22 , pp. 209-212
    • Wilson, E.B.1
  • 49
    • 77956536832 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools
    • Yang, M., Wong, S. C.P., Coid, J., (2010), The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools, Psychological Bulletin, 136, 740–767.
    • (2010) Psychological Bulletin , vol.136 , pp. 740-767
    • Yang, M.1    Wong, S.C.P.2    Coid, J.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.